Month: June 2021

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents the full text of the Director for National Intelligence Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, popularly known as UFOs. We begin the report with the official press release, followed by the full text.

Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment:

[T]the Director of National Intelligence [has]delivered to Congress a preliminary assessment on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress that the Intelligence Community and the Department of Defense UAP Task Force has made in understanding this threat.

Analyzing UAP is a collaborative effort involving many departments and agencies, and the Department thanks the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for leading a collaborative effort to produce this assessment, as well as the other contributing departments and agencies.

Incursions into our training ranges and designated airspace pose safety of flight and operations security concerns, and may pose national security challenges.  DOD takes reports of incursions – by any aerial object, identified or unidentified – very seriously, and investigates each one.

The report submitted today highlights the challenges associated with assessing UAP occurring on or near DOD training ranges and installations.  The report also identified the need to make improvements in processes, policies, technologies, and training to improve our ability to understand UAP.

To that end, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks today directed the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security to develop a plan to formalize the mission currently performed by the UAPTF. 

This plan will be developed in coordination with various DOD components, including the military departments and the combatant commands, and with ODNI and other interagency partners.  The plan will establish procedures for synchronizing collection, reporting and analysis of UAP; provide recommendations for securing military test and training ranges; and identify requirements for the establishment and operation of a new follow-on DOD activity to lead the effort, including its alignment, resources, staffing, authorities, and a timeline for implementation. 

FULL TEXT OF THE REPORT

SCOPE AND ASSUMPTIONS 

Scope 

This preliminary report is provided by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)  in response to the provision in Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence  Authorization Act (IAA) for Fiscal Year 2021, that the DNI, in consultation with the Secretary of  Defense (SECDEF), is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by unidentified  aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress the Department of Defense Unidentified Aerial  Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) has made in understanding this threat. 

This report provides an overview for policymakers of the challenges associated with  characterizing the potential threat posed by UAP while also providing a means to develop  relevant processes, policies, technologies, and training for the U.S. military and other U.S.  Government (USG) personnel if and when they encounter UAP, so as to enhance the Intelligence  Community’s (IC) ability to understand the threat. The Director, UAPTF, is the accountable  official for ensuring the timely collection and consolidation of data on UAP. The dataset described in this report is currently limited primarily to U.S. Government reporting of incidents  occurring from November 2004 to March 2021. Data continues to be collected and analyzed. 

ODNI prepared this report for the Congressional Intelligence and Armed Services Committees.  UAPTF and the ODNI National Intelligence Manager for Aviation drafted this report, with input  from USD(I&S), DIA, FBI, NRO, NGA, NSA, Air Force, Army, Navy, Navy/ONI, DARPA,  FAA, NOAA, NGA, ODNI/NIM-Emerging and Disruptive Technology, ODNI/National  Counterintelligence and Security Center, and ODNI/National Intelligence Council. 

Assumptions 

Various forms of sensors that register UAP generally operate correctly and capture enough real  data to allow initial assessments, but some UAP may be attributable to sensor anomalies. 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)  hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP. The  Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) considered a range of information on UAP described in U.S. military and IC (Intelligence Community) reporting, but because the reporting  lacked sufficient specificity, ultimately recognized that a unique, tailored reporting process was  required to provide sufficient data for analysis of UAP events. 

• As a result, the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between  2004 and 2021, the majority of which are a result of this new tailored process to  better capture UAP events through formalized reporting. 

• Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a  majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared,  electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation. 

In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or  observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.  

There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the  range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting. Our analysis of  the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will  fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric  phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a  catchall “other” bin. 

UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security.  Safety concerns primarily center on aviators contending with an increasingly cluttered air  domain. UAP would also represent a national security challenge if they are foreign adversary  collection platforms or provide evidence a potential adversary has developed either a  breakthrough or disruptive technology. 

Consistent consolidation of reports from across the federal government, standardized reporting, increased collection and analysis, and a streamlined process for screening all  such reports against a broad range of relevant USG data will allow for a more  sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding. Some of these  steps are resource-intensive and would require additional investment.

AVAILABLE REPORTING LARGELY INCONCLUSIVE Limited Data Leaves Most UAP Unexplained… 

Limited data and inconsistency in reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP. No  standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established one in March 2019. The  Air Force subsequently adopted that mechanism in November 2020, but it remains limited to  USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard anecdotally during its research about other  observations that occurred but which were never captured in formal or informal reporting by  those observers. 

After carefully considering this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and that were collected from systems we  considered to be reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021,  with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better  known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with  high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others  remain unexplained.  

• 144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors. 

o Most reports described UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned training or  other military activity.

UAP Collection Challenges  Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP.  Although some technical challenges—such as how to appropriately filter out radar clutter to  ensure safety of flight for military and civilian aircraft—are longstanding in the aviation  community, while others are unique to the UAP problem set.  • Narratives from aviators in the operational community and analysts from the military  and IC describe disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or  attempting to discuss it with colleagues. Although the effects of these stigmas have  lessened as senior members of the scientific, policy, military, and intelligence  communities engage on the topic seriously in public, reputational risk may keep  many observers silent, complicating scientific pursuit of the topic.  • The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically designed to fulfill  specific missions. As a result, those sensors are not generally suited for identifying  UAP.   • Sensor vantage points and the numbers of sensors concurrently observing an object  play substantial roles in distinguishing UAP from known objects and determining  whether a UAP demonstrates breakthrough aerospace capabilities. Optical sensors  have the benefit of providing some insight into relative size, shape, and structure.  Radiofrequency sensors provide more accurate velocity and range information.

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But Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge 

Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow  for detailed trend or pattern analysis, there was some clustering of UAP observations regarding  shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion. UAP sightings also tended to cluster around U.S.  training and testing grounds, but we assess that this may result from a collection bias as a result  of focused attention, greater numbers of latest-generation sensors operating in those areas, unit  expectations, and guidance to report anomalies.  

And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology 

In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or  flight characteristics.  

Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver  abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small  number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with  UAP sightings. 

The UAPTF holds a small amount of data that appear to show UAP demonstrating acceleration  or a degree of signature management. Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple  teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. We are  conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated. 

UAP PROBABLY LACK A SINGLE EXPLANATION 

The UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors,  reinforcing the possibility there are multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations. Our  analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved  they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural  atmospheric phenomena, USG or industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems,  and a catchall “other” bin. With the exception of the one instance where we determined with  high confidence that the reported UAP was airborne clutter, specifically a deflating balloon, we  currently lack sufficient information in our dataset to attribute incidents to specific explanations. 

Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, recreational unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or airborne debris like plastic bags that muddle a scene and affect an operator’s ability to  identify true targets, such as enemy aircraft.  

Natural Atmospheric Phenomena: Natural atmospheric phenomena includes ice crystals,  moisture, and thermal fluctuations that may register on some infrared and radar systems.  

USG or Industry Developmental Programs: Some UAP observations could be attributable to  developments and classified programs by U.S. entities. We were unable to confirm, however,  that these systems accounted for any of the UAP reports we collected. 

Foreign Adversary Systems: Some UAP may be technologies deployed by China, Russia,  another nation, or a non-governmental entity.

Other: Although most of the UAP described in our dataset probably remain unidentified due to  limited data or challenges to collection processing or analysis, we may require additional  scientific knowledge to successfully collect on, analyze and characterize some of them. We  would group such objects in this category pending scientific advances that allowed us to better  understand them. The UAPTF intends to focus additional analysis on the small number of cases  where a UAP appeared to display unusual flight characteristics or signature management.  

UAP THREATEN FLIGHT SAFETY AND, POSSIBLY, NATIONAL  SECURITY  

UAP pose a hazard to safety of flight and could pose a broader danger if some instances  represent sophisticated collection against U.S. military activities by a foreign government or  demonstrate a breakthrough aerospace technology by a potential adversary.  

Ongoing Airspace Concerns 

When aviators encounter safety hazards, they are required to report these concerns. Depending  on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease  their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting.  

• The UAPTF has 11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near  misses with a UAP. 

Potential National Security Challenges 

We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative  of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for  evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly  as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most  advanced sensor systems.  

EXPLAINING UAP WILL REQUIRE ANALYTIC, COLLECTION AND  RESOURCE INVESTMENT 

Standardize the Reporting, Consolidate the Data, and Deepen the Analysis 

In line with the provisions of Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the IAA for FY 2021, the  UAPTF’s long-term goal is to widen the scope of its work to include additional UAP events  documented by a broader swath of USG personnel and technical systems in its analysis. As the  dataset increases, the UAPTF’s ability to employ data analytics to detect trends will also  improve. The initial focus will be to employ artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms  to cluster and recognize similarities and patterns in features of the data points. As the database  accumulates information from known aerial objects such as weather balloons, high-altitude or  super-pressure balloons, and wildlife, machine learning can add efficiency by pre-assessing UAP  reports to see if those records match similar events already in the database.  

• The UAPTF has begun to develop interagency analytical and processing workflows  to ensure both collection and analysis will be well informed and coordinated.

The majority of UAP data is from U.S. Navy reporting, but efforts are underway to standardize  incident reporting across U.S. military services and other government agencies to ensure all  relevant data is captured with respect to particular incidents and any U.S. activities that might be  relevant. The UAPTF is currently working to acquire additional reporting, including from the  U.S. Air Force (USAF), and has begun receiving data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). 

• Although USAF data collection has been limited historically the USAF began a six month pilot program in November 2020 to collect in the most likely areas to  encounter UAP and is evaluating how to normalize future collection, reporting, and  analysis across the entire Air Force. 

• The FAA captures data related to UAP during the normal course of managing air  traffic operations. The FAA generally ingests this data when pilots and other airspace  users report unusual or unexpected events to the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization.  

• In addition, the FAA continuously monitors its systems for anomalies, generating  additional information that may be of use to the UAPTF. The FAA is able to isolate  data of interest to the UAPTF and make it available. The FAA has a robust and  effective outreach program that can help the UAPTF reach members of the aviation  community to highlight the importance of reporting UAP.  

Expand Collection 

The UAPTF is looking for novel ways to increase collection of UAP cluster areas when U.S. forces are not present as a way to baseline “standard” UAP activity and mitigate the collection  bias in the dataset. One proposal is to use advanced algorithms to search historical data captured  and stored by radars. The UAPTF also plans to update its current interagency UAP collection  strategy in order bring to bear relevant collection platforms and methods from the DoD and the  IC. 

Increase Investment in Research and Development 

The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research and development could further the  future study of the topics laid out in this report. Such investments should be guided by a UAP  Collection Strategy, UAP R&D Technical Roadmap, and a UAP Program Plan. 

APPENDIX A – Definition of Key Terms 

This report and UAPTF databases use the following defining terms: 

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): Airborne objects not immediately identifiable. The  acronym UAP represents the broadest category of airborne objects reviewed for analysis. 

UAP Event: A holistic description of an occurrence during which a pilot or aircrew witnessed  (or detected) a UAP. 

UAP Incident: A specific part of the event. 

UAP Report: Documentation of a UAP event, to include verified chains of custody and basic  information such as the time, date, location, and description of the UAP. UAP reports include  Range Fouler¹ reports and other reporting. 

¹ U.S. Navy aviators define a “range fouler” as an activity or object that interrupts pre-planned training or other  military activity in a military operating area or restricted airspace.

APPENDIX B – Senate Report Accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act  for Fiscal Year 2021 

Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021,  provides that the DNI, in consultation with the SECDEF and other relevant heads of USG  Agencies, is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by UAP and the progress  the UAPTF has made to understand this threat. 

The Senate Report specifically requested that the report include: 

1. A detailed analysis of UAP data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the  Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the  UAPTF; 

2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by: 

a. Geospatial Intelligence; 

b. Signals Intelligence; 

c. Human Intelligence; and 

d. Measurement and Signatures Intelligence 

3. A detailed analysis of data of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which was derived  from investigations of intrusions of UAP data over restricted U.S. airspace; 

4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection  and centralized analysis of all UAP reporting for the Federal Government, regardless  of which service or agency acquired the information; 

5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4; 

6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the UAP to national  security, and an assessment of whether this UAP activity may be attributed to one or  more foreign adversaries; 

7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary, have  achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put U.S. strategic or  conventional forces at risk; and 

8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and  development, additional funding, and other resources.

By any measure, the Biden Administration is in deep trouble.

Since taking office, The U.S. Southern Border has devolved into chaos. The Chinese and Russians are returning to aggressive acts that had not been seen since the Obama-Biden White House days. Race Relations continue to deteriorate. Inflation has made a comeback. Riots, once thought to be a reaction to Trump, continue unabated. The Middle East, which had been improving under the prior president, has taken a severe turn for the worse. Violent crime is growing by the day. The nation has been repeatedly cyber-attacked. China’s bioterror assault on the planet, performed maliciously or negligently, remains unpunished.

The Trump Administration had extraordinary success in the Middle East, which the media for the most part sharply underreported. Biden reversed the former President’s get-tough policy on Iran, and the results have been devastating, as Tehran funnels cash and advanced weaponry to Hamas and others.

Inflation, long tamed, has made a dramatic comeback under Biden, threatening to bring back the “stagnation” era that characterized the Jimmy Carter Administration. The U.S. economy, which should have rebounded sharply as COVID wound down, remains relatively sedate.

Listening to the mainstream media and the speeches by Progressive elected officials, however, is similar to a trip to a parallel universe. Rather than the real-world crises listed above, a panoply of issues more appropriate to a faculty lounge at a leftist university (which constitutes most of higher education) than to the overwhelming majority of Americans takes center stage. 

Those topics are frequently lacking in data to support the notion that they do, in fact, constitute vital national challenges.

The current vogue distraction issue is “white supremacy.” An intensive search for actual statistics backing up charges that white supremacists constitute a threat doesn’t turn up very much. The Lawfare organization notes: “…attempt to figure out the amount of violent crime committed by white supremacists, internationally or domestically, and you’ll find yourself sorting through various government documents that are incomplete in a number of ways, covering only a small set of offenses or failing to label the offender’s ideology with specificity.”

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What about the “systemic racism” dilemma? the claim of systemic racism is wholly false. There are no laws, regulations or procedures that allow racism. Heather MacDonald, writing for the Manhattan Institute, reports: “This charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today…A solid body of evidence finds no structural bias in the criminal-justice system with regard to arrests, prosecution or sentencing. Crime and suspect behavior, not race, determine most police actions.”

There is also much concentration, particularly in “blue” states, on keeping America locked down in response to COVID. Again, the facts don’t seem to matter. Jurisdictions that loosened restrictions are doing as well or even better than those with stiff rules.

Next on the list is man-made climate change. During the year of COVID, polluting activities were brought to an extensive slow down. The result? According to the NOAA, “Atmospheric carbon dioxide peaked for 2021 in May at a monthly average of 419 parts per million (ppm), the highest level since accurate measurements began 63 years ago.” If all the allegations of human impact were accurate, that level should have dropped precipitously.

These policy failures are an embarrassment to the national media, whether in print, on television, and especially the internet which did so much to get Biden elected.

Rather than candidly report on these dramatic policy missteps, biased journalists distract with inflammatory issues that lack substance. Next up, UFOs. For several weeks, many news outlets have teased stories about the impending release of Pentagon and other data about aerial phenomenon. Don’t expect much hard-core information, let alone an interview with E.T. 

But it will allow the media to, once again, take your attention away from Bidens’ failures.

Illustration: Pixabay

Biden’s recent address on crime again portrayed a leader who appeared exhausted and somewhat disoriented. These ongoing incidents of the President appearing less than fully competent has led a number of worried Congressional Representatives to request that he take a cognitive exam.

The following is the text of their letter, sent to the President on June 17:

Dear President Biden, 

We write to you today to express concern with your current cognitive state. We believe that, regardless of gender, age, or political party, all Presidents should follow the precedent set by former President Trump to document and demonstrate sound mental abilities. 

The American people should have absolute confidence in their President. They deserve to know that he or she can perform the duties of Head of State and Commander in Chief. They deserve full transparency on the mental capabilities of their highest elected leader. To achieve this, we urge you to submit to a cognitive test immediately. We implore you to then publish the test results, so the American people know the full mental and intellectual health of their President, and to set an example for all Presidents to follow going forward. 

Previously, while on the campaign trail, you agreed to a similar assessment. At first, you “grew testy” and questioned “why the hell would I take a test,” according to an AP report. Later, you relented and said you were “very willing to let the American public judge my physical, mental – my physical, as well as my mental fitness and to, you know, to make a judgement about who I am.” 

As you may remember, starting in 2018, political opponents and members of the media clamored for then-President Trump to take a cognitive test. In response, the White House Physician conducted a Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA) for President Trump, at which he excelled. 

According to Dr. Ziad Nasreddine, the neurologist who created the test, MOCA is a simple screening tool to identify early signs of mental impairment.? Dr. Nasreddine said the test is best administered when a person or their loved ones “start noticing mental decline,” particularly forgetfulness on ordinary tasks. MOCA results allow a medical expert to identify “cognitive impairment that comes with diseases like Alzheimer’s, stroke, or multiple sclerosis.” This is pertinent since it was publicly documented during your candidacy that you had previously suffered from aneurysms associated with at least one hemorrhagic stroke. Certain behaviors that signal someone should take the exam include “patients repeating themselves, losing car keys frequently, forgetting recent events, and multiple instances of forgetting conversations.” Unfortunately, your forgetfulness and cognitive difficulties have been prominently on display over the past year. 

Unfortunately, your mental decline and forgetfulness have become more apparent over the past eighteen months. In March, you forgot the name of the Pentagon, the Department of Defense, and the Defense Secretary, though you had said “Secretary Austin” just a few moments prior. The official White House transcript reads, “And I want to thank Sec- — the former general — I keep calling him ‘General.’ My — the guy who runs that outfit over there.” 

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Additionally, at the end of February, you visited Houston to survey the winter storm damage, where you misidentified the time of day and Senator John Cornyn’s title, and you mispronounced Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee’s first name and Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher’s maiden name of Pannill. Then, apparently forgetting the purpose of your visit, you questioned, “what am I doing here?” The White House transcript from 4:30 CST reads “…it’s dinner time. Good afternoon — or almost. Actually, it’s evening. And I want to thank you, Governor and Mrs. Abbott, for your hospitality and your friendship. And Representative — Senator Cornyn, I think he had to go back; I think he’s getting on a plane. He told me last — he came in to see me last event. And Representatives Sheila Jackson Lee, Al Green, Sylvia Garcia, Lizzie Pannilli [sic] — excuse me, Pannill [Fletcher] — and — what am I doing here? I’m going to lose track here.” 

In May, you remembered an article from “my fourth or fifth year as vice president…” that said, “Biden travels 1,300,000 miles on Air Force One,” though, as you know, the Vice President actually travels aboard Air Force Two. You continued the story to explain that you took frequent trips home that year because your mom was sick, and to remember an Amtrak conductor named Angelo Negri who congratulated you on reaching 1,500,000 career miles on Amtrak. However, the timeline of that story does not match up. Your fourth year as vice president would have been 2013, Negri’s obituary states he retired from Amtrak in 1993, and your mother passed away in 2010. 

Finally, in March of 2020, you started to recite the oft-quoted first line of the Declaration of Independence, but you seemingly forgot the phrase. You stated, “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.”? Most school-age children could recite that famous and revered patriotic phrase by heart, but you could not. 

As Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin previously pointed out, with many politicians and the population at-large growing older, “it’s not hard to think that there will be future situations where the president’s physical and mental state may create issues for us.” At the time of this quote, Representative Raskin was introducing legislation to establish an independent commission that could examine a President’s fitness for office and determine “whether the President is mentally or physically unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office.” 

We agree with the statements put forth by Representative Raskin. As such, we encourage you to follow the example set by President Trump, by undergoing a cognitive test as soon as possible and immediately making the results available for the American people. 

CC: Kevin O’Connor, D.O., Physician to the President Anthony Fauci, M.D., Chief Medical Advisor to the President 

Thank you, 

(Letter signed by Representatives Ronnie Jackson, Bob Gibbs, Jeff Duncan, Andy Harris, Brian Babin, Jody Hice, Claudia Tenney, Kat Cammack, Jerry Carl, Pat Fallon, Diane Harshberger, Beth Van Duyne, W. Gregory Steube, Tom Tiffany)

AFGHANISTAN

At a Friday press conference in Paris, Secretary of State tony Blinken responded to a question about US involvement in Afghanistan by stating that he wanted “to reiterate an important point that sometimes gets lost, which is that even as we are withdrawing our forces from Afghanistan, we are not disengaging from Afghanistan; to the contrary. We’re working very hard to sustain a strong, diplomatic presence – not only our diplomatic presence, but with partners as well to sustain many of the programs that we’ve had in place to support Afghanistan economically: development assistance, humanitarian assistance, assistance to the Afghan security forces. He added that the US is also trying to make good on promises made to Afghan interpreters who worked for the US there and are now in danger of retribution.

IRAN

Iranian President-elect Raisi has been accused by numerous human rights groups of serious rights abuses dating back to the 1980s. When asked at a press conference this week if the US could, in all good consciousness, lift sanctions on Iran without a proper international probe into the allegations of human rights and other abuses, Secretary Blinken responded: “This is about pursuing our fundamental interests. And an Iran with a nuclear weapon or with a capacity to produce one on very short order is an Iran that is even more dangerous than it already is – an Iran can act with even greater impunity when it comes to supporting terrorism, destabilizing the region, engaging in proliferation. So we have a national interest in trying to put the nuclear problem back in the box that it was in under the JCPOA that unfortunately it is now out of. And at the same time in doing that, we will retain all of the necessary tools to deal with Iran’s actions in other areas that are profoundly dangerous and destabilizing.”

ARCTIC

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The United States is pleased announced that the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean which was negotiated and sign in 2018 will enter into force June 25, 2021.  This is the first multilateral agreement of its kind to take a legally binding, precautionary approach to protect an area from commercial fishing before such fishing has begun.

There were ten participants in the negotiation of and Signatories to the Agreement: Canada, the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Denmark (in respect of the Faroe Islands and Greenland), the European Union, Iceland, Japan, the Kingdom of Norway, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. In recent years China has labeled itself a “near Arctic” nation and increased its involvement in the region. Given China’s historical lack of adherence to other agreements, it is unknown if this will prevent Chinese overfishing of the fragile Arctic environment.

THURSDAY PRESS BRIEFING AT THE STATE DEPARMTENT
The State Department this week continued to appear less than forthcoming in responding to straight forward questions from reporters at the official briefing. While there are times when it is not possible to release sensitive information, the current Administration often is unwilling to address very basic questions. These are only a few of the responses to various reporters’ questions from Thursday’s official State Department briefing. “I don’t have anything to announce or report…,” “I don’t have any specific updates…,” “We have nothing to announce…,” “We don’t have anything to announce…,” “We’ll have to take that back and get back to you…,” “I don’t have anything to share…at this time…,” and “We’re continuing to work on…” the issue. Such obfuscation leaves little room for confidence in the Biden Administration’s foreign policy during a period in American history where international challenges loom large on so many fronts.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

As a child growing up in the 60’s, my mom’s mantra was “an apple a day.…” you know the rest. Eating one freed me from every having to ingest that awful cherry-tasting medicine. So, of course, I happily crunched on red, green and every color in between, right off the tree in my back yard. In April 1976 Apple Computer was founded and it yielded a new meaning to the word “apple.” Nine years later Apple Daily Newspaper was founded in Hong Kong.

Unlike the fruit and computer, I had not heard about the publication until recently and knew few details until a police raid on its headquarters last August. It was, for a while, one of the best-selling newspapers in Hong Kong. This week on Wednesday, July 23, 2021, residents of Hong Kong formed block-long lines to buy its final edition while others demonstrated outside the paper’s office in support of the publication.

What is so important about this smaller paper is that Apply Daily favored Hong Kong pan-democracy and was openly critical of the Chinese government. Its viewpoint in the end served as the death knell for the publication. With its assets frozen and the arrests of Apple Daily’s senior staff the paper was forced to announce its closure. Along with 800 staffers losing their jobs, Hong Kong lost the final thread of its freedom of speech.

The remaining Hong Kong newspapers now all run the same government-approved front page for fear that the horrific national security law could end up imprisoning them, too, as it has Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily’s founder. One of the paper’s opinion writers also was arrested this week ensuring that the former staffers are intimidated into silence. Some are fleeing Hong Kong unable to find work and fearful of retribution. Those who stay put in Hong Kong can be counted on to self-censor, according to officials. So dies the last flame of free press for Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents.

A hidden concern few dare whisper is what comes next. Is it entertainment? What about academia? With the effective end of the “One Country, Two Systems” until 2047 agreement, little is left of what was once an economic jewel. But there is more… Hong Kong is the canary in the coalmine.” Soon China may go after Taiwan. Earlier this month the incoming and outgoing heads of the US Indo-Pacific Command warned Congress that China could attack Taiwan by 2027 or sooner. Changes in the political-military environment in East Asia are coming faster than expected. It could emerge as a “Donbas”[Ukraine] style fight or an outright invasion.

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The question around Washington is not if, but when it will occur. China’s “grey zone” attacks on Taiwan are intensifying. There appears to be no consensus inside the Biden Administration about the US response to an attack on the island, with some senior officials stating that it is “not important” to US national security.  Although an outright invasion is not deemed likely in the near future, it demands America’s attention. As China pushes out past its self-declared, 9-dash line into the far reaches of the South China Sea, it time to carefully examine the Chinese leadership’s short- and long-term policy goals.

The West needs to recognize that Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping (習近平) is a firm advocate of unification. He views Taiwan as a pressing issue at the front of his political agenda and one where force may need to be employed to achieve China’s goal. Certainly, Beijing’s lack of interest in reaching out to the people in Taiwan is an indicator of Xi’s attitude. Second, is the CCP’s willingness to exert its military influence in the area around Taiwan. Incursions into Taiwanese waters and airspace occur on an almost daily basis in recent months. If Xi’s military commanders are telling him the use of China’s modern military force is now a viable option, he may be pushed into bringing the long-standing issue to conclusion sooner than expected. Is this a one-two punch condemning Taiwan to conquest? With Hong Kong failing fast, Taiwan appears to be the next piece to be acquired in China’s global chess game unless the US and other freedom-loving nations step up to help.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Over the years Russian President Vladimir Putin has proved himself a chameleon capable of effectively manipulating his political environment at home and shaping the global media’s coverage of him to obtain his strategic objectives for Russia. So, how do we interpret Putin’s meeting last week with President Joe Biden? Reports coming out of Geneva portray Putin as off message, speaking softly, sounding weak, and rambling. According to analyst Kevin Baron of Defense One, “He looked thoroughly disconnected from his own myth.” Perhaps, the question Washington needs to ask now is “Are we being led down a false path again or is Putin truly a fading dictator standing alone in what appears to be a world unifying against both the Russia and Chinese threat?” 

While other dictators in crumbling regimes may stick with Putin, they do so only to receive Russian protection and meager military handouts. Putin knows they are not loyal to him, but only to the supply of goods and money that keep them in power. At home he has to contend with Russian organized crime figures involved in illicit cyber activities and over which he has limited control. Putin also recognizes that there is a narrow window of opportunity for continuing lucrative AI and military sales to China, which Moscow desperately needs to support its military modernization program. 

The Putin-Biden meeting ended early, lasting just over three hours. According to Biden, he said the two leaders will look back at the issues discussed in about three to six months to see if any progress has been made. Topics reported under discussion included cyber security, election interference, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and arms control. “I’m not sitting here saying because the president and I agreed that we would do these things that all of a sudden it’s going to work,” Biden said. There were 16 cyber critical infrastructure sectors that he asked Putin not to attack. A senior Biden Administration official called these “destructive” sites versus those typical associated with intelligence gathering. The question analysts in Washington are asking is, ‘Did President Biden just give tacit approval for Russia’s President to attack other sites?’ Does that mean the US will not respond to Russian hacking outside of those areas listed? President Biden did not receive a response from Putin. Instead, it appears he was simply given a cyber roadmap for how far Russia can penetrate the United States without pushback from Washington. Any success in the future may be attributed more  to G7 countries and NATO leaders unifying in their opposition to Russian aggression.

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Putin faces domestic problems at home with a struggling economy and discontent among Russian politicians and businessmen with his policies. With a new cyber roadmap in hand Putin may be able to concentrate Moscow’s offensive cyber warfare efforts in a more efficient way that will be economical and productive. This is not the first time Russia has employed cyberwarfare. It has conducted cyberattacks aimed at the Ukrainian power grid and a Saudi petrochemical plant, among other targets. It appears it will not be the last time the United States comes into Putin’s line of fire. 

It is likely the Russian President felt little need to expend much energy during the Biden meeting, as the American President is not known to be strong or adept at handling facts. In referring to how Putin responded to Biden’s off-limits cyber list, Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “There’s no indication at all that he actually went along with it.” When President Obama, in 2015, made a similar request of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China agreed and then reneged as the hacking cases continued unabated. A common aphorism among Communist leaders is that is not lying if the person with whom you are speaking is not a communist. Did Putin just play Biden? The mainstream media in America will protect Biden at all costs. Only time will tell if the Geneva meeting was a success.

Photo: Vladimir Putin official picture (Russian Government)

U.S. special forces have protected America and entranced observers of military affairs for decades. Their exploits have fascinated the public in books, movies, and television series.

The target of these extraordinary warriors has generally been terrorist organizations and leaders. Notably, Seal Team Six was responsible for eliminating Osama Bin Laden.

They led the way onto Afghanistan in 2001 and will be among the last troops to leave the country at the end of the retrograde. Clarke, who served in the 82nd Airborne Division in 2002 and with the 1st Ranger Battalion in 2004 in Afghanistan, understands that world quite well. But times have changed. 

“I think most of you understand the counterterrorism mission,” he said. “Competition, or as some refer to it as strategic competition, may be less familiar. In short, it’s winning without fighting. It’s taking actions below the level of combat.” 

But the world is facing a threat that dwarfs that posed by al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban. Increasingly, the combined military might of China and Russia poses an existential threat against the very existence of the free world. In response, special operators are evolving the meet the devastating new challenge.  

Unlike the mostly kinetic actions in the extended War on Terror, Clarke said the contest in the information space will impact all domains of warfare. “To be clear, it is a battle in the cognitive space,” he said. “It takes place on the Internet, but not always. This is purely distinct from cyber from the ones and zeros in the [Colonial] pipeline attack. It is a cognitive space where we must prevail.”

Clarke recalls that roughly 95 percent of his time was spent on finding and killing or capturing enemy forces. “Today, if you visit our commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan, they’ll say that they focus 60 percent or more of their time on non-lethal effects in the information space,” he said.

All this requires that special operations forces commanders get the tools they need to decide and act more quickly. They also need the capabilities to more effectively interact with allies and partners and with local populations. 

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New technologies or new ways of using technologies will be key moving forward, he said. “How do we more effectively search through our mountains of data? that is across all classifications and all domains,” he asked. “How do I move data from [unclassified] to secret to top secret, with no problem, and so it is useful? How do we harness mission command of our forces, … but also combined operations with ours, so that we’re all seeing the same picture?”

Technology will be the answer to these questions and more not even thought of yet, he said.

Special Operations Command is reaching out to industry partners and experts in academia to solve these problems. Clarke is opening the command to specialists in these technologies and more to improve capabilities and build capacity.

He worries about Special Operations Command falling behind competitors. “We have to maintain the budget and the resources to continue moving forward,” Clarke said.

“As we go forward, we’re going to face different pressures tomorrow, different but I would argue even more vital to our national security,” he said. “Our threats have continued to evolve: Cyber threats, … Chinese activities globally, and Russian disinformation each and every day. Reorienting our momentum towards strategic competition, we must modernize with purpose.

“Even as these threats evolve, why am I still confident we’ll rise to this challenge? Because as I reflect back to Afghanistan and the changes we’ve made, we’ve done it before and we’ll do it again.”

Photo: Department of Defense

A vigorous debate is healthy and good for a nation. In the turmoil and contest of ideas, the best and most useful concepts should win out. But when lies replace facts, the discussion turns harmful. That’s happening in America now.  There are several clear untruths that not only affect specific topics, but damage the unity of the country. Leftist politicians, as well as key biased informational outlets, the mainstream media, and universities, are the key perpetrators. 

These are the subjects most affected:

Allegations of Systemic Racism. Yes, there are individuals who harbor and act out on racist impulses. That’s inevitable in a nation of over 300 million. But the claim of systemic racism is wholly false. There are no laws, regulations or procedures that allow racism. To falsely allege that there are promotes unnecessary division and anger, and is used to foster a radical agenda.  

Heather MacDonald, writing for the Manhattan Institute, reports: “This charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today. However sickening the video of Floyd’s arrest, it isn’t representative of the 375 million annual contacts that police officers have with civilians. A solid body of evidence finds no structural bias in the criminal-justice system with regard to arrests, prosecution or sentencing. Crime and suspect behavior, not race, determine most police actions.”

  Election integrity is partisan. Even before the tumultuous 2020 election, the question of election integrity was a major debate. Honest attempts to ensure the integrity of the ballot through voter id, verifiable registrations, etc. are NOT “suppression.”

 Pew Center on the States study found “millions of voter registration records nationwide that are either inaccurate or no longer valid…based on data [indicating] a voter died, moved, or had been inactive from 2004 to March 2011.”  The study revealed that 2,758,578 individuals were registered to vote in more than one state.  In addition, “12.7 million records nationwide…appear to be out of date and no longer reflect the voter’s current information, more than 1.8 million records for people who are no longer living, but have active registrations on voter rolls, and 12 million records with incorrect addresses…once duplicates among categories are eliminated, approximately 24 million registration records, or nearly 13% of the national total, are estimated to be inaccurate or no longer valid.”

Jack Kelly, in a Pittsburg Post-Gazette article, notes that there have been recent investigations, indictments, or convictions for vote fraud in California, Texas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Maryland.

 Hans Spakovsky, writing in the Free Speech & Election Law Practices  publication, emphasizes the problem of noncitizens registering to vote.  He reports that in a random sampling of 3,000 registrations in California’s 39th Assembly District, 10% contained phony addresses or were not U.S. citizens.

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Defense spending is just another government program.  For decades, many electeds have bargained their support for necessary military allocations by demanding pork barrel projects for their districts, or for various other programs.  The premise that national security can be used as a bargaining chip is not only false, but dangerous. 

You don’t have to be an expert on military issues to observe China’s massive military buildup, and its unprecedented aggression in the Indo-Pacific.  Russia’s Putin seeks to restore the Soviet Empire, and has invaded and occupied portions of neighboring nations.

 Freedom of speech is an optional right. Adherence to the First Amendment is not optional, and the attempts to portray it as such are dishonest. The framers of the Constitution were clear. Freedom of speech and assembly is not open to interpretation or limitation. It is a myth that, in the public square speech can be constitutionally “cancelled,” in other words, censored. Several years ago, Senator Charles Schumer called for the weakening of free speech rights, alleging that paid political speech is not covered by the First Amendment. He stated that “The First Amendment is sacred, but it is not absolute.” Frighteningly, he received the support of the Democrat delegation. Happily, that was not enough to secure passage of the measure. CNN, which has emerged less as a news organization than as a spokesman for Progressive views, has called for the “blacklisting” of conservative news sites.

America can be the world’s welfare agency. We are asked to accept the fallacy that it is the duty of U.S. taxpayers to support the poor across the globe. Not only is that unfair to Americans, but it encourages corrupt and incompetent governments to continue their poor practices. 

Open borders are a part of this. Allowing significant numbers of aliens to enter the nation, taking jobs from Americans and diverting funds from helping citizens to assisting new unlawful arrivals is absolutely wrong, 

The Federation for American Immigration Reform  provides this estimate of costs: “At the federal, state, and local levels, taxpayers shell out approximately $134.9 billion to cover the costs incurred by the presence of more than 12.5 million illegal aliens, and about 4.2 million citizen children of illegal aliens. That amounts to a tax burden of approximately $8,075 per illegal alien family member and a total of $115,894,597,664. The total cost of illegal immigration to U.S. taxpayers is both staggering and crippling. In 2013, FAIR estimated the total cost to be approximately $113 billion.”

Unlimited spending is ok. Judd Gregg, opinion editor for The Hill, reveals how deep the crisis is: “The most disconcerting shift in the Biden budget is its radical expansion of the size of the federal government as a percentage of national economic activity. For the first time in our history, other than during the Second World War, the federal government will absorb almost 25 percent of our nation’s wealth under the Biden budget. If you add in the activities of states and cities, government spending will easily exceed a quarter of the country’s economic output…Approximately $5.4 trillion of spending on new programs or expanded federal social programs is proposed in the Biden budget over ten years.”

Those who perpetuated these clearly false ideas in pursuit of “fundamentally transforming” America in a socialist model are not engaging in honest debate.  They are engaging in mendacious propaganda.

With nations such as North Korea, Iran, Russia and China all maturing their missile technology, the Defense Department plans to launch a review of its own missile defense policies, strategies and capabilities over the next few months, testified Leonor Tomero, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Thirty-five years ago, President Reagan first announced his “Strategic Defense Initiative,” (SDI) designed to provide an anti-ballistic (ABM) missile shield to protect the U.S. from nuclear attack.  Some historians believe the announcement was at least one factor in the Soviet leadership’s realization that they could not win the Cold War.  The move was resoundingly criticized by left-wing politicians and pundits, who pejoratively labelled the concept “Star Wars.”

SDI was never built, and even less capable systems were only marginally deployed. President Clinton cancelled a follow-up program known as “Brilliant Pebbles” and Barack Obama, first as a U.S. Senator, then as President, did everything possible to defund and even reduce various elements of ABM defenses.  in 2007, then-Senator Obama advocated cutting the anti-ballistic missile program budget by a greater amount than its entire allocated budget.

Generally, what exists of the minimal U.S. missile defense systems have been designed to defend against ballistic missiles. However, the Trump administration’s 2019 Missile Defense Review most clearly noted that the United States will be looking for ways to defend against non-ballistic missiles.

Cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles are two additional categories of missiles. Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles remain within the atmosphere for the duration of their flight. Cruise missiles are propelled by jet engines and can be launched from land-, air-, or sea-based platforms. Due to their constant propellants, they are more maneuverable than ballistic missiles, though they are also slower than their ballistic counterparts.

The latest review will be coordinated across the DoD, including such entities as the Missile Defense Agency, U.S. Northern Command, NORAD and the acquisition community, Ms. Tomero said.

“We’ll look at the threat in the changing security environment … how do we improve and have effective and affordable missile defense for both the homeland and regional defense,” she said.

That review will be a part of the National Defense Strategy, which Tomero said should be completed by January 2022.

According to testimony filed by Tomero with the committee, the review will be guided by a handful of principles from defense against rogue states’ intercontinental ballistic missiles to assure allies the U.S. continues to be committed to security partnerships.

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With ICBMs, Tomero said, the missile defense review will focus on ensuring the U.S. has an affordable defense against rogue state ICBMs. There, missile defense must protect against limited attacks by those ICBMs, she said, and also limit their use as a threat.

“This protection will also contribute to diminishing the coercive potential of these states who may seek to constrain the ability of the United States to provide credible security assurances to our allies and partners during a crisis or conflict,” Tomero noted.

The missile defense review will also evaluate the ability of U.S. missile defense capabilities so that the U.S. can operate with allies and partners on exercises and regional defense.

“Our regional missile defenses will continue to contribute to the United States’ ability to operate throughout the world,” she testified. “They will enable regional and transregional military operations and exercises, providing force protection in contested environments.”

The review will evaluate the continued ability of the U.S. missile defense capability to assure allies of the United States’ commitment to security partnerships.

“Not only will missile defense partnerships reinforce the indivisibility of U.S. and allied joint security interests, these relationships will also provide opportunities for allied and partner cooperation, co-development, and burden sharing,” according to the DoD.

Photo: DoD

HONG KONG

The State Department condemned the arrest of five senior executives from Apple Daily and their parent company, Next Digital by Hong Kong authorities. In an ongoing campaign of suppression of free speech, officials have wielded the national security law as a tool to suppress independent media, to silence dissenting views, and to stifle freedom of expression. The State Department Spokesman, Ned Price, said these actions “undermine Beijing’s obligations, their own obligations under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which is a binding international agreement, to uphold Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and protected rights and freedoms.” He called on authorities to “stop targeting the independent and free media.” Efforts to stifle media freedom and to restrict the free flow of information have undermined Hong Kong’s democratic institutions and the business community in recent years.

IRAN

The State Department said it is continuing indirect talks with the Iranian government concerning its ongoing failure to comply with nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA. Iran’s production of uranium is now enriched up to 60 percent. Price said “That is of continuing serious concern. If Iran wants the diplomatic solution it says it seeks, it must set aside such provocative steps.” In a weak statement Price said: “We would like to build and be in a position to build on the meaningful progress that has been achieved during the last round of talks.”  The IAEA-Iran deal expires on June 24^th if the 6^th round of diplomatic talks fail.  

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a follow-on call recently with Chinese  Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi  to discuss potential areas for cooperation between the PRC and the United States. According to Price, it included a discussion on climate change, Iran, and human rights among other issues. He added that the US “will be in a position of strength” once the US has its allies working with Washington. 

GERMANY

A written statement issued by the State Department said that Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with German State Secretary Miguel Berger today in Washington, D.C.  The lead in the release said that Sherman discussed climate change and added “They also discussed the importance of cooperating on a joint approach to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia…  The Deputy Secretary underscored the importance of European energy security, reiterating the United States’ opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.”  In recent days it appears that the Biden Administration is placing additional emphasis on climate change over other great power challenges.

RUSSIA

In a briefing this week by a senior State Department official concerning the President’s recent meeting with Russian President Putin, the official said that Biden talked about his approach to Russia but it “Doesn’t mean that’s going to convince him [Putin] at all.  It does mean that by sharing that, communicating it clearly, maybe it lessens a little bit the possibility of miscommunication, misunderstanding.  And I think the President believes very strongly in being – just being very clear and direct, and that was the nature of the meeting.” The briefing was couched in vague terms such as there was “some productive movement in a few areas” and Washington got “an agreement to get our experts together to consult on issues….” The official concluded by stating that: “The real purpose is to have this direct engagement to be able to be very clear about what we stand for, why we stand for it, where our concerns are, and where we think there may be opportunities to work together and to bring a little bit more stability and predictability into the relationship… I think, again, the positive, productive step was an agreement to get teams and experts together, but it – this is going to take a while to see if there’s any real traction.” It appears little progress was made between the two world leaders.