Month: January 2022

The latest geopolitical hotspot is a Russian-leaning country located on the western border of China in Central Asia. Putin intends for it to remain under Russia’s influence. However, in a briefing in Beijing last Friday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs took advantage of the unrest by announcing that “China and Kazakhstan are friendly neighbors and true strategic partners.” China called their 1,107 mile-long border a “bridge of friendship and a link of cooperation.” In recent years China has dramatically improved its economic and political connections in the region, purchased Petrokazakhstan, the former Soviet Union’s largest independent oil company, and built a pipeline that moves Kazakh oil to the Chinees border. By 2016, China had poured over $16 billion into the petroleum sector in Kazakhstan. 

The relatively wealthy Central Asian nation of 19 million is situated squarely between China and Russia and has, until recently, escaped the attention of most Western media and political analysts. Its territory is comparable in size to Europe’s, making it the 9^th largest country in the world and the world’s largest landlocked nation. From a geopolitical perspective it is of growing importance to China’s global ambitions. President Xi Jinping is on a quest to increase China’s influence in Kazakhstan and across the Central Asian states to wean them from Russia’s sphere of influence. Competition and cooperation in the region between the two giant nuclear powers should be of concern to all peace-loving people.

Kazakhstan produces about 40% of the world’s uranium today. Since 2011 it is ranked as the world’s largest producer of raw uranium. It also has an abundance of natural gas, oil, and various other precious metals. What concerns military analysts most is the country’s vast uranium resources. Russian-financed companies currently pay for most mining operations in the country. The raw material is transported to Russia for refinement, then returned to Kazakhstan, and finally sold to China for use in its nuclear assemblies. Following Xi Jinping’s mid-December talks with Putin, the Chinese president stated that  China’s intention is to “resume flexible and multifaceted cooperation with Russia and other CTSO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] countries in order to maintain security and stability in the region.” Xi is determined to be a major player. 

Kazakhstan’s goal is to balance its relationship between the two nuclear giants. During the recent violent protects in Kazakhstan, its president called on Russia for help. Although President Vladimir Putin was able to quell last week’s protests by sending in over 3,000 paratroopers, he remains concerned about losing influence in the country to China. From the Chinese perspective, President Xi Jinping is acutely aware that Russia is signaling that it does not want increased Chinese involvement in the Central Asian state. China is not allowing Russia to block its efforts.

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Kazakhstan is emerging in 2022 as a new testing ground for violent anti-government protests at a time when China and Russia are preparing to coordinate a security network for Central Asian and Eurasian nations to stop NATO expansion. Moscow is concerned that the recent protests resembled the “color revolutions” and that they may destabilize other regional states currently within its sphere of influence. China, which experienced its own pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the more recent demonstrations in Hong Kong also is against similar revolutions. Although these are areas of cooperation, there also is a behind-the-scenes aspect of competition which puts Putin and Xi at odds with each other. 

China prefers using soft power instruments in the region, which once served as part of the ancient Chinese Silk Route and today is part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Instability in Kazakhstan, including any anti-Chinese sentiment, could increase security concerns for Beijing. Second, China runs a huge bitcoin mining operation in Kazakhstan which some claim has threatened the country’s electric grid and led to blackouts. With the concurrent increase in the price of LNG, electricity-caused anger helped spark the recent protests. 

Kazakhstan balances Russian geopolitical and economic influence by remaining close ties with China. Beijing remains concerned, too, that any ethic violence inside the country could spread across the Chinese border area into the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and fuel rebel groups there. It was less than a year ago, on March 27, that hundreds of people staged anti-China demonstrations across Kazakhstan to denounce the incarceration of Turkic-speaking communities inside China. It looks like it will remain a hotspot for the foreseeable future as both Beijing and Moscow cooperate, compete, and vie for power and influence across the region.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Under Article 1 of the United States Constitution, “All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States.”  After enumerating a list of the various powers of the Congress, Article 1, Section 8 states “(t)he Congress shall have power… (t)o make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof.” 

Thus, it is basic to our structure of government that Congress makes the laws, and can delegate to “any department or officer” whatever power is necessary to execute and enforce those laws.

It is also a basic tenet of the US Constitution that under Article 2,  “(t)he President is responsible for implementing and enforcing the laws written by Congress.”    That is, the President does not make the laws.

In September of 2021, we analyzed a speech given by Joe Biden that same month, in which the President announced that “the Department of Labor is developing an emergency rule to require all employers with 100 or more employees, that together employ over 80 million workers, to ensure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative test at least once a week.”  At that time, we quoted Justin Haskins, director of the Stopping Socialism Project at The Heartland Institute, who stated that “(n)othing in the Constitution suggest that the executive branch can impose blanket vaccine regulations on private businesses or their employees,” and Blake Ziegler of The Observer, who said “the Department of Labor cannot simply create new laws (that’s Congress’s job). It can only enact regulations under existing laws and its authority established by Congress.”  Based upon this authority, we predicted that the Vaccine Mandate to private employers would be found unconstitutional. 

In August of last year, we also discussed the mandate for healthcare workers to be vaccinated.  At that time, we predicted that the legal efforts to halt this requirement would be unsuccessful, since “(r)equiring healthcare workers to submit to a vaccination as a condition of their employment is nothing new.” 

Not to say that we told you so, but…we told you so.

In a pair of rulings handed down this month, the US Supreme Court invalidated the vaccine mandate to companies which have 100 or more employees, but upheld the vaccine mandate to healthcare workers.  In each case, the Court was called upon to determine whether or not Congress had authorized the “department or officer” to act. 

An examination of each decision will reveal the Constitutionally consistent basis for these two different rulings.

In Biden v. Missouri, the Court reviewed a rule promulgated by the Secretary for Health and Human Services “that, in order to receive Medicare and Medicaid funding, participating facilities must ensure that their staff—unless exempt for medical or religious reasons—are vaccinated against COVID–19.” 

The Supreme Court found that “(b)oth Medicare and Medicaid are administered by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, who has general statutory authority to promulgate regulations ‘as may be necessary to the efficient administration of the functions with which [he] is charged”…One such function—perhaps the most basic, given the Department’s core mission—is to ensure that the healthcare providers who care for Medicare and Medicaid patients protect their patients’ health and safety…To that end, Congress authorized the Secretary to promulgate, as a condition of a facility’s participation in the programs, such ‘requirements as [he] finds necessary in the interest of the health and safety of individuals who are furnished services in the institution’…Relying on these authorities, the Secretary has established long lists of detailed conditions with which facilities must comply to be eligible to receive Medicare and Medicaid funds.”

“On November 5, 2021, the Secretary issued an interim final rule amending the existing conditions of participation in Medicare and Medicaid to add a new requirement—that facilities ensure that their covered staff are vaccinated against COVID–19… A facility’s failure to comply may lead to monetary penalties, denial of payment for new admissions, and ultimately termination of participation in the programs.”

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On this basis, the Court found that the rule requiring all employees of a healthcare facility to be vaccinated “falls within the authorities that Congress has conferred upon (the Secretary)… Congress has authorized the Secretary to impose conditions on the receipt of Medicaid and Medicare funds that ‘the Secretary finds necessary in the interest of the health and safety of individuals who are furnished services’…The rule thus fits neatly within the language of the statute. After all, ensuring that providers take steps to avoid transmitting a dangerous virus to their patients is consistent with the fundamental principle of the medical profession: first, do no harm.”

Further, “the Secretary routinely imposes conditions of participation that relate to the qualifications and duties of healthcare workers themselves… (a)nd the Secretary has always justified these sorts of requirements by citing his authorities to protect patient health and safety… a vaccination requirement under these circumstances is a straightforward and predictable example of the ‘health and safety’ regulations that Congress has authorized the Secretary to impose.”

Whether or not we agree with the result, the issue in Biden v. Missouri is relatively straightforward and simple.  Did Congress give the Secretary of Health and Human Services the authority to issue the vaccine directive?  The answer is just as simple – yes.  The Secretary is empowered by Congress with the discretion to enact whatever rules he finds necessary to protect the health of Medicare and Medicaid benefit recipients.  The vaccine mandate to healthcare workers is a legitimate exercise of that authority. 

Contrast this ruling with the holding of the second case, National Federal of Independent Business v. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration.  There, “(t)he Secretary of Labor, acting through the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, recently enacted a vaccine mandate for much of the Nation’s work force…(i)t requires that covered workers receive a COVID–19 vaccine, and it pre-empts contrary state laws…OSHA has never before imposed such a mandate. Nor has Congress. Indeed, although Congress has enacted significant legislation addressing the COVID–19 pandemic, it has declined to enact any measure similar to what OSHA has promulgated here.” 

As in Biden v. Missouri, the Court went through an analysis of the power of the Secretary of Labor to promulgate rules and directives to an agency under his control – in this case, OSHA. “As its name suggests, OSHA is tasked with ensuring occupational safety— that is, ‘safe and healthful working conditions’…It does so by enforcing occupational safety and health standards promulgated by the Secretary…Such standards must be ‘reasonably necessary or appropriate to provide safe or healthful employment’…

“On September 9, 2021, President Biden announced…that the Department of Labor would issue an emergency rule requiring all employers with at least 100 employees ‘to ensure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative test at least once a week’…After a 2-month delay, the Secretary of Labor issued the promised emergency standard…Consistent with President Biden’s announcement, the rule applies to all who work for employers with 100 or more employees…”

In finding this rule invalid, the Court noted that “Administrative agencies are creatures of statute. They accordingly possess only the authority that Congress has provided. The Secretary has ordered 84 million Americans to either obtain a COVID–19 vaccine or undergo weekly medical testing at their own expense. This is no ‘everyday exercise of federal power’…It is instead a significant encroachment into the lives—and health—of a vast number of employees. ‘We expect Congress to speak clearly when authorizing an agency to exercise powers of vast economic and political significance’ (citation omitted)…

“The question, then, is whether the Act plainly authorizes the Secretary’s mandate. It does not. The Act empowers the Secretary to set workplace safety standards, not broad public health measures…Although COVID– 19 is a risk that occurs in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most. COVID–19 can and does spread at home, in schools, during sporting events, and everywhere else that people gather. That kind of universal risk is no different from the day-to-day dangers that all face from crime, air pollution, or any number of communicable diseases. Permitting OSHA to regulate the hazards of daily life—simply because most Americans have jobs and face those same risks while on the clock—would significantly expand OSHA’s regulatory authority without clear congressional authorization.”

In Biden v. Missouri, the Court found the Secretary of Health and Human Services to be acting in accordance with the powers delegated to him by Congress.  In National Federal of Independent Business, the Court found that the Secretary of Labor, acting under the order of the President, and not the Congress, exceeded his authority.  In each case, the Supreme Court avoided the political implications of their decisions, and made their ruling under the guidelines established in the US Constitution.

In other words, the system created by the Founders worked, exactly as they intended.

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in New York City

Democrats have seized upon a disturbing strategy to overcome their massive handicap in the 2022 and 2024 upcoming elections.

Since their victory in 2020, they have dominated both the executive and legislative branches of the federal government, along with the city halls of most major cities.  The Party has also benefited from extraordinary support from the news, entertainment, and social media realms.

Their resulting exercise of near-total authority has led to terrible results. Having made COVID its signature issue, the Biden Administration has utterly failed to provide viable results, rational plans, or meaningful leadership. The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan has proven to be one of the worst foreign policies disasters in decades.  Its projection of weakness has encouraged Russian aggression in Ukraine, and Chinese adventurism in the Pacific. 

Democrats have misled the American public about their border policy, rejecting the very obvious fact that they have opened the boundary wide. Key beneficiaries of this abdication of a prime responsibility to defend U.S. territory have been drug cartels and human traffickers.

Immediately upon taking office, Biden successfully attacked key aspects of American energy independence, initiating an inflationary spiral at home, alienating union workers, enriching Moscow’s financial ability to fund its armed forces, and making U.S. allies, particularly in Europe, dependent on nations opposed to the West for energy resources.

American cities dominated by Democratic mayors and district attorneys have descended into chaos. As a result of policies such as bail reform, defunding police forces, decriminalization of certain activities, and emptying out jails, looting is rampant, violence is widespread, and homicides have skyrocketed. Businesses and families are fleeing these metropolises for more sane jurisdictions.

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 Facing polls that express pervasive public disgust with their current actions and future plans, Democrats and their media allies are resorting to extreme strategies to retain their power. Among their proposals: allowing aliens and felons to vote, federalizing all elections under the Democratic-dominated federal government, abolishing all safeguards on voting security, packing the U.S. Supreme Court, changing the nature of the U.S. Senate, abolishing the Electoral College, censoring the speech of their political opponents, and outright bans on some individuals from seeking elective office.

At first blush, these proposals would appear to be nonstarters with the public.  However, seizing upon a single day’s violence in one city as an excuse, a phalanx of elected officials and media supporters are using the events of January 6. 2021 as a reason to implement parts of the strategy. 

The crocodile tears over the admittedly wrong actions on a single day in a single city reek of hypocrisy. Many Democrats have excused and even supported years-long attacks in numerous locations on federal court houses, invasions of police stations, burning of shops, homes and neighborhoods, as well as assaults on innocent passers-by.  The support has been far more than verbal. Vice President Harris urged supporters to help bail out perpetrators of these foul acts when she served in the Senate. In the past, Democrat presidents have pardoned those who shot up a session of Congress and bombed federal facilities.

The use of a single occurrence of violence as an excuse to shut down political opponents has a disturbing pedigree.   The United State Holocaust Museum notes that in 1933, the German parliament (Reichstag) building burned down, which Nazis claimed was an attempt by their political opponents to challenge their power.  “They claimed that emergency legislation was needed to prevent this. The resulting act, commonly known as the Reichstag Fire Decree, abolished a number of constitutional protections and paved the way for Nazi dictatorship…The decree permitted the regime to arrest and incarcerate political opponents without specific charge, to dissolve political organizations, and to confiscate private property. The decree also gave the regime the authority to overrule state and local laws and overthrow state and local governments.”

The extraordinary, divisive and militant comments made by many in the media and the leadership of the Democratic Party sound uncomfortably familiar. The calculation appears to have been made that oppressive tactics may be the only avenue to preserve their power in the face of failed actions and unpopular proposals.  

Photo: Germany’s Reichstag, 1932 (Holocaust Museum)

The nation owes a debt to former Congressional Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who, as a Democrat and a woman evaded the massive power of Progressive media would-be censors and issued a much-needed warning about the growing authoritarianism of the Biden Administration.

Appearing on Fox News, Gabbard, who ran in the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential Primaries, stated:

“…one of the most disturbing things that I see…is… how President Joe Biden has his attorney general targeting Americans as domestic terrorists for being, quote, unquote, ‘anti-authority.’” And what is so extremely dangerous about this… is that the president of the United States is the authority …And so, if our president is targeting Americans for being, quote, unquote, ‘anti-authority,’ what they’re really saying is you are an enemy of the state if you are against the president or his policies. This is the foundation of authoritarianism. And it’s — the message that is received by people at home is if you’re going to target me for being against your policies as the president, there will be consequences, and therefore what are people to do? Shut up, step back, and fall in line. And this — this is unacceptable in our democracy and must not go unchecked.”

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Defying the authoritarian Progressive domination of the Democrat Party and its subservient media outlets has made Gabbard a vital voice in the national discussion about the overwhelming dangers of the Biden Administration’s budding attempt to criminalize political opposition by labelling it as terrorism, while at the same time failing to respond to the very real dangers from the tyrannical leadership of China, Russia, and Iran. Gabbard sharply criticized Biden’s inexplicable action of ending America’s Keystone XL pipeline, while at the same time endorsing Russia’s Nord Stream equivalent. Ending U.S. energy independence has done much more than simply causing massive domestic inflation.  It has dramatically increased Moscow’s financial ability to fund its military and engage in aggression.  Significant question must be raised about Biden’s reluctance to do more than merely discuss sanctions against Putin’s regime in response to the planned invasion of Ukraine.  That same strategy utterly failed to deter the Kremlin’s takeover of Crimea during the Obama-Biden regime. Serious questions must be raised about whether the Biden family’s financial profiting from dealings with Chinese and Russian interests have influenced his policies. Unfortunately, a politicized Justice Department will not fairly investigate that probability.  Biden is further protected by a supportive media which does its best to ignore that reality and label anyone who discusses it a conspiracy theorist.

Underlying much of the growing concern over the trend towards authoritarianism by the Biden Administration, Speaker Pelosi, and Senator Schumer is the push to end safeguards on elections. America’s saving grace is the sanctity of the ballot box. No matter how much power an occupant of the White House has accumulated, the ability of the people to vote him out of office always serves as a powerful check. Now, that is being challenged by legislation that would allow unscrupulous politicians to (without fear of exposure by the media or prosecution by the politicized Justice Dept.) to engage in tactics such as unverified mail-in ballots, same day registration, ballot harvesting, and prohibiting the checking of ID. Individual states who are repelled by these illicit practices would be prevented from taking action by measures which, in defiance of the Constitution, federalize election practices.

Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are seasoned politicians who fully realize how bad the polls are for them. The President’s dismal 33% approval and Congress’s even worse 21% approval rate clearly portend massive loses in upcoming elections. Rather than reform their disastrous policies and cease attempting to criminalize opposition, they have chosen instead to seek to enact measures which would end fair elections.

SWEDEN

The Baltic Sea does not typically make the international news cycle as it did this week when Sweden’s highest ranking military leader, Lt. Gen Leif Michael Claesson, announced that the country is repositioning its military as it is seeing increased Russian activity in the Baltic Sea. According to 

AP News, Claesson said, “We will act in different locations in Sweden, in different manners,” adding they would be visible on Gotland, a strategically important Baltic Sea island. It is located just over 186 miles from the Russian Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Earlier this week Maj. Gen. Lena Hallin, head of Sweden’s military intelligence agency, told reporters things are far from normal in Sweden and that it is incorrect to say increased tension over Russian military activity is an illusion. Countries all along Russia’s border as well as NATO Member states are concerned over Russian actions and intensified threats to Ukraine. Recognition of the increased threat is not new to Sweden. Just over a year ago the country’s Parliament approved a 40% increase in what amounts to the largest defense budget in 70 years due to perceived dangers in the Baltic Sea from Russia.  

Defense Minister Peter Hultquist the increase in the defense budget “the largest investment since the 1950s.” Sweden will add a fifth submarine to its fleet and grow its armed forces from 55,000 to 90,000 by 2030. Sweden last year adopted what it calls “the NATO option,” meaning that Sweden which is not a Member may decide to join as a security option if faced with new external threats. Currently, Sweden is part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program of bilateral cooperation between individual Euro-Atlantic partner countries and NATO. PfP allows partners to build up an individual relationship with NATO, choosing their own priorities for cooperation. Finland, which is also a PfP participant is considering future plans with NATO if the Russian threat further increases.

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BULGARIA

Over 150,000 years ago Neanderthal man already was living in the area of southeast Europe that today is known as Bulgaria. It is a small country of 6.8 million strategically located on the Black Sea to the north of Greece and south of Romania. Although it became a member of the European Union (EU) in 2007 it rarely makes international headlines in recent years. Today an “arc of conflicts, extending from Moldova through Ukraine to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, serves the Kremlin’s strategy of geopolitical control,” according to Valeri Ratchev and Todo Tagarev of the Jamestown Foundation. They point out that the Black Sea, which includes Bulgaria, is the region most severely affected by the tensions between the Russian Federation and the Transatlantic alliance.  Bulgaria however, unlike Sweden, appears more concerned with uninterrupted flows of natural gas, oil and tourists than taking sides. It is trying to maintain a low profile and not anger Russia as tensions in the region escalate according to Ratchev and Tagarev. No Bulgarian government to date has developed a specific policy toward this region nor played an active role in NATO or the EU in developing a Black Sea strategy. 

“Instead of a rational threat assessment,” they argue, “the central perspective of Bulgaria’s regional policy is the belief that the country sits at the intersection of three integration projects—European, Russian and Turkish. European (including NATO) integration provides everything essential for the country in political, economic and security terms.” It results in three consequences for the small Turkic state.  First, its economic interests dominate over political and security considerations to an unacceptably high level. Second, Ratchev and Tagarev note that governments in Sofia, may sacrifice important political values and principles to access energy resources and markets. Finally, Russia and Turkey have opposing economic meanings for Bulgaria since Russia is a source of energy dependence and a high trade deficit, while Turkey is a comprehensive market and a gateway to other regions. An unanswered question is that with tensions increasing from the Baltic to the Black Sea, can smaller states like Sweden and Bulgaria stand up to, or avoid being drawn into, a wider conflict with Russia in the coming months.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

The West just celebrated the 2022 New Year. China will celebrate its Lunar New Year Festival on February 1 this year. In between are a few weeks where no one knows if the world will become embroiled in conflicts ranging from Russian military intrusions in the Ukraine to Chinese naval activity near Taiwan. The political machinations of world leaders of late increases the risk of a regional war with the potential to morph into a global conflagration. The end game may be decided by which political leader has the political willpower to end it.

Not one to be left out of global leadership discussions, Chinese President Xi Jinping has added to the risk level recently with renewed demands that Indonesia, with the 7^th largest GDP in the world, halt all oil and natural gas development around the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea. China also is claiming the Japanese-owned Senkaku Islands as its own. What is China planning in its political and military maneuvering throughout the Asian waters? Depending on the military analyst asked it spans the spectrum from Chinese blustering for international prestige to an expanded attempt by the CCP leadership for global hegemony.

According to the publication Nikkei Asia, China is claiming Indonesia is infringing on its territorial waters by drilling in the South China Sea around the Natuna Islands. In response, China has sent Coast Guard vessels into the area to intimidate Indonesia. Tensions around these atolls has been escalating over the last two years. Indonesia sought the assistance of the UN in May 2020 to refute Beijing’s illegitimate claims. China then demanded Indonesia negotiate the issue. Jakarta refused to comply with Xi Jinping’s summons. The UN has defined China’s claim of the “9-dash line” demarcating its coastal territory as invalid under international law. China doesn’t recognize the UN determination and continues to threaten Indonesia and other countries in the region.

The United States supports Indonesia’s claim and is working with the government to build a coast guard training facility near the disputed islands. The two countries held their largest-ever joint military exercise simulating island defenses last summer. Although Indonesian officials are concerned about China’s future intensions in the area, it leadership is attempting to restrain its response to lower tensions between the two nations. 

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Tensions between China and Japan also are on the rise. “From the beginning of the year through Sunday, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have entered Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkakus in the East China Sea a total of 40 days,” according to the Japan Coast Guard. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency pointed out that in November President Xi Jinping became personally involved in what it calls an “arbitration” over the Japanese islands. Xinhua stated: “”Xi has spearheaded strategic and tactical planning and, if necessary, [is] personally intervened.” It appears China is not willing to back away from its aggressive behavior anywhere in Asia.

Michael Auslin, of the Hoover Institution, warns that the United States and other countries should not back down in the face of Chinese adventurism or its domestic human rights abuses in 2022. In a December article he says: “The 428-1 vote on the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, the second in as many years, is the clearest indicator yet of how a new era in American relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is developing.”  The current public-private sector divide over Chinese foreign policy is a challenge for American corporations and the government. It “reveals a larger fracture in American society. It’s one that presages an ongoing battle between those who seek to reduce the threat to US interests posed by our half-century-old China policy and those who are too deeply embedded with the PRC to easily extricate themselves or who continue to benefit from unlimited engagement with China,” according to Auslin. American companies profiting from China may be hard-pressed to pull out of the country even with its aggression toward American friends and allies in the region. Austin says that “In the topsy-turvy world of US-China relations… even a commonsense attempt to deny Beijing its blood profits becomes entangled in quarterly bottom lines and distasteful horse trading.” At some point the US will have to decide the importance of its Asian alliances and business profits in comparison to curtailing to rise of an anti-democratic Chinese hegemon.

Photo: China Defence Ministry

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Is Putin hiding his plans in plain sight? According to Niall Ferguson, Putin is going to war in the Ukraine. He calls it the opposite of a surprise attack. Last July in an extensive essay covering the topic, Putin wrote that there is a unity between the Ukrainians and Russian people and that any independence was an unsustainable anomaly. In recent months Putin has written and spoken about crossing “red lines” and the implication for the Ukrainian people. As recently as the end of November Putin declared that “if some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine … we will have to then create something similar in relation to those who threaten us.” Last month Putin made six demands of the West, including a requirement that NATO must not accept new members and that the US stay out of Russia’s way.

Ferguson suggests that Putin’s demands, in aggregate, equate to a new Yalta-style agreement and erode the security of the former Warsaw Pact countries. During Putin’s traditional end of the year press conference, he was asked by a reporter if he was angry. Putin quoted the 19th-century tsarist foreign minister Prince Gorchakov by saying: “Russia is not angry, it is concentrating” — as in “concentrating its forces.” The question some in Washington are asking is how far is Putin willing to go. Is the Russian leader intent on reinventing a Soviet style state or does he see himself as a modern day Peter the Great. Indications are that Putin is following in the footsteps of the 17^th century Tzarist leader. 

“Putin does not need to go to war in the style of 1939, with columns of tanks rumbling across the Ukrainian fields. A full-scale land invasion is just one of his options. He could also launch an amphibious assault on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, or a precision bombing and missile campaign against key Ukrainian targets. He could seize additional territory in Ukraine’s eastern region by ramping up the weaponry of its militias in the region. Or he could launch large-scale cyberattacks, crippling Ukrainian communications and infrastructure,” according to Ferguson. 

If recent military actions in 2014 in Ukraine and 20215 in Syria are any indication of Russian modus operandi, then the world can expect to see a slow and steady increase in its miliary activity, not a large-scale invasion. In August and December 2021, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sought to join the EU and NATO as a Member country. No one in the West responded with an invitation. As long as Russia occupies Ukrainian territory Kiev, despite its desire, cannot qualify for NATO membership.

Putin knows that according to NATO rules, to join the Alliance, nations are expected to respect the values of the North Atlantic Treaty, and to meet certain political, economic and military criteria, set out in the Alliance’s 1995 Study on Enlargement. These criteria include a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; fair treatment of minority populations; a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully; an ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.

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Exactly four weeks ago, President Biden publicly admitted that the United States will not send troops to back up the Ukrainian government should Russia decide to invade. According to a senior State Department official testifying in a vaguely worded statement before Congress in December, the US would use sanctions to isolate “Russia completely from the global financial system.” Left unanswered was how the US would go about the task. Sanctions would impact the US as well as Russia. Ferguson points out that “Russia is aware of this, particularly after 2018 sanctions on the aluminum company United Co. Rusal International PJSC shocked global aluminum markets and forced the U.S. to backtrack.” While the US and Europe make bold statements about potential actions should Putin make moves on Ukraine “The weakest link in the West’s strategy is, of course, the dependence of the European Union on Russian natural gas shipments, which accounted for 43% of the EU’s total gas imports in 2020,” according to Ferguson. 

President Biden’s New Year’s Eve call with Putin did little to quash fears of future Russian military action against Ukraine. With 100,000 Russian troops forward-based at the border, there is little doubt as we enter 2022 that Putin is not going to heed Biden’s suggestion that he deescalate the tense situation. According to Joseph Clark and Ben Wolfgang, writing in the Washington Times, “U.S. officials acknowledged late Thursday that there may be “areas where agreements may be impossible,” but they held out hope that the Jan. 10 talks in Geneva could produce a resolution.”

That hope looks as bleak as a Moscow winter.

Photo: Russian Defence Ministry

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its presentation of the Department of Defense Report on China’s military power.

THE PLA’S GROWING GLOBAL PRESENCE

• CCP leaders believe that the PRC’s global activities, including the PLA’s growing global presence, are necessary to create an international environment conducive to China’s national rejuvenation.
•  The CCP has tasked the PLA to develop the capability to project power outside China’s borders and immediate periphery to secure the PRC’s growing overseas interests and advance its foreign policy goals.

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China’s Global Military Activities

• The PRC has increasingly determined that its armed forces should take a more active role in advancing its foreign policy goals. In 2020, a revision to the National Defense Law tasked the PLA with defending “overseas development interests,” further cementing the PLA’s involvement in the PRC’s global economic and diplomatic activities.
• As the PRC’s overseas interests have grown over the past two decades, the Party’s leaders have increasingly pushed the PLA to think about how it will develop the capabilities to operate beyond China’s borders and its immediate periphery to advance and defend these interests. This has led to the PRC’s greater willingness to use military coercion—and inducements—to advance its global security and development interests.
• In 2020, the PLA continued to normalize its presence overseas and build closer ties to foreign militaries, primarily through COVID-19 related aid.

                                                      PLA’s Overseas Basing and Access

•  The PRC is seeking to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances.
•  Beyond its base in Djibouti, the PRC is pursuing additional military facilities to support naval, air, ground, cyber, and space power projection. The PRC has likely considered a number of countries, including Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan, as locations for PLA facilities.
•   A global PLA military logistics network and PLA military facilities could both interfere with U.S. military operations and support offensive operations against the United States as the PRC’s global military objectives evolve.

The PRC’s Influence Operations

• The PRC conducts influence operations, which target cultural institutions, media organizations, business, academic, and policy communities in the United States, other countries, and international institutions, to achieve outcomes favorable to its strategic objectives.
•  The CCP seeks to condition domestic, foreign, and multilateral political establishments and public opinion to accept Beijing’s narratives and remove obstacles preventing attainment of goals.
•  CCP leaders probably consider open democracies, including the United States, as more susceptible to influence operations than other types of governments.
•  The PLA has emphasized the development of its “Three Warfares” concept— comprised of psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare—in its operational planning since at least 2003. The PLA will likely continue to develop its digital influence capabilities by incorporating advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the quality and deniability of its messaging

RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY FOR FORCE MODERNIZATION

•  The PRC’s long-term goal is to create an entirely self-reliant defense-industrial sector—fused with a strong civilian industrial and technology sector—that can meet the PLA’s needs for modern military capabilities.
•  The PRC has mobilized vast resources in support of its defense modernization, including the implementation of its Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) Development Strategy, as well as espionage activities to acquire sensitive, dual-use, and military grade equipment. The PRC has substantially reorganized its defense-industrial sector to improve weapon system research, development, acquisition, testing, evaluation, and production.
• In 2021, the PRC announced its annual military budget would increase by 6.8 percent, continuing more than 20 years of annual defense spending increases and sustaining its position as the second-largest military spender in the world. The PRC’s published military budget omits several major categories of expenditures and its actual militaryrelated spending is higher than what it states in its official budget.

Science and Technology Goals Supporting Military Modernization

• The PRC has continued its aggressive, top-level push to master advanced technologies and become a global innovation superpower. The PRC seeks to dominate technologies associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution; this push directly supports the PLA’s ambitious modernization efforts and its goal of becoming a “world-class” military capable of “intelligentized” warfare.
•  The PRC continues its pursuit of leadership in key technologies with significant military potential, such as AI, autonomous systems, advanced computing, quantum information sciences, biotechnology, and advanced materials and manufacturing. As evidenced by the country’s recent accomplishments in space exploration and other fields, China stands at, or near, the frontier of numerous advanced technologies.
•  The 14th Five-Year Plan maintains the PRC’s focus on technological independence and indigenous innovation in fields associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
• As of 2020, the PLA has funded multiple AI projects that focus on applications including machine learning for strategic and tactical recommendations, AI-enabled wargaming for training, and social media analysis.

Foreign Technology Acquisition

• The PRC uses imports, foreign investments, commercial joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, and industrial and technical espionage to help achieve its military modernization goals.
•  The PRC is investing in and seeking to acquire technologies that will be foundational for future commercial and military innovations including AI, robotics, autonomous vehicles, quantum information sciences, augmented and virtual reality, financial technology, and biotechnology. These technologies blur the line demarcating commercial versus military use.

U.S.-PRC DEFENSE CONTACTS AND EXCHANGES IN 2020

• DoD’s defense contacts and exchanges with the PRC in 2020 prioritized crisis prevention and management, risk reduction, and limited cooperation in areas where national interests aligned.
•  In 2020, U.S.-PRC defense relations focused on building a framework with the PLA to advance DoD’s objective to build a constructive, stable, and results-oriented defense relationship with the PLA. The Policy Dialogue System framework sought greater stability by prioritizing policy dialogue channels and strengthening mechanisms to prevent and manage crisis and reduce operational risk. Chinese Rocket Forces (Chinese Defence Ministry photo)

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its presentation of the Pentagon report on China’s military power

MISSIONS AND TASKS OF CHINA’S ARMED FORCES IN THE “NEW ERA”

• With a force that totals approximately two million personnel in the regular forces, the PLA has sought to modernize its capabilities and improve its proficiencies across all warfare domains so that as a joint force it can conduct the range of land, air, and maritime operations as well as space, counterspace, electronic warfare (EW), and cyber operations.
• The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen the PRC’s ability to “fight and win wars” against a “strong enemy (强敌)” [a likely euphemism for the United States], coerce Taiwan and rival claimants in territorial disputes, counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC’s periphery, and project power globally.
• In 2020, the PLA continued to make progress implementing major structural reforms, fielding modern indigenous systems, building readiness, and strengthening its competency to conduct joint operations.

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Developments in the PLA’s Modernization and Reform

• In November 2020, a PRC Defense Ministry spokesperson stated that the PLA accomplished its modernization milestone to “generally achieve mechanization” in 2020 that was previously set by CCP leadership. The goal of mechanization can be broadly understood as the PLA seeking to modernize its weapons and equipment so they can be networked into “systems of systems” and utilize more advanced technologies suitable for “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare.
• The People’s Liberation Army Army (PLAA) has approximately 975,000 activeduty personnel in combat units. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, border clashes with India, and other significant events in 2020, the PLAA accelerated its training and fielding of equipment from the already fast pace of recent years. The PLAA also strove to increase the realism of its training and the effectiveness of Opposition Force (OPFOR) units.
• The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of approximately 355 ships and submarines, including approximately more than 145 major surface combatants. As of 2020, the PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-role platforms. In the near-term, the PLAN will have the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles, notably enhancing the PRC’s global power projection capabilities. The PRC is enhancing its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities and competencies to protect the PLAN’s aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines.
• The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN Aviation together constitute the largest aviation force in the region and the third largest in the world, with over 2,800 total aircraft (not including trainer variants or UAVs) of which approximately 2,250 are combat aircraft (including fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers, multi-mission tactical, and attack aircraft).In October 2019, the PRC signaled the return of the airborne leg of its nuclear triad after the PLAAF publicly revealed the H-6N as its first nuclear-capable air-to-air refuelable bomber.
• The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) organizes, mans, trains, and equips the PRC’s strategic land-based nuclear and conventional missile forces as well as associated support forces and missile bases. In 2020, the PLARF advanced its longterm modernization plans to enhance its “strategic deterrence” capabilities.
• ‒ The PRC is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production, partially due to the incorporation of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. The PRC has commenced building at least three solid-fueled ICBM silo fields, which will cumulatively contain hundreds of new ICBM silos.
• ‒ The PLARF continues to grow its inventory of road-mobile DF-26 intermediaterange ballistic missiles (IRBMs), which are capable of conducting both conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets.
•  ‒ In 2020, the PLARF began to field its first operational hypersonic weapons system, the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) capable medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).
• The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) is a theater command-level organization established to centralize the PLA’s strategic space, cyber, electronic, information, communications, and psychological warfare missions and capabilities. The SSF oversees two deputy theater command-level departments: the Space Systems Department responsible for military space operations, and the Network Systems Department responsible for information operations (IO), which includes technical reconnaissance, EW, cyber warfare, and psychological operations.
• ‒ PRC continues to develop counterspace capabilities—including direct ascent, coorbital, electronic warfare, and directed energy capabilities—that can contest or deny an adversary’s access to and operations in the space domain during a crisis or conflict.
•  ‒ The PRC’s space enterprise continues to mature rapidly and Beijing has devoted significant resources to growing all aspects of its space program, from military space applications to civil applications such as profit-generating launches, scientific endeavors, and space exploration. The PRC is employing more sophisticated satellite operations and is probably testing dual-use technologies in space that could be applied to counterspace missions.
• Military Readiness: The CMC’s focus is on improving the PLA’s combat readiness and the guidance issued by senior leaders is increasingly evident in the PLA’s training and exercises. The PLA is training to “fight and win” through increasingly realistic combat training that uses dedicated “blue force” opponents and other elements to improve realism. Despite initial delays and cancellations in military training, exercises, research, and recruitment in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, impact to the overall readiness of the PLA remains minimal.

Capabilities for Counter Intervention and Power Projection

• The PLA has fielded, and is further developing, capabilities to provide options for the PRC to attempt to dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency. U.S. defense planners often refer to these collective capabilities as anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
• The PLA’s A2/AD capabilities are to date the most robust within the First Island Chain, although the PRC is beginning to field significant capabilities capable of conducting operations out to the Second Island Chain and seeks to strengthen its capabilities to reach farther into the Pacific Ocean and throughout the globe.
• In addition to strike, air and missile defense, anti-surface and anti-submarine capabilities improvements, the PRC is focusing on information, cyber, and space and counterspace operations. The PLA’s focus on an integrated approach to the cyber domain using advanced technologies likely will lead to the PLA improving its ability to conduct cyber operations over the next several years.

Nuclear Capabilities

• Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces.
•  The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces.
•  The PRC is also supporting this expansion by increasing its capacity to produce and separate plutonium by constructing fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities.
•  The accelerating pace of the PRC’s nuclear expansion may enable the PRC to have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027. The PRC likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020.
•  The PRC has possibly already established a nascent “nuclear triad” with the development of a nuclear capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and improvement of its ground and sea-based nuclear capabilities.
•  New developments in 2020 further suggest that the PRC intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo-based force.

Chemical and Biological Research

• The PRC has engaged in biological activities with potential dual-use applications, which raise concerns regarding its compliance with the Biological and Toxins Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
•  Studies conducted at PRC military medical institutions discussed identifying, testing, and characterizing diverse families of potent toxins with dual-use applications.
•  Based on available information, the United States cannot certify that the PRC has met its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) due to concerns regarding the PRC’s research of pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs) and toxins with potential dual-use applications.

Photo: China fighter plane (Chinese Defense Ministry photo)

The Report concludes tomorrow

The rapid rise of China’s military power, its alliance with Russia, and its aggressive use of its new found capabilities, renders it the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. Over the next three days, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government will present the complete report by the U.S. Department of Defense on Beijing’s highly advanced armed forces.

The PRC’s national strategy to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 is deeply integrated with its ambitions to strengthen the PLA. In 2017, General Secretary Xi Jinping laid out two PLA modernization goals during his speech to the 19th Party Congress: to “basically complete” PLA modernization by 2035 and to transform the PLA into a “world class” military by 2049. Throughout 2020, the PLA continued to pursue its ambitious modernization objectives, refine major organizational reforms, and improve its combat readiness in line with those goals. This includes the PLA developing the capabilities to conduct joint long-range precision strikes across domains, increasingly sophisticated space, counterspace, and cyber capabilities, and accelerating the large-scale expansion of its nuclear forces. In 2020, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a new milestone for PLA modernization in 2027 broadly understood as the modernization of the PLA’s capabilities to be networked into a system of systems for “intelligentized” warfare. If realized, the PLA’s 2027 modernization goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency.

As the PRC continues to marshal all elements of its national power toward its centenary goals in 2049, DoD’s annual report strives to provide an authoritative assessment of the PRC’s strategic objectives. The report highlights the comprehensive scale of the CCP’s governance system, whereby the PLA’s modernization serves as a crucial component of a national system galvanized to achieve the PRC’s national strategy. The PRC’s strategy to achieve “national rejuvenation” is not limited to domestic efforts. This strategy entails efforts to change international conditions to suit the CCP’s concept of a “community of common destiny.” This report illustrates the importance of meeting the pacing challenge presented by the PRC’s increasingly capable military and its global ambitions.

UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S STRATEGY

China’s National Strategy

• The PRC’s strategy aims to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 to match or surpass U.S. global influence and power, displace U.S. alliances and security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, and revise the international order to be more advantageous to Beijing’s authoritarian system and national interests. This strategy can be characterized as a determined pursuit of far-ranging efforts to expand the PRC’s national power.
• Despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing continued its efforts to advance its overall development including steadying its economic growth, strengthening its armed forces, and taking a more assertive role in global affairs. In response to both long and short-term economic trends, the CCP unveiled a new economic strategic task, or a new “development pattern,” called “dual circulation (双 循环).”
• The PRC has characterized China’s view of strategic competition in terms of a rivalry among powerful nation states, as well as a clash of opposing ideological systems. Beijing views the United States as increasingly determined to contain the PRC, creating potential obstacles to its strategy. Additionally, the PRC’s leaders are increasingly willing to confront the United States and other countries in areas where interest diverge.

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Foreign Policy

• The PRC’s foreign policy seeks to build a “community of common destiny” that supports its strategy to realize “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Beijing’s revisionist ambition for the international order derives from the objectives of its national strategy and the Party’s political and governing systems.
• In 2019, the PRC recognized that its armed forces should take a more active role in advancing its foreign policy, highlighting the increasingly global character that Beijing ascribes to its military power.
• In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was a driving force behind the PRC’s foreign policy efforts, as Beijing sought to deflect any culpability for the virus and its initial spread, and to capitalize on its narrative of domestic success and foreign assistance.

Economic Policy

• The PRC’s military modernization objectives are commensurate with, and part of, Beijing’s broader national development aspirations. The PRC’s economic, technological, political, social, and security development efforts are mutually reinforcing and support Beijing’s strategy to shape international and regional environments that accept and facilitate Beijing’s interests.
• The PRC’s economic development supports its military modernization not only by providing the means for larger defense budgets, but through deliberate Party-led initiatives such as Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035, as well as the systemic benefits of the PRC’s growing national industrial and technological base.
•  In the rollout of the PRC’s 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025), the Party announced a shift to a new “development pattern” of “dual circulation (双循环).” Dual circulation is focused on accelerating domestic consumption as a driver of economic growth, shifting to higher-end manufacturing, and creating “breakthroughs” in key technologies along critical high-end global supply chains, all while emphasizing “mutually reinforcing” foreign investment in these key technologies to provide the capital and technology necessary to advance domestic technological innovation in support of the PRC’s security and development objectives

Military-Civil Fusion Development Strategy

• The PRC pursues its Military-Civil Fusion (MCF; 军民融合) Development Strategy to fuse its economic, social, and security development strategies to build an integrated national strategic system and capabilities in support of the PRC’s national rejuvenation goals.
• Beijing’s MCF strategy includes objectives to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen reform of the national defense science and technology industries, and serves a broader purpose to strengthen all of the PRC’s instruments of national power.
• The PRC’s MCF development strategy encompasses six interrelated efforts: (1) fusing China’s defense industrial base and its civilian technology and industrial base; (2) integrating and leveraging science and technology innovations across military and civilian sectors; (3) cultivating talent and blending military and civilian expertise and knowledge; (4) building military requirements into civilian infrastructure and leveraging civilian construction for military purposes; (5) leveraging civilian service and logistics capabilities for military purposes; and, (6) expanding and deepening China’s national defense mobilization system to include all relevant aspects of its society and economy for use in competition and war.

Defense Policy and Military Strategy

• The PRC has stated its defense policy aims to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests. The PRC’s military strategy remains based on the concept of “active defense.”
• The PRC’s leaders stress the imperative of strengthening the PLA into a “world-class” military by the end of 2049 as an essential element of its strategy to rejuvenate the PRC into a “great modern socialist country.” In 2020, the PLA added a new milestone for modernization in 2027, to accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization of the PRC’s armed forces, which if realized would provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency.
• In November 2020, the CMC issued the “Chinese People’s Liberation Army Joint Operations Outline (trial) (中国人民解放军联合作战纲要(试行)” described as the “top-level law” of the PLA’s combat doctrine system in the “new era” that would strengthen the requirements and procedures for joint operations, combat support, national defense mobilization, and political work, among others.
• In 2020, the PLA remained primarily oriented toward “safeguarding” its perceived “sovereignty and security” interests in the region, while emphasizing a greater global role for itself, such as through delivering COVID-19 aid abroad and the pursuit of overseas military facilities, in accordance with the PRC’s defense policy and military strategy.

The report continues tomorrow