Month: October 2021

AFGHANISTAN

The Department of State announced that it is providing an additional $144 million in humanitarian assistance to those in Afghanistan and to Afghan refugees in the region. “This assistance is provided directly to independent humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), International Organization for Migration (IOM), the World Health Organization (WHO), and other international and non-governmental organizations following extensive vetting and monitoring,” according to a statement released by the Department. At the same time officials announced the US is looking for funding from private American citizens to assist with costs associated with resettling refugees. This comes as the Biden Administration faces continuing criticism for its hand ling of the evacuation of Americans from the country. Some political analysts are citing sources in country saying that over 100,000 persons wanting to leave Afghanistan remain stuck there. 

RUSSIA

“On October 8, Russian authorities applied the label of “media foreign agent” to the international investigative journalism project Bellingcat, known for its investigation of the poisoning of Navalny,” according to a statement signed by the United States and almost 20 other nations. It called on Russia to improve freedom of the press in the country, citing the regime’s systematic detention of journalists. The government has subjected the media to harsh treatment after many reported on protests in support of imprisoned opposition figure Aleksey Navalny. The statement noted many cases of harassment and imprisonment of journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), including reporter Vladislav Yesypenko who has been held and tortured since March for reporting on Russia’s invasion of the Crimea. This summer Yesypenko was indicted on specious charges and faces up to 18 years’ imprisonment, according to the State Department. 

PASSPORTS

The Department of State has issued the first US passport with an “X” gender marker. It announced that gender markers on US passports and Consular Reports of Birth Abroad (CRBAs) have been changed regarding “gender identity” as the Department is moving towards adding an X gender marker for non-binary, intersex, and gender non-conforming persons applying for a U.S. passport or CRBA. On Tuesday, New Price, Department Spokesperson, used the Noon Briefing to announce that it was “Intersex Awareness Day.” It appears that climate change and sexual orientation are now moving to the top of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda this week.

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SUDAN

On Tuesday the State Department Spokesperson condemned the anti-democratic actions of the Sudanese military, saying – “it subverted the constitutional declaration of 2019, but in some ways, more importantly, it has subverted the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people…We’ve joined nations and organizations from across the world in expressing concern. That includes the African Union, it includes the UN, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, France, Germany, Canada, and the UK, Sudan’s neighbors as well.” While $700 million in emergency economic support funds (ESF) to Sudan have been suspended, humanitarian aid is continuing. Price would not confirm if the US will place any additional sanctions on the country or take any new actions against those individuals in the military responsible for the military takeover in Sudan.

TAIWAN

The United States wants Taiwan to be given permission to participate in a meaningfully way in the United Nations system, according to a press statement released on Tuesday by the State Department. Price said “the statement made a point that we support Taiwan’s ability to participate meaningfully at the UN and to contribute its valuable expertise to address many of the global challenges we face. That includes global public health, the environment and climate change, development assistance, technical standards, and economic cooperation as well. We reiterated our commitment to Taiwan’s meaningful participation at the World Health Organization and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and we will continue to support Taiwan’s meaningful participation in such fora. The Biden agenda highlighted climate change and the environment in the statement while neglecting to mention increasingly aggressive Chinese behavior toward Taiwan.

In a back and forth, heated discussion with a reporter during the press briefing, a reporter said to Price that “The problem is that no one knows what that means, and it just creates more confusion and makes the situation worse. Do you not get that?” Price would only respond that it “was abundantly clear.” Senior officials in the Biden Administration continue to make statements out of sync with its actions. Lately, the media is showing its frustration with the lack of transparency.

Countering China in the Pacific may be the greatest test of military strength and political willpower by democratic nations since World War II. The new three-way agreement among the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States [AUKUS], which initially formed a strategic defense alliance to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines, has expanded into a coalition working across the Indo-Pacific region to push back against the rising threat of an aggressive China. Former Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon addressed that threat this week at a US Naval Institute conference where he said the most remarkable thing about the agreement is the sharing of advanced technologies, including nuclear propulsion for submarines, and Canberra’s commitment “to an adversarial role with China,”, according to John Grady writing in USNI News. 

AUKUS adds to other US Indo-Pacific defense agreements that include five formal treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia-New Zealand. During a CNN interview this week Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen acknowledged for the first time publicly that the United States has 32 troops on the ground in Taiwan training its military forces. While a mostly symbolic move it indicates the official return of US military to the island for the first time since the American Taiwan Defense Commanded ended in 1979. President Biden last week told a televised forum that the United States was ready to defend Taiwan against an invasion from China. But all is not as positive as it appears. 

While it seemed to be good news for Taiwan and the other democratic states of the Indo-Pacific region, senior officials in the Biden Administration quickly exhibited a lack of political willpower when they immediately backed off the President’s statement of support for Taiwan. 

Chinese officials in Beijing viewed the retraction as indicative of a lack of strong leadership by the United States and confirmation of the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to physically confront China should, or when, it decides to take back Taiwan. The White House retreat conflicted with statements by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that “Taiwan has become a democratic success story” and that the US is among many UN members who “view Taiwan as a valued partner and trusted friend.” Blinken added that “Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the UN system is not a political issue, but a pragmatic one.” 

Mixed messages by senior Biden Administration officials have emboldened Chinese President Xi Jinping to move aggressively in the South China Sea. Over China’s National Day week at the beginning of October, Beijing sent a record number of 149 military aircraft southwest of Taiwan in strike group formations. As a warning to Taiwan and the West it also conducted beach landing exercises on its side of the Taiwan Strait. Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, defiantly told reporters that “Taiwan has no right to join the United Nations.” Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP have a long history of continuing to push their policy agenda hard until they hit a wall. So far, the Biden Administration is not building a wall. From China’s perspective there is no wall in sight. 

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If Washington and the AUKUS alliance states fail to send a consistent and strong message to China, defense analysts in Washington say that China will continue with its belligerent behavior and it can be expected to increase in intensity in the coming months. This comes as Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed to Bloomberg News for the first time that the Chinese test of a nuclear-capable missile would be very difficult to defend against. He added that “What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system. And it is very concerning.” The Defense Department previously declined to confirm the October 16 test although military analysts knew about advances in China’s hypersonic weapons program for many months. 

If Chinese military preparations for action against Taiwan continue to intensify the AUKUS alliance may be forced into a position that risks a major war in the Pacific. It could emerge from unintended consequences of interactions during exercises or a deliberate act of aggression by China. What is certain is that mixed messages coming from the White House increase the risk among a number of nuclear-armed states in the region. Washington needs to recognize China is no longer a weak, backward nation with barefoot doctors tending its sick. Just this week Chinese researchers announced their new supercomputer is one million times more powerful than its nearest competitor, Google’s Sycamore and that a second light-based machine takes one millisecond to perform a task that would take a conventional computer 30 trillion years. This is the reality of China in 2021. The Biden Administration and AUKUS must address the threat  while the opportunity still exists.

Daria Novak provides updates on China each Friday

Photo: Pixabay

Something is amiss when FBI agents are forced to resort to using Google to interview suspected Russian spies. Unlike China’s American-based Confucius Centers which support its spy operations in the US, few in the American public are familiar with Russia’s version – the Coordinating Council of Russian Compatriots of the US (known colloquially by its Russian acronym KSORS). For several years the FBI has been investigating people connected to this diaspora group, including conducting searches of their homes and offices. The ongoing investigation, apparently opened before 2018, is looking at Russian funding of the organization across the entire United States. Foreign influence operations in the US are not uncommon. What is troubling are the amounts and types of resources Russia is pouring into its clandestine influence operations in the US while at the same time the American intelligence community is constrained by limited funding and legal restrictions that hamstring its efforts to protect the country. Russia’s President Putin, a former intelligence officer, is well aware of how the United States operates and is employing that knowledge in a soft power campaign against Washington. 

Alexander Reid Ross, writing in The Daily Beast, notes one KSORS interviewee said: “Yes! People from the FBI came to me. But it was not very serious. They did not take a translator and we used Google. That was funny.” It’s outrageous that pro-Russian intelligence elements do not view our efforts seriously at a time of heightened tension between the two countries! National security risk increases when America’s foreign adversaries feel safe ignoring our military strength and political leadership. This, however, is not the first instance. In 2014, during the Obama Administration, Russia occupied the Crimean region of the Ukraine. The Russian government, at the same time, decided to enhance its active measures against the United States by creating a “Fifth Column” in this country. It forcefully inserted personnel into KSORS who agreed to work with the Russian Embassy in Washington to advance the Kremlin’s interests. They, in essence, took over the organization to create an expansive subversive, clandestine network operating freely across the United States. 

“Critics among Russian-speaking diaspora groups in the United States claim that KSORS became increasingly adversarial amid the escalation of tensions during Russia’s occupation of the Crimea” says Ross. Former KSORS chair Igor Baboshkin was forced to leave the group when he refused instructions to  sign a statement supporting the Russian invasion of the Crimea. According to Kseniya Kirilova, of the Jamestown Foundation, at issue is how to differentiate Russian propaganda and misinformation operations from true cultural exchange programs. You Tube has footage of a Sacramento, CA area camp run by KSORS members who are teaching children military-style training . Another related Russian language You Tube video taken in Pine Bush, New York shows American children and adults involved in KSORS celebrating Russian military victories in Soviet uniforms and with weapons. It is not an innocent cultural exchange organization. Recently many KSORS members, including several of it 10 council leaders, sold their homes in the US and returned to Russia, citing a myriad of reasons, although none admitted its was due to the FBI’s investigation of the group.

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President Putin has made no secret of the fact that he intends to return Russia to a position of global glory, power and leadership. He views the United States as the greatest threat to his country and to his goal. The United States needs to recognize that not all threats to this country come from a military action on our soil. Long ago the Soviet communist leadership predicted that it would take America from within without raising the barrel of a gun. 

According to the Robert Lansing Institute, Putin also “is seeking to set up alternative interaction channels with the West via the European monarchies” in a great power competition that is increasing in intensity over the last few years. It notes that “The Federation of Russian Parties in Europe includes four existing Russian parties of the EU (Association for Human Rights in United Latvia, Union of Russians in Lithuania, Russian Party of Estonia, Party for the Defense of Russophonia of France). All those “parties” were created by Moscow to further its interests in Europe and exist solely due to its financial support.” This is a coordinated effort by Moscow inside western democracies and needs to be recognized as such as it is not a benign movement.

Daria Novak provides insights on Russia each Thursday.

As bad as the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan has been, the worse may yet be ahead.

There are significant elements within the Pakistan government and military that have extensive ties to the Taliban. It is not inconceivable that avenues exist for the terrorist regime in Kabul to acquire nuclear weapons.

The Council on Foreign Relations emphasized, following the Taliban victory, “After the Taliban took over Kabul, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that the Taliban were ‘breaking the chains of slavery.’ There are three long-standing and overlapping reasons for Khan’s public show of support. First, Pakistan has vested ideological interests in the Taliban. Pakistan was created in 1947 as a Muslim nation and Islam was the glue that was supposed to hold together many otherwise disparate communities with diverse linguistic and ethnic identities… Second, Pakistani officials worry about the border with Afghanistan and believe that a Taliban government could ease their concerns. Since 1947, Afghan governments have rejected the Durand Line, which separates Pakistani Pashtun-dominated territories from Afghanistan. Afghanistan, home to a Pashtun majority, claims these territories as a part of a “Pashtunistan” or traditional Pashtun homeland. Pakistan’s government believes that the Taliban’s ideology emphasizes Islam over Pashtun identity. Third, it is imperative for Pakistan to have a Pakistan-friendly government established in Afghanistan. Pakistan accuses India of seeking to exploit its ethnic and linguistic divisions to destabilize and break up the country.”

Human Rights Watch states that:

“Pakistan is distinguished both by the sweep of its objectives and the scale of its efforts, which include soliciting funding for the Taliban, bankrolling Taliban operations, providing diplomatic support as the Taliban’s virtual emissaries abroad, arranging training for Taliban fighters, recruiting skilled and unskilled manpower to serve in Taliban armies, planning and directing offensives, providing and facilitating shipments of ammunition and fuel, and on several occasions apparently directly providing combat support.⁸³ In April and May 2001 Human Rights Watch sources reported that as many as thirty trucks a day were crossing the Pakistan border; sources inside Afghanistan reported that some of these convoys were carrying artillery shells, tank rounds, and rocket-propelled grenades.⁸⁴ Such deliveries are in direct violation of U.N. sanctions. Pakistani landmines have been found in Afghanistan; they include both antipersonnel and antivehicle mines.⁸⁵ Pakistan’s army and intelligence services, principally the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), contribute to making the Taliban a highly effective military force.⁸⁶ While these Pakistani agencies do not direct the policies of the IEA, senior Pakistani military and intelligence officers help plan and execute major military operations.⁸⁷ In addition, private-sector actors in Pakistan provide financial assistance to the Taliban.”

A Brooking Institute review provides this analysis:

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“What Pakistan doesn’t discuss openly is this central tension: Pakistan has long treated the Afghan Taliban as friends… Pakistan argues that a “rushed” U.S. withdrawal before peace talks has set the stage for the current situation. [there are] reports of purported Taliban fighters being treated across the border in Pakistan, and statements such as those made by its interior minister, who recently said that the Taliban’s families live in Pakistan.”

Washington’s uneasy relations with Islamabad underwent a profound change following the botched Biden departure, leaving billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment in the hands of an extremelydangerous regime, and establishing the firm impression among many that America was not  currently a significant regional presence to be reckoned with.

A Wilson Center study notes that “Pakistan has stopped responding to US carrot and stick tactics.”

In a radio interview on WABC, former presidential advisor John Bolton cautions that the Taliban could eventually get hold of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, a force consisting of 150 atomic weapons.  In addition, notes a Daily Mail article, Islamabad also possesses 102 land-based missiles and F-16 combat aircrafts with 24 nuclear launchers. It is currently testing submarine-based missiles, as well.

Illustration: Pixabay

The era of great power competition has returned. It comes at a difficult time for the U.S.

American armed forces were barely recovering from the reduced funding of the Obama era. There was a brief respite under Trump, but the recent capture of both the White House and Congress by those not inclined to recognize the enhanced danger and respond with adequate funding has placed national security in danger.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many hoped and believed that, with the end of the Cold War, the era of “great power competition” had come to a close. Unfortunately, those hopes were soon dashed.  The belligerent Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as head of Russia. Putin’s dream is a restoration of the Soviet Empire.  Even more worrisome, China moved rapidly, intensely, and successfully to develop a superpower caliber military, which it has wielded aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region.

Beyond funding, the composition of the armed forces must change to recognize the different challenges they now face.  Gone are the days when adversaries fielded less sophisticated and smaller forces. Russia has a larger nuclear force, and China, a larger navy.

The U.S. Marine Corps is moving to acknowledge this dramatic change. The Marine Corps commandant, David H. Berger, noted in a study that his predecessor believed “the defining attributes of our current force design are no longer what the nation requires of  the Marine Corps… The Marine  Corps is not organized, trained, equipped, or postured  to meet the demands of the rapidly evolving future  operating environment… I assess that the current force  is unsuited to future requirements in size, capacity, and  specific capability.”

A report on the structure of the Marines gloomily noted that enhanced funding is not on the horizon, stating “Operating under the assumption that we will not receive  additional resources, we must divest certain existing  capabilities and capacities to free resources for essential new capabilities. The most logical way to approach divestment is to take a systems perspective and reduce infantry battalions while proportionally reducing the organizations dedicated to supporting these battalions – direct support artillery, ground mobility assets, assault support aviation, light attack aviation, and combat service support capabilities whose capacity is similarly related to the size of the ground and air combat elements to be supported.”

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Since the end of the Second World War, the Pacific had been, in strategic terms, an “American Lake.”  While some tension had existed with the Soviet Navy, the dominance of U.S. forces had been overwhelming. However, that has been dramatically altered. China’s largest-on-the globe navy places American and allied forces at deep risk.

For some time, the Marines had come to resemble the U.S. Army, operating in a somewhat similar fashion and with the type of heavy equipment typical of land operations.  The storied legacy of “island hopping,” so emblematic of Marine operations during the Second World War, appeared to be a thing of the past.  While the U.S. Navy was overwhelmingly more dominant than any potential rival, the need for beachhead operations, such as those on Iwo Jima, Saipan, and other Pacific enemy strongholds during WW2, seemed remote.

Unfortunately, that is no longer the case.  The requirement to secure island bases and engage in operations to maintain lines of resupply with America’s Pacific allies has re-emerged.

The Marines, according to a 2020 study, will have to divest certain types of equipment more suited for extended land operations, such as tanks, and replace them with other weapons. There are shortfalls in expeditionary long-range precision  fires; medium-to-long-range air defense systems;  short-range (point defense) air defense systems;  high-endurance, long-range unmanned systems with  intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance,  electronic warfare and lethal strike capabilities and disruptive and less-lethal capabilities appropriate for  countering malign activity by actors pursuing maritime  “gray zone” strategies. 

The Marines will always strive to complete their mission. Whether the politicians give them the resources to do so is the concern.

Illustration: National Park Service

The media has refused to dwell on the reality that America and its’ friends and allies are imperiled as never before since the Biden Administration took office.  

Russia has attacked a key pipeline (don’t believe the criminal organization story; nothing happens in Russia without Putin’s permission.) It is openly threatening Ukraine, and has apparently intimidated the U.S. Navy away from a Black Sea deployment. Moscow has stationed intimidating forces in the Arctic. It has developed a missile capable of launching a nuclear weapon that could destroy England with a single bomb. Beijing has taken control of a former U.S. airbase on the island of Kiribati, just 1,800 miles from Pearl Harbor.  China’s aggression escalates daily. The Philippines is under consistent incursions, Australia is threatened, both economically and physically.  Israel has come under the deadliest attack In years. The U.S. southern border is essentially a sieve.

These events did not occur spontaneously, nor are they necessarily the result of long-standing trends. They are the direct result of a current White House that does not prioritize defense issues, a Congress intent on spending trillions on questionable domestic programs while essentially cutting the Pentagon’s budget when inflation is taken into account, and a media disinterested in reporting on reporting on all the above.

Putin intimidates Ukraine and threatens to use both battlefield and new strategic nuclear weapons. Xi Jingping tells his troops to prepare for combat. Iran continues to defy bans on the development of nuclear weapons and ramps up funding for terrorist organizations. While all this is occurring, President Biden’s Secretary of Defense is concentrating on transgender issues in the military and his CIA officials look to hire “cisgender applicants with anxiety disorders.” Is it any wonder that Moscow and Beijing feel that the time is ripe for aggression?

Biden’s track record and prior rhetoric is part of the problem.  During his tenure as Vice President, the U.S. refused to even issue a diplomatic protest when China invaded the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, a move condemned by the World Court at the Hague.  When Russia annexed Ukraine, the Obama-Biden Administration did virtually nothing in response. For reasons that have yet to be explained, that same White House sent pallet-loads of untraceable cash to Iran and agreed to an absurd nuclear deal that allows Iran, which has pledged “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” to be completely free to build nukes as early as 2024. Biden, you may recall, also signaled weakness when he urged Obama not to go after Osama Bin Laden.  During the 2020 presidential campaign, candidate Biden criticized President Trump’s tough stance on China.

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No area highlights the disastrous results of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy outlook as much as the Middle East.  Recall a distant time the media considers shrouded in antiquity (last year!) when dramatic improvements between the Jewish State and its neighbors were being made. Solid U.S. support dissuaded substantive attacks it.

But Biden’s Progressive-inspired support for the Palestinians and the bizarre tilt towards Iran altered that paradigm. John Kerry’s betrayal of Israel in his dealings with Iran was just the tip of the iceberg.  For decades, Leftists, who have extensive influence on the Biden Administration, have pushed the anti-Israel “BDS” (Boycott, Disinvestment, Sanction) agenda, a signal to Hamas and other groups that the Jewish state does not have the full backing of the current Administration.

As China edges closer to Hawaii, Russia moves towards another annexation, and Iran accelerates its proxy war on Israel, all explosive (literally and figuratively) issues, the U.S. media remains quiescent. The explanation isn’t hard to understand. Although defense spending accounts for only about 14% of all federal spending, the Left sees every dollar spent on it as a dollar taken away from the domestic programs that it counts on to persuade their voting base to continue voting for it.

Photo: The Guard of Honor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) take part in the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War on Red Square in Moscow. (Xinhua/Bai Xueqi)

CHINA

The US is deeply concerned about the rapid expansion of the China’s nuclear capabilities, including its development of novel delivery systems, according to Price. “These developments underscore that the PRC, as we’ve said before, is deviating from its decades-long nuclear strategy based on minimum deterrence,” he noted.

As of the end of September has launched at least 250 ballistic missiles this year. The latest test is of a hypersonic missile that circled the globe before landing near its target. Price said that “All of this is concerning, especially concerning, I should say, given the PRC’s lack of transparency into its evolving nuclear posture. And this nuclear buildup just, in our view, reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures with the PRC to reduce nuclear risk.’ The Biden Administration has reached out to Beijing, he added, to make it clear Washington is interested in engaging with Beijing in the context of these powerful weapons and weapons systems.

HONG KONG

The United States remains seriously concerned at the continued erosion of human rights and fundamental freedoms, including political participation, in Hong Kong. Recently, there has been an increase in politically-motivated prosecutions, including through the National Security Law, targeting Hong Kong’s teachers, labor unions, lawyers, journalists, health care workers, student unions, and individual citizens.  Ned Price, Spokesman for the State Department stated that the is calling on the “Beijing and Hong Kong authorities to release those unjustly detained and cease their crackdown on peaceful civil society organizations.”  

Hong Kong authorities continue to disqualify scores of pro-democracy district councilors, who received their public mandate from free and fair elections in 2019. He pointed out that these retroactive and targeted disqualifications, based on the Hong Kong authorities’ arbitrary determination that these district councilors’ loyalty oaths are invalid, prevent people in Hong Kong from participating meaningfully in their own governance. Chinese President Xi Jinping has increased its harsh treatment of Hong Kong amid increasing tensions across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea.

EUROPEAN UNION

Secretary of State Tony Blinken and High Representative Borrell of the EU recently met and agreed to further strengthen their joint engagement in the Western Balkans in support of the region’s progress on its European path.  In a statement issued by the State Department this week, Blinken said “We underscore our full support for the EU’s enlargement process.  EU accession, a stated priority for the whole Western Balkans, helps consolidate democratic institutions, protect fundamental rights, and advance the rule of law. This region belongs in the European Union.” From a US perspective, closer integration will enhance stability and contribute to prosperity for the people of the region. In contrast, Moscow sees this as further evidence of Western intrusion into its sphere of influence and an increase in, and direct threat to, its national security. 

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EQUADOR

Secretary Blinken traveled to Equador this past week to talk with its US partners about what the Biden Administration calls the listening tour of its “Build Back Better World Program” to make investments, particularly in climate-resilient infrastructure projects, with high environmental as well as labor standards. Blinken says “That’s going to create jobs, it’s going to support local communities, it’s going to make progress against the climate crisis – all at the same time.”   

NORTH KOREA

The US is continuing to work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. US Special Representative Kim emphasized Washington’s condemnation of the DPRK’s October 19 ballistic missile launch, which violates multiple UN Security Council resolutions, and called on the DPRK to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue. Kim again expressed the United States’ support for providing humanitarian aid to the most vulnerable North Koreans.

IRAN

Frustration continues between reporters and the State Department. When questioned by a reporter at a press briefing this week about the status of the JCPOA, State Department Spokesman Price said the US is neither optimistic, nor pessimistic. To clarify the issue, he added: “We are taking into account precisely what we are hearing from the Iranians, what we are not hearing from the Iranians, what we are seeing from the Iranians, what we are not seeing from the Iranians.” Price added that the US is “in the midst of – in the midst of watching closely as the Iranians, it seems, form their own consensus as to what path they would like to choose.” Perhaps, this is as clear the Biden Administration can get?

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. during the Reagan Administration.

Dead reckoning was once commonly used by sailing ships to determine how far a boat had traveled and at what angle. By taking numerous readings, and using the last known position as a guidepost, a captain could identify his current location. It allowed him to plot a course across great expanses of ocean. When it comes to relations with China, the United States is like a captain who failed to take readings along the journey and now has no idea where he is or what lies ahead. 

For more than 30 years Washington assumed China would emerge as a friendly nation and join the international rules-based system that has stabilized the rest of the world for hundreds of years. It is, after all, what other forward-looking, great nations have done over the centuries. The leaders in Washington, however, are not examining the historic signposts or correctly analyzing the trajectory of the bilateral  relationship. Today the world faces a belligerent communist giant determined to remake the world in its image. China’s modern-day emperor is its president, Xi Jinping. Not unlike the emperors in the post-Warring States Period (475-221 BC), Xi views China as the center of the world. His policies and long-term goals reflect his intention if only someone had “dead reckoned” China’s hegemonic course.

Washington, and the rest of the democratic world, chose to believe China was three-to-four generations of military technology behind the West. At the State Department after the US normalized relations with Beijing, more than one senior leader assured those who would listen that the communist state “would not catch up to the US  in our lifetime.” It turned out that this was not the case. China may have been a grain-importing nation under Deng Xiaoping, but today under President Xi China’s space program is on par with the West. Its submarines, ships, and planes travel the oceans and China is trading aggressively with most nations around the world using stolen and home-grown intellectual property. Washington continues to act “shocked” by China’s technological advances as if there was no indication that a communist state could evolve to produce it. Washington needs to recognize that Xi Jinping is destabilizing the world and the Biden Administration is complicit. 

This week Demetri Sevastopulu and Kathrin Hille, writing in the Financial Times, reported that “China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding toward its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise.” Analysts in Washington said the test showed that China “has made outstanding progress” in its hypersonic weapons and is far more advanced that American intelligence assumed was the case. Sevastopulu and Hille quoted several analysts, including one who said “… We have no idea how they did this.” Taylor Fravel, a nuclear weapons policy expert at MIT who is familiar with the Chinese program said that the development of a working hypersonic glide vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead could help China “negate” the US missile defense systems that are designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles. 

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General  Glen VanHerk, head of NORAD, warned a conference where he was speaking recently that the Chinese missile would “provide significant challenges to my NORAD capability to provide threat warning and attack assessment.” Those familiar with the Chinese missile said that, theoretically, it could pose a grave challenge for the US as American defense systems are focused on a potential threat from the north and this missile could instead fly across the South People before striking the US. The test comes at a time when China also is building up its conventional forces and threatening Taiwan with multiple, large military incursions into its air space and territorial waters. At home it has over 200 ballistic missile silos under construction President Xi Jinping is intent on creating a superpower capable of controlling much of the free world.

In an interview in the Financial Times this week, US Representative Michael Gallagher said that the Chinese test should “serve as a call to action.” He noted that “Even more disturbing is the fact that American technology has contributed to the PLA’s hypersonic missile program.” This test flight was number 78 for China. At some point in the not-to-distant future China may decide to activate its troops, ships, planes, and nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles. China may have an emperor, but it is Washington who believes in invisible clothing! It is time we stop acting delusional and learn from history. Gaps in understanding create opportunities for learning. This may be the West’s last chance.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Although China is the principal threat to US national security, Russian political and military antagonism cannot be ignored. On Thursday, the Heritage Foundation released it 2022 Index of US Military Strength. Russia remains high on the list of formidable threats to the United States and Western Europe. According to Alexis Mrachek, a research associate on Russia and Eurasia at the Heritage Foundation, “From the Arctic to the Baltics, Ukraine, and the South Caucasus, and increasingly in the Mediterranean, Russia continues to foment instability in Europe. Despite economic problems, Russia continues to prioritize the rebuilding of its military and funding for its military operations abroad.” Moscow is not retreating. It continues to make efforts to destabilize the NATO alliance and undermine US institutions which it views as threatening to Russia’s national security.

According to the Index, last year Russia spent $61.7 billion on its military and remains in the top five nations in terms of defense spending. What is, perhaps, most significant is how Russia is spending its military budget, which totals 4% of the country’s GDP. Over the last few years President Putin has prioritized modernization of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, as well as completing general upgrades to all branches of its military. Earlier this year Maxim Starchak, of the Jamestown Foundation, wrote that in 2020 Russia completed deployment of 20 launchers armed with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as well as 2 UR-100N UTTH launchers with the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. Although upgrades have been slowed by Covid restrictions and some management and technical issues, Starchak says they have “had relatively little impact on the overall growth of advanced weapons in the nuclear triad.” 

Data in the Index, from an International Institute for Strategic Studies report, states that among the key weapons in Russia’s inventory are 336 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 2,840 main battle tanks, 5,220 armored infantry fighting vehicles, more than 6,100 armored personnel carriers, and more than 4,684 pieces of artillery. Russia’s navy currently has one aircraft carrier and 49 submarines, including 11 equipped with ballistic missiles. Russia also has plans to build 10 more Borei-A–class ballistic submarines. It is a considerable force. Currently, the US has 68 submarines (14 ballistic missile, 50 attack, and 4 cruise-missile). Two submarines must be built each year to maintain the size of the US fleet. The Congressional Budget Office, which evaluates the cost of shipbuilding as part of the DOD budget wrote that “The Navy’s annual shipbuilding plan would cost more than double what has been appropriated over the past 30 years and 24 percent more than annual appropriations during the Cold War. In the 2040s, funding for submarines alone would exceed average overall funding from 1992 to 2021.” While the US must convince Congress to fund it programs, in Russia Putin has an easier time prioritizing military modernization over domestic social welfare programs to meet his goal of restoring  the glory of the Russian empire. 

Mrachek points out that “Russia possesses the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons (including short-range nuclear weapons) among the nuclear powers. It is one of the few nations with the capability to destroy many targets in the US homeland and in US-allied nations as well as the capability to threaten and prevent free access to the commons by other nations.” At this time Russia remains the only state capable of threatening the US homeland with both conventional and nuclear weapons, although China successfully tested an advanced hypersonic glide ballistic missile this year. Russia’s aggressive bellicose behavior, coupled with rising nationalism and its enhanced full range of military capabilities, makes it a formidable adversary should Russia decide to engage with the US. Russia, partnering with China, present a real and present danger to the national security of the United States.

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The Russian air force has 1,160 combat-capable aircraft, compared to 3,318 operated by the United States and 280,000 soldiers backed up by two million in its total reserve force.  From 2010 to 2019, Russia spent approximately 40% of its total military spending on arms procurement. According to Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, writing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists this spring, Putin is “…81 percent of the way through a modernization program to replace all Soviet-era missiles with newer types by the early 2020s on a less-than one-for-one basis.” 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Russian Sukhoi 35

The vigorous exchange of ideas is a great strength of free nations.  Even the most heated debate can frequently produce the best of solutions, so long as all sides are honest in their presentation of their facts and goals.

That honesty does not exist in the Progressive’s presentation of their arguments, neither in the facts they rely on or in the goals they allege to seek. The criticism that would normally meet such dishonesty has been intentionally obscured by a biased media that shares the thinly veiled goal of “Fundamentally transforming” America from a society based on individual rights to one governed by an all-powerful central government based on Marxist principles.

Consider the concepts the Left has pushed:  

Alleging that preventing voter fraud is actually voter suppression.

Asking generations that have not indulged in slavery or segregation to pay reparations to people who have not been the victims of slavery or segregation.

Claiming that America engages in systemic racism despite the reality that there is not a single law, rule, regulation or accepted practice that condones racism.

Maintaining that socialism, which has failed miserably everyplace it has been tried, is preferable to America’s capitalist system which has brought more prosperity to more people than anything else in history.

Claiming that letting dangerous criminals go free on little or no bail, emptying out jails on various excuses, handcuffing the police by either defunding or intimidating them with lawsuits, and allowing criminal cartels practically free access to cross the southern border is not responsible for dramatic increases in crime.

Complaining that adequatelyprotecting the nation from foreign threats is a waste of money.

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Despite the clear irrationality of these positions, Progressives have made startling gains.

A recent Rasmussen Poll  reports that only 50% of American Adults think the United States is a nation with liberty and justice for all. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree, while 11% are not sure.

These absurd concepts would not have gained traction in earlier periods. It is important to understand why they are now succeeding. The descent into disproven economic practices and historically inaccurate views of the United States are the direct result of two key factors: the takeover of public education by radicalized hard-left personnel, and Progressive control of popular entertainment.

An AMAC review found that “America’s schools are being infiltrated by the radical left. Every generation since 1928 has gotten steadily more liberal, with each generation being more liberal than the previous. This is a direct result of left-wing indoctrination in America’s schools, and it is not a coincidence… According to a 2018 Gallup poll, just 45% of millennials view capitalism positively. To the contrary, 51% of millennials view socialism positively. This means that young Americans largely support socialism over capitalism. These views conflict with the views of every single other generation of Americans. Just 28% of the Silent Generation, 30% of Baby Boomers, and 41% of Generation X view socialism positively.”

 NBC Today  notes that “If you got to a movie theater right now, there’s a pretty good chance that the film you see will have been partially financed in China.” Correspondent Ronan Farrow outlined how that influences the scripts of the movies Americans watch.”

Politico provides another example of the interrelationship between Chinese companies buying major stakes in Hollywood and Beijing’s political goals. Dalian Wanda is a Chinese firm that has intimate ties to the Chinese Communist Party, and it is intent on making major purchases of Hollywood assets.

Much of the influence Progressives have gained in the 21^st Century is owed to the support they have received from China.

Last September, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Warned about China’s “influence operations” in colleges, think tanks and even local governments.

Illustration: Pixabay