Month: September 2021

Putin is not quite as ecstatic as some analysts in Washington might like to believe since the US departure from Afghanistan. The Biden Administration’s botched withdrawal has not only destabilized the Central Asian country but also raised the risk of conflict throughout Central Asia. That is not good for Russian national security or for Putin’s plans to revitalize the “Motherland” to its long-gone days of strength and glory. While the United States was occupied with the war in Afghanistan Putin was freer to operate in the North Caucuses and elsewhere without much concern about pushback from the United States. While it leaves Russia along with China, India, and Pakistan, in a preeminent position to influence the Taliban since August 15, Putin is scrambling to protect Russia’s interests in country and the nearby Central Asian states.

Over the years Russia has maintained a close relationship with factions of the Taliban leadership. He has hosted them at meetings in Moscow since 2019. Putin now needs to ensure that the more extreme of those factions will not oppose Moscow’s influence in the Central Asian states. He doesn’t want to see support for groups that might arouse rebelliousness among Russia’s Muslim minority communities grow in confidence. Finally, Putin knows that claims of victory by the Taliban could create a spillover immigration issue inside the former Soviet border states if they enflame local Muslim separatists. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analysts for Novaya Gazeta, points out that the Central Asian states tend to be pro-Western regimes that are rich in natural resources, including gas, oil, and gold.  That he argues, “could make Central Asia go up in flames.”  Felgenhaurer points to factions that would welcome it, saying that it might take the form of an insurgency, a propaganda movement supported by a Muslim Brotherhood-style group or outright physical conflict.

An active Sunni Muslim insurgency would not only ignite the former Soviet states, but also unite them against Putin. It puts Putin in a dangerous situation. Russia has interests on the ground in the region that include military space force communications installations, such as the Nurak Military Observatory located only 63 miles from the Afghan border in the mountains of Tajikistan. This site, in operation since the Soviet era, has been upgraded numerous times and is critical to the Russian space program. Its low-light remote location, along with recent expensive technical upgrades, make it unlikely that Putin could afford to replace it. 

Although the Taliban has indicated to Putin that they will not incite problems for Russia in Central Asia, analysts in Moscow are unsure that the group can maintain adequate control over Afghan territory to ensure independent jihadist groups won’t create security problems. Russia has increased the ground troop strength of its “motor-rifle division” at the 101^st base in Central Asia. Although it is now a fully-staffed division that is highly disciplined, it will have challenges if it has to defend against an insurgency along a lightly defended, long border area in Tajikistan. Felgenhaurer suggests that Russia also might have to deal with small groups of insurgents affiliated with ISIS that cause unrest among the local populations.

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Russia’s ambassador is remaining active in Kabul although Moscow is not seeking anything from the country other a stabilized situation in the region. Reports indicate that at an August 23 meeting in Moscow, Putin in true Russian fashion, slammed his fist on the table saying – no Americans, no American bases or drone operations are to be allowed and no anti-terrorism cooperation with Washington. Putin is reported to be genuinely unhappy that a population, not a government, was able to succeed in overthrowing Afghanistan’s rulers in a region that could serve as the head of a spear for other movements. It serves as a powerful demonstration, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation, of a Taliban comeback in an area where other Taliban sympathizers may become more widespread. 

Another aspect not generally reported in the news is that the Taliban are running low on money to run the country. It is a strong indicator that the Taliban will be turning to increased drug trafficker to bring in much needed funds in the short run. The drug trade in northern Afghanistan moves the product across both the northern and southern borders of the country and, eventually into the Russian federation and Europe. Putin will not be able to ignore the flow of heroin into his country. He has urged the heads of the Central Asian states to increase their border security, but it is not a very effective strategy against the drug traffickers. It leaves the Russian leader and Central Asian states in a precarious position going forward. The coming months will determine if the Taliban are able to govern the fractured country, maintain a semblance of security over the population, and avert a major conflict in the region that could draw in the great powers.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy.

Picture: Pixabay

China’s military technology, often stolen from the West, is advancing rapidly to a level where the communist giant can in many areas compete on par with the United States. The Biden Administration’s failed withdrawal from Afghanistan further helps Beijing’s efforts to obtain the latest and most sophisticated Western military weapons and technical information in the field. Despite rendering armored vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment left behind unusable, the Chinese still can obtain important information through their Taliban partners on how the US builds new weapons and the equipment’s vulnerabilities, according to several military technology experts with knowledge of what was left in country. Patrick Tucker, writing in Defense One, says to “Expect the Chinese military to use this windfall to create—and export to client states—a new generation of weapons and tactics tailored to US vulnerabilities,” according to several experts who spent years building, acquiring, and testing some of the equipment that the Taliban now controls. 

The loss goes beyond the Taliban literally obtaining a whole air force. By acquiring the advanced systems through their Taliban partners, China now will be able to pierce the veil of secrecy surrounding how US military  technology works. According to Josh Lospinoso of Shift 5, a cyber security company, military vehicles with command, control, and communications equipment that is more penetrable is kept safe through restricted acquisition programs. China can now impact US military operations for years to come as it would be too expensive for the US Government to retool everything left behind in Afghanistan.

The C-130 transport aircraft recently “acquired” by the Taliban can carry tanks, troops, and airdrop as much as 42,000 pounds of military equipment using a short runway. If any of the plane’s electronics were left working or less than fully destroyed, the C-130 could become a fast-track lab for how to build, test, and conduct cyber-warfare against similar equipment owned and operated by the United States. It is long known that China reverse-engineers the technology it steals from the United States. Some of the equipment that DOD provided to Afghanistan is so sensitive that it came with the understanding that the Afghan government must be kept under guard in gated areas to protect American secrets. China doesn’t have to steal it. The gates in Afghanistan are wide open, and China is walking in unescorted. According to Georgianna Shea, an expert in military technologies, once physically acquired there is little the Biden Administration can do to stop China from discovering our vulnerabilities. She believes that is may be accomplished within hours when the hacker is skilled. 

This is not unknown to the US Government. The GAO, in its March 2021 High-Risk Series Update, reports that significant attention is “needed to improve the federal government’s management of information technology acquisitions and operations to ensure the nation’s cybersecurity.” When a military system is knocked out US troops on the ground, in general, are not trained in how to fix it. Acquiring our technology could provide China will a clear advantage in the field in the future. It also is likely to improve Beijing’s understanding of US interoperability with our foreign military partners, including NATO Member countries, at a time when the Sino-Russian relationship is united against the Western powers. 

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Beijing recognizes the value of the information, has cozied up to the Taliban, and is sending financial aid to Afghanistan to cement its position there. China is aggressive in its foreign relations and military prowess of late. Even Moscow has accused China of hacking state targets in Russia for the last 10 years despite their cosmetically friendly relationship. The West needs to recognize this is how China has managed to skip the cost and time to jump multiple generations of technological development ahead and closed the gap with the West. The failed withdrawal from Afghanistan has Great Power implications that are likely to last a generation and further support China’s goal of obtaining hegemonic power and to, as President Xi Jinping often states, remake the world in China’s image. The West knows what the communist giant  is doing. The only remaining question is what are WE going to do about it.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: C130 (file picture, DoD)

Perhaps the most controversial issue related to the United States military in history has erupted. Reports indicate that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley intended to subvert the chain of command by promising to telegraph his Chinese counterparts then-President Trumps’ potential military actions.

In doing so, he both ran afoul of the Constitutional prerogatives of the elected president, as well as giving aid to the enemy, a treasonable offense.

Milley become the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on October 1, 2019. He is the nation’s highest-ranking military officer, and the principal military advisor to the President, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Council.

In response,Trump has stated that Milley should immediately resign and “be replaced with someone who is actually willing to defend our military from the leftist radicals who hate our country and flag”.

The outrage isn’t confined to the former Commander-in-Chief.

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In a letter to President Biden, Senator Marco Rubio wrote “I write with grave concern regarding recent reporting that General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, worked to actively undermine the sitting Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Forces and contemplated a treasonous leak of classified information to the Chinese Communist Party in advance of a potential armed conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These actions by General Milley demonstrate a clear lack of sound judgement, and I urge you to dismiss him immediately. It has been reported that General Milley spoke with his counterpart in the People’s Liberation Army after learning the PRC was worried about escalating tensions as a result of military exercises conducted in the South China Sea. Reportedly, General Milley told his counterpart: “[y]ou and I have known each other for now five years. If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise… A senior military officer interfering with that civilian-controlled process is simply unacceptable at best, and at worst, would cause ambiguity which could lead to war. General Milley has attempted to rationalize his reckless behavior by arguing that what he perceived as the military’s judgement was more stable than its civilian commander. It is a dangerous precedent that could be asserted at any point in the future by General Milley or others. It threatens to tear apart our nation’s longstanding principle of civilian control of the military.”

General Milley has also attracted vehement criticism for his role in the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle. The operation was clearly bungled by the White House. According to some reports, Milley and his staff did not engage in sufficient action to persuade Biden away from his erroneous course. Military personel I have spoken to have said that the moral thing to do would be to threaten resignation if the plans were not altered.

Apparently, however, there is a significant meeting of the minds between Biden and his top officer.  The President has stated “I have great confidence in General Milley.”  White House spokesperson Jen Psaki added to that later, telling reporters that Biden admires Milley’s “leadership, his patriotism, and his fidelity to our constitution.”

Under Milley’s leadership, criticism of the Pentagon has dramatically increased, as observers have noted that there appears to be more emphasis on political activities rather than actual defense. Military.com reported this summer that Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Tx) “…launched a webpage … inviting service members to anonymously blow the whistle on ‘woke ideology’ in the military. ‘Enough is enough,’ he wrote on Twitter when announcing the website. ‘We won’t let our military fall to woke ideology… For too long, progressive Pentagon staffers have been calling the shots for our warfighters, and spineless military commanders have let it happen.”

Photo: Department of Defense

America is in the midst of a dramatic attempted alteration to the balance of power between Washington and the states, as well as the federal government and individual citizens. The national government will have extraordinary power to determine your property rights, transportation options, purchasing choices, and even how you vote.

Some of the moves have been made using the pandemic as an excuse. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has accused Biden of constructing a “biomedical security state.”

In addition to the pandemic, environmental extremism is an excuse used by Progressive authoritarians.

The Green New Deal, a key effort by Leftist Democrats, would substantially place almost every activity under Washington’s purview. Matthew Harwood, writing for Reason, warns that “… we should…pay close attention to the plan’s authoritarian impulses… If proponents of the Green New Deal are serious—and there’s no reason to doubt them—then they’re proposing … a militaristic America where Uncle Sam’s heavy hand intervenes in all aspects of life, curtailing individual freedom in pursuit of their collectivist goals…They want the power to regiment a society of nearly 330 million people in pursuit of a pipe dream they liken to a war for survival.”

The Progressive power grab, aside from the particulars of imposing heavy-handed measures, is openly and clearly unconstitutional. It colludes with social media giants to limit the First Amendment rights of those it disagrees with and argues against the Second, Ninth and Tenth Amendments  Those Amendments that serve as the ultimate safeguard against the amassing of power in Washington. The Second allows citizens the right of self defense. The Ninth and Tenth Amendments are clear and unambiguous: those powers not specifically given to the federal government are reserved to the people and the states.

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Once these moves have been made, the safety valve of having the ability to vote authoritarian miscreants out of office will not be available. A move is afoot to unlawfully impose federal will on how elections are conducted, a power that Constitutionally rests with the states. The misleadingly named “For the People Act”  is an overtly partisan bill that amounts to a clear federal takeover of state election laws, stripping away vital anti-fraud measures that states have established.

 It would, as Senator Wicker (R-Mississippi) stresses, ban voter ID requirements, which are popular nationwide and have passed in most states, including Democrat-run states like Connecticut and Rhode Island. It would force states to allow “ballot harvesting,” an illicit practice whereby party operatives can deliver stacks of ballots to the polls without supervision. it would also require states to allow Election Day registration and universal mail-in voting. Americans are coming out against this bill when they learn what it actually does.  A recent poll showed that 83 percent of Americans are concerned about ballot harvesting, 81 percent are concerned about Election Day registration without photo ID, and 71 percent are concerned about universal mail-in voting.

 Making these moves all the more disturbing is the reality that the citizenry isn’t even aware of who is actually making the decisions at the White House—the elected President, or the extremist fringes of the Democrat Party. The New York Post Editorial Board recently observed “America is now being ruled not by President Joe Biden but a small, radical minority that couldn’t care less about the US Constitution. Biden made that clear when he caved to the Squad … and pushed his Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ban evictions once again — knowing full well he was likely breaking the law and violating his oath of office.”

Biden himself has noted that the move is Constitutionally questionable, though that didn’t stop him of approving it.

There is, belatedly, a recognition that the United States has committed a near-fatal error in allowing its once superior naval position to rapidly deteriorate.  China now has a distinct advantage in the Indo-Pacific, and Russia feels free to harass both America and its allies in other portions of the globe. Indeed, the Russian Navy recently engaged in threatening war games off the coast of Hawaii, and China has taken over the strategic island of Kiribati, midway between Pearl Harbor and Australia.  Despite this, there appears to be a worrisome lack of concern for the disaster that the loss of sea power is bringing to both American national security and global commerce.

Christopher Dougherty, writing for the authoritative War on the Rocks  publication, warns that “The U.S. Navy is on the verge of strategic bankruptcy. Its fleet isn’t large enough to meet global day-to-day demands for naval forces. Due to repeated deployments and maintenance backlogs, the fleet also isn’t ready enough to meet these demands safely, nor can it quickly surge in an emergency. Finally, the fleet isn’t capable enough to meet the challenges posed by China’s increasingly modern and aggressive People’s Liberation Army Navy. How did this happen to a force that, as recently as two decades ago, dominated the world’s oceans to a degree perhaps unequalled in human history? The answer is gradually and then suddenly. Myriad authors have responded to the Biden administration’s Fiscal Year 2022 defense budget request with a mix of confusion and consternation. Critics have directed their ire, in particular, at the budget’s treatment of the Navy…”

Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Michael Gilday has testified  that “The competition at sea intensifying. China and Russia are rapidly mobilizing their militaries, attempting to undermine our alliances, integrating the free and the open order. The Chinese battle force is the largest in the world and it is growing. Backed by a robust industrial base and the biggest shipbuilding infrastructure in the world, they command a modern fleet of surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, and next-generation fighters. Furthermore, they are strengthening their space capabilities and stockpiling an arsenal of long-range missiles to hold us and our partners — and our allies and partners at risk. China is deliberately modernizing for the 21st century and is building an all-domain capabilities to rival our own….The results of analysis over the past five years inside and outside the Pentagon have been consistent and they’ve been clear: America needs a larger, more capable fleet. …the Navy’s buying power is less than it was in 2010. Back then we had 288 ships, today we have 296. Given these factors, if the Navy’s top line remains flat or if it goes down, the size of our fleet will definitely shrink.”

A Congressional Research Service report discloses that “China’s navy, which [it] has been steadily modernizing for more than 25 years, since the early to mid-1990s, has become a formidable military force within China’s near-seas region, and it is conducting a growing number of operations in more-distant waters, including the broader waters of the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe.

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“China’s navy is viewed as posing a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War.

 “China’s navy forms a key element of a Chinese challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific. Some U.S. observers are expressing concern or alarm regarding the pace of China’s naval shipbuilding effort and resulting trend lines regarding the relative sizes and capabilities of China’s navy and the U.S. Navy. China’s naval modernization effort encompasses a wide array of ship, aircraft, and weapon acquisition programs, as well as improvements in maintenance and logistics, doctrine, personnel quality, education and training, and exercises…. The issue for Congress is whether the U.S. Navy is responding appropriately to China’s naval modernization effort.”

Jerry Hendrix, in a National Review examination, urges the U.S. to make a “conscious decision to pivot back to being a sea power…The world we created in not the world that China and Russia wish to live in. Its very openness and expansive freedoms threaten the domestic stability of these authoritarian powers, which recognize that the free sea can no longer be defended by the [shrunken] U.S. Navy.”

Photo: The guided-missile destroyer Qiqihar (Hull 121) attached to a destroyer flotilla with the navy under the PLA Northern Theater Command fires its close-in weapons system during a maritime live-fire test on June 7, 2021. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Hailong)

It is increasingly clear that the United States faces unprecedented threats from abroad. It is also evident that the threats are becoming coordinated.

In April, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov warned President Joe Biden against assisting Ukraine, the subject of Moscow’s expansionist activities. The same month, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lijian warned the White House about providing assistance to Taiwan.

The Office of Director of National Intelligence has sounded the alarm about the massive danger the U.S. currently faces:

Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies… China is…challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms. Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force. Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages. Major adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction.”

The stringent warnings are not being taken seriously by the Biden Administration, which is advocating a defense budget that doesn’t even keep up with inflation.

U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), and Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) Ranking Members of the House Armed Services Committee, have expressed deep concern: 

Rogers and Calvert stress that “China already has a larger Navy, more troops, more missiles, and more hypersonics than we do…Unfortunately, President Biden’s proposed FY2022 defense budget sends the wrong message to our allies and our adversaries. By failing to keep pace with inflation, the President’s budget amounts to a cut of over $4 billion in defense spending. Meanwhile, his budget proposes to increase non-defense spending by a massive $104 billion or 16 percent.

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“The bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission was very clear: to fully implement the National Defense Strategy, overcome threats from China and other adversaries, and recover from austere budgets in the Obama years, we need to grow our defense spending by three to five percent above inflation from 2022-2025. This year’s defense budget should be above the rate of inflation and entirely focused on deterring the threats from near peer adversaries. Instead, this budget, should it pass in its current form, would cede our military superiority to China and return us to a hollow force, unable to respond to events around the world, whether it’s conflict or humanitarian missions.

“The Biden administration lacks a coherent and effective defense strategy. His budget falls short of meeting the requirements of the great power competition we face. Even worse, this budget is the product of the progressive left’s dream to “defund the Pentagon.”  While China and Russia plot the downfall of American and liberal democracies globally, President Biden’s progressive budget-driven strategy fails to meet the needs of the nation, shortchanges our military, endangers our allies, and invites chaos into the world.”

Rogers outlined the impact of the White House’s inadequate budget on one branch of the armed forces:

“The Army is facing cuts of 12 percent in procurement; 10 percent in research and development; and 18 percent in military construction.  The Army has nearly $5.5 billion in unfunded priorities. The budget cuts procurement of critical vertical lift and ground vehicle programs.  It buys fewer missiles and ammunition to replenish our arsenal.  And it delays the modernization of existing assets, such as the Abrams tank. These cuts worsen current capability gaps. And I’m concerned it leaves the Army ill-equipped for a near-term conflict.”

The Report concludes tomorrow

Photo: Russian tanks (Russian Defence Ministry photo)

AFGHANISTAN

The Biden Administration has been roundly criticized by both major political parties in the US and by world leaders overseas for its failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. This week Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the media that, despite earlier claims to the opposite, the US is continuing to facilitate the departure of Americans from the country. In a written statement on Friday Blinken said “…today we facilitated the departure from Afghanistan of 21 U.S. citizens and 11 Lawful Permanent Residents (LPRs). via an overland route.” A Qatar Airways charter flight also departed Kabul with 19 U.S. citizens aboard.  When asked to comment on reports of beatings and lashings of civilians by the Taliban, State Department Spokesman New Price responded “…as I said before, we are not going to make sweeping categorical judgments just yet.” He left open the question of “when” the Biden Administration intended to take a stand.

RUSSIA

Russia announced the recent completion of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. When asked by a reporter if the US still intended to prevent the pipeline from becoming operational, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said “We’ve said it before and we’ll continue to say it again: We believe that this is a bad deal, and we continue to oppose this pipeline as a Russian geopolitical project that’s a bad deal for Europe and, of course, that undercuts the energy security for a major part of the Euro-Atlantic community.” Price was unable to explain how the US would proceed to shut it down before it becomes operational. 

When a reporter this week asked if the US is getting closer to go back to Vienna to resume talks, Price said that after Special Envoy Malley’s trip to Russia “The special envoy did tweet. He said his conversations in Moscow were good, they were productive.” It now appears tweets form the substance of diplomatic communications.

ISRAEL

When Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Naftali Bennett met with settlers he told them that he will not stop or freeze West Bank settlement construction. When asked about the US position on his statement State Department Spokesperson Jalina Porter said, “We’ve said it before and we’ll – it’s worth repeating that we believe it’s critical for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to refrain from any unilateral steps that would exacerbate tensions and also undercut efforts to advance a negotiated two-state solution.”  

“We have said it again and will continue to say it” appears to be the new mantra at the State Department.

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ETHIOPIA

Ned Price, Department Spokesperson, said the United States remains gravely concerned by ongoing conflict in multiple regions of Ethiopia.  He added that “reports of continued human rights abuses and atrocities by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara regional and irregular forces, the TPLF and other armed groups, including the reported attack on civilians in one village in Amhara region this week, are deeply disturbing.” The Department condemned the abuses against civilians and called on all parties to the conflict to “respect human rights and comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law.”

IRAN

When Price was asked about the status of the JCPOA, he pointed out that it is not up to the United States to characterize Iran’s timetable statements. He added “ It is up to us to say that we would like to see those negotiations restart as soon as possible so we can test the proposition as to whether the – a mutual return to compliance is still within the realm of possibility.” Top date the Iranians have not told the United States if, or when, they intend to restart the nuclear safeguard talks.

NORTH KOREA

There has been extensive reporting recently from independent analysts about denuclearization at Yongbyon’s reactors. When asked about the reports, Price said that the US is aware of them and that the US believes “the best way to make progress towards that is with dialogue with the DPRK so that we can address the issues raised in this report but also the fuller set of issues related to denuclearization.” He added that the US is prepared to engage in diplomacy.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

China is aware of the power and size of the United States and the English language. US media and politicians are not particularly familiar with the Middle Kingdom. Few Americans speak Mandarin, China’s official language. Even before Covid hit, not many Americans attended Chinese universities. Bluntly stated, the US is not fully prepared to compete globally with the emerging Chinese threat. President Xi Jinping openly derides Washington at every opportunity. He deliberately points to “human rights,” “freedom,” and “democracy” as Western bourgeois values that communist China will never accept. Since few Americans read or understand spoken Mandarin they don’t know about his thoughts on these subjects. His domestic speeches and documents are rarely translated into English. Americans  might be shocked by ideological topics covering issues such as Xi’s  recent “Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era.”

On September 2, People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) newspaper published the 34^th of a series of articles in Mandarin and approved by Xi, that cover his domestic speeches and writings. The latest article explains why the communist giant needs to take a proactive and clear stand against the “universal values of the West.” When Xi writes of universal values he is referring to “the values of freedom,” “democracy,” and “human rights,” according to Massimo Introvigne, an Italian sociologist of religions and founder and managing director of the Center for Studies on New Religions in Italy. 

It is important that American gain a realistic understanding of China today and where Xi intends to take his country in the future. He is a very orthodox Marxist who believes that bourgeois liberalism will be defeated by Marxist socialism, says Introvigne. The values and freedoms the United States holds in high esteem, according to Xi, “have increasingly become tools for maintaining the rule of capital” throughout the West. China is skilled in the use of propaganda. Xi praised the US this week by likening US support for universal values to a “clever” strategy by Washington to package and promote them globally.

Xi argues there are no “universal values” that are applicable throughout history. He says that in the past democracy, human rights, and freedom were useful, but today are no longer valid and must be liquidated by socialism. Did the leader of the largest communist country on earth just invalidate all that we stand for, our American way of life, the very essence of what is important to each individual in this country and yet no one in the US media covered it with outrage? 

President Xi’s words won’t be translated by the American media, reported on the front page of any Western newspaper, and certainly they won’t be heard on the evening network news shows. Promoting these universal values, according to Xi, should be exposed as “causing harm.” Why do the media and politicians overlook these accusations when the leader of a rising power antithetical to everything the US and the West believes in states them as fact? Xi Jinping is celebrated by other dictators at the United Nations when he declines to grant his own citizens human rights, freedom, and democracy. That also  won’t find its way into the mainstream media.  

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The 34^th article also reveals that the Chinese leader said it is no accident there are no human rights, freedom, or democracy in China because they are not embraced by the CCP and never will be part of the Party’s ideology, just as they were not claimed to be a part of the German Nazi tradition. Will the West, and the United States in particular, listen when the leader of over one billion people says he and his country will never respect the values treasured by the West? 

“Chinese media … are dominated by “Party History Study,” which is required homework for all Chinese in the year 2021, which marks the 100^th anniversary of the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party. The whole country is mobilized to learn the history of the CCP. Not only in schools, but in offices, factories, and pretty much everywhere there will be exams testing the proficiency citizens have achieved in learning CCP’s history,” according to Introvigne. It is time American politicians start listening and the media start reporting on Xi Jinping’s plan for remaking the West… before Mandarin becomes the primary business language of the world.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: China Seaborne attack vehicle (China Defence Ministry)

The former Soviet republics in Central Asia matter to the Russian Heartland today and they also should be of concern to the United States. Afghanistan, a part of that Heartland, is only 300 miles from the Indian Ocean Rimland, according to Robert D. Kaplan, writing in The Spectator. He argues that the failed US withdrawal from Afghanistan significantly changes the geopolitical environment with the US now concentrating on the outlying areas in Asia rather than those closer to Russia. The two regions, he points out, will converge in the coming years into a Greater Central Asia connected by new transportation corridors, extensive pipelines, and other modernized infrastructure.

Russian military and security services and Russian-language speakers remain dominant in Central Asia over those from China, but the eastern communist giant is making major economic inroads in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although Russia is partnering with China in many areas, the balance slowly is changing in favor of Beijing, despite Moscow’s efforts to maintain a relationship with the Taliban. In the near future it may be left to the United States to maintain a fragile diplomatic balance between the two communist giants by denying them both their desired hegemonic status in the region. 

Over the last decade Russia has worked to repair its relationship with Pakistan, weakened by Islamabad’s courting of Washington after the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Their military leaders now hold high level visits and they have restarted arms sales. The Islamabad-Moscow security partnership has strengthened and expanded while at the same time US relations with Pakistan have worsened. Russia has benefited from the political vacuum in recent years, enabling it to renew military exchange  programs, training, and joint naval exercises. While Russia’s efforts are reaping results in Pakistan, it still faces risks in other parts of the region.

There are co-ethnic communities on both sides of Afghanistan’s border. Russia and the other Central Asian nations fear Afghan refugees would engender unrest inside their borders and have, thus far, refused to resettle them in the local communities. Russian political analysts also have raised concerns in Moscow that the Taliban victory may inspire Islamic extremist groups inside Russia itself. Paul Goble, of the Jamestown Foundation, points out that Russian “officials worry that Taliban or Taliban-influenced activists are likely to work to promote drug trafficking throughout Russia to fill the depleted government coffers in Kabul.” Moscow, like China, has been slow to recognize the new Taliban-led government. What at first glance may appear to be an indirect victory for Russia comes with many risks and potentially destabilizing factors. 

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C. Raja Mohan, writing in Foreign Policy this week, says that the Taliban victory has pushed India closer to the United States and may deepen its rift with Russia. Closer to Moscow, Tiblisi, Georgia has opened its airport to become a major transit point for Afghan refugees, according to Goble. Yet the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Georgia responded to the accusations saying that “Russian news agencies are spreading disinformation that Tbilisi and Georgia allegedly gave shelter to Afghan refugees and that we allegedly turned Tbilisi into a refuge for those fleeing Afghanistan.”  He highlighted that reference, in reality, “is to only tens of employees of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, International Republican Institute, Asian Development Bank and other international organizations functioning in Afghanistan, whose evacuation to Georgia is carried out in close coordination with international partners. Those persons will remain in Georgia for a few hours and then they will travel to the countries of their destination.” Armenian officials inside Azerbaijan in “Artsakh Republic” (Karabakh) says refugees were sent there to give Moscow trouble. Rumors are rampant and stoking the flames of fear among Russians in the borderlands. Goble notes that David Babayan, the “foreign minister” of that entity, which is currently protected by Russian peacekeepers, has alleged that “Azerbaijan has transferred militants from Afghanistan to the portions of Karabakh it controls” to destabilize the area and threaten violence and that this process has been assisted by Turkey.

The Russian propaganda machine may be celebrating the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a complete breakdown of US foreign policy and a win for Moscow,  but Putin knows conflict in the region is far from over.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

“The Thing to do is to get a man at first to value social justice…and then work him on to the stage at which he values Christianity because it may produce social justice…Men or nations who think they can revive the Faith in order to make a good society might as well think they can use the stairs of Heaven as a short cut to the nearest chemist’s shop…” CS Lewis, The Screwtape Letters, Chapter XXIII

The Papacy of Francis has not been without controversy.  “In October 2020, while being interviewed for the documentary ‘Francesco’ about his life, Francis made a full-throated endorsement of same-sex civil unions…setting off global shock waves.  ‘Homosexual people have the right to be in a family. They are children of God,’ the pontiff said…’What we have to have is a civil union law; that way, they are legally covered.'”    Shortly thereafter, the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, described by USA Today as “the Vatican’s Orthodoxy office,” stated that “(t)he Catholic Church and its priests cannot bless same-sex unions because God ‘cannot bless sin…(t)he blessing of homosexual unions cannot be considered licit…there are absolutely no grounds for considering homosexual unions to be in any way similar or even remotely analogous to God’s plan for marriage and family.'” 

Francis’ statements on homosexual unions is an outgrowth of his long history of leftist social activism.  “Pope Francis has made his social and economic tendencies clear since the early days of his pontificate… (f)or the Holy Father, inequality is the ‘root of social ills,’ though he fails to explain precisely why a society of unequal wealth but a relatively high standard of living would somehow be less reflective of Gospel values than a society that shares equally in poverty…(in) his message to the Popular Movements in Bolivia (in 2015), Pope Francis demanded rights to land, labor and lodging—one can only imagine how expansive a State’s apparatus would have to be to guarantee all of these, certainly one that would leave precious little space to individual initiative; criticized corporations, banks, free trade agreements and austerity measures as part of an ‘anonymous influence of mammon’; and rushed to the defense of ‘Mother Earth’…which he saw as ‘being pillaged, laid waste and harmed with impunity.’” 

The social activism of the Pope has not been well received by more traditional Catholics.  As described by Victor Codina, SJ, writing in America,  “At present, there is a strong group opposing Francis’ church: laypeople, theologians, bishops and cardinals who would like him to resign or promptly disappear from the scene while they wait for a new conclave to change the current direction of the church…(t)he criticisms of Francis have two dimensions, one theological and the other more socio-political, although (as we will see later) there are instances where these dimensions converge…(overall) opposition to Francis is opposition to the Second Vatican Council and to the evangelical reform of the church that Pope John XXIII wanted to promote.” 

This last point is crucial to understanding the current controversy involving The Socialist Pope.

On July 16, 2021, Pope Francis issued an Apostolic Letter entitled Motu Proprio.  “In order to promote the concord and unity of the Church, (the Pope writes, “with paternal solicitude towards those who in any region adhere to liturgical forms antecedent to the reform willed by the Vatican Council II, my Venerable Predecessors, Saint John Paul II and Benedict XVI, granted and regulated the faculty to use the Roman Missal edited by John XXIII in 1962.  In this way they intended ‘to facilitate the ecclesial communion of those Catholics who feel attached to some earlier liturgical forms’ and not to others.”  

“At this time,” the Holy Father continues, “I have considered it appropriate to establish the following…It belongs to the diocesan bishop, as moderator, promoter, and guardian of the whole liturgical life of the particular Church entrusted to him, to regulate the liturgical celebrations of his diocese. Therefore, it is his exclusive competence to authorize the use of the 1962 Roman Missal in his diocese, according to the guidelines of the Apostolic See….(t)he bishop of the diocese in which until now there exist one or more groups that celebrate according to the Missal antecedent to the reform of 1970…is to determine that these groups do not deny the validity and the legitimacy of the liturgical reform, dictated by Vatican Council II”  

In discussing Motu Proprio, David Gibson, the Director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University, writes that “the outcry from Catholic conservatives and self-styled ‘Traditionalists’ over Pope Francis’s decision to restore restrictions on the unreformed, pre-1970 Latin version of the Mass has been so angry and anguished that it has obscured several important realities about this controversy.  Those realities are critical to understanding this drama of near-schismatic proportions… the pope has not prohibited priests from saying Mass in Latin… What Pope Francis has restricted is the rite that was codified after the Council of Trent (1545-1563) and promulgated by Pope Pius V in 1570. The Second Vatican Council (1962-1965) called for the liturgy to be updated and renewed, and in 1970 – four hundred years after the Tridentine missal – Pope Paul VI promulgated a new missal, the one nearly all Catholics around the world follow at Mass in their own language. Priests can still celebrate ‘the Latin Mass,’ just with the new format and formulas which express a different ecclesiology and theology than the older version.” 

Gibson also denies that in outlawing the Pre-Vatican II version of the mass, “Pope Francis is throttling some burgeoning traditionalist revival of a superior form of Catholicism that will reinvigorate (the) church…(t)he idea that Catholics are pining for the Tridentine Rite is the trend story that never dies. It is the line that (traditionalists) have been feeding everyone for decades, and it was amplified by church leaders like Pope Benedict XVI, who in broadening the use of the old rite in 2007 said that his move was prompted by ongoing requests from around the world and that ‘even young people’ were drawn to it.”

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Yet, contrary to Gibson’s words are the words of Pope Francis himself.  “Pope Francis explained his reasoning for the motu proprio in a letter to the world’s bishops, saying that the expansion of the Latin Mass after Summorum Pontificum did not result in a unified Church. Summorum Pontificum was Pope Benedict XVI’s 2007 apostolic letter which recognized the rights of priests to say the Traditional Latin Mass, and stated they did not need the permission of their local ordinary to offer it.  That 2007 document, Pope Francis said, ‘was exploited to widen the gaps, reinforce the divergences, and encourage disagreements that injure the Church, block her path, and expose her to the peril of division.'” 

In other words, the Pope is throttling a traditionalist revival by prohibiting the use of a mass form that predates Vatican II.

Writing for the Chicago Sun-Times, Steven P Millies describes the situation with precision.  ” To 

non Catholics — and many Catholics — the decision may seem on first glance to be a technical, even obscure action not worth very much attention. But it sent shock waves through the Roman Catholic Church. As a scholar who studies the Catholic Church’s relationship to the 

world, I believe the move may be the most important action Francis has taken in an eventful papacy… (t)he Mass is the central act of Roman Catholic worship. During the earliest centuries of Christianity, there was widespread variation in the Mass. Local irregularities thrived at a time before printed books…(b)ut after the Reformation of the 16th century split the Western Church in two, the Roman Catholic Church regularized the form and the language of the Mass. At the Council of Trent, a gathering of Catholic bishops in northern Italy between 1545 and 1563 prompted by the rise of Protestantism, the Mass was codified…(f)rom that time, the ordinary celebration of the Mass followed a precise format…and was always celebrated in Latin. This Mass held firm in Catholic life for 400 years…until the Second Vatican Council of 1962 to 1965. Also known as Vatican II, the council was convened to address the position of the Catholic Church in the modern world…(a)mong other changes…the Mass was to be translated into local languages.

“(B)efore long, some Catholics began to express misgivings about the new rules regarding Mass, fearing that it changed too much by upending centuries of tradition. One of them was French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre, who refused to conduct the Mass in anything other than Latin, saying, ‘I prefer to walk in the truth without the Pope than to walk a false path with him.’ On another occasion he commented: ‘Our future is the past.’

 “Many people prefer the Latin Mass purely for its beauty, and not all of those people are uncomfortable with Pope Francis’ leadership. But many traditionalists are, and their views are not confined to prayer and Mass. The worldview that many in the traditionalist movement share with someone like Archbishop Lefebvre…is very uncomfortable with the modern world. It does not fit with Francis’ vision of a Catholic Church aligned with open societies and on the side of the oppressed. Traditionalists opposed to Pope Francis have found a refuge inside communities that celebrate the Latin Mass. It has insulated them from the direction in which Francis has been trying to take the church. Restricting the traditional Latin Mass as he has, it seems that that Pope Francis is challenging traditionalists to be part of the same church as he is.” 

Returning to Fr Cordina’s views, the convergence of the two strands of opposition to Francis, the theological and the socio-political, have united in the prohibition of the Pre-Vatican II Latin Mass.  As described by Steven Millies, traditionalist Catholics tend to be politically conservative.  From his endorsement of gay civil unions, to his calls for socialist economic reforms, the Pope has alienated these socially and politically conservative Catholics for years.  Now Francis has found a way to alienate these Catholics theologically as well.

Photo: The Vatican