Month: May 2020

Iran has launched its first military satellite into orbit, signaling a new era of threats from space. The nation, which openly and frequently calls for “Death to America” now essentially has the capability to utilize intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The Islamic Republic joins China, Russia and North Korea as a threat to America from above the atmosphere.  The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has provided a summary of the danger presented by these states. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government will present key parts of that report over the next three days.

Space-based capabilities provide integral support to military, commercial, and civilian applications. Longstanding technological and cost barriers to space are falling, enabling more countries and commercial firms to participate in satellite construction, space launch, space exploration, and human spaceflight. Although these advancements are creating new opportunities, new risks for space-enabled services have emerged. Having seen the benefits of space-enabled operations, some foreign governments are developing capabilities that threaten others’ ability to use space. China and Russia, in particular, have taken steps to challenge the United States:

• Chinese and Russian military doctrines indicate that they view space as important to modern warfare and view counterspace capabilities as a means to reduce U.S. and allied military effectiveness. Both reorganized their militaries in 2015, emphasizing the importance of space operations.

 • Both have developed robust and capable space services, including space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Moreover, they are making improvements to existing systems, including space launch vehicles and satellite navigation constellations. These capabilities provide their militaries with the ability to command and control their forces worldwide and also with enhanced situational awareness, enabling them to monitor, track, and target U.S. and allied forces.

• Chinese and Russian space surveillance networks are capable of searching, tracking, and characterizing satellites in all earth orbits. This capability supports both space operations and counterspace systems.

• Both states are developing jamming and cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, and ground-based antisatellite missiles that can achieve a range of reversible to nonreversible effects. Iran and North Korea also pose a challenge to militaries using space-enabled services, as each has demonstrated jamming capabilities. Iran and North Korea maintain independent space launch capabilities, which can serve as avenues for testing ballistic missile technologies. The advantage the United States holds in space—and its perceived dependence on it—will drive actors to improve their abilities to access and operate in and through space. These improvements can pose a threat to space-based services across the military, commercial, and civil space sectors

Although the United States and the former Soviet Union dominated early space activities, space capabilities have proliferated over the past six decades as technological and cost barriers have fallen. These capabilities provide important support to many of society’s daily activities, including communications, navigation, financial transactions, and weather monitoring. As of 2018, over 1,800 active satellites are on orbit, which are owned and operated by over 50 countries and multinational organizations.1 Nine countries and one international organization can independently launch spacecraft: China, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, the United States, and the European Space Agency (from French Guiana).

Space has also become more commercialized. The commercial space sector is involved in space launch, communications, space situational awareness, remote sensing, and even human spaceflight. These firms not only supply products to governments, but they also compete commercially.

The number of objects on orbit—both active satellites and orbital debris—will continue to increase rapidly with the wider availability of lower cost, small satellites and with the prospect of large constellations consisting of thousands of satellites. The challenge of space congestion will grow, and actors will need better capabilities to track and identify objects and prevent collisions in space.

Space capabilities have become central to many military operations, including missile warning, geolocation and navigation, target identification, and tracking of adversary activities. The military and intelligence collection capabilities that government and commercial remote sensing satellites provide is reducing the ability of all countries to remain undetected while performing sensitive testing and evaluation activities or military exercises and operations.

Some actors are seeking ways to deny the effectiveness of the United States, having witnessed more than 25 years of U.S. military successes enabled by space capabilities.8 China and Russia, in particular, are developing a variety of means to exploit perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems and challenge the U.S. position in space.9 Iran and North Korea also have demonstrated some counterspace capabilities that could pose a threat to militaries using space-based services.

While China and Russia are developing counterspace weapons systems, they are promoting agreements at the United Nations that limit weaponization of space. Their proposals do not address many space warfare capabilities, and they lack verification mechanisms, which provides room for China and Russia to continue to develop counterspace weapons.10,11 The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction on orbit and on any celestial body and it prohibits using celestial bodies for military bases, testing, or maneuvers. 107 states have ratified the treaty, including the United States, China, North Korea, and Russia. Iran is one of 23 states that have signed, but not ratified, the treaty.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Photo: Tech. Sgt. Michael Vandenbosch, 22nd Space Operations Squadron defensive counter-space operator, uses software to identify interference to a specific satellite at Schriever Air Force Base, Colorado (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Jonathan Whitely)

Words matter. Perspective matters. Four years ago, China abruptly changed the name of its major international economic development strategy from “One Belt, One Road” (一条皮带一条路)to the “Belt and Road Initiative,”(一带一路倡议)or BRI. Officials in the CCP believed the connotation of “one” could be misunderstood by foreign audiences. Curiously, though, the Chinese language version remained unaltered and still is the standard naming protocol used today by Chinese state media. Understanding the reasons behind the change in moniker, and the scope of Chinese BRI activities, reveals a lot about how the Chinese leadership operates.

Hegemonic power, global leadership, and BRI all are terms found in senior Chinese officials’ vernacular. The concepts of misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda also are found in the CCP toolkit. Western policy makers need to understand China’s expertise in manipulating the world to achieve its end goals. The meaning behind the vague terms that China employs to showcase its global ambitions is revealing. So are the differences in interpretation between the words presented to the domestic Chinese population and those chosen for foreign audiences. To analysts it delineates the gap between the CCP leadership’s goals and what level of interference Beijing believes foreign governments will tolerate.

After Chinese princeling, CCP Chairman, and President, Xi Jinping consolidated power in 2012, and ended term limits on the presidency, he officially emerged as the most powerful leader in the country since Mao Zedong. A year later he announced his “One Belt, One Road” initiative with the objective of using his elevated platform to further China’s global ambitions. As the major cornerstone of his legacy, Xi is closely tied to its success. He has spent trillions on BRI efforts in over 100 countries around the globe. Some critics view the soft power policy as an attempt to turn China into a global hegemon, while others choose to believe in China’s benign beneficence. 

Despite which perspective developing countries hold it is becoming evident the BRI is not the panacea as originally portrayed by Beijing. China’s direct foreign investment in infrastructure development has saddled many small, poor nations with record high debt, created political instability, waste, unused expensive infrastructure (often using low quality construction materials) and fostered corruption among greedy local politicians. Unlike the United States, China willingly overlooks human rights and other abuses in the recipient countries under the guise of its official “non-interference” policy. For the corrupt and greedy it is an open invitation to become richer through malevolent means. 

Once entrapped countries have few options to extricate themselves from the communist giant’s debt web. China built an unneeded, large port facility at Hambantota in Sri Lanka. When it couldn’t pay back its loan the Sri Lankan government surrendered the port to China by offering Beijing a 99-year lease on the port in lieu of payments. Although there has been some backslash, the China Merchant Port Co. still receives profits from the facility. In Malaysia, the people opposed China’s BRI projects and the negative influences that followed – corruption, greed, anti-China sentiment. It resulted in the expulsion of the prime minister and the first loss by the country’s ruling political party since its independence 63 years ago. 

China doesn’t create the debt problem, but it does take advantage of the developing world’s financial situation. A similar cycle of ill-conceived borrowing to build large, Chinese-funded, infrastructure projects is repeated across the globe from southeast Asia, to Africa, and Latin America. Although China is without unlimited funds, Xi Jinping runs a literal “geopolitical enterprise” that is bankrupting poor nations in an attempt to garner hegemonic influence and global recognition through the back door. His plan: to redefine the world view according to Chinese CCP practices and standards. 

Countries are slowly waking to recognize China’s malevolent behavior and long-term goals in the aftermath of the Wuhan virus. Covid-19 may end up waking more leaders and create additional opportunities for smart nations to refuse the glittering treasures China promises with its BRI. Recently, Tuvalu, a tiny South Pacific island nation, rejected Beijing’s $400 million offer to build it artificial islands. Simon Kofe, Tuvalu’s Foreign Minister, reportedly said that it intends to stand up and counter China’s growing military influence in the region. The Solomon Islands appear to be following Tuvalu’s lead. Perhaps, these small countries may end up teaching the lesson many others are missing?  There is more than “one road” leading to development and prosperity. In the end, a microscopic virus woke the world and now the “belt” may become a noose and end China’s global ambitions for the next few decades. It only will occur if leaders pay attention to Xi Jinping’s too good to be true offer.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: President Xi visits a factory ( Xinhua photo)

While key Democrats concentrate more on criticizing Trump than China’s liability for COVID-19, and its aggressive militarism in Asia, Republicans are taking steps to respond to Beijing’s actions.

Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) has introduced a bill that would dramatically increase investment—$43 billion in total—for military infrastructure, weapons, and other assets in the Indo-Pacific region.

According to a release from Senator Cotton’s office, “The Forging Operational Resistance to Chinese Expansion (FORCE) Act is a critical investment in the United States’ ability to compete with China. The bill will help thwart the Chinese Communist Party’s main geopolitical aim in the wake of the China virus: pushing the United States out of the Western Pacific, intimidating its neighbors, and achieving cross-strait unification with Taiwan via military force.”

 The bill also shields the U.S. defense-industrial base—especially small suppliers and manufacturers—from the China virus’s economic fallout.

“The Chinese Communist Party will try to exploit the world’s weakness in the wake of a virus it unleashed. We cannot allow it to succeed. The FORCE Act will greatly strengthen the United States’ position in the Indo-Pacific, allowing us to block China’s goals of regional dominance, and ultimately, competition with the United States,” said Cotton.

The measure would provide $6.1 billion to regain the advantage in the Indo-Pacific region, $9.2 billion in capability increases for great power competition, $11.0 billion for mitigating coronavirus impacts to procurement programs, $3.3 billion for mitigating coronavirus impacts to defense industrial base, $1.5 billion for hospital ship recapitalization, and $12 billion to enhance national resilience and critical infrastructure.

 In another response to Beijing, a number of states’ attorneys general are seeking to sue Beijing for damages caused by the Communist nation’s malfeasance in the COVID-19 matter.

In an unprecedented move, 18 Republican attorneys general (from South Carolina, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia) are calling on Congress to investigate the communist Chinese government’s role in the coronavirus pandemic. South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson led a multi-state letter sent to the leadership of the U.S. House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees, Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader, and other congressional leaders, including the newly formed China Task Force. In the letter, the state attorneys general call for a congressional investigation into China for working with the World Health Organization to intentionally mislead the international community about the outbreak of the pandemic. 

In the letter, the attorneys general agree with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent statements that China engaged in a “classic communist disinformation effort.” The letter states, “Recent reports suggest that the communist Chinese government willfully and knowingly concealed information about the severity of the virus while simultaneously stockpiling personal protective equipment. The Chinese government’s mishandling and deliberate deception has caused nearly 80,000 American deaths and severe economic hardships for millions of Americans. Republican attorneys general are holding communist China accountable for its deadly actions.”

The letter by the 18-state coalition concludes, “We must all hold China accountable for the devastation and destruction caused by COVID-19. Tens of thousands have died from the virus and millions have lost their jobs. Countless businesses, both big and small, will perish and our states will grapple with tough economic decisions for years to come.”

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt filed the first lawsuit against China on April 21 citing a “campaign of deceit” on the part of the Chinese related to the outbreak of the pandemic.

The lawsuit states that “An appalling campaign of deceit, concealment, misfeasance, and inaction by Chinese authorities unleashed this pandemic. During the critical weeks of the initial outbreak, Chinese authorities deceived the public, suppressed crucial information, arrested whistleblowers, denied human-to-human transmission in the face of mounting evidence, destroyed critical medical research, permitted millions of people to be exposed to the virus, and even hoarded personal protective equipment—thus causing a global pandemic that was unnecessary and preventable. Defendants are responsible for the enormous death, suffering, and economic losses they inflicted on the world, including Missourians, and they should be held accountable.”

 In addition, Mississippi Attorney General Lynn Fitch announced her decision to also file a lawsuit holding China accountable.

Illustration: Pixabay

Throughout the nation, doctors and nurses heroically man the front lines in hospitals.  Grocers, truckers and other essential workers put aside their fears and face the danger that each day of the Wuhan virus brings.  Members of the U.S. armed forces remain on station throughout the world.  The President faces an openly hostile media almost daily to bring his Administration’s news to the public. The Senate is debating key strategies.  And the House of Representatives under Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.)…was too frightened to return to work on time last Tuesday.

It was an act of cowardice unprecedented in American history. Certainly, there is a risk, but no greater, indeed far, far less, than the medical personnel, essential workers, and soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen face. Pelosi’s decision contrasts sharply with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky) belief that the Senate would not “sit on the sidelines.” 

Despite the clear message that Speaker Pelosi and her Majority Leader Steny Hoyer essentially delivered, one that told the American people that their Representatives were more important than the citizenry they are supposed to serve, very little criticism, indeed, shockingly little, came from most of the media.

During times of crisis, those not up to the job, or lacking the moral fortitude to fulfill their responsibilities become exposed. That is certainly the case with the COVID-19 pandemic.

While some Senators and Representatives have sought to enact “clean” COVID relief bills strictly addressing the issue at hand, others, largely led by Pelosi and Hoyer in the House and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY), have sought to use the opportunity to push a partisan agenda.

The noted watchdog organization Citizens Against Government Waste (CCAGW) has “launched an Action Alert campaign targeting House and Senate members demanding that they protect the interests of taxpayers as the government continues to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. The campaign demands that all funds allocated to address the crisis are spent responsibly and transparently; that money is not used to promote a partisan political agenda; and that spending is targeted to only address the pandemic. As a key example, they cite House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) “for trying to exploit the coronavirus crisis to implement a radical agenda. In March, Rep. Clyburn called the COVID-19 pandemic ‘a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision.’ By ‘our vision, ’Rep. Clyburn meant the House Democrats’ attempt to take advantage of the crisis to shove frivolous expenditures into the $2.2 trillion CARES Act … When he introduced the CARES Act, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned, ‘Any [spending] doesn’t address that pandemic … should not be considered.’ Despite that reasonable request, Rep. Clyburn and House Democrats leveraged the bill to include items like a $25 million bailout for the Kennedy Center, which subsequently fired its staff.’”

 A Federalist review of Speaker Pelosi’s actions in the first COVID legislative initiative, which was supposed to be bipartisan, found a stunning level of overtly political goals. In addition to intersectional aims, the bill tackles lofty climate change goals, demanding airlines “fully offset the annual carbon emissions … for domestic flights beginning in 2025” and giving passengers information “regarding greenhouse gas emissions resulting from each individual flight.” Meanwhile, because of the global pandemic this bill purports to address, the State Department has issued a Level 4: Do Not Travel advisory, the highest-level warning, which “advises U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel due to the global impact of COVID-19.” While Pelosi slides Green New Deal-like hokum into an urgent public health bill, most international travel has been halted, domestic air travel has become a “virtual shutdown,” and many cruise lines have canceled operations — making the green provisions even more impertinent. Further, the bill pushes collective bargaining for federal workers and changes to the IRS code for retirement plans for community journalists, two irrelevant points relative to the health crisis at hand.”

Photo: House Chamber (Office of the Architect, U.S. Capitol)

The Chinese leadership has labeled the last two decades a “period of strategic opportunity” for the country. President Xi Jinping has, on numerous occasions, said that China must learn lessons from the collapse of Soviet Union to be a global power and that all options are on the table. In recent years, the CCP has dramatically increased its military spending, aggressive international behavior, and even shown its willing to export Chinese students to form the point of the spear, plunged in the heart of the west. The COVID-19 virus is renewing interest into China’s long-overlooked methods and goals. In the United States China is at its lowest level of popularity since the Tiananmen massacre in 1989.

Ninety percent of Americans in a recent PEW Research Center survey believe China is a threat, with well over 55% viewing it as a “major threat.” The danger is not new. In August 2018 Dr. Francis Collins, Director of NIH, wrote a letter to 10,000 research institutions in the US pointing out that “threats to the integrity of US biomedical research exist. NIH is aware that some foreign entities have mounted systematic programs to influence NIH researchers and peer reviewers and to take advantage of the long tradition of trust, fairness and excellence of NIH-supported research activities.” The FBI also is aware and responding, in part, by visiting colleges campus administrators to explain the reality of the threat it faces from its Chinese students and to request their assistance. Yet, somehow, over the last few decades the US Government continues to allot more visas to Chinese students than to any other nationality; and most of those are granted to STEM majors. 

What is the problem and how can the US identify the underlying causes of the threat to US national security and to the American economy? This is the question that Washington should be addressing in 2020. 

Although China conducts a highly-sophisticated, cyber warfare program, Chinese intelligence still operates using a shotgun approach on American college campuses. The concept is that the more “nodes,” in this case Chinese students,  spread across America the better the odds of Beijing receiving actionable intelligence. Each Chinese student is a potential “access agent,” or covert influencer. As a Chinese intelligence official told me long ago, one grain of sand is not an irritant and it doesn’t form a beachhead, but a million grains of sand, that is something to stand on. Although most Chinese students entering the US are here for legitimate educational purposes, they still form a beachhead of 800,000 F, M, and J visa-holding individuals obliged to their homeland.

In any given year, an average of a half million Chinese are studying on American campuses and working in American research labs. In FY 2019 alone Chinese nationals were granted 117,000 F visas. The next largest allotment went to India with only 46,000. China also receives the 2^nd highest total of green cards behind only Mexico. The reality is China has weaponized immigration to infuse spies into the United States.

Most Chinese students come to the US with no plans to work for Chinese intelligence, but all are well aware of what their government expects from them. They must receive permission from the government to be allowed to leave China. Then they are briefed before departing and upon their return. Many are concerned about the fate of their families back home if they don’t cooperate when approached by Chinese intelligence agents. Using students as a “fifth column” compresses the amount of time China needs to acquire new technologies. Dr Collins wrote that “This kind of inappropriate influence is not limited to biomedical research; it has been a significant issue for defense and energy research for some time.”

Many Chinese nationals work on post-grad science and technology research projects in the private sector while in the US. Today more than 80% of all Department of Justice cases of economic espionage involve China. They are connected to 60% of all trade secret thefts for the last decade. Yet few Chinese entities, outside of Huawei, are even on the trade blacklist. The cases that do make the news, like the recent arrest of a Harvard University Chemistry and Chemical  Biology Department head, are only the tip of the spearhead. Increased cyber exploitation, expanded Internet access, global travel and advanced payment technologies add to the difficulty of identifying and catching those who would do harm to the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic put the world on “pause” for the moment. It may the West’s last opportunity to address the Chinese student threat.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay