Month: October 2021

America’s very future is at serious risk, not just from enemies abroad, but also from dedicated internal forces that seek to replace Constitutional government with an authoritarian, anti-western culture regime.

Parents send their children to school to gain an education.  Most hard working, dedicated teachers want to provide that. Unfortunately, a substantial portion of educational bureaucrats and progressive faculty leaders have a wholly different agenda.

Replacing the basics has been a strident push by Progressives, as they shove propaganda down the throats of students. The drive originated in universities, but now infects every level, from kindergarten to post graduates.

The extraordinary alteration has replaced, in too many cases,  academia’s correct mission to educate,  with the force-feeding of leftist propaganda.  An example was recently observed in Oregon.   As Fox News reports,

“Gov. Kate Brown, the Oregon Democrat, signed a bill last month with little fanfare that drops the requirement that high school students prove proficiency in reading, writing or math before graduation.”

On the opposite coast, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has sought to ban honor rolls. “As The Post’s Selim Algar reports, a new DOE guidance warns that ‘recognizing student excellence via honor rolls and class rank can be detrimental to learners who find it more difficult to reach academic success.’ Even grades can negatively influence ‘future student performance.’ Instead, DOE’s geniuses want to emphasize ‘contributions to the school or wider community, and demonstrations of social justice and integrity.’ Staff should ‘eliminate practices that penalize students who have been marginalized based on their race, culture, language and/or ability.’” 

What has replaced authentic education is an aggressive combination of leftist ideology and extremist anti-main stream cultural concepts.

The Biden Administration’s advocacy of Critical Race Theory and the 1619 project has been a part of the push to cram demonstrably false and inaccurate historical views down the nations’ throat.

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Examples of the bizarre nature of the warping of education are numerous. A Daily Mail article exposed the actions  of one teacher who  had her high school English students pledge allegiance to a gay pride flag.

The OC Register writes that “…the powerful California Teachers Association… continues to push an aggressive and fundamentally reactionary approach to education… nothing has been more illustrative of the political agenda of our educational establishment than the recent draft curriculum for an ‘ethnic studies’ course for the state’s schools. Although this curriculum has created a firestorm of opposition and is unlikely to be adopted as is, the fact is the curriculum reflected a far-left agenda that is deeply entrenched in the educational establishment… The scariest thing about the ethnic studies curriculum may not be its ultimate content but how it reflects an ideology that advocates indoctrination of youngsters who often don’t even have the most basic understanding of sociology or history. Often incapable of meeting basic grade-level English language and mathematics standards, these students would be forced to learn academic jargon like misogynoir, cisheteropatriarchy and hxrstory.”

The assault on history and common sense is not confined to schools. It has affected museums and related institutions as well. Astoundingly, as reported by one source, The National Archives  placed a “harmful content” warning across its entire catalog website and the warning appears when users search for anything, including founding documents like the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights.

Most parents were blissfully unaware of how far schools had drifted from their mission. That started to change dramatically when COVID forced classes to switch to remote learning. Astounded by what they discovered, they began to react. School Board meetings quickly became battlefields when outraged moms and dads confronted those responsible.

Parental reaction was not confined to mere protests. Many have begun to abandon public schools altogether. The U.S. Census reports that “The U.S. Census Bureau’s experimental Household Pulse Survey, the first data source to offer both a national and state-level look at the impact of COVID-19 on homeschooling rates, shows a substantial increase from last spring — when the pandemic took hold — to the start of the 2020-2021 school year. Using a large, nationally representative sample of U.S. households, the survey shows homeschooling is notably higher than the national benchmarks and offers a glimpse of changes in homeschooling patterns during the pandemic.”

The trend is destined to expand until academia returns to providing honest and unbiased education.

Picture: Pixabay

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has established a pattern of unprecedented human rights abuses since it gained control. Its actions have resulted in the deaths of over 40 million innocent people, as well as the illegal absorption of whole national cultures.

Amnesty International has outlined the CCP’s oppression:

 “China continued its unrelenting persecution of human rights defenders (HRDs) and activists. Throughout the year, they were systematically subjected to harassment, intimidation, enforced disappearance and arbitrary and incommunicado detention, as well as lengthy terms of imprisonment. The absence of an independent judiciary and effective fair trial guarantees compounded such recurrent violations. Many human rights lawyers were denied their right to freedom of movement, as well as to meet and represent defendants and have access to case materials. HRDs and activists were targeted and charged with broadly defined and vaguely worded offences such as “subverting state power”, “inciting subversion of state power” and “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”.

The most prominent current instance of the CCP’s offenses involve the Uyghurs.  Human rights groups reveal that Beijing is forcibly sterilizing women, imposing forced labor, raping, torturing and killing individuals, and refusing Muslim Uyghurs the right to practice their religion.

The CCP’s deprivations have not been limited to its own borders and neighboring lands, as evidenced by the planet’s bout with COVID-19, a product of China’s Wuhan laboratory.

Beijing has exerted its considerable political and financial clout to not only limit discussion of the Uyghur holocaust, but to actually repress the Uyghur people beyond China’s borders.

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The Uyghur Human Rights Project  has issued a report that illustrates how “Since 1997, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has engaged in an unprecedented scale of transnational repression that has reached 28 countries worldwide. … Our data finds instances of at least 28 countries across the world complicit in China’s harassment and intimidation of Uyghurs… The dataset contains 1,151 cases of Uyghurs being detained in their host country and 395 cases of Uyghurs being deported, extradited, or rendered back to China.”

“China’s transnational repression of Uyghurs has been consistently on the rise and has accelerated dramatically with the onset of its system of mass surveillance in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) from 2017, showing a correlation between repression at home and abroad. In the first stage of China’s evolving system of transnational repression, from 1997 to 2007, a total of 89 Uyghurs from 9 countries, mostly in South and Central Asia, were detained or sent to China. In the second phase (2008–2013), 130 individuals from 15 countries were repressed. In the ongoing third phase (2014 to the end of our data collection in March 2021), a total of 1,327 individuals were detained or rendered from 20 countries. Unreported cases would likely raise these figures substantially, with our database presenting just the tip of the iceberg due to our reliance on publicly reported instances of repression.

“International organizations and host governments, particularly those with close political and economic ties to the PRC, can often be complicit in China’s use of transnational repression against Uyghurs, many of whom have sought refuge abroad. China’s transnational repression exists as part of a wider trend of global authoritarianism that threatens to erode democratic norms worldwide.”

Despite all this, major western influence centers continue to defend the CCP and obfuscate its deadly impact on the world, thanks to a successful Beijing policy of buying the loyalty of politicians and corporate leaders. Examples abound. Nike chief executive John Donahoe stated that his brand “is of China and for China.” Hollywood routinely censors their movies and television shows in order to not “offend” the CCP. President Joe Biden’s family has significant financial ties to that nation, as do a number of other elected officials.

Illustration: Pixabay

Iran Continues to Hold U.S. Citizen

Today marks six years that Iran has wrongfully detained Siamak Namazi, a U.S. citizen who has committed no crime and has been held by the Iranian government for the better part of a decade.

In 2016, Siamak’s father, Baquer, traveled to Iran to help free his son.  In retaliation, the Iranian government arrested Baquer as well.  The Iranian government sentenced both father and son to ten years in prison.  Now 84 years old, without any charge pending against him, and in dire need of medical attention, Baquer remains held by the Iranian government, which refuses to allow him to depart Iran. 

Secretary of State Blinken notes that   The Iranian government continues to subject the entire Namazi family to unimaginable abuse.  Through it all, the Namazis have shown remarkable courage. 

The United States is committed to securing Siamak and Baquer’s freedom as soon as possible, as well as that of the other U.S. citizens wrongfully detained in Iran.

U.S. Elected to U.N. Human Rights Council

The United States has been elected to serve on the UN Human Rights Council for the next term, beginning in 2022.

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In a statement, Secretary of State Blinken promised “We will work hard to ensure the Council upholds its highest aspirations and better supports those fighting against injustice and tyranny around the world.  The path towards the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms will be filled with challenges.  The United States commits to continue this steadfast pursuit, at every opportunity, with any and all countries that will join us.”

The Council is supposed to play a meaningful role in protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms by documenting atrocities in order to hold wrongdoers accountable.  It has not always fulfilled that obligation due to occasional poor selection of member-states to serve.

It focuses attention on emergencies and unfolding human rights crises, ensuring that those who are voiceless have a place to be heard.  The Council provides a forum where we can have open discussions about ways we and our partners can improve.  At the same time, it also suffers from serious flaws, including disproportionate attention on Israel and the membership of several states with egregious human rights records.  Together, we must push back against attempts to subvert the ideals upon which the Human Rights Council was founded, including that each person is endowed with human rights and that states are obliged to protect those rights.

U.N Committee on Torture

 Todd Buchwald has been elected to serve as an independent expert on the UN Committee Against Torture for the 2022-2025 term.  Advancing human rights and rule of law through multilateral re-engagement is a top priority for the United States, and in our pursuit of those ideals at home and around the world, we were proud to nominate Professor Buchwald.  The Committee Against Torture is an important UN platform for addressing torture and is charged with the critical work of monitoring 171 States parties’ compliance with their treaty obligations under the Convention Against Torture.  The United States takes seriously its obligations as a State Party to this treaty and submitted its sixth periodic report to the Committee on September 24.

Professor Buchwald is a distinguished scholar, lecturer, and professor of international law who previously served as the U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice with a focus on justice and accountability for atrocities.  This followed an acclaimed legal career with over 30 years in government and private practice, including as Assistant Legal Adviser of the State Department with a focus on United Nations affairs and as an Attorney in the Office of White House Counsel.  

Liberal Harvard University is moving its language school, currently located in Beijing, to Taiwan after Chinese university officials said it can no longer host the whole program in a time of deteriorating Sino-American relations.

Chinese People’s Liberation Air Force (PLAF) aircraft this month continue to threaten the integrity of Taiwan’s airspace while the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) sends more naval vessels into Taiwan’s territorial waters. Last week, in response to recent increased Chinese aggression, the CIA announced the creation of a mission exclusively dedicated to addressing the “global challenges” posed by communist China, with Director William Burns emphasizing that the “threat from China is coming from the government.” 

China’s litany of transgressions is almost endless… 

A lengthy report issued in October by the French Ministry of Defense’s Institute for Strategic Studies of the Military Academy (IRSEM), confirms that Huawei has a close relationship with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and that the CCP is using state-owned and private companies like Huawei to collect vast amounts of data globally. The abuse is so extensive that Huawei’s Czech Republic branch told Czech Public Radio that the Huawei branch was “secretly collecting personal data of customers, officials, and business partners, including the number of children, preferences, and financial status, among other things, to enter into the corporation’s database.” Closer to Beijing, India and China are expected to spend yet another winter with armed troops high in a Himalayan standoff between the two nuclear giants. At the same time Taiwan is under constant intrusions by Chinese military aircraft and ships. These are only a few select examples of the numerous cases of China’s most recent aggressive behavior outside its own borders. 

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While the Biden White House’s words do not match up with its lack of real punitory action toward China, the CIA is determined to change the game board. It recently referred to the Chinese government as a “key rival,” saying that the new mission center it is opening is the result of a series of strategic reviews launched by Burns earlier this year that concentrated on “China, technology, people, and partnerships,” among other areas. This may be an indication that, finally, someone in Washington is acting on the threat posed by the out-of-control communist giant. The question political and military analysts are asking this week is — are we too late to effectively counter Chinese global aggression and are Washington’s actions strong enough to send a message that will be heard by President Xi Jinping and those in the political elite in Beijing?

As the United States moves toward winter and the Christmas buying season, questions also abound concerning the security of the China-linked US supply chain. Fears are not only centered on toys that are expected to be in short supply, but also on critical items needed to support the health and welfare of the general American public. Already shelves are emptying in many states and the US Postal Service is warning that packages may not make it in time for the upcoming holiday. Decoupling trade with China will take years. In the interim, the US is effectively being held hostage to China’s whims as the White House fails to show any real leadership on the China challenge. 

Taiwanese Minister of Defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, in an address to Taiwan’s legislature on Wednesday said that by 2025, China will have the capability to mount a full-scale invasion of the island. The United States is committed under the Taiwan Relations Act to “help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan.” This is inclusive of selling Taiwan defensive weapons to help maintain the peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific. Analysts in Washington are asking whether the Biden White House is up to task. With so many challenges emanating simultaneously from China, it is high time Washington re-examine how it is handling US-China relations before a crisis erupts that send the US into an armed conflict. Although White House official assure that it has no intent to go to war, these increasingly aggressive moves by China increase the risk that an inadvertent “accident” between Beijing and Washington could draw the two nations into a downward death spiral from which neither could extract itself.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

America remains the strongest nation on earth but is no longer able to act unilaterally throughout the world without the support of other nations. A rising China, backed by a belligerent Russia, along with terrorism, a long global supply chain, demographic changes, and a number of other factors, contribute to America’s need for multilateral diplomacy to stabilize the international community. What large power will the US work within the distant future?  Some analysts in Washington are suggesting a surprising answer may appear viable in a decade or so.

If China can avoid a complicated series of economic, political, and demographic traps it faces in the next few years, it will continue its rise toward global hegemony. A world run by Xi Jinping and the CCP would be devoid of the human values treasured in the West, ethical business practices, and the guidelines ensuring our current international rules-based system works. It does not look like an American turn toward an aggressive China is the best answer. Where will Washington look for partners? Europe already is aligned with the US and remains divided and weak, although their regional economic strength, in total, is considerable. Analysts are suggesting this may mean that the United States will need to play the “Russia card” in a distant, post-Putin future.

Examining current internal Russian politics, its economic conditions, and the state’s military status leaves much uncertainty if this could be a viable possibility over the horizon. The country is run by an authoritarian leader and his supporting actors, the military and corrupt business oligarchs. Russia’s military, while not equal to that of the United States’, is making strides toward modernization and nuclear parity. Putin views the United States as his nation’s primary competitor and probably, more accurately stated, its greatest national security threat. Russia has a long history of being overrun on both its eastern and western borders. Ralph Benko wrote in Forbes in 2017 that: “The Russian ‘suspicion foible’ is well grounded in history. It’s not just that the Russian Federation is vastly outnumbered and outspent. Russia has been invaded by Western European powers three times in contemporary history: once by Sweden, in 1707, once by France, in 1812, and once by Germany, in 1941.” Seven hundred years earlier Mongol warriors to the east took vast amounts of Russian territory and ruled it for over 300 years. Fear of invasion from over the border, rightly so, is built into the Russian mindset.

The Russian oligarchs are strong, and Putin knows that to maintain power he must take them into consideration when formulating his policy. He keeps them pacified by looking the other way at their illegal activities and abuses of the economic system. While an alignment with Washington is highly unlikely under Putin, it presents an interesting exercise in forecasting future events. Several actions must precede any change in Russia’s partnerships. 

From Moscow’s perspective, Russia must see it as advantageous to its national security and global status to side with the democratic West. That is not a reality in 2021. From US and European views, Russia first must commit to Western economic, human rights, and political standards and practices that don’t exist currently in the country. Putin knows China will be dependent on Russian energy, AI, and missile technology for about ten more years. That gives him a decade-long window of economic opportunity to exploit. In that time he knows he must tamp down domestic social unrest to build a military strong enough to defend against incursions and provide him a seat at the table among other global leaders. He is making the most of the situation by selling China vast amounts of his country’s oil, natural gas, AI, and military technology. Putin is using those funds to finance upgrades to Russia’s military in fulfillment of his dream to recreate the glory of the Russian empire of the past. What happens,  however, after 2030 when China no longer needs Russia’s technology?

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Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement ending the one million square mile, eastern Siberian land dispute between the two communist giants. Russia retained the energy rich land it acquired during World War II and its warm-water Pacific port of Vladivostok. Putin is savvy and recognizes that if China becomes more self-sufficient in the coming years it may decide to challenge that Sino-Russian agreement. It could end badly in a new border conflict much larger than that of the March 1969 Damansky Incident (Chen Bao Island) in which several of its military were killed. The Sino-Russian partnership today is a result of convenience, not one of ideology or deep trust. Chinese leaders still talk of the Soviet betrayal in the late 1950’s, when Moscow reneged on its promise to give China the technology to build an atomic bomb. 

Does this leave open the possibility of a global realignment of major powers in another decade? Michael McFaul, of the Hoover Institution, says that “Given Russia’s rich human capital endowments, Russia is underperforming. Russia should be one of the technological centers of the world; a second Silicon Valley. But so far, that potential has not been realized… Politics are to blame.” He argues that the evidence suggests Russia cannot follow the Chinese model of economic development. To counterbalance China, Russia may find itself needing to play the “American card” more than the US needs to play the “Russia card.”

Photo: Russian generals (Russian Defence Ministry)

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

The palpable anger boiling over as a result of President Biden’s Afghanistan bungling and deceit will seem insignificant compared to the outrage that will occur if his party’s “fundamental transformation” goals are enacted.

From packing the Supreme Court to giving Washington the power to prevent states from ensuring that election abuse does not occur, the Democrats have badly, even dangerously, misread the mood of the American people.

The Party’s leaders, who count as their allies the barons of television, academia and the web, have failed (or chose not to) recognize the fury of those who have been marginalized and maligned through censorship, questionable ballot procedures, and school curriculum that resembles propaganda far more than education.

The stunning contempt Progressive leaders have to those who don’t precisely agree with their views started to become more evident about thirteen years ago, when Barack Obama famously stated that his opponents “…get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Obama was clearly contemptuous of majority opinion when he pursued a still unexplained foreign policy that ignored military threats from Russia and China, and favored Islamic extremists over moderates. As the first black President, he unabashedly abused his historic role not to promote racial harmony but to gin up antagonism that used the utterly false narrative of “systemic racism” in order to mask his leftist agenda.

Americans have been exceptionally divided before. Many still remember the anger resulting from the Vietnam War and the long-delayed Civil Rights movement. Fundamentally, however, both sides of those harsh disagreements had basic points of agreement, including a devotion to the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and the superiority of capitalism over socialist economics.

 The left ignores the reality that socialism has resulted in permanent poverty and authoritarianism wherever it has been applied. Their absurd anti-fossil fuel policies drive the cost of everything up.  They apparently consider all this acceptable in return for the huge growth in power it gives them.

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Unafraid of criticism or ridicule in the media, Hollywood, and college campuses, areas which their allies dominate, they have openly attacked core American values. Senator Charles Schumer has stated that “The First Amendment is sacred, but it is not absolute.” The Second Amendment is under constant attack. The Ninth and Tenth Amendments, which state that powers not specifically given to Washington are reserved for the states or the people, are treated as anachronisms.

Americans watch bewildered as their Congressional leaders debate giving benefits to illegal immigrants even as the Social Security and Medicare treasuries are headed towards bankruptcy. They watch as those same leaders ignore the threats of vastly increased crime, disease and expense from illegal immigration, all in return for the increase in votes they hope to eventually receive from those new arrivals.

From kindergarten to post graduate levels, curriculum designed by extremists preach that America is evil, western values are wrong, the Judeo-Christian ethic is nonsense, and that parental rights are subordinated to bureaucrats.

Progressives continue to place criminals over victims.

Despite the extent and ubiquity of these outrages, Democrat leaders feel assured that their iron grip on schools, media and the bureaucracy, combined with their weakening of ballot security, will prevent any substantive pushback from the citizenry.  It’s a careless attitude from those that didn’t believe the majority of the people would fight to save the Union, when they previously tore the nation apart in an effort to preserve slavery.

Illustration: Pixabay

In what has been described as “An unprecedented group of allies and partners,” the U.S., along with the European Union, the United Kingdom, and NATO have banded together to expose and condemn China’s malicious cyber activities.

The information is not completely new. In 2020, CPO Magazine reported that “The state-backed Chinese advanced persistent threat (APT) groups are among the world’s oldest, most skilled and most active agents of cyber espionage. As respected as these groups already are as threats, a new report from BlackBerry indicates that their reach and capability may be even greater than previously thought. The report outlines a coordinated campaign by five of these groups that dates back at least eight years. The groups have been exploiting underlooked remote access vulnerabilities in Linux servers, using these as a launch point for malware attacks against Windows systems and Android devices. In some cases, the groups have been exploiting a general lack of interest in Linux security to quietly exfiltrate data from targets for years at a time.”

According to a White House release, “The PRC’s pattern of irresponsible behavior in cyberspace is inconsistent with its stated objective of being seen as a responsible leader in the world. Today, countries around the world are making it clear that concerns regarding the PRC’s malicious cyber activities is bringing them together to call out those activities, promote network defense and cybersecurity, and act to disrupt threats to our economies and national security.”

Washington is deeply concerned that China has fostered an intelligence enterprise that includes contract hackers who also conduct unsanctioned cyber operations worldwide, including for their own personal profit. As detailed in public charging documents unsealed in October 2018 and July and September 2020, hackers with a history of working for the PRC Ministry of State Security (MSS) have engaged in ransomware attacks, cyber enabled extortion, crypto-jacking, and rank theft from victims around the world, all for financial gain. 

In some cases, the White House notes, PRC government-affiliated cyber operators have conducted ransomware operations against private companies that have included ransom demands of millions of dollars. The PRC’s unwillingness to address criminal activity by contract hackers harms governments, businesses, and critical infrastructure operators through billions of dollars in lost intellectual property, proprietary information, ransom payments, and mitigation efforts.

The move is informed by a U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency analysis that found that the Chinese government engages in malicious cyber activities to pursue its national interests. Malicious cyber activities attributed to the Chinese government targeted, and continue to target, a variety of industries and organizations in the United States, including healthcare, financial services, defense industrial base, energy, government facilities, chemical, critical manufacturing (including automotive and aerospace), communications, IT (including managed service providers), international trade, education, video gaming, faith-based organizations, and law firms. Additionally, Advisories published by CISA and other unclassified sources reveal that China is conducting operations worldwide to steal intellectual property and sensitive data from critical infrastructure organizations, including organizations involved in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and research sectors working on COVID-19 response.

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The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence 2021 Annual Threat Assessment, also noted that “China presents a prolific and effective cyber-espionage threat, possesses substantial cyber-attack capabilities, and presents a growing influence threat.” The Assessment states that “China can launch cyber attacks that, at a minimum, can cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States.” Additionally, the Assessment states that “China’s cyber-espionage operations have included compromising telecommunications firms, providers of managed services and broadly used software, and other targets potentially rich in follow-on opportunities for intelligence collection, attack, or influence operations.”

In July, NATO’s North Atlantic Council expressed concern  that “cyber threats to the security of the Alliance are complex, destructive, coercive, and becoming ever more frequent. This has been recently illustrated by ransomware incidents and other malicious cyber activity, targeting our critical infrastructure and democratic institutions, as well as exploiting weaknesses in hardware and software supply chains.”

The Alliance attributed the recent Microsoft Exchange Server compromise to  China.

Beijing has dedicated ample military resources to its hacking enterprise. The People Liberation Army’s Unit 61398 is a full-time computer hacking center.

Illustration: Pixabay

The U.S. Department of Defense is now openly acknowledging what strategic observers have noted for some time: the threat from the collective and rapidly growing might of Russia and China is vast.

During the Cold War, the U.S. faced one peer competitor, the Soviet Union. Today, Russia and China, both peer competitors, are seen as sometimes collaborating in opportunistic ways

Navy Adm. Charles A. Richard, U.S. Strategic Commander, warns that “U.S. is now navigating through uncharted waters with the possibility of strategic deterrence failing under rapidly growing threats from China and Russi..” Richard believes that “integrated deterrence in all domains, both conventional as well as nuclear, across the services and in tandem with allies and partners” is a key approach.

Admiral Richard individually described the threats from America’s two main adversaries.

“We are witnessing a strategic breakout by China. The explosive growth and modernization of its nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking. And frankly, that word breathtaking may not be enough,” he said.

China is rapidly improving its strategic nuclear capability and capacity, Richard said. It’s growing and enhancing its missile force, including multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. These include intermediate range ballistic missiles, mobile ICBMs and submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missiles. 

Beijing is also pursuing advanced weapons such as hypersonics.

He emphasized that “Because of these challenges our current terrestrial- and space-based sensor architecture may not be sufficient to detect and track these hypersonic missiles.”

In 2019, China tested more ballistic missiles than the rest of the world combined.

Beijing is also developing a modern nuclear command and control capability and is modernizing its conventional forces to include ships, submarines and aircraft.

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China has the largest Navy in the world and they have the third largest air force on the globe.

While China’s rapid arms growth and its aggression throughout the world garner the lion’s share of attention, Putin’s Russia is also a serious threat to be reckoned with.

 Moscow continues to use a wide range of capabilities that are below the threshold of conflict. Much of their aggression tends to fall “under the radar,” using cyber attacks and other subtle means.

Not so subtle, however, is the extraordinary modernization of the Kremlin’s nuclear forces. Nuclear weapons remain a foundational aspect of Russia’s strategy and that nation has recapitalized over 80% of their strategic nuclear power, including expanded warhead delivery capacity. Moscow invests heavily in developing hypersonic weapons and a variety of other missiles.

Admiral Richard emphasized that nuclear modernization is a Defense Department priority. 

That modernization, according to sources within the Defense Department, includes not just the nuclear triad, it also comprises investing in a nuclear command and control system that is protected against cyberattacks.

“Every operational plan in the Department of Defense, and every other capability we have, rests on an assumption that strategic deterrence will hold. And if strategic deterrence, and in particular nuclear deterrence, doesn’t hold, none of our other plans, and no other capability that we have is going to work as designed,” Richard said.

The Admiral also mentioned bolstering conventional forces, missile defense and standing up the Joint All-Domain Command and Control system. Developing and fielding hypersonics and high-energy laser weapons are also very important.

He emphasized that to better understand the threats and how best to respond to them requires harnessing all sources, including those outside the Pentagon. Richard noted that Industry as well needs to shore up the nation’s defenses by delivering needed technology and systems on time and at reasonable cost, and also requires the cooperation and joint ventures of America’s allies.

Photo: A U.S. Marine with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 211 prepares to land an F-35B aboard the HMS Queen Elizabeth in the South China Sea, July 29, 2021.

AFGHANISTAN

Political analysts, reporters, and patriots are outraged at the Biden Administration over statements made by State Department Spokesman Ned Price, during a press briefing on Thursday in which he egregiously blamed American volunteers, who risked their lives to rescue American citizens and others in Afghanistan who helped American forces, for causing the Department more work regarding the vetting of those individuals. Instead of thanking those Americans who put their lives on the line to help, he complained about their actions and the resulting paperwork it caused the Department.

 “When it comes to private efforts to facilitate the departure of Americans… That is not to say that these private charters are not without challenge, and we have also spoken of the challenges that these present. We’ve made the point that without personnel on the ground in Mazar-e-Sharif, in this case, it is – we are unable to ensure the fidelity of intended manifests, and there [also] is no ability on the part of the US Government directly to determine whether the passengers aboard the plane would be eligible for relocation or for resettlement in the United States.”

Price said that in some cases the “manifests were not accurate…And when this happens, it does put these individuals in a very difficult spot… It has the potential – we are cognizant of the fact that it has the potential to damage the bilateral relationship when it involves landing in a third country, as it does in these cases. And it makes it more difficult for the US Government to rely on partner countries to assist in future relocations out of Afghanistan.” It appears that Price believes the State Department is incapable of managing relations with other countries over the temporary inconvenience of having those escaping the Taliban land on their air airfields.

NEW LGBTQI+ ENVOY

The US Government, despite security problems in Afghanistan, China-Taiwan issues, and other global challenges, has shifted priorities and named Jessica Stern, as the new “Special Envoy to Advance the Human Rights of LGBTQI+ Persons.” This appointment reflects the Biden-Harris administration’s commitment to advance and to protect the human rights of LGBTQI+ persons at home and abroad, according to Price. 

NORTH KOREA

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When questioned by reporters about US sanctions on North Korea, Price said that “we have made very clear that our policy calls for a calibrated, practical approach that seeks serious and sustained diplomacy with the DPRK to make tangible progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, and our deployed forces. Our goal remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and to that end we remain prepared to meet with the DPRK without preconditions – anytime, anywhere. We have made specific proposals for discussions with the DPRK in our messages to them, and we hope that they respond positively to our outreach.” 

Once again, political analysts are left to question whether the Administration’s words are backed up with anything more solid. North Korean President Kim is overseeing harsh conditions in the country that include government policy-induced famine in many regions. Price noted that: “ Even when we disagree with a particular regime, we believe that we must work to the best of our ability to do all we can to alleviate the suffering of the people. And so we continue to support international efforts aimed at the provision of critical humanitarian aid to the DPRK.” 

CHINA

The Biden Administration is “very concerned by the PRC’s provocative military actions near Taiwan,” according to Price. He said the activity is destabilizing, it risks miscalculations, it undermines regional peace and also stability in the region. Price called on Beijing “to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.” So far, it appears that the Administration is expending much of its energy on signing documents and calling for China to change it behavior. Price cited numerous documents, including the joint statement with Prime Minister Suga in April and another, after South Korean President Moon’s visit in May of this year, as well as the G7 communique in June which, according to Price, made a reference to the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait  Finally, he noted the most recent AUSMIN statement from September calling for the same changes in policy. Analysts question whether such statements carry any weight with the government in Beijing and question whether the Biden Administration is weakening the actions it taking to hold China accountable for its actions.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

On Monday China ordered 52 warplanes, which included 36 fighters and 12 nuclear bombers plus surveillance aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The US issued a strongly word statement condemning the action. Luckily, Taipei used restraint and responded without firing on the invading force. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s navy also is operating in dangerous waters just off the  Taiwan coastline these days. It begs the question – what happens if, or perhaps, “when” an accident occurs during a future provocation? Does this mean a third great war is on the horizon in the Pacific? Some military analysts in Washington believe we are close to entering into a physical conflict with China.

Chess is a game involving strategy and planning. The more successful player wins. It is not that different than the contest between Washington and Beijing for global power and influence. Unfortunately, the global hegemon in the West is facing off with a belligerent communist giant in the East that plays by a different set of rules. It is ongoing despite decades of attempts to encourage China to abide by the international rules-based international order. 

Taiwan always has been a contentious point with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Lately, Xi has upped the ante using his warplanes to intimidate the island. It probably won’t stop until he is made to do so. A number of US war games recently indicated that the United States may not win a conflict with China in the Pacific. Although this may underestimate the will and determination of the US armed forces it does not undercount the size and sophistication of the Chinese military. Estimates are that within four years China will have the strength and experience to take Taiwan in a full-scale invasion. According to a recent Reuters report Taiwan’s Minister of Defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, told the Parliament: “By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration.”

Can Washington simply count on other factors in consideration, to repress China’s desire to conquer Taiwan? Legal agreements signed over Hong Kong’s independence proved worthless when it came to Beijing abiding by the rules there. The Asia Times is reporting this week that it is not just Hong Kong Taiwan who are experiencing aggression from China. Richard J. Heydarian wrote that “The Malaysian Ministry of Foreign Affairs submitted this week a four-paragraph note verbale to Chinese ambassador Ouyang Yujing in which the Southeast Asian country expressed its “protest against the presence and activities of Chinese vessels, including a survey vessel, in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone off the coasts of Sabah and Sarawak.”

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Will Washington stay strong and abide by the spirit of the 1954 Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan? Former Trump National Security Advisor and retired Army Gen. H.R. McMaster on Monday said that the US and its allies are entering a “very dangerous time.” At a Hudson Institute Roundtable discussion McMaster said the Washington cannot discount it and that he “think[s] that it’s really important for the United States, for Japan, the free world, the European Union to make clear to China that this kind of aggression is unacceptable.” He further pointed out that Xi Jinping views the lack of a strong US response to China’s actions in Hong Kong as a green light to push further as Washington doesn’t has the political will to stop China.

McMaster added: “…I think that we’re in a race — we being Taiwan and the United States but also Japan, and the development of its capabilities, and others in the region including our allies, Australia and so forth — to ensure deterrence by denial, to convince the Chinese Communist Party leadership and the People’s Liberation Army that they can’t accomplish their objectives through the use of force or coercion vis a vis Taiwan.” China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi, and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met Wednesday in Switzerland to discuss the challenge. The question remains whether it is even possible at this juncture for Beijing and Washington to begin to rebuild the communications necessary to ratchet back this dangerous chess game. If not, Beijing may call “check” forcing Washington’s hand.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Chinese fighter planes (China Defence Ministry)