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Quick Analysis

Ukraine on the Brink

Political analysts in Washington sounded much like the old commercial that asks “Is it real or is it Memorex” when it came to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, answers from the White House and State Department ranged from its “imminent” to “we aren’t sure.” Wednesday morning Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded to a journalist’s question about Russia’s claim to be drawing back some of its troops stationed along the border with Ukraine by saying “…unfortunately there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does, and what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback… we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border.” In a follow up question, a reporter pointed out that the Administration suggested an invasion could “actually come today [Wed.].” Blinken backed off responding: “He can pull the trigger. He could pull it today, he could pull it tomorrow, he could pull it next week.” Is it real or is Putin raising brinksmanship to a level unseen since the Cuban missile crisis?

Opinions from seasoned American intelligence operatives who worked inside Russia may provide a better perspective of the specific “ground facts” than those coming from inside the Biden Administration and potential explanations for Putin’s aggressive behavior. For months he has been forward positioning troops and materiel along the border areas with Ukraine. Some troops have been moved West from the Eastern District in Siberia that add to a total of over 100,000 military personnel. Recently, Russia held a large-scale exercise with Belarus, a nation-state allied with Russia on Ukraine’s northern border. Belarus has cautiously offered Putin its empty nuclear silos, which it has maintained since the end of the Cold War, in a move that could escalate the threat level. Russian propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation is actively attempting to alter the narrative to infer the West is provoking Russia to respond to a threat to it national security. 

Historically, Putin has a record of invading border states. In August 2008 he sent troops into South Ossetia and the Abkhazia regions in Georgia and has occupied those territories since that time. Their capture prevents Georgia from consideration for NATO membership according to its Charter. In 2014 Putin annexed Crimea and aided separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts belonging to Ukraine. They remain under partial Russian control, again preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. If preventing former Warsaw Pact states from joining NATO is the only reason behind Putin’s moves, then why the need to make further moves against Ukraine?

Examining the psychology behind Putin… the man, the KGB operative, and autocratic political leader… may help provide answers. Several intelligence analysts suggest that Putin simply can’t accept an independent Ukraine and his increasingly manipulative style has backed him into a corner. Another former CIA operative with experience in Moscow pointed out that at this juncture in his life Putin is looking at building his legacy as a Russian leader who reconstituted the Russian Empire and regained an equal seat at the table alongside other world leaders. Putin is very adept at knowing how far he can push before breaching the threshold that requires a response from other states and international institutions, such as NATO. 

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Politically, hardliners inside Russia including many in the military, SRV (non-military foreign intelligence agency), FSB (successor of Soviet era KGB), and the Russian National Security Council support the proposition that it is the United States’ intention to disaggregate Russia into its component parts and then slice off Siberia. This is the antithesis of the goals Putin often speaks of in formal speeches. By the early 2000’s the most extreme hardliners were influencing Putin’s inner circle. They wanted the Russian leader to take all of Ukraine and more by force. In 2014 they found partial satisfaction in the annexation of eastern Ukraine, but it also created new problems for Moscow as Kiev moved further into the West’s sphere of influence. One senior analyst points to Putin’s paranoia about security arguing that it will be hard for Putin to conduct war with over a million Russians dead from COVID and his upcoming 2024 election… but that he is willing to do more than most leaders to avoid a bad outcome. Another analyst argues that Putin had made no concessions and simply is extorting the West, like a school yard bully. Psychologically, Putin’s psyche is comfortable getting away with as much as possible. He played hardball in 2008 in Georgia and 2014 in Ukraine without suffering any significant consequences. In fact, he emerged stronger after each military action. 

Will Putin again act out again this week? Or, next? The consensus in the intelligence community appears to agree that it rests not on Putin’s willingness to intimidate, that is built into him, but on the unified strength of the Western alliance and, specifically, the Biden Administration’s response to Putin’s provocation. Recently, in an unusual move for Washington, the White House exposed some of Putin’s propaganda moves in advance. It may have thrown the Russian leader off his game. The remaining question is – was it enough push back to force Putin back down. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Photo: Ukraine Defence Ministry

Categories
Quick Analysis

The German Question

Germany is Europe’s major financial power. Does it side with its continental partners, or with their adversaries? The issue has taken on new urgency as Berlin looks to Moscow for its energy supplies.

The German economy is the largest in the European Union, and the fourth largest in the world. It has the resources and capacity to play a major role in support of western ideals and defense, but fails to do so.

Despite its enormous financial and industrial clout, and having benefited from having U.S. taxpayers fund much of its defense needs for an extensive period of time, the question of Berlin’s loyalty to the west is increasingly relevant.

Germany’s ongoing failure to live up to it’s NATO defense commitments is indisputable. According to  the European publication DW,   “…a German internal analysis for 2022 also shows chronically underfunded armed forces … NATO planning goals of having Germany … contribute 2% of the GDP within the next few years, ‘can’t be initiated or realized on time,’ under the current budget.”

Tom Rogan, writing for the Washington Examiner, , outlined Berlin’s foreign policy succinctly:  “Berlin prioritizes cheap energy at the energy-and-security expense of its European partners. Berlin acts as a de facto outpost for the Chinese Communist Party, unable to signal anything but hesitant weakness even where it wants to appear resolved. Berlin hosts Russian chemical weapons facilities even as those facilities support assassination campaigns against Germany’s NATO allies. Berlin’s attempts to suggest it is a Western partner are often laughable…new Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now seeking to surpass even his predecessor Angela Merkel’s penchant for appeasing the West’s greatest adversaries…Scholz’s government has abandoned the 2%-of-GDP basic minimum NATO defense spending target and has pulled German support for NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture. Now Scholz is taking the natural next step: calling for new appeasement of Putin even as the Russian president dangles war upon the European continent.”

The issue of Germany’s failures regarding its NATO commitments is not new. Indeed, it was a major flashpoint in the Trump Administration’s bid to re-energize NATO.

Now, however, the question of Berlin’s loyalty to the West has taken a greater dimension as its newly elected government increases its energy dependence on Moscow. The current expanded extent of the problem did not arise spontaneously, and traces its origins across the Atlantic to Washington and the bizarre actions of the Biden Administration.

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Dan Newhouse and Carol Miller, writing for Real Clear Energy note that “Before President Biden took office, the U.S. dominated energy production on a global scale. We became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017, and until recently, our exports have exceeded our imports…[however] the Biden Administration has created a power vacuum by taking American oil and gas off the market. This allows nations like Iran, Russia, and others to step into the void, providing them opportunities to weaponize markets and threaten the stability and security of the globe. The Administration opened the door for Russia by lifting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline sanctions. It also terminated the Keystone XL pipeline and banned any new oil and gas leases on federal lands – forcing the U.S. to retreat from the global energy stage.”

Ukraine, currently under the threat of an invasion from Russia, has been deeply distressed both by the Biden Administration’s energy policy and Germany’s response to it.

Washington’s curious move to cancel the U.S. Keystone XL pipeline while supporting Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline angered America’s allies in Eastern Europe. Max Hunder, writing for the Kyiv Post noted: “In giving the green light on the project, Germany and the U.S. have angered allies and put Ukraine’s security at risk…Germany’s ability to stand up to a Russia it will be heavily dependent on for gas is less than apparent.”

Poland has been equally perturbed. Foreign Minister Zbignew Rau worried that “ In giving the green light on the project, Germany and the U.S. have angered allies … Germany’s ability to stand up to a Russia it will be heavily dependent on for gas is less than apparent.”

As Biden remains entrenched in his anti-fossil fuels policy at home and appears poised to grant concessions to Russia in Eastern Europe, the German question will grow more serious.

Photo: Wilhelmshaven oil port, Germany (Pixabay)

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Quick Analysis

When Protest Really Comes from The Workers, Part 2

So far, the most violent incident involving the protest came not from the truckers, but from someone who attacked the protestors.  “‘A 42yr old male is facing charges after driving through a group of protesters that were part of the Freedom Convoy at the Legislative grounds,’ the Winnipeg Police tweeted Saturday. ‘Four adult males were struck.'”

Nonetheless, the Police Chief of Ottawa, Peter Sloly, is ready to push the panic button.  According to Reuters, “Ottawa police vowed..to crack down on an ‘increasingly dangerous’ protest by hundreds of truckers who have shut down the center of the Canadian capital…’This remains … an increasingly volatile and increasingly dangerous demonstration,’ (Sloly) told reporters. Protesters in the downtown core ‘remain highly organized, well-funded, extremely committed to resisting all attempts to end the demonstration safely,’ he added.” 

As of the first full week in February, “(p)olice in Canada’s capital said…they had seized thousands of liters of fuel and removed an oil tanker as part of a crackdown to end an 11-day protest against COVID-19 measures…’We are turning up the heat in every way we possibly can,’ Sloly told reporters, days after he said there may not be a ‘policing solution’ to the occupation. ‘We are asking for a major push of resources to come in the next 72 hours.'”

The hypocrisy of the Canadian Prime Minister and Ottawa Police Chief’s stated view of the demonstrably peaceful truck protest contrasts sharply with their support for demonstrably violent Black Lives Matter protestors in June of 2020; “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a knee during a Black Lives Matter demonstration in Ottawa…Trudeau did not speak at the event, though he clapped and nodded along with some of the other speakers, including a moment when a speaker asserted there is no middle ground on racism.”  Further, the Ottawa Police had a very different view of that protest; “The Ottawa Police Service told CTVnews in a statement the march was peaceful. ‘We respect the rights of our residents and community members to speak out when they see injustices and we understand the community’s deep pain and frustration,” they said. “Our role is to provide a safe space for people to grieve and be heard.'” 

In Toronto one month later, that provision of a “safe space” for BLM led to “at least three Toronto statues…vandalized…as Black Lives Matter Toronto protesters took to the streets demanding the government defund police… Toronto Police (stated) that there were 30 to 40 people at Bond and Gould Sts. and that ‘demonstrators are damaging statue, throwing paint at a statue.’ Minutes later, police tweeted the protest had moved to Queen’s Park Cr. W. and  Wellesley St. W. with more ‘demonstrators damaging statues, spray painting and throwing buckets of paint on property…'”

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One can only suppose that one form of “deep pain and frustration” entitles the protestor to a “safe space,” where statutes can be vandalized, while another, more directly economic form of protest, is to be considered “increasingly dangerous,” and is to be met with a “crackdown.”  

But let’s give the final word here to Tucker Carlson; “Watch what happens when actual workers, working people from working families who constitute the working class, actually come together as a group to protest how things are going. What happens then? Does the intellectual class greet these workers as heroes? Throw a parade? Listen intently to their stories? Does NPR do a sympathetic feature on them? Or, do self-described progressives recoil in revulsion and horror at the grubbiness of the people who as we used to say, work for a living? Do liberals immediately denounce them as Nazis and call for their suppression by force? That’s the question. What’s the answer? We’ll ask Trump voters what happens. They’ll know.” 

Come on and join our convoy
Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way
We gonna roll this truckin’ convoy
‘Cross the USA

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

When Protest Really Comes from The Workers

‘Cause we got a great big convoy
Rockin’ through the night
Yeah, we got a great big convoy
Ain’t she a beautiful sight?

Convoy, CW McCall, 1975

Unless you’ve been watching nothing but the “Genocide” Olympics this past week or so, you have probably become aware that the truck drivers of Canada are engaged in a massive protest.  What are they protesting?  High fuel costs?  Long working hours?  Inequitable pay scales?  Not quite.

In 2021, “Transport Canada—a department within the Canadian government responsible for transportation policies and programs…established vaccination policies for employees in Canada’s federally regulated air, rail and marine transportation sectors…In addition to the regular travel documents like identification, passports and boarding passes, a business traveler will need the Canadian COVID-19 proof of vaccination.” According to the Transport Canada website, this vaccine mandate includes truckers. 

Canada is not alone in imposing this requirement. “‘Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,’ said (DHS) Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas.”

According to the President of the Canadian Trucking Alliance, Stephen Laskowski, “The Government of Canada and the United States have now made being vaccinated a requirement to cross the border. This regulation is not changing so, as an industry, we must adapt and comply with this mandate…(t)he only way to cross the border, in a commercial truck or any other vehicle, is to get vaccinated.”

Apparently, Laskowski’s membership does not agree with his call for compliance with the mandate.

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“Tens of thousands of truck drivers have formed a caravan to draw attention to their cause and protest new vaccine mandates. The ‘Freedom Convoy’ departed from Vancouver, Canada…with some estimates at 50,000 truck drivers heading for Ottawa, the nation’s capital, to protest new vaccine mandates to cross the U.S-Canada border…The large trucks have been joined by regular vehicles in opposition to the mandate, one of several COVID-19 policy protests to break out around the world in recent months. Photos and videos of the convoy have flooded social media sites like Twitter, furthering the reach of the protest and rallying anti-mandate sentiments in the U.S and abroad.

According to the protest organizers, “Our current government is implementing rules and mandates that are destroying the foundation of our businesses, industries and livelihoods…We are a peaceful country that has helped protect nations across the globe from tyrannical governments who oppressed their people, and now it seems it is happening here. Small businesses are being destroyed, homes are being destroyed, and people are being mistreated and denied fundamental necessities to survive. It’s our duty as Canadians to put an end to these mandates. We are doing this for our future Generations and to regain our lives back.” 

Once the truckers arrived in Ottawa and began to block the streets outside the Canadian Parliament, the response from the government was predictable.   “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded an end…to a protest by hundreds of truckers against Covid-19 restrictions that has paralyzed the capital, as Ottawa’s mayor called on federal authorities for support. ‘It has to stop,’ Trudeau said during an emergency debate in the House of Commons…Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson earlier urged the federal government to send an additional 1,800 police officers and appoint a mediator to work with protesters to ‘end this siege’ that has infuriated local residents with incessant honking and diesel fumes…Watson declared a state of emergency in the capital, declaring the protests ‘out of control.'” 

Besides honking their air horns and blocking the streets, its unclear just how the protestors are “out of control.”  According to Sean Spence writing for the website, The Conversation, “The hundreds of truck drivers and their supporters who have descended upon Parliament Hill to protest vaccine mandates appear to be settling in for the long haul, with some saying they could be in the Canadian capital for months. While the protest hasn’t descended into large-scale violence, there have been several arrests, war memorials and national monuments have been desecrated and the Confederate flag and Nazi symbols have made appearances.”  Spence then launches into a hysterical, overblown comparison of the truck protest with January 6, several Islamic terror attacks, and Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of a federal building in Oklahoma in 1995 – while exhibiting a photo of several truckers playing hockey in the streets of Ottawa.   

As it turns out, Spence’s view of the “mayhem” attendant to the Ottawa protest may be…exaggerated.  “(T)here was in the large crowd not a single arrest over the past weekend. There were no acts of violence. The liberal media made a big fuss over a supposed desecration of a monument (someone peed on it, apparently) and because someone spotted a Confederate flag. To the chagrin of the left, it was, to use a once-popular description, a ‘largely peaceful’ protest.” 

The article concludes tomorrow

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC.

Photo: Pixabay

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

Despite the extensive media coverage of Putin’s every statement, there are events occurring in the world outside of the potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Some of those are taking place in India where there are mounting questions over the Modi government’s suspected use of spyware on its own citizenry and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. In 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed off on the purchase of Pegasus spyware designed by the Israeli cyber-arms firm, NCO Group. Since that time there have been numerous allegations of the Indian government using the Pegasus spyware to read text messages, track calls, collect passwords, track locations, and listen in to conversations using the target’s own cell phone microphone and camera, as well as harvesting the information from downloaded apps.

This week there are reports according to Michael Kugelman, writing in Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, that Indian media have revealed that “two cybersecurity experts told the [Indian Supreme Court appointed] committee there are “strong indicators” that the allegations are true. Although denied by the government, both supporters and their opponents see this as hurting India. The former argue that the accusations mark the latest attempt to malign India. Opponents say it is an example of the government cracking down on civil liberties.

Elsewhere in India, the country remains embroiled in an ongoing border conflict in the Ladakh region of the Himalayan Mountains near China. On Wednesday of this week the two nuclear-armed countries held their 14th round of discussions since June 2020. Although Indian officials characterized the talks as “constructive” there was no movement on either side. At immediate issue is the Hot Springs area where troops are dug in for the winter months. Overall, there are several thousand troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which extends for nearly 2,200 miles and is not demarcated. The 24-month long Ladakh geopolitical crisis reflects domestic concerns in both nation-states with neither government willing to accept a compromise solution. During this crisis reports came out accusing Chinese soldiers of beating their Indian counterparts with nail-studded rods and with some soldiers thrown to their death in freezing river water. Others Indian soldiers died from asphyxiation and hyperthermia. Despite the crisis last year bilateral trade with China topped $100 billion. But all is not well in the region.

Both countries have begun building permanent infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border indicating that this dispute is not the typical short border clash between the two but has the potential for a more serious conflict. The new garrison and airstrips suggest that the conflict may escalate into a more extensive kinetic warfare in the future. A recent South China Morning Post article pointed out that China recently deployed a long-range rocket launcher near the border. Kyle Gardner, an Sino-Indian border expert, warns that this latest development points to a “sustained, broader militarization of the LAC” and highlights the heightened risks of a small-scale conflict. At question is whether China and India’s long-standing agreement on the non-use of firearms may soon be discarded. 

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India has been highly critical of China’s handling of the Covid pandemic while China views India’s security ties and involvement with the US in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as threatening to the communist giant. On Friday President Biden announced its Indo-Pacific strategy will remain much the same as in previous administrations. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, points out that “The US will continue to muddle along in the region. This plan lacks specificity, lacks detail, and there are major gaps in terms of strengthening America’s geoeconomic position in Asia.” While the world watches and waits to see what aggressive moves Putin makes toward the Ukraine, other large and small states continue to face their own challenges. Jacqueline Feldscher, writing in Defense One, says that “In its first year, the Biden administration consistently talked about the importance of diplomacy and partnerships, and its Indo-Pacific strategy is no different. The strategy mentions  the need to strengthen the Quad, as well as increase cooperation with Japan and South Korea, boost collaboration with India, and expand the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” So far, the Biden Administration has not made much progress in this area, leaving India and other states in the region to question whether, like Ukraine, they can bet on counting on the United States in a crisis.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay

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Axis of Evil

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin held a summit meeting on February 4th, the opening day of the Beijing Olympics, to formally cement a “no limits” partnership between China and Russia. The manifesto that emerged confirms to the world that each country will back the other’s position on issues from Ukraine and Taiwan to NATO enlargement in Eastern Europe. Xi and Putin also vowed to expand their collaboration against the West. In recent years the two leaders have grown closer and expanded the breadth of their economic ties, political policies, and military integration. This week Xi called Putin one of his “closest friends and a great colleague.” There no longer any “forbidden areas” in Russia-China cooperation, according to the two leaders. From Xi’s perspective the relationship is superior to that of the Cold War era as both states have agreed to collaborate on control of the Internet, space, climate change, and artificial intelligence. For Putin, the summit may have secured China’s support of a Ukrainian invasion despite recent tough talk from Washington.

China has a long history of pronouncements about cooperation and strategic partnerships. According to Tony Monroe of Reuters, this most recent meeting is the most detailed and assertive to date. Xi’s goal now publicly stated is to build a new international order based on China’s concept of human rights and democratic values. China doesn’t have many close friends in the international community outside of Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and a few other minor states. Xi needs Russia at the moment, if only to distract the world from Chinese actions. What is even better for Xi is that the Sino-Russian power roles are reversed from that of the earlier Cold War period, with China the more powerful and rising state today. Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, pointed out this week that “If Russia further invades Ukraine and China looks the other way, it suggests that China is willing to tolerate or tacitly support Russia’s efforts to coerce Ukraine, even when they embarrass Beijing, harm European security and risk global peace and economic stability.” Xi may give support over Ukraine but will be certain to maintain balance in the bilateral relationship. The question is what did, or will, Xi ask from Putin in return.

The Beijing Olympics was a missed opportunity for President Xi to help resolve the tensions in Europe. He could have called on Russia to back down from threatening an invasion of Ukraine. Instead, the Chinese leader pledged mutual protection of their core interests – an apparent reference to Russia – Ukraine and China – Taiwan challenges. Perhaps, the Chinese leader exacted a promise of support from Putin if China made moves on Taiwan? Xi deliberately chose to use the Olympic venue to heavily criticize the United States’ resistance to China’s increasing regional power and blasted American moves to shore up its ties in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Despite the intense level of communist rhetoric that typically is discounted in the West, the weight and timing of these statements is significant and directed at an international democratic audience. China is forging stronger and more networked ties with Russia’s military, political and economic leaders in Russia and openly announcing it to the world. Beijing is no longer following their “hide and bide” time policy until they are stronger. The growing geopolitical bilateral alignment remains a relationship based on convenience but, it also is one of increasing concern to democratic nations as they become more intertwined and stiffen their resolve to dismantle the democratic West. Political analysts in Washington are pointing out that China may be using Russia to plug the final holes in its development strategy and that Xi is not unhappy that Putin is high-stakes gambling on the West faltering over its policy toward Ukraine. Fifty years ago this month President Nixon flew to China in what was to become known as the “week that changed the world.” It now appears we may be approaching a new week that could again spark a major change in the rules-based international community and the global balance of power.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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The Coming Conflict Could be Far Worse Than Expected

Constructivism is a term bantered about the ivory towers of American universities when political scientists want to attribute the behavior of political elites to something beyond pure power politics. Lately think tank types in Washington are gathering in force to “construct” these narratives and argue about how much history, language, and culture are impacting Vladimir Putin’s decision making. As the Russian president potentially gets ready to invade Ukraine with 100,000 troops stationed along the border, academic pundits are patching together information and sharing juicy details of what they presume to know is inside the Russian president’s mind. 

They appear on talk shows talking as if they possess a crystal ball of politics that can predict Putin’s next move. Yet for every analyst arguing Putin is committed to war in Ukraine, another claims Russia’s actions simply are a new ploy to gain attention and concessions from the West. The reality is the West democracies really don’t know. It could end in a diplomatic negotiation or nuclear war. We must stop debating the “if” and plan for a worst-case scenario in the coming weeks. To do less is irresponsible and to risk a regional or even global conflagration among nations possessing nuclear weapons should there be an accidental kinetic encounter among the involved parties. 

The spark that set off World War I was a bullet that assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. Although there were other underlying causes that led to the conflict, a single bullet fired at blank point range led to the collapse of a fragile peace in Europe and one of the bloodiest periods in the history of modern warfare. Five years later to the day Germany and the Allied Powers signed the Treaty of Versailles after 17 million died. Today Russia has not only “bullets” but an estimated 3,000-6,000 intra-theater nuclear weapons with a 650-mile range. The United States has no similar arsenal of low yield, short-range battlefield nuclear weapons. Some of those ivory tower pundits in Washington toady are suggesting the threshold Russia for using these weapons in battle conditions may be much lower than for the ICBM’s in the US arsenal. 

Although often referred to as a deterrent so powerful that it doesn’t get used, President Putin if we are to believe him, has publicly stated his willingness to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield. What happens if a “modern bullet” in the form of a smaller battlefield-size nuclear weapon is deployed near Ukraine? Belarus has empty nuclear silos well-maintained and waiting, and its president has offered them to Putin. James Ragland, a  bioenvironmental engineer and a 15-year veteran of the United States Air Force who serves on the faculty of the Defense Nuclear Weapons School points out that “Exercises such as GROM-2019 incorporated the use of both Russian strategic and battlefield nuclear weapons with dual-use delivery platforms.” 

Last year Russia’s Zapad 2021 exercise employed strategic and battlefield nuclear weapons and over 200,000 integrated Russian and Belarusian forces conducting a simulated attack against NATO. The best strategic negotiator is one who spends about 2/3 of his time planning before he conducts “war by other means” across a negotiating table. The US and the West needs to be better prepared. What we do know about Putin is that he is a brilliant strategist who is ruthless and a high-risk taker. 

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Not far from Ukraine are a group of Baltic states that are less mentioned as potential targets but also important to Putin. The Baltic fleet of the Russian Navy needs access to the Atlantic and friendly relations with countries like NATO member Estonia are key to maintaining it. If the United States is busy moving east to expel Russian forces from Ukraine Putin could decide to move against NATO’s Baltic Member states. Close by is Kaliningrad, Russia, home to the country’s interceptor aircraft, heavy armor and where Putin’s battlefield nuclear weapons are based. Putin may not be able to match NATO’s conventional posture, but he can exploit Russia’s battlefield nuclear capabilities.  


What is perhaps most disturbing is the result of these small nuclear weapons. Putin could deliver what is known as a “clean” detonation. According to arms control experts, if there was a 10-kiloton detonation at a height of burst at 587.6 feet above ground level, the ensuing fireball would not reach the ground. NATO troops would only be required to maneuver one thousand yards to safely move around an irradiated ground zero one day after detonation. An unprotected soldier would receive less than 50% of the radiation (.41 rems) that one gets from a CT scan. If set off in a rural area in front of troops the radiation would dissipate within a radius of less than one thousand yards in less than a minute. The same with the pressure from the blast. Although unlikely to lead to an all-out nuclear conflict, the threshold for a limited nuclear event is plausible in today’s global environment. Putin is playing a dangerous game where the first mistake could be checkmate.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Photo: Russian Defence Ministry

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Quick Analysis

Attack on Justice

America’s justice system is under full-fledged attack from multiple quarters.

The practice of engaging in riots, demonstrations, media pressure and the like in an attempt to influence the outcome of actions before a court has become commonplace.  It is, in its essence, a return to the medieval practice by trial by ordeal.  Either one has a judicial system, with explicit laws, rules and practices to determine the outcome, or one has anarchy.

Over the past several years, controversial issues before various courts have been the focus of public disorder, often before all the facts are known.  News media have essentially sparked much of this by inadequate and rash reporting.

The most infamous example involved the “Hands up, Don’t Shoot” incident that took place in Ferguson, Mo. in 2014, in which white police Officer Darren Wilson shot and killed 18-year-old African-American Michael Brown. An exhaustive investigation by the Obama Justice Department revealed that Brown did not surrender, and that the shooting was justified. The investigation revealed “Not only do eyewitnesses and physical evidence corroborate Wilson’s account, but there is no credible evidence to disprove Wilson’s perception that Brown posed a threat to Wilson as Brown advanced toward him. … It was not unreasonable for Wilson to fire on Brown until he stopped moving forward.”

Despite that, “Hands up, don’t shoot” has become a rallying cry for those who would substitute a mob mentality for the practice of justice through deliberate and fair court proceedings.

The media’s role cannot be ignored. When news outlets insult the intelligent of their audience when they claim that burning buildings, looting stores, invading police precincts, attacking courthouses, declaring “autonomous zones” and beating up passersby are acts of “peaceful protest,” they give cover to the criminals that perpetuate these vicious deeds, and encourage more of the same.

That is only one theater of attack.

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Political action committees (pacs) funded by Soros spent millions in what normally would be considered lackluster district attorney races. A Soros pac gave almost $1 million to an obscure Texas DA primary candidate, the leftist Joe Gonzalez.  As a result, he won his race. Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick criticized Soros’ involvement in the race, noting “He’s trying to change the fabric of this country.” 

Individuals are free to contribute to whom they wish, but when there is a coordinated effort to construct an environment in which laws are not enforced by District Attorneys due to the political whims of their mega-contributors, attention must be paid.

The refusal to enforce laws, and the implementation of irrational concepts such as low or no bail policies have had a devastating impact. 

Providing a career criminal with a history of violent offenses with an easy way to return to the community after committing his latest assault on innocent people isn’t a political statement.  It is an offense on common decency and public safety.

The results are obvious. Crime rates have soared. Stores are closing throughout the nation. Affected Neighborhoods are becoming retail wastelands. This didn’t happen by chance.  It is the clear and direct result of a progressive takeover of the criminal justice system by extremist activists in local legislatures, aided and abetted by district attorneys whose campaigns were specifically funded by hyper-wealthy progressive billionaires who seek to fundamentally alter the American system of laws.

Defiance of the law doesn’t just exist on the local level. When an American President, whose specific duty it is to enforce the law refuses to perform his Constitutional duty, that sets the tone for lawbreakers throughout the nation.  The U.S. has laws about how the nations borders may be crossed. Mr. Biden has wantonly refused to abide by those measures.  Like activist D.A.s and rioters, he displays contempt for the law.

Photo: Pixabay

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The Wrong Enemy

There is a stunning gap between whom, and what, the majority of Americans perceive as a threat and enemy, and what the Progressive-dominated Democratic Party and its media allies believe.

Globally, Logic suggests that the Chinese, with their meteoric increase in both conventional and nuclear arms and the irresponsible spread of COVID, Russia’s largest on the planet atomic weaponry, as well as the international adventurism of both nations, and the Taliban’s looming access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal should be at the top of international concerns, accompanied by both Moscow and Beijing’s espionage within the U.S. Domestically, the extraordinary increase in crime and the disintegration of the southern border are existential threats.

But those obvious concerns clearly are nowhere near the top of the list for Progressives.

 Biden’s proposed defense budget cut the Pentagon’s spending power after accounting for inflation. Even after revelations about Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Ca.) relationship with a Chinese spy he remains on the House Intelligence Committee. Biden continues to ignore, (and indeed, even facilitates) the massive, unchecked entry into the U.S. by illegal immigrants, including some affiliated with vicious drug cartels and infected with COVID.

The Department of Justice, the FBI, and the IRS appear to be more interested in partisan politics than the vital duties they should rightfully engage in.  It has become undeniably clear that the FBI was used by the Clinton campaign to harass Hillary’s 2016 presidential campaign opponent, and to weaken the subsequent administration of the winner of that contest. It unblushingly is abused by Attorney General Merrick Garland to concentrate on investigating parents who are angered that their children are subjected to an educational system that replaces learning with propaganda, and moms and dads who object to the sexualization of curriculum and instances of rape on school property.

The media barely reports on looming military threats. Reuters did report that Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific Ocean, but the story received little air time. The same can be said for the startling news about Moscow’s warplanes repeated incursions close to Alaskan airspace, or China’s rapid-paced moves to become the dominant military power in orbit. The disturbing news that Beijing has taken control of a former U.S. airbase on the island of Kiribati, just 1,800 miles from Pearl Harbor, has been met with media and Progressive yawns. The list goes on and on.

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The Left firmly believes in the Pogo quote, that “We have met the enemy and he is us.” New York City is crippled with increasing crime, but that town’s legislature moved quickly…to move a statue of Thomas Jefferson from its chambers. The perception of American heroes as enemies is reflected in support for the ludicrously inaccurate 1619 curriculum.  

Chicago, where the threat of dying from violence exceeds that endured by combat soldiers in some theaters of war, Mayor Lori Lightfoot moved to suspend cops who didn’t get vaccinated.

NYC counterpart Bill de Blasio, similar to his fellow progressives,  perceives the business community not as an asset but as an enemy to be milked for all that can be obtained. In that, he follows the example of authoritarian socialist regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, and elsewhere.  Indeed, the mayor has been known to quote Marxists in public addresses.

  As mayors and governors reel from the influx of illegal aliens launched into the U.S. by sex traffickers and drug cartels, Democrats in Congress, Notes the Washington Free Beacon, moved to cut the budget for Customs and Border Protection by half a billion dollars. They seek to forbid Homeland Security Investigations from enforcing immigration laws.

Ignoring real enemies and very imminent threats from abroad, while turning Americans against each other based on race, class, age or gender is a dangerous move by the Left. It is leaving real scars on America, recklessly and needlessly endangering the nation’s future.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Gap Widens Between Democrats and Citizens

Anger over the elitist goals of the Biden Administration, Democrat politicians in Congress, and those in city halls is rapidly growing.

 It is not hard to understand why the voters are unhappy. Strange decisions and policies that are bizarre and costly, in terms of both dollars and safety, are being made at a rapid pace.

In just the past month, it was revealed that the White House chose to delay a long-scheduled hypersonic missile test to satisfy Vladimir Putin, who has boasted of his own hypersonic weapons. It wasn’t a singular example. Despite massive arms advances by Russia, China, and North Korea, Biden has been reluctant to adequately fund the Pentagon. U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), Lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee, warned that “It is time for President Biden to prioritize U.S. military modernization over attempts to cozy-up to Putin and Xi. Russia and China have their foot on the gas when it comes to developing and deploying advanced nuclear-capable hypersonic systems, while this administration looks for any excuse to delay or cancel U.S. systems and tests.”

The same week that this occurred, the Administration floated the concept of providing $450,000 payouts to each illegal who had crossed the border and had been separated from accompanying minors, a cautionary move against the possibility that children were being trafficked for sex. A prominent conservative leader, Gerard Kassar, stated “Giving $450,000 in U.S. tax dollars to unlawful immigrants who crossed the Mexican border into the U.S. with children illegally is madness. Millions of Americans are struggling to get by under President Biden’s tanking economy, and his priority is making unlawful immigrants rich using their money?  If Mr. Biden and the Democrats do this, how many more unlawful immigrants will cross into the U.S. with children in tow? Can anybody count that high?”

While Biden seems eager to empty America’s treasury to assist illegals, it seeks to make it harder for ill veterans to utilize their benefits. American Military News reports that there found that there are “…roughly 520,000 pending VA claims for disability compensation and benefits, 191,000 are considered to be backlogged (defined as older than 125 days)…To help navigate that hurdle, private consulting agents who work on a contingency basis have become an effective private sector solution to this lack of this assistance for veterans.” The Biden White House is not pleased that veterans have employed a way to get the care they are entitled to. The Administration budget carries a provision that outlaws the use of these facilitators.

The wide gap between Democrats and the citizenry is not restricted to National Security, illegal immigration, or a lack of appreciation of the sacrifice made by veterans.

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Governors and mayors of “Blue” states have sided with leftist educational groups and radical unions over the good of students and the rights of parents. The most notable example of this occurred during the gubernatorial campaign of Virginia’s Terry McAuliffe, who in an unguarded moment exclaimed that parents had no say in what their offspring were being taught.

McAuliffe’s candor wasn’t the worst of it. Attorney General Merrick Garland instructed the FBI to go after moms and dads who protested against the misdeeds and negligence of school officials that endangered students, and the politicization of public school curriculum.

Many Democrat leaders in City Halls have sought to defund the police, despite a rising tide of crime directly caused by their progressive policies such as bail reform, handcuffing the ability of law enforcement to do its job, and the policy of providing “sanctuary” to illegal aliens who have committed crimes.

The citizenry will have the opportunity to voice their opinion on these policies in 2022.

Illustration: Pixabay