Month: June 2021

Why send Chinese soldiers to America’s shores to fight an expensive war when it is much easier, and less costly, for Beijing to simply buy US properties near sensitive military installations and purchase businesses that produce products critical to US national security? When China began modernizing its military a couple of decades ago, it started stealing advanced technology from the West and reverse engineered what it needed. It saved on cost and time by helping the communist giant skip generations of development. Now that it on par technologically with the West in many areas, China is taking things a step further.

The Morning Star Ranch in Texas is 140,000 acres, located near Laughlin Air Force Base, and close to a sensitive US border area. It also is owned by a communist who is a former Chinese military official named Sun Guangxin. Sun planned to build a wind and solar farm on the acreage. At first glance it may appear to be an environmentally friendly project without security implications. Upon taking a closer look at this former Chinese military official’s plan, it reveals what he really intended. The project “footprint” represents a potential threat to every American. Sun aimed to hook his solar/wind farm project directly into the Texas power grid. He would have succeeded, too, if not for nearby property owners and members of the Devil’s River Conservancy who were concerned about the environmental impact of the project. Unfortunately, this type of behavior is not an isolated incident.

China has for years been maneuvering its way into American businesses from Hollywood to Wall Street and the defense sector. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements (REE). Last year it processed 140,000 metric tons of the 240,000 produced globally. REE are the 17 rare earth minerals critical to making cell phones vibrate, precision guidance systems for our military weaponry, hospital test equipment, and just about every modern convenience requiring specialized conductive or magnetic material. The United States is wholly dependent on foreign sources for the processing of heavy rare earths (HREE) and very highly dependent on non-US sources for light rare earths (LREE). No firm in the US currently supplies the HREE market. 

China over the last 30 years has sought to control the world ‘s supply of REE. Today it produces 95% of the market and all the REE materials critical to our national defense. Recently a Texas mining company announced plans to build a pilot REE processing facility with the intent of developing a full-scale production facility. It sounded like good news. What the mainstream media overlooked was that only few states away in California a Chinese firm, Shenghe Resources Holding Company, bought about 10% of the United States’ only REE mine at Mountain Pass. Each year the American mine ships about 50,000 metric tons to China for processing before US companies buy back the refined product. The Texas-owned test plant, in comparison, currently is producing only 220 pounds annually. The Defense Department under the Trump Administration began to work on the issue. Little has been done since that time. 

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What weak link in America’s critical infrastructure will the Chinese next discover? Recently East coast drivers felt the impact when foreign hackers effectively shut down gas pipelines on the East coast. One can be sure China was watching and learning. A lab in Wuhan, China unleashed a virus that has killed over 600,000 Americans and millions around the world this past year. No one can say how far China will go to reach the goal stated by Chinese President Xi Jinping. He intends to “remake the world in China’s image.” Earlier today a source told me that all US critical infrastructure has been put on alert. It is not over. The big question looming behind closed doors in Washington is can the Biden Administration handle the job? So far, there are no solutions coming from the White House.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

The elimination of fossil fuels is built on a fantasy that so-called “renewable” sources of energy can supply all energy needs. 80% of energy needs are met by fossil fuels, another 6% by nuclear energy (also unpopular with environmental extremists.) there is no chance that the 14% provided by renewables can be expanded to fill all energy needs.

A correspondent to the Chicago Sun-Times notes that “No country has done more to phase out oil than Germany. But petroleum remains the country’s leading energy source — 35% of the energy mix — a decade after the implementation of its “Energiewende” policy. To meet continued strong demand, Germany imports 98% of the oil it consumes, primarily from Russia. Seventy-eight percent Germany’s energy needs are met by fossil fuels and, as Clean Energy Wire reports, ‘In the midst of the Energiewende, Germany relies still heavily on imports of fossil fuels.’ Germany is proof positive that renewable energy mandates do little, if anything, to reduce petroleum demand.

There is one thing that killing Keystone will accomplish:  it will significantly reduce U.S. employment. Keystone provides employment for 11,000, 8,000 of them union jobs.  The claim by energy czar Kerry that they can be replaced by careers making solar panels is not supported by facts. 

Forbes reports that “Of the top 10 solar panel manufacturers in the world, 8 are Chinese.”

Again, a glance at Germany reveals the fallacy of the environmental extremist’s position.

The Research from the German Trade Union Confederation demonstrates the false hope about “green” employment: “If you only look at the employment that is related to the construction of renewable energy systems, the current balance sheet is sobering. While 300,000 people were still working in this area in 2011, there were only 150,000 employees in 2018 These losses are mainly due to the collapse in photovoltaic production and installation. 132,800 employees were recorded there as the highest level in 2011 There were just 27,300 employees in 2018. But the development of jobs is also dynamic in onshore wind energy. Employment, which has been built up since 2011 in particular, had already been lost by 2018 In 2016 the highest level was reached here with 108,500 employees, while in 2018 it was only 68,000.”

Add to all the above: the unreliability of solar and wind power, as events in both Texas and Germany clearly demonstrated in February.

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A number of explicit facts have challenged the notion that manmade activities are having a significant impact on the Earth’s temperature, starting with the fact that the Earth has continuously experienced climate change, even before humans made their relatively recent appearance.

The data employed to foster the manmade change theory has been shown to be seriously flawed. When “change” advocates generally cite records only a few hundred years old, they ignore extremely relevant information.

From the 10^th to the 14^th centuries, the planet’s temperature was warmer  than that of our time. This period was followed by an era now known as “the Little Ice Age.”  Changes continued, not tied to human activity, and continue still.

As serious as the ignored data has been the intentional falsifying of key science studies. The most well-known case, popularly known as “Climategate,” came to the public’s attention when leaked emails from the University of East Anglia revealed that results of studies were tailored to ignore actual results in favor of propping up the beliefs of global warming theory advocates. It has now been revealed that the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA have fabricated computer modeling of the atmosphere, perhaps in response to political pressure, also to better serve the wishes of climate change advocates.

The Earth’s environment does require attention, and actual harmful activities should be addressed. But the use of ignored facts and falsified data to support incorrect theories can only cause harm. The cynical employment of counterfeit science to pursue political ends–much of the climate change agenda is actually an excuse to implement socialist political goals– is unacceptable.

Illustration: Pixabay

The Biden Administration has discussed declaring a “climate emergency,” which will be a pretext for engaging in the largest government assumption of power over the American economy in history. It also seeks to have the nation re-enter the Paris Climate “Accord,” which in reality is a treaty that was never presented to the U.S. Senate, and has more to do with enacting socialist economic ideals than improving the environment.

There has been a great of criticism over the unprecedented and expensive proposals agreed to as part of the Paris Climate Accord. An Investors.com  review notes that even if climate change was as dire as advocates maintain, the economy-busting Paris Climate Accord would have little impact.  “According to the latest annual UN report on the ‘emissions gap,’ the Paris agreement will provide only a third of the cuts in greenhouse gas that environmentalists claim is needed to prevent catastrophic warming. If every country involved in those accords abides by their pledges between now and 2030 — which is a dubious proposition — temperatures will still rise by 3 degrees C by 2100. The goal of the Paris agreement was to keep the global temperature increase to under 2 degrees.”

The American Enterprise Institute questions the viability of the Paris Climate Accord proposals. “If we apply the EPA climate model under a set of assumptions that strongly exaggerate the effectiveness of international emissions reductions, the Paris emissions cuts, if achieved by 2030 and maintained fully on an international basis through 2100, would reduce temperatures by that year by 0.17 of a degree. The US contribution to that dubious achievement—the Obama climate action plan—would be 0.015 of a degree. Add another 0.01 of a degree if you believe that the Obama pseudo-agreement with China is meaningful. (It is not.) This effort to reduce GHG emissions would impose costs of at least 1 percent of global GDP, or roughly $600 billion to $750 billion or more per year, inflicted disproportionately upon the world’s poor. Would those arguing that the US should preserve the Paris status quo please explain how it can be justified simply as a straightforward exercise in benefit-cost analysis?”

Climate change is also being used by some state officials as an excuse to raise taxes, taking advantage of, and essentially eliminating within their jurisdictions, the impact of the Trump tax cuts. 

The current Biden-John Kerry arguments are based on absolute falsehoods.

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Is the U.S. in the midst of a climate emergency? Not if you review the facts. Ellen Wald, an energy specialist writing in Forbes has reviewed the United Nations latest Emissions Gap Report. She notes that “for the United States, the real value in this report is as an advisory that it need not join the Paris Climate Accord. This report is evidence that, instead, the U.S. should just keep doing what it is doing to cut its own emissions. The U.S. is the most successful major country at mitigating its own pollution, and the U.N. shows this… over the last decade, the country’s GHG emissions have been in decline (0.4 per cent per year). Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the U.S. are dropping precipitously while those of China, India and Russia continue to rise…And the U.S. is making these improvements while it refuses to participate in the Paris Climate Accord. In 2017, the [Trump] White House said, that if it remained a part of that agreement, ‘compliance with the terms of the Paris Accord and the onerous energy restrictions it has placed on the United States could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025 according to the National Economic Research Associates.’ Instead, the U.S. continued decreasing its greenhouse gas emissions faster than any other major polluter, and it did so without the Paris agreement.”

One of Biden’s early targets has been the Keystone Pipeline, a particularly irrational move. Transporting oil using a pipeline is clearly safer and more environmentally friendly than any other method. The statistics prove this beyond a doubt. But opposing Keystone is actually a cover for the real objective: eliminating the use of oil altogether.

The Report concludes tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

The Annual Threat Assessment from the office of the Director of National Intelligence was been released. We previously excerpted information regarding China and Russia.  Today, we review the analysis regarding Iran. 

Some of the material presented in the report, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government believes, is based more on wishful thinking than actual facts, particularly the comment that Iran is not seeking a “nuclear breakout.”

Iran will present a continuing threat to US and allied interests in the region as it tries to erode US influence and  support Shia populations abroad, entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states, deflect  international pressure, and minimize threats to regime stability. Although Iran’s deteriorating economy and  poor regional reputation present obstacles to its goals, Tehran will try a range of tools—diplomacy,  expanding its nuclear program, military sales and acquisitions, and proxy and partner attacks—to advance  its goals. We expect that Iran will take risks that could escalate tensions and threaten US and allied interests  in the coming year. 

∙ Iran sees itself as locked in a struggle with the United States and its regional allies, whom they perceive  to be focused on curtailing Iran’s geopolitical influence and pursuing regime change. 

∙ Tehran’s actions will reflect its perceptions of US, Israeli, and Gulf state hostility; its ability to project  force through conventional arms and proxy forces; and its desire to extract diplomatic and economic  concessions from the international community. 

∙ With regards to US interests in particular, Iran’s willingness to conduct attacks probably will hinge on  its perception of the United States’ willingness to respond, its ability to conduct attacks without  triggering direct conflict, and the prospect of jeopardizing potential US sanctions relief. 

∙ Regime leaders probably will be reluctant to engage diplomatically in talks with the United States in the  near term without sanctions or humanitarian relief or the United States rejoining the Joint  Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran remains committed to countering US pressure,  although Tehran is also wary of becoming involved in a full-blown conflict. 

Regional Involvement and Destabilizing Activities 

Iran will remain a problematic actor in Iraq, which will be the key battleground for Iran’s influence this year and during the next several years, and Iranian-supported Iraqi Shia militias will continue to pose the  primary threat to US personnel in Iraq. 

∙ The rise in indirect-fire and other attacks against US installations or US-associated convoys in Iraq in  2020 is largely attributed to Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias. 

∙ Iran will rely on its Shia militia allies and their associated political parties to work toward Iran’s goals  of challenging the US presence and maintaining influence in Iraqi political and security issues. Tehran  continues to leverage ties to Iraqi Shia groups and leaders to circumvent US sanctions and try to force  the United States to withdraw through political pressure and kinetic strikes. 

∙ Although Tehran remains an influential external actor in Iraq, Iraqi politicians, such as Prime Minister  Mustafa al-Kadhimi, will attempt to balance Baghdad’s relations with Iran and the United States in an  effort to avoid Iraq becoming an arena for conflict between the two countries.

Iran is determined to maintain influence in Syria. 

∙ Iran is pursuing a permanent military presence and economic deals in Syria as the conflict winds down  there. Tehran almost certainly wants these things to build its regional influence, support Hizballah,  and threaten Israel. 

Iran will remain a destabilizing force in Yemen, as Tehran’s support to the Huthis—including supplying  ballistic and cruise missiles as well as unmanned systems—poses a threat to US partners and interests,  notably through strikes on Saudi Arabia. 

Tehran remains a threat to Israel, both directly through its missile forces and indirectly through its support of  Hizballah and other terrorist groups. 

Iran will hedge its bets in Afghanistan, and its actions may threaten instability. Iran publicly backs Afghan  peace talks, but it is worried about a long-term US presence in Afghanistan. As a result, Iran is building ties  with both the government in Kabul and the Taliban so it can take advantage of any political outcome. 

Military Capabilities 

Iran’s diverse military capabilities and its hybrid approach to warfare—using both conventional and  unconventional capabilities—will continue to pose a threat to US and allied interests in the region for the  foreseeable future. 

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∙ Iran demonstrated its conventional military strategy, which is primarily based on deterrence and the  ability to retaliate against an attacker, with its launch of multiple ballistic missiles against a base  housing US forces in Iraq in response to the January 2020 killing of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary  Guard Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran has the largest ballistic  missile force in the region, and despite Iran’s economic challenges, Tehran will seek to improve and  acquire new conventional weaponry. 

∙ Iran’s unconventional warfare operations and network of militant partners and proxies enable Tehran  to advance its interests in the region, maintain strategic depth, and provide asymmetric retaliatory  options. 

∙ The IRGC-QF and its proxies will remain central to Iran’s military power. 

Attacks on US Interests and the Homeland 

We assess that Iran remains interested in developing networks inside the United States—an objective it has pursued  for more than a decade—but the greatest risk to US persons exists outside the Homeland, particularly in the Middle  East and South Asia. 

∙ Iran has threatened to retaliate against US officials for the Soleimani killing in January 2020 and  attempted to conduct lethal operations in the United States previously. 

∙ During the past several years, US law enforcement has arrested numerous individuals with connections  to Iran as agents of influence or for collecting information on Iranian dissidents in the United States, 

and Iran’s security forces have been linked to attempted assassination and kidnapping plots in Europe,  the Middle East, and South Asia. 

∙ Iran probably can most readily target US interests in the Middle East and South Asia because it has  assets and proxies in the region with access to weapons and explosives. 

Nuclear Breakout 

We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we  judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. However, following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA  agreement in May 2018, Iranian officials have abandoned some of Iran’s commitments and resumed some nuclear  activities that exceed the JCPOA limits. If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably  will consider options ranging from further enriching uranium up to 60 percent to designing and building a  new 40 Megawatt Heavy Water reactor. 

∙ Iran has consistently cast its resumption of nuclear activities as a reversible response to the US  withdrawal from the JCPOA and messaged that it would return to full compliance if the United States  also fulfilled its JCPOA commitments. 

Since June 2019, Iran has increased the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA  limits. Since September 2019, Iran has ignored restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and  development and restarted uranium enrichment operations at the deeply buried Fordow facility. In January,  Iran began to enrich uranium up to 20 percent and started R&D with the stated intent to produce uranium  metal for research reactor fuel, and in February, it produced a gram quantities of natural uranium metal in a  laboratory experiment. 

Cyber, Intelligence, Influence, and Election Interference 

Iran’s expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a significant threat to the security of  US and allied networks and data. Iran has the ability to conduct attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as to  conduct influence and espionage activities. 

∙ Iran was responsible for multiple cyber attacks between April and July 2020 against Israeli water  facilities that caused unspecified short-term effects, according to press reporting. 

Iran is increasingly active in using cyberspace to enable influence operations—including aggressive influence  operations targeting the US 2020 presidential election—and we expect Tehran to focus on online covert  influence, such as spreading disinformation about fake threats or compromised election infrastructure and  recirculating anti-US content. 

∙ Iran attempted to influence dynamics around the 2020 US presidential election by sending threatening  messages to US voters, and Iranian cyber actors in December 2020 disseminated information about US  election officials to try to undermine confidence in the US election.

Although over a quarter of a year into the Biden Administration has passed, the White House appears confused about whom it works for.

The correct answer should be, of course, the American people. But the nation’s citizenry appears to be little more than an afterthought. The Biden White House has assisted global interests, at the expense of Americans.

Russia’s energy-dependent economy is helped by limiting U.S. energy production. Europeans, particularly Germans, are glad that the Trump-era demands to pay a fair share of their own defense is off.  China is heavily relieved that the prior administration’s economic pressure on it to deal fairly has been pushed aside. Latin American nations are grateful that tough border policies have been abolished, and drug cartels are thrilled at the increase in their nefarious business. Iran is gleeful that an opening has been made to reduce or eliminate sanctions.

How have these policies affected the constituency that the current president was elected to represent?

Almost immediately, American workers lost well-paying jobs due to the shutdown of the Keystone Pipeline and the limitation on fracking. Every U.S. consumer, especially drivers, have, as a result, seen their energy costs skyrocket. American energy independence, an extraordinary accomplishment of the Trump Administration, is being reversed. The problem results in both soaring prices for Americans, and greater reliance on Russia for fuel by our European allies.

Unemployment and increased costs, both at the marketplace and in taxes, for Americans is obviously not a concern for the Biden White House, which has prioritized helping non-Americans.

A Pew study released in March noted that “The Biden administration is expected to review policies that led to increased denial rates of H-1B visa applications under the Trump administration. In addition, Biden has delayed implementing a rule put in place by Trump that sought to prioritize the H-1B visa selection process based on wages, which would have raised the wages of H-1B recipients overall. Biden also proposed legislation to provide permanent work permits to spouses of H-1B visa holders. By contrast, the Trump administration had sought to restrict these permits.”

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The Biden Administration is obviously seeking to increase immigration levels, legal and illegal, to the United States. That may be beneficial to those abroad seeking a better life, but the impact on Americans is costly.

In February, President Biden announced that he was issuing an executive order to expand the number of refugees allowed to enter the U.S., essentially quadrupling the number allowed under his predecessor. Some of that is due to Biden’s redefining what a “refugee” actually is.

Biden’s border policies have encouraged a significant surge in illegal immigration, ignoring both the cost to U.S. taxpayers and the increased threat from contagious diseases.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform  estimates that “…the annual costs of illegal immigration at the federal, state and local level to be about $113 billion; nearly $29 billion at the federal level and $84 billion at the state and local level…. tax collections from illegal alien workers, both those in the above-ground economy and those in the underground economy… do not come close to the level of expenditures and, in any case, are misleading as an offset because over time unemployed and underemployed U.S. workers would replace illegal alien workers.”

Writing in The Hill Kristan Tate noted that “…there is a significant tax burden imposed on citizens and legal immigrants tied to a leaky border…noncitizen families in the United States are twice as likely to receive welfare payments than native born families. A full half of noncitizens receive Medicaid, compared to 23 percent of native born citizens, while almost half of noncitizens are on food stamps. Of particular concern is that noncitizens who stay in the long term are more likely to use these programs than those who just arrived. Half of new noncitizens receive welfare, but the figure jumps to a stunning 70 percent among those who have been in the United States for more than 10 years.”

Illustration: Pixabay

IRAN

Iranian war ships this week moved out into the Atlantic Ocean. While unconfirmed, they appear heading toward the US. The State Department spokesman, Ned Price, says Washington supports their freedom of navigation, but it is watching if they seek to effect the transfer of weapons or other illicit materials. His added that the US is “prepared to leverage our applicable authorities, including sanctions, against any actor that enable’s Iran’s ongoing provision of weapons to violent partners and to proxies. This is a concern that we’ve talked about broadly in the context of Iran, even as we work with our allies and partners in the P5+1 context, to attempt to put Iran’s nuclear program back in a box.” 

Price stated the US is prepared to hold Iran accountable and that “…before that were to take place, we are prepared to do what we can do attempt to eliminate such activity.” Price chose to use the word “attempt” to describe the US response. Also on Thursday, the Treasury Department simultaneously removed the names of the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Corporation and managing director of one of its subsidiaries from the Iranian sanctions list. During a press briefing on Thursday, Price was combative with reporters trying to find out why the US is lifting sanctions on individuals involved in the Iranian energy sector. In responding to media inquiries Price defended the Administration’s position stating that “…there is no linkage, there is no connection to the delistings that we announced today to the JCPOA or to negotiations that are ongoing in Vienna.”  Price pointed out that it was the Secretary of State who released a statement saying that we’re “lifting sanctions on three former Government of Iran officials and two companies previously involved in the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of Iranian petrochemical products….” Referring to the US working with other countries to contain Iran, Price said “That’s why we’ve been working in lockstep with our European allies and other partners in the context of the P5+1 – Russia and China….” It appears Washington now views Russia and China as partners in this challenge – in “lockstep.”

RUSSIA

A few days ago the United States issued a waiver not to sanction the Nord Stream company and its CEO Matthias Warnig. It appears the German Government sees this as a sign that Washington has accepted that the Russian pipeline can be finished and that its construction will not incur further sanction. Price told reporters the US position has not changed despite the issuance of a waiver. He noted that the Biden Administration is “…opposed to the pipeline, that we view it as a Russian geopolitical project, a project that threatens European energy security, and in fact, that undermines the security of some of our close partners, including Ukraine and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank.” Price could not explain why the waiver was not sending a signal to Moscow to proceed. He suggested the US instead will rely on diplomacy to make sure Russia behaves well in its use.

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Senior Advisor to the President on Migration Amy Pope announced more than $57 million in new humanitarian assistance at the June 10 Solidarity Event for Forcibly Displaced Persons and Host Communities in Central America and Mexico, according to the State Department. Questions have arisen in recent days over how to ensure these funds reach their intended recipients and don’t end up in the pockets of corrupt government officials. The State Department has not commented on how the program can be secured. Recently, Vice President Harris was in Central America holding discussions about the illegal migration issue confronting the US. In a public statement, while traveling, she told people not to come to the US. She has received heavy criticism from both Republicans and Democrats for her statements in a trip that has been labeled as a “failure,” even by some inside the Biden White House.

NICARAGUA

At a Tuesday media briefing, State Department Spokesman New Price said the United States is calling on “President Daniel Ortega and the Nicaraguan government to immediately release presidential candidates Cristiana Chamorro, Arturo Cruz, Felix Maradiaga, and Juan Sebastian Chamorro, as well as other civil society and opposition leaders who have been arrested over the past week in an increasing wave of repression.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

More than three thousand years ago, around the time horses were domesticated, men from the upper classes started wearing pants in China. It was a sign of prestige. The elite typically owned the horses during this period and wearing pants made riding easier for them. By 1205 AD these “big boy pants” became known as britches. Today, China’s ambitious President Xi Jinping has outgrown his modern-day britches. His grandiose desire to remake the world in China’s image is an outsized and extremely dangerous dream. The threat is one the world has only recently accepted as real and imminent.

RAND Corporation released a major 252-page report this week examining the international and defense dimensions of the US-China relationship from Beijing’s perspective to aid western leaders in developing a strategy to deal with the rising communist giant. Using primary source documents, it confirms that the communist giant’s immediate goal is to establish its primacy in the Asia-Pacific region and assume leadership of the international order. It reveals that China has not ruled out military force to achieve its objectives, although it currently is relying heavily on its economic expertise and diplomatic wolf warriors. According to the report, China may choose to conduct a proxy war with the US in the next decade or so or engage in a direct limited conflict to attain it goals. Most significantly, it says that China’s strategy “will not allow” the United States to get in its way or to dislodge China from its future position of advantage over the West.

The authors of the report, Timothy Heath, Derek Grossman, and Asha Clark conclude that Chinese military strategy calls for building a superior force to make the cost of war too great for any nation, including the US, to oppose China’s plans. Part of that strategy includes shaping the international environment so that security ties with client states favor Beijing and not Washington. The analysts point out that China already acknowledges there will be intense competition but has yet to overtly admit to the inevitability of a future armed conflict. Unlike earlier hegemons, China primarily is centered on dominating Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa. “Chinese international leadership would be characterized by a reliance on finance, diplomatic engagement, and security assistance to exercise influence while maintaining a modest overseas military presence,” they said.

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Marginalization of the United States and its Western allies would have dire economic consequences for the whole world. The RAND report has implications that should wake up the Biden Administration and West European leaders. By 2050 it says China expects successful competition with the United States may include “militarized crises or conflicts of a limited scope.” China expects the US to be forced into recognizing its authority as the global leader. President Xi plans to contain the US in the Americas. Worse still is China’s goal to alter the international rules-based order, a system which has proved stable, in favor of the norms upheld by China when managing conflicts of an economic or military nature. According to the report, Beijing expects to dictate the terms under which the US and the communist giant cooperate. 

Chinese overseas aggression has intensified since President Xi assumed power. The country has embarked on a mission to secure the South China Sea, absorb Hong Kong under Chinese law, internationally isolate and then take Taiwan back, militarize and control space, and ensure the US and Europe remain at odds in their approach toward China, among other areas. The authors summarize five major objectives derived from Chinese primary sources. First, Beijing intends to force the US to modify its policies to accommodate China’s demands regarding its core interests. Next, China intends to foment divisions inside the US regarding opinions on the threat posed by China. This involves the US media, academia, and cultural elites. Third, it intends to force the US government to cooperate on shared concerns on equal terms per the “new type great power” framework. China also expects the US to facilitate it technological development and it plans to ensure Washington is ineffective in restraining Chinese “extraction” of the needed technology. Finally, China intends to make US attempts to constrain Beijing ineffective. To do so Beijing intends to make its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) the compelling choice above US geoeconomic initiatives. 

China has gotten too big for its britches. US diplomatic efforts going forward need to shore up American alliances and partnerships to restrain China. Anything else dooms the free world to a Chinese style gulag archipelago by 2050. 

This article was written by the distinguished jurist, Judge John Wilson (ret.)

As one of the female athlete plaintiffs stated when describing her reasons for bringing a lawsuit, “We all know the outcome of the race before it even starts; it’s demoralizing…I fully support and am happy for these athletes for being true to themselves. They should have the right to express themselves in school, but athletics have always had extra rules to keep the competition fair.” 

Ignoring these “”anecdotal” stories of women who have been harmed by the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports, Grossman and Rathod continue to misstate the facts;  “Moreover,” they write, “there is simply no evidence that trans girls would displace cis girls to a substantial extent if allowed to compete on girls’ sports teams…(i)n March, Associated Press journalists contacted the sponsors of the 20-plus anti-trans sports bills introduced this year. In almost every case, the lawmakers could not cite a single instance in their own state or region where the participation of trans athletes caused any problems whatsoever.”  

These two statements are diametrically opposed, one to the other.  While it is true that the state legislatures which have voted for transgender bans from female sports (which include Florida, Ohio and Alabama) could not cite to any “problems” with trans athletes (leaving wide open the definition of the word “problem” in this context), other states (such as Connecticut, discussed above), have produced evidence of trans athletes who have displaced women.  According to Wired, “(t)ransgender athletes are having a moment. At all levels of sport, they’re stepping onto the podium and into the headlines. New Zealand weightlifter Laurel Hubbard won two gold medals at the Pacific Games, and college senior CeCe Telfer became the NCAA Division II national champion in the 400-meter run. Another senior, June Eastwood, has been instrumental to her cross-country team’s success.”

In fact, the aforementioned CeCe Telfer competed on behalf of Franklin Pierce University of New Hampshire, where a bill to ban transgender athletes from women’s sports is being held up in committee until next year’s legislative session.    But where did CeCe win the 400-meter run?  “(T)he outdoor track at Javelina Stadium on the campus of Texas A&M University in Kingsville, Tex(as)…on Saturday, May 25, 2019.”   

Does Texas have a “problem” with transgender athletes?  “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has said he will sign a bill to prevent transgender youth from competing on teams that align with their gender identity… (t)he bill, sponsored by Sen. Charles Perry (R-Lubbock), passed the Senate on a party-line vote last month. Under the bill, athletes would be required to compete on sports teams matching the sex listed on their original birth certificates… it was that same…rule referenced by Perry that created controversy a few years ago when transgender student Mack Beggs was forced to compete in girls’ wrestling despite having started his transition, because the original sex listed on his birth certificate was ‘female.’” 

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In the final analysis, Grossman and Rathod present their arguments from a particular perspective; “Trans girls are girls” they write.  “Protecting the athletic opportunities for girls means protecting opportunities for trans girls too. There is increasing consensus among legal practitioners that gender identity—rather than anatomy or sex-assigned-at-birth—is the primary determinant of sex.”  

But legal practioners are not doctors, nor are they female athletes unable to compete with the bigger, stronger, trans athletes.  And what is the medical view?  “A new study suggests transgender women maintain an athletic advantage over their cisgender peers even after a year on hormone therapy… said the study’s lead author, Dr. Timothy Roberts, a pediatrician and the director of the adolescent medicine training program at Children’s Mercy Hospital in Kansas City, Missouri. ‘At one year, the trans women on average still have an advantage over the cis women…'” 

Various leaders in women’s sports are finally coming forward to address this issue.  According to the Washington Post, “Donna de Varona, the Olympic swimmer who lobbied for Title IX’s passage in 1972; Donna Lopiano, the former chief executive of the Women’s Sports Foundation; and Nancy Hogshead-Makar, Olympic swimmer and law professor who wrote a book on Title IX…. planned to lobby for federal legislation requiring transgender girls and women, in high school sports and above, to suppress testosterone for at least one year before competing against other girls and women, making universal a policy already in place in some states and some higher levels of sports. For transgender girls in high school who do not suppress testosterone, they suggested ‘accommodations,’ such as separate races, podiums or teams… ‘To give girls and women an equal opportunity to participate in sports, they need their own team. Why? Because of the biological differences between males and females,’ said Hogshead-Makar, CEO of Champion Women, a women’s sports advocacy organization. 

Rather than follow the ideological position of Grossman and Rathod, de Varona, Lopiano and Hogshead-Makar are looking for a reasonable, practical way to address the obvious truth underlying this entire issue – the existence of physical differences between men and women.  If they are successful, and more states continue their efforts to protect women’s sports, than no other woman will lose out on a college scholarship, or need to have her skull broken in a sporting competition.

Illustration: Pixabay

This article was written by the distinguished jurist, Judge John Wilson (ret.)

“I’ve fought a lot of women and have never felt the strength that I felt in a fight as I did that night. I can’t answer whether it’s because she was born a man or not because I’m not a doctor. I can only say, I’ve never felt so overpowered ever in my life…”                             Tamikka Brents, commenting on her fight with transgender MMA fighter Fallon Fox

In 2014, Fallon Fox, a male Mixed Martial Arts fighter who had surgically transitioned to a woman, fought Tamikka Brents, a female.  “Everything happened in the first round within the first two and a half minutes. It was a messy, bloody fight and not easy for everyone to watch. During the fight Tamikka suffered a concussion and fractured her orbital bone in her skull and Fallon Fox didn’t stop until Tamikka Brents was finally TKO’d. After the fight she received several staples in her head and skull.” 

Brents recovered from her injuries; Fallon has never fought again.  But though Fallon’s career as a fighter is over, the controversy over the Fallon Brents fight remains.  

Shortly afterwards, UFC fighter Paul Costa made this statement: “He was born a man, and he is a man, even though he calls himself a transsexual…It’s absurd cowardice, not only by him but also by the promoters of any event that has accepted this kind of absurdity. He has simply annihilated the girls who have fought against him…I don’t want to get into [the personal aspect] of his choice, to be transsexual or not, homosexual or not. What happens here is that a man is fighting against girls, against women, as if he were one. This is absurd, and it can’t be accepted.”  However, Fox found support from a medical professional. “Dr Eric Vilain, director of the Institute for Society and Genetics at UCLA, examined Fox’s medical records, told Time Magazine that ‘a male to female transsexual athlete has significantly less muscle strength and bone density, and higher fat mass, than males.’  Indeed, the transition could mean a hormonal disadvantage for Fox because of her low testosterone levels.”   

Nevertheless, the fact remains that a biological male fighter broke the skull of a biological female fighter within two and one half minutes of the first round, regardless of each fighter’s respective testosterone levels.

Why is this significant?  Why would this one incident from 2014 still resonate almost seven years later?

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Because in that time, the lesson of the Fallon Brents fight has not been learned.  Instead, the truth has been actively denied.  And what is that truth?  That there is a biological difference between men and women.

Recently, in Verdict, Joanna L. Grossman (the Ellen K. Solender Endowed Chair in Women and Law at SMU Dedman School of Law) and Saraswati Rathod (a 1L student at Stanford Law School) published an article which denies this truth, and attacks the efforts being made by various states to protect women’s sports from dominance by transgender athletes.  “Like the bathroom bills,” they write, “the transgender athlete bans are a reaction to an imagined problem that is not supported by either anecdotal or empirical evidence. And like the bathroom bills, the transgender athlete bans are certain to harm already-marginalized individuals—all in the name of ginning up support of the GOP’s deep-red base.”   

This statement appears at the very beginning of the article, and is demonstrably untrue.  The example of the Fallon Brents fight is “anecdotal” evidence for the harm caused by transgender athletes.  For further evidence of harm, consider the lawsuit brought by three female student runners in Connecticut.  According to the Washington Examiner, the three are suing Connecticut’s  “Interscholastic Athletic Conference for sex discrimination, arguing the inclusion of transgender women denied them nearly 100 opportunities to compete in various athletic competitions during their time in high school.” 

In particular, the female students cited the example of two transgender athletes who have won a plethora of running titles in recent years; “The participation in high school sports by transgender girls Terry Miller and Andraya Yearwood, both of whom are sprinters and were identified in the complaint, has sparked debate in Connecticut as they continue to compete and excel in state track events… Miller…holds the outdoor track and field State Open records in the 100- and 200-meter dashes and won two New England track titles in 2018…(d)uring the 2018-19 indoor track and field season, Miller won Class S, State Open and New England titles in the 55- and 300-meter dash.” 

Contrast this with Miller’s pre-transition athletic history:  “Running on the boys’ team as a ninth-grader in suburban Hartford, Terry Miller was an average track athlete, online records show, failing to qualify for any postseason events.” 

Judge Wilson’s (ret.) report concludes tomorrow

Photo: Pixabay

The Biden Administration has submitted its defense budget for the coming fiscal year. It provides a 1.6% increase. Since the current rate of inflation is 4.2%, it is, in real terms, a decrease of 2.6%.  It totals $715 billion out of a $6 trillion total spending.

Contrary to popular belief, the Pentagon actually accounts for only 15% of the federal budget. Many had expected funding for the military to rise by approximately 5%, due to the dramatic increase in China’s armed forces, and the aggressive acts they continue to engage in.  Many had assumed as well that Putin’s strengthened military, and his threats to Ukraine, as well as the nuclear trends in Iran and North Korea, would inspire a significant hike.

Under Biden’s proposed budget, 4,600 troops would be cut. Support for new aircraft would be cut to $52.4 billion, down from Trumps’ request last year of $56.9 billion. Some aircraft in the U.S. arsenal are so old that the grandfathers of current pilots flew them seventy years ago.

Less money was also requested for ground weapons—$12.3 billion compared to $13 billion last year. There’s also a drop in the missile defense spending request, which comes in at $10.9 billion, down from $11.6 billion, and missiles and bombs, which drop to $20.3 billion, down from $21.3 billion.

Some defense experts prioritized spending on increasing the navy as a key need, but the Biden budget cuts sharply there, as well.  Rear Admiral John Gumbleton, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for budget, noted “We recognize that China and Russia posture themselves to project military power in the maritime domain. Both desire to change the world stage, bent to their interests rather than the rules-based order that has served the U.S. and world economies since the end of World War II.”

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However, the White House budget cuts the Navy’s ability to buy new ships and aircraft. Beijing has the largest navy in the world, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants. In comparison, the U.S. Navy’s battle force is approximately 293. Under current fiscal trends the PRC will increase their already significant numerical advantage at sea.

Portions of the Defense budget have raised considerably questions about whether the White House has politicized the military, by including spending on issues such as climate change and a variety of “woke” programs. One strange budget line would provide dollars to monitor the on-line correspondence of servicemembers.

In response to reports of political bias within the Department of Defense, U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), the Ranking Member of the House Armed Services stated “I am greatly concerned by numerous press reports of conservative voices being silenced in the Department of Defense while Departmental leadership defends and protects left-leaning voices. The United States Armed Forces should be focused on preparing to face and win any battles against the threats posed by China and other foreign adversaries and not imposing political beliefs on those who chose to serve in uniform.”

Overall, Biden’s proposal greatly disappointed Republicans. In a statement, leading GOP Senators noted: “President Biden’s budget proposal cuts defense spending, sending a terrible signal not only to our adversaries in Beijing and Moscow, but also to our allies and partners. …President Biden’s own Pentagon leadership team acknowledges that the defense strategy they inherited is largely on the right track, and that resourcing the strategy requires significant real growth in the defense budget. Anything less than real growth will force the Department to choose between taking care of service members and ensuring they have the tools and training to meet new and growing threats…”

Photo: China’s supply ship Gaoyouhu conducts alongside replenishment-at-sea with the guided-missile frigate (China Defence Ministry)