Month: January 2020

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U.S. Adversaries Hope for Trump Defeat

In his four years as President, Donald Trump has, to an unprecedented degree, taken on difficult and at times politically unrewarding measures aimed at enhancing U.S. national security and tackling trade and espionage endeavors that have harmed the American economy. 

Those nations most affected by these initiatives, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran would like nothing more than to see the 45th President replaced by a more traditional politician.  The fact that all of Trump’s Democratic opponents favor non-confrontational, defense funding reduction policies make them all the more eager to do everything they can to get him out of office.  Expect them to do everything they can to make 2020 as difficult as possible to attain that goal.

The president’s restoration of funds to America’s armed forces, his realistic policy towards Iran, his determination to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, his bid to slash Russian influence in Europe by replacing it as a major source of energy and, perhaps above all, his get-tough attitude towards China’s espionage and trade aggression have motivated those nations to do all they can to insure his tenure ends at a single term.

 Expect Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran to do all that they can to harm Trump’s reputation in 2020.  They will do so secure in the knowledge that the utterly left-wing biased American media, in their own bid to unseat the president, will print, broadcast, and upload all they can to end his presidency, without reviewing the critical goals of those four countries.

A Voice of America article noted that: “With North Korea signaling bigger provocations in 2020, some analysts worry the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, could overplay his hand and make a dangerous miscalculation, especially if Kim believes he can affect U.S. President Donald Trump’s reelection chances…The moves suggest an emboldened Kim believes he can hold out for a better deal, possibly because he sees Trump as weakened by impeachment and a tough reelection campaign that is set to enter a more intense phase.”

China’s potential gain from a Trump defeat is vast.  Before the 45th president took office, Beijing’s stunning record of intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices were met with little substantive resistance.  The same could be said for its massive increase in conventional and strategic weaponry.

One example typifies the reluctance of prior administrations to met the challenges.  During the Obama Administration, China blatantly invaded the Philippines’ offshore Exclusive Economic Zone, a move that was eventually condemned by the World Court at the Hague.  Despite the long-standing ties between Washington and Manila, President Obama failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest.  It was an unprecedented betrayal, and a green light for further PRC adventurism and aggression.

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Much the same could be said for Russia.  During the Obama Administration, the U.S. did little beyond imposing relatively weak sanctions in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. Early in the former president’s tenure, the White House agreed to a nuclear arms deal that gave Moscow, for the first time in history, a lead in nuclear weaponry.  China was left totally unrestricted.

It got even worse. In 2012, Obama, believing that his microphone was shut off, told Russia’s Dimitry Medvedev during a meeting in South Korea that he would be “more flexible” in reducing America’s missile defenses after the U.S. elections.

 The most significant kowtowing towards Moscow was a side-result of the anti-energy producing policies espoused by the prior president, and his refusal to confront Russia’s use of energy to blackmail Europe.

The controversy over President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, and his imposition of tough sanctions on the Tehran regime was a total reversal from his predecessor. Obama championed the agreement, which, even if fully complied with, gave Iran the complete legal right to develop nuclear weapons by 2025. His administration sent, quite literally, pallet-loads of untraceable cash to the Mullahs.  Overall, Obama’s policies were a significant tilt away from Israel and moderate Arab states and towards the extremists in Tehran.  The Mullahs would like nothing more than to see Trump out of office.

Expect Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to engage in a number of endeavors meant to weaken Trump’s image going into the 2020 election.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

IRAN

Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook spoke with reporters this week when announcing additional sanctions on Iran in support of the Administration’s Maximum Pressure campaign. He noted that Secretary Pompeo recently promised to hold Iran accountable for its human rights violations and for its treatment of the Iranian people. In doing so, he said that the US Government is listing IRGC Brigadier General Hassan Shahvarpour under Section 7031(c) visa sanctions.  General Shahvarpour committed gross violations of human rights against protesters in Mahshahr and oversaw the massacre of 148 helpless Iranians in the Mahshahr region last November.

According to Hook, one of the over 88,000 tips sent through the State Department’s hotline since last November made the action possible.  He added: “We use this information to expose the criminality of the regime and to hold violators accountable.  Since the violent crackdown on protests last November, the United States has sanctioned two judges and eight other regime officials for their roles in brutalizing the Iranian people.  We are continuing to review all information we receive from the Iranian people, and we will continue to hold more regime officials responsible for human rights violations.”

Iran is in an economic crisis that also has contributed to the unrest in the country. The Iranian people are opposing state corruption. The pressure put on by the sanctions, according to Hook, had led to more than 25% unemployment rate among young Iranians and an inflation rate of 40%. It is this group that is calling strongly for reform, among others. “We have succeeded in raising the costs for Iran,” he noted, “and the regime is badly managing an economic crisis of its own making.”

Iranian oil exports have decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, according to the State Department, thus reducing its oil revenue by more than 80%, or about $50 billion annually. The result is that Iran is less able to fund terrorist activity throughout the region.

RUSSIA

When asked to comment about the changes in the Russian government, Secretary of State Pompeo that it does appear that President Putin is attempting to make himself president for life and retain control after the 2024 elections. It was announced recently that top leaders, such as Dmitri Medvedev among others, have resigned from the Russian government. This all but ensures that Putin will gain even more control over the Russian government.

CHINA

China and the United State inked phase one of a trade agreement the President is calling “historic.” Commenting on the agreement Pompeo said that he thinks it is “…consistent with our National Security Strategy where we identified the fact that this is a long-term challenge and there’s real opportunity there as well, but we have to make sure and get this right….”

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He acknowledged that there are many constraints remaining in the US-China relationship, including issues surrounding China’s activity in the South China Sea, human rights conditions inside the country, and the use of Chinese funds to buy influence internationally.

Another stumbling block to better relations is the resolution of intellectual property rights disputes between the two countries. Pompeo noted that when he was in northern California, he met with American business people who discussed that challenges they face when dealing with China, especially in the area of China’s unfair direct investment policy toward US companies. When asked about American firms selling surveillance equipment to China to spy on its own people, the Secretary pointed out that the US has a strict set of laws covering the topic. He added that China conducts illegal business activity despite the rules. He added that China still buys Iranian oil despite US attempts to halt the sales that are in violation of the US sanctions regime. The Secretary promised that Washington is going to do everything it can to enforce sanctions against every violator of the US trade restrictions.

NORTH KOREA

The US and North Korea are continuing to talk behind-the-scenes according to Pompeo. He noted that the United States is interested in convincing President Kim that it is in his best interest to deliver on the promised he made 18 months ago. The talks to date have been a back and forth process in which the North Korean has made, and then failed to fulfill, promises to the United States and the world. Pompeo said that he is positive that the North potentially will make the correct decision in the future as the weapons systems they have pose a real threat to the North Korean people and the world.

Pompeo added that “…if we can get the right arrangement, if we can get the sequence right, and we can have serious conversations about it, I still hold out hope that we can convince Chairman Kim to move away from the nuclear weapons as their great wall of protection and convince them that there is a brighter, even more secure posture that they can have without those nuclear weapons.” 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay


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China in the Arctic

Daria Novak, a former U.S. State Department official with significant experience in Chinese affairs, authored this column. She writes each Friday on related topics.

China is the only nation preparing for the Transpolar Passage, which likely will be commercially viable in a few decades and cut straight through the North Pole. If there is only one season of open water the normally fifteen-foot thick, multi-year ice will upon refreezing be very thin in the following years, even if temperatures grow colder. Russia’s nuclear ice breakers will no longer be required to keep open the passage. And, the now open route will cut two to three weeks off a trip through the Suez Canal making a dramatic difference between loss and profit for China. It also will help its ships avoid passing through waters controlled by East African pirates and western-dominated choke points. But is the 30% shorter sea route and increased profit for China’s shipping industry the sole motive for making political investments in the Arctic? 

At the beginning of the 21st century Chinese planners began to consider seriously a long-term governance role for the country in the Arctic region. Beijing’s strategists concluded that the prestige of being accepted as a global power and the military advantages of a polar route, along with the economic benefits offered by the shorter open Arctic sea route to Europe and the American east coast, outweighed any costs the country might incur. Beijing encouraged its enterprises to participate in the construction of infrastructure along the route, too, as it has in other areas of the world in which it was attempting to gain influence.

By 2006 Beijing had obtained observer status on the Arctic Council, the governing body run by the eight Arctic states, and soon after devised its formal “Polar Silk Road” strategy. The plan called for investing heavily in the infrastructure of the cash-starved Arctic nations. It enabled China to increase its access to Arctic political leaders and sign a series of energy and trade accords. China’s leaders even boldly attempted to buy a defunct US naval base from Greenland.

Advances in excavating technology opened the possibility of mining valuable undersea natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare earth minerals. Melting Arctic ice caps, at the same time, began extending the season for open water along the New Northern Route. This meant commercial viability for exporting more goods to Europe and eastern North America. By 2017 the first non-icebreaker ship traversed the route and a year later the Maersk Line sent one of its container ships through as a test. Western analysts believe the route will become commercially viable by 2040. 

From Beijing’s perspective, the opportunity appeared right around the corner and they acted well before the United States even had a policy in place. Last April was the first time the Department of Defense included a section on the Arctic in its annual report to Congress on China’s military power. Beijing willingly uses multilateral diplomatic channels, its economic resources, and scientific studies to justify its presence, assert its commercial rights, increase its physical presence, and to establish itself as a key player in an environmentally fragile and strategic area of the world far from its shores. 

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Desperately needed investment funds from China helped sway political leaders in Iceland and Greenland to support Beijing’s agenda. Last May Iceland’s foreign minister, the rotational head of the Arctic Council, announced his governing body was “working closely with all partners, inside as well as outside the region….” and that it is of the “utmost importance for prosperity and security in the Arctic region.” China’s influence continues expanding throughout the region although some countries are growing more concerned about its potentially disruptive role in the area. 

Behind closed doors China discussed aiding Greenland in its attempt to become independent from Denmark. Should this relationship strengthen further in the near future it could impede operations at the US base in Thule, Greenland, and pressure that country not to join NATO. If given access to deep-water ports near Thule, China could easily deploy its subs and operate stealthily along the east coast of the United States. China’s Northern Lights Institute in Greenland may already be in use by China tracking Western satellites and NATO airspace. 

China’s pattern of aggressively impeding free navigation of the seas in Asia does not bode well for the future of the Arctic Ocean in an era of great power competition. With a 400% increase in human activity in the Artic environment in recent years, and China’s lack of environmental stewardship, the already fragile area may suffer irreversible damage. 

Since 2014 Beijing has been expanding its military capability to defend its interests in the region. China’s geopolitical ambitions are vast and its policy long-term. As it expands its influence beyond Asia, the eight Arctic nations will be forced to decide how much power they are willing to abrogate to non-Arctic states. Beijing’s 2018 Arctic Policy calls for it to gain a more direct role in governance of the region and urges all Arctic stakeholders to share resources with non-Arctic states and non-state entities. China, if unchecked, could move from a strategy of war by other means to one of limited open conflict over the abundant natural resources in the Arctic and the military and economic benefits gained by controlling the new Transpolar Passage.

Photo: Xi Jingping, China’s leader (Official CPhoto)

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Senators Protest Shrinking Navy

The United States Navy, in many ways America’s first line of defense, is under dramatic and increasing pressure from China’s dramatic leap in naval capability, Russia’s modernized submarine fleet, and Iran’s threats in the Straits of Hormuz.  Adding to the pressure is the increasing alliance and joint naval maneuvers of those three nations.

The military newspaper Stars and Stripes Reports that “American Navy ships such as USS Farragut are often shadowed by Iranian ships and the two nations’ vessels come into contact on a near-daily basis. In July last year, U.S. Marines jammed an Iranian drone Washington said was swooping near USS Boxer…The U.S. Navy also recently confirmed that multiple small Iranian boats sailed alongside the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other ships from a U.S. strike group as they sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman in December. In 2016, ten U.S. sailors were detained by Iran after their small patrol boats drifted into Iranian waters during training. They were held overnight and released.”

Despite the growing threats, funding issues may force the U.S. Navy to reduce its number of ships. Two Maine Senators, Susan Collins (R) and Angus King, (I) are sounding an alarm.  In a letter to Defense Secretary Esper, they wote: “We were deeply concerned to read recent reports that the Department of Defense may propose significant reductions to planned shipbuilding procurement in its fiscal year (FY) 2021 budget request to be submitted to Congress in the coming weeks…We write to express our strong support for a 355-ship Navy and to urge continued support from the Department for a robust shipbuilding budget…we will continue to support a growing fleet in order to protect our national security and ensure our national prosperity as threats around the world continue to grow.… we hope the Department and administration will join us in these efforts…As you continue to develop and finalize the Department’s FY 2021 budget request, we urge you to reverse course from cutbacks to shipbuilding plans that may be under deliberation and to support a 355-ship Navy.”

The U.S. Navy is overstretched. The problem is getting worse as both Russia and China continue to build up their fleets, leading to strains on both ships and personnel.

In 2018,  Admiral Moran  expanded on his worrisome theme:  “The Navy has deployed, on average, about 100 ships around the world each day, collectively steaming thousands of underway days each year, despite having the smallest battle fleet since before World War I, and significantly smaller than the Navy we had immediately after 9/11 over a decade ago. 2 Although warfighting capabilities of ships have dramatically increased in the last century, the size and scope of U.S. responsibilities around the world have also increased.”

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While the U.S. Navy struggles, America’s maritime adversaries grow larger and bolder. According to a study by the Brookings Institute  “Russia is, impressively, both retrofitting older vessels and procuring newer ones. And the [Russian] navy has unveiled a significant capability: Its Caspian Sea corvettes and frigates can fire cruise missiles at targets over 900 miles away. This is a previously unknown capability. To put things in perspective, the two variants of the U.S. Littoral Combat Ship, Freedom and Independence, are substantially larger at roughly 2,900 tons and 3,100 tons respectively—but they do not possess any cruise missile or similar power projection capability.”

The United Kingdom’s Royal United Services Institute, reports the Daily Mail,

“has warned the Kremlin is building up its maritime arsenal. It calls on Nato to prepare for how to deal with Russian hybrid warfare at sea ‘before it is too late.’ Its study notes that “Russia could send new submarines and ships to launch undersea attacks to ‘paralyse’ Europe…”

China’s threat may exceed Russia’s, and the two nations are closely allied, and increasing their coordination through joint training exercises. In its Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016 the Department of Defense notes that “Over the past 15 years, China’s ambitious naval modernization program has produced a more technologically advanced and flexible force. 

Map: Straits of Hormuz (Pixabay)

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America’s New Defense Bill, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of the new National Defense Authorization Act, using information from the Senate Armed Services Committee

CONFRONTING RUSSIA, CHINA, AND OTHER THREATS

The National Defense Strategy (NDS) recognizes that we are in an era of major power competition with Russia and China. As our competitors seek to undermine international order and gain influence, the FY20 NDAA includes measures designed to maintain America’s competitive military edge and support our allies and partners. These include a new reporting requirement for the Secretary of Defense – and additional independent reports – on the implementation of the NDS focused on joint operational concepts to deter and defeat strategic competitors. The Pentagon must also report on strategies to impose political, military, economic, budgetary, and technology costs on Russia and China.

Russia

The FY20 NDAA renews a series of authorities to deter Russian aggression.

The FY20 NDAA:

• Increases funding for the European Defense Initiative (EDI) needs by providing an additional $734.3 million for military construction, anti-submarine warfare, and other urgent priorities to deter Russia and work with U.S. partners and allies;

• Renews and extends the authorization of $300 million of funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, to include lethal defensive items as well as new authorities for coastal defense cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles;

• Prohibits military-to-military cooperation with Russia;

• Prohibits U.S. government recognition of the absorption of Crimea into the Russian Federation;

• Requires an update and expansion of the strategy for countering malign influence activities of Russia, China, and other countries;

• Protects European energy security by imposing sanctions related to Russian energy pipelines Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream; Prohibits the transfer of the F-35 to Turkey and expresses a Sense of Congress that Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 constitutes a significant transaction under the Countering Russian Influence in Europe and Eurasia Act (CAATSA) and the President should implement sanctions under that Act; and

• Authorizes the Department to use up to $30 million for storage of six Turkish F-35 aircraft that were previously being used to train Turkish pilots before Turkey’s suspension and removal from the program.

China

The FY20 NDAA recognizes that China already presents a severe test of U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond and:

• Modifies the annual report on Chinese military and security developments to include developments relating to Chinese overseas investments; the use of China’s Coast Guard for gray zone activity; Chinese military relations with Russia; and China’s expansion of its surveillance state and the overall lack of human rights;

• Updates the strategy to counter the threat of malign influence by including China as a required element in the report;

• Expresses a Sense of Congress that Congress unequivocally supports the people of Hong Kong as they defend their rights and preserve their autonomy against China;

• Supports improving Taiwan’s defense capabilities and force readiness, expands joint training, foreign military sales, and senior level military-to- military engagements; directs the Secretary to conduct a review of Chinese military, economic, information, diplomatic, and digital influences in Taiwan;

• Requires a report on resourcing United States defense requirements for the Indo-Pacific region and directs the Office of Net Assessment to conduct studies on competitive strategies with respect to China;

• Adds Pacific Island countries to the Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Initiative but limits the use of funds until the Secretary of Defense, with the concurrence of the Secretary of State, submits a report regarding how they will use the security cooperation and assistance programs for those countries;

• Directs reports on Chinese military activities in the Arctic, as well as Chinese foreign direct investment in the Arctic; • Prohibits the purchase of Chinese drones; and

• Places certain restrictions on the purchase of rail cars and buses from certain Chinese state-owned enterprises, excluding pre-existing contracts.

North Korea

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The FY20 NDAA:

• Expresses a Sense of Congress that diplomacy, economic sanctions, and credible deterrence are essential to address North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction program and the conventional threat North Korea poses to U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula and to U.S. allies in the region; condemns North Korea’s recent missile launches; and states that the United States, in concert with allies, should continue to deter North Korea through a credible defense and deterrence posture;

• Places mandatory sanctions on North Korean imports and exports of coal and other minerals and textiles, as well as refined petroleum products and crude oil up to certain levels; in addition, it penalizes banks that are already on sanctions lists with additional sanctions if they engage in illicit activity with North Korea; and

• Prohibits the Department of Defense from reducing the number of Armed Forces deployed to South Korea below 28,500 unless the Secretary of Defense certifies that it is in the national security interest of the United States, the reduction will not significantly 13 undermine the security of U.S. allies, and that allies (including South Korea and Japan) have been appropriately consulted.

Allies and Partners

The NDS emphasizes how critical allies and partners are to our own national security. The FY20 NDAA supports America’s allies and partners by requiring new reports related to ally and partner nation contributions, specifically from NATO member and East Asian allies, including South Korea and Japan. The NDAA provides $2.3 billion to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and improves security cooperation programs to build capabilities of allies and partners to contribute to U.S. national security objectives while also dedicating funds to assistance, monitoring, and evaluation of programs, and increasing oversight to prevent human rights violations.

The FY20 NDAA also: The NDS emphasizes how critical allies and partners are to our own national security. The FY20 NDAA supports America’s allies and partners by requiring new reports related to ally and partner nation contributions, specifically from NATO member and East Asian allies, including South Korea and Japan. The NDAA provides $2.3 billion to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and improves security cooperation programs to build capabilities of allies and partners to contribute to U.S. national security objectives while also dedicating funds to assistance, monitoring, and evaluation of programs, and increasing oversight to prevent human rights violations.

PROTECTING AMERICA AGAINST TRANSNATIONAL THREATS

The United States military faces a number of complex threats, including those posed by transnational terrorist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda, and illegal narcotics. An effective national defense strategy must take these challenges into account and leverage the assets of our partners and allies to address them in a comprehensive manner.

Afghanistan

The FY20 NDAA provides $4.5 billion to continue building the Afghan security forces and modifies reporting requirements to enhance oversight of the Department’s South Asia Strategy. The agreement requires the Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretary of Defense, to work to ensure the meaningful participation of Afghan women in the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and authorizes 4,000 Special Immigrant Visas for Afghan wartime partners.

Middle East

The conference agreement continues support for the Iraqi Security Forces, vetted Syrian groups, and other counterterrorism partners while seeking to gradually normalize security assistance to the Government of Iraq. It includes the text of the CAESAR Syria Civilian Protection Act, which applies sanctions to those who lend support to the Assad regime’s military efforts in the Syrian civil war, and grants authorities to the Secretary of State to support entities collecting evidence and pursuing prosecutions against those who have committed war crimes in Syria. In addition, the conference report authorizes families of victims of the 1983 Beirut Marine barracks bombing access to $1.68 billion in Iranian funds. Finally, the conference report prohibits aerial refueling of Saudi-led coalition aircraft participating in the civil war in Yemen, codifying current DOD policy in statue, and requires additional reporting on harm to Yemeni civilians resulting from military action by the Houthis and Saudi-led coalition.

GTMO

The FY20 NDAA prohibits transferring GTMO detainees to the U.S., transferring GTMO detainees to certain other countries, constructing or modifying new detention centers in the United States, or on closing or relinquishing control of GTMO. The NDAA also establishes a Chief Medical Officer to oversee the medical care provided to individuals detained at Guantanamo Bay, reporting directly to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs.

Counternarcotics

The FY20 NDAA provides $945 million for drug interdiction and counter-drug activities. It also requires an assessment of the impact of any planned or proposed border wall construction would have on the volume of illegal narcotics entering the United States. Finally, it adopts the Fentanyl Sanctions Act, which implements a number of economic and financial sanctions to cripple the operations of foreign traffickers of opioids.

Photo: Russian Mobile Missile launchers (Russian Ministry of Defense)

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America’s New Defense Bill

The New York Analysis of Policy and Budget presents an outline of the new National Defense Authorization Act, using information from the Senate Armed Services Committee. Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, has stated: “This action comes nearly three months into the fiscal year, but it is not substantially different from the version passed by the House months ago. National security funding was once again held hostage for other partisan priorities, a recurring habit in Washington, and one that has cost our military billions in lost buying power and readiness over the last decade. While I am pleased that we have averted a full year CR for the military, we cannot ignore the harm we have inflicted on our armed forces to get here.”

According to Senate’s Armed Services Committee, “This year’s NDAA charts a consensus national defense policy that continues the restoration of military readiness, implements a National Defense Strategy to confront Russia, China, and other threats around the world, reforms and modernizes Pentagon business systems and bureaucracy, and – most importantly – cares for our troops and their families…The NDAA Conference Report …supports a base budget of $658.4 billion, an additional $71.5 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations, and $5.3 billion for emergency disaster recovery to restore installations damaged by extreme weather or earthquakes.”

CARING FOR TROOPS THE CIVILIAN WORKFORCE, AND THEIR FAMILIES

 “You recruit a service member but retain a family” is a military maxim reflected in the FY20 NDAA. The Conference report pays particular attention to family support, including providing for a 3.1 percent pay raise (the largest increase in a decade), extending special pay and bonuses for service members, programs to offset the costs of acquiring professional licenses for military spouses, including additional measures to combat sexual assault and harassment in 2 the military while supporting survivors, and historic reforms to the military privatized housing system. The NDAA also includes a three-year phased repeal of the requirement that Survivor Benefit Plan payments be reduced by Dependency and Indemnity Compensation payments.

Military Health Care

The FY17 NDAA included a comprehensive reform of the military health care system to improve medical readiness and patient experience. The FY20 NDAA prohibits the reduction of certain military medical personnel billets until the completion of reviews required under the FY17 NDAA to ensure any reductions or realignments will not negatively impact military health care.

The Conference Report enhances combat casualty care for troops through partnerships with medical expertise outside the Department of Defense. The NDAA extends Tricare Reserve Select to certain Reservists who are currently covered under a federal health benefits plan.

The NDAA requires the Department of Defense to develop a comprehensive policy on providing mental health care to service members as well as a strategy on how to recruit and retain mental health providers.

The Conference Report also authorizes the National Guard to establish a pilot program that would allow National Guard members to receive immediate access to mental health professionals through a smartphone application.

Although the NDAA does not change or repeal the Feres doctrine, it authorizes the Secretary of Defense to allow, settle, and pay an administrative claim against the United States for personal injury or death of a member of the uniformed services that was the result of medical malpractice caused by a Department of Defense health care provider.

CONTINUING TO REBUILD READINESS AND MODERNIZE THE MILITARY

According to the Congressional Research Service, America’s military has started 13 of the past 18 years under a continuing resolution. Since 2010, our troops have had to contend with wasteful and inefficient stopgap funding for 39 months. This, together with successive years of high op-tempo and inadequate budgets, contributed to a fatal readiness crisis in the force. This year, the Military Times found that while total aviation accidents fell for the first time since 2013’s budget cuts, military aviation deaths hit a six-year high in 2018. Senior commanders and DOD leaders repeatedly testified to the Committee that while we have arrested the readiness crisis, we have not yet reached the readiness levels required.

The readiness of our military is built on training, sustainment of weapon systems, and adequate facilities that support troops and their families. The conference agreement includes provisions that will increase the Department of Defense’s capacity to build military readiness and modernize military capabilities. To continue to address military aviation safety, the FY20 NDAA provides a nine-month extension and authorizes an additional $3 million for the National Commission on Military Aviation Safety to complete its assessments and issue recommendations related to military aviation safety. In addition, conferees in both parties intend to continue monitoring border support missions and assessing the impact on military readiness, but deferred final decisions on border security support to the FY20 Appropriations process.

Replenishing the Force

The NDAA supports our military services by providing the necessary authorities and resources to equip, modernize, and manage risk across weapons systems and programs, as well as develop the required force structure to meet future challenges.

The Conference Report:

• Supports the budget request for 73 UH-60M Blackhawks, 48 AH-64 Apaches, 9 MH-47G Chinooks, 6 CH-53K King Stallions, 12 HH-60W Combat Rescue Helicopters, and 6 MQ-1 Gray Eagles;

• Includes an additional $28 million for the CH-47 Block II program and preserves the option for the Army to buy this helicopter in future years;

• Prohibits the retirement of RC-135 and KC-10 aircraft;

• Expands maritime patrol by adding three additional P-8 Poseidon and one E-2D Hawkeye aircraft;

• Increases intertheater airlift by adding four additional C-130 Hercules aircraft;

• Fully supports the Air Force UH-1N utility helicopter replacement program;

• Supports the Army budget request for 131 Armored Multipurpose Vehicles, 152 Stryker Combat Vehicles, and 165 Abrams Tanks; and • Provides for additional funding for Army medium and heavy tactical trucks.

Building A Larger Navy

The NDAA reaffirms that the United States must maintain a minimum of 11 aircraft carriers to protect our interests around the world and authorizes the first year of appropriations for the midlife refueling of USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75).

The NDAA takes other action to build a larger Navy, including:

• Preserving a Navy plan to procure 10 Virginia-class attack submarines, nine of which include the Virginia Payload Module across a FY19-23 multiyear contract, and authorizing an additional $1.5 billion to eliminate a submarine construction deficit in FY20, an additional $200 million for FY21 submarine advance procurement, and an additional $100 million for advanced submarine design;

• Supports full funding for the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine development;

• Authorizes construction of three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and one new frigate;

• Authorizes construction of two additional amphibious ships including an America-class amphibious assault ship and a San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock; and

• Authorizes construction of one large unmanned surface vessel and two medium unmanned surface vessels

The NDAA reforms how aircraft carriers are constructed and paid for. It requires the Navy to insert the Joint Strike Fighter ship alterations on the USS John F. Kennedy (CVN 79) before her first deployment. The NDAA also inserts congressional cost controls over CVN 80 and 81 to ensure cost visibility associated with the anticipated $4 billion two-carrier cost savings.

REFORMING THE PENTAGON TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY, AGILITY, AND ACCOUNTABILITY

Making the Pentagon more efficient, while helping our troops become more agile, is critical to maintaining America’s competitive edge. That’s why, since the FY15 NDAA, Congress has instituted numerous reforms, including an updated military retirement system, an improved health care system, a sustainable commissary benefit, and a major reorganization of Pentagon bureaucracy and business systems and practices. This year, the conferees focused on enforcing reforms already enacted by Congress while creating new pathways for innovators to bring their ideas to DOD.

Accelerating Defense Innovation

The FY20 NDAA aspects of the Accelerating Defense Innovation Act to assist DOD’s efforts to access new sources of innovation. It establishes inclusive pathways for the most promising small businesses to commercialize their innovations for the DOD market. The NDAA increases DOD’s engagement with innovation hubs across the country by establishing a Joint Reserve Detachment at Defense Innovation Unit locations and authorizing $75 million to the Defense Innovation Unit for the creation of a National Security Innovation Capital Fund.

Space Force

The FY20 NDAA recognizes space as a warfighting domain and establishes the U.S. Space Force in Title 10 as the sixth Armed Service of the United States, under the U.S. Air Force. In doing so, the NDAA provides the Secretary of the Air Force with the authority to transfer Air Force personnel to the newly established Space Force. To minimize cost and bureaucracy, the Space Force will require no additional billets and remains with the President’s budget request. The conference agreement creates a Chief of Space Operations (CSO) for the U.S. Space Force who will report directly to the Secretary of the Air Force and become a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. During the first year, the CSO may also serve as the Commander of U.S. Space Command. The CSO will provide updates to the committees of jurisdiction every 60 days, with briefings and reports on implementation and establishment status.

Nuclear Forces:

Nuclear forces have been the cornerstone of our national defense and the conference agreement funds the President’s budget request for Nuclear National Security Administration programs, including nuclear weapons and nuclear non-proliferation activities.

• In addition, the FY20 NDAA supports the U.S. Strategic Command requirement to produce 80 plutonium pits per year by 2030 and doesn’t prohibit the Department from deploying low-yield nuclear weapons. It also clarifies nuclear safety authorities.

Strategic Stability

• With respect to key arms control treaties, the conference agreement requires congressional notification and a 120-day waiting period before the provision of notice of any intent to withdraw from the New START and Open Skies treaties (including requiring consultation with allies prior to withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty);

• The conference agreement prohibits the procurement and deployment of new ground launched INF-range missiles in fiscal year 2020 and requires information on the analysis 15 of alternatives to such new missiles, basing options and foreign countries consulted including NATO; and

• The conference report requires an independent study on the policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, and a report on military-to-military dialogue with foreign countries to reduce the risk of miscalculation, unintended consequences, or accidents that could precipitate a nuclear war.

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Missile Defense

The FY20 NDAA continues bipartisan efforts for a robustly tested layered missile defense system for the U.S. and increases regional capability and capacity to protect the nation’s deployed forces, and our global partners and allies.

The conference agreement:

• Requires an independent assessment on the impacts of U.S. missile defense development on the security of the United States as a whole vis-à-vis adversary responses to deployment.

• Requires increased operationally realistic testing, specifically with regards to countermeasures, of missile defense systems and increased analysis and reporting on the results of those tests.

• Mandates an independent report on the organization and structure of missile defense programs to increase accountability and oversight.

• Increases oversight on the Ground-Based midcourse Defense System to address the cancellation of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle effort, which will improve transparency and avoid similar errors in future programs.

• Supports Israeli missile defense by authorizing the President’s full budget request of $500 million for development and procurement of the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow weapon systems, and requires acquisition milestones be met prior to release of funds.

Emerging Technology

The FY20 NDAA directs policies to ensure that the national security innovation base is poised to meet long-range emerging threats and the rise of global competitors. The Conference report:

• Directs the Department of Defense to develop a cyber science and technologies activities roadmap;

• Supports efforts across DOD and the Services to deliver a hypersonic capability in the mid-2020s;

• Extends the activities of the Joint Hypersonics Transition Office and authorizes the establishment of a new university consortium focused on hypersonic research and development;

• Extends unique hiring authorities to the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center to attract experts in science and engineering and advance the DoD’s artificial intelligence efforts;

• Establishes an interagency working group within the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House to coordinate activities to better protect federally funded research and development from foreign interference; • Creates new reporting requirements for national security academic research;

• Authorizes the creation of a new technology and national security fellowship for undergraduate and graduate students in the areas of science, technology, engineering, and math;

• Authorizes $8 million for the establishment of a Quantum Information Science Innovation Center;

• Commissions a Defense Science Board study on emerging biotechnologies pertinent to national security; • Transfers control of the Strategic Capabilities Office to the Deputy Secretary of Defense and establishes a cross-functional team to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Office;

• Establishes an independent National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine study to review the state of defense research at Historically Black Colleges and Universities and other minority institutions; and

• Extends the completion date of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

NDS-Related Modernization Programs

• Authorizes an additional $1 billion for 12 additional F-35A aircraft to address an identified Air Force unfunded requirement and accelerate delivery of needed 5th generation capability and $440 million for the purchase of additional F-35s originally ordered by Turkey;

• Provides the necessary authority for buying F-35 long lead spare parts in bulk to help achieve better cost savings for the F-35 program and authorizes buy-to-budget authority to capitalize on lower unit cost savings;

• Supports the budget request for 10 F-35B and 20 F-35C 5th generation strike fighters to help address Navy and Marine Corps strike fighter shortfalls;

• Supports the budget request for 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to help address Navy strike fighter shortfalls; • Supports full funding for the B-21 long-range strike aircraft development;

• Supports the budget request for 8 F-15EX aircraft to begin replacing aging aircraft while also enhancing congressional oversight of the program;

• Authorizes an additional $75.6 million to address an identified Army unfunded requirement for Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft program; a critical future vertical lift modernization priority;

• Supports nearly $1 billion for the Air Force Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program ensuring U.S. air superiority for our future; 17 • Authorizes an additional $249.2 million for the Stryker combat vehicle medium caliber weapon system, an identified Army unfunded requirement; and

• Bolsters maritime sealift and mobilization by reauthorizing the Maritime Administration, including authorizing a new cable security fleet program and requiring the Secretary of the Navy to seek to enter into a contract for two used sealift vessels and one new vessel for mobilization purposes.

Cyber

The NDAA strengthens congressional oversight of cyber operations, and enhances the Department of Defense’s cybersecurity strategy and cyber warfare capabilities.

The Conference Report:

• Directs the Secretary of Defense to develop a consistent, comprehensive framework to enhance the cybersecurity of the U.S. defense industrial base;

• Requires development of metrics for the assessment of the readiness of the Cyber Mission Forces;

• Establishes a consortium of universities to advise the Secretary of Defense on cybersecurity matters;

• Establishes Principal Cyber Advisors on military cyber force matters for each military service;

• Allows the secretaries of the military departments to use up to $3 million in Operation and Maintenance funds to develop cyber operations-peculiar capabilities for the rapid creation, testing, fielding, and operation of cyber capabilities;

• Requires the Secretary of Defense to notify the congressional defense committees and describe various operational details of any delegation of authorities from the National Command Authority for military cyberspace operations;

• Directs an annual report on military cyberspace operations;

• Directs a zero-based review of Department of Defense cyber and information technology personnel;

 • Mandates a study on improving cyber career paths in the Navy;

• Refines the role of the Chief Information Officer in improving enterprise-wide cybersecurity;

• Commissions a Defense Science Board study on future cyber warfighting capabilities of Department of Defense;

• Directs the Secretary of Defense to conduct a review of the cyber posture of the United States on a quadrennial basis; and

• Extends the completion date of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission.

Intelligence Authorization

The conference report includes three years of Intelligence Authorization Act (IAA), which authorizes critical intelligence and intelligence-related activities for Fiscal Year 2018, 2019, and 2020 to ensure the Intelligence Community is postured to effectively address the growing array of threats to our national security. Further, the IAA seeks to deter Russian and other foreign influence in our U.S. elections by requiring assessments of foreign intelligence threats to Federal elections and a strategy for countering Russian cyber threats to U.S. elections. The IAA also addresses challenges to the Intelligence Community’s supply chain by requiring an Intelligence Community-led task force to protect against counterintelligence threats from countries such as Russia and China and requires accountability for foreign threats to our infrastructure before entering into foreign intelligence sharing agreements. The bill also focuses on the security of the homeland by requiring relevant intelligence agencies to conduct a strategic intelligence assessment of domestic terrorism threats.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

Photo: The Defense Department has finalized an agreement to purchase 478 additional F-35 Lightning II airplanes in a deal totaling $34 billion (DoD photo)

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Quick Analysis

Space Force Established

2020 will finally see the establishment of the U.S. Space Force, an idea that had been postponed for some time.

On December 20, the President signed the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act and with it, directed the establishment of the U.S. Space Force as the sixth branch of the armed forces.

 “We are at the dawn of a new era for our Nation’s Armed Forces.  The establishment of the U.S. Space Force is an historic event and a strategic imperative for our Nation.  Space has become so important to our way of life, our economy, and our national security that we must be prepared as a Nation to protect it from hostile actions,” said Secretary of Defense, Mark T. Esper.  “Our Military Services have created the world’s best space capabilities.  Now is the time for the U.S. Space Force to lead our Nation in preparing for emerging threats in an evolving space environment.  This new service will help ensure we are postured to deter aggression, defend our national interests and outpace potential adversaries.”

 “Space is critical to our nation’s economic interests, national security, and way of life,” said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley.  “In military operations, space is not just a place from which we support combat operations in other domains, but a warfighting domain in and of itself.  Our adversaries are building and deploying capabilities to threaten us, so we can no longer take space for granted.  The U.S. Space Force is the necessary and essential step our Nation will take to defend our national interests in space today and into the future.”

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“The launch of the U.S. Space Force propels the nation into a new era,” said Secretary of the Air Force, Barbara M. Barrett.  “An agile, lean and technologically-advanced force of talented professionals will now singularly focus on protecting our U.S. national interests and security in space.”

“With the establishment of the Space Force we elevate the organize, train and equip function consistent with the criticality of the space domain,” said Gen. Jay Raymond, Chief of Space Operations and Commander, U.S. Space Command.  “The U.S. Space Force will deliver the capabilities U.S. Space Command needs to control and exploit space for national advantage.”

According to the Air Force Times, and civilians who work at Air Force Space Command will be assigned to the Space Force, but nothing else will change.  “Uniforms, a rank structure, training and education are all to be determined, and for the foreseeable future, Space Force will continue to be manned by airmen, wearing, Air Force uniforms, subject to that service’s fitness program, personnel system and so on.” The relationship between the Air Force and the Space Command will be similar to that of the Marine Corps to the Navy.

In a speech at Hillsdale University, Lieutenant General Steven L. Kwast, the commander of the Air Education and Training Command at the San Antonio-Randolph Base in Texas noted “The power of space will change world power forever.” Kwast’s call for a Space Force was urgent, arguing that “…if China becomes dominant in space they will put roadblocks in place for the countries that come after them. Whoever gets there first will have the ultimate strategic high ground…They are building that infrastructure. They are unapologetic about it, and they plan on declaring victory as the dominant world power in space at the Communist regime’s 100-year anniversary, 2049.”

Aside from the obvious defense implications, keeping space safe from aggressive powers is an urgent national economic imperative.  A study from the Bureau of Economic Analysis notes that In the United States, the FAA estimated the U.S. space industry was valued at approximately $158 billion in 2016. The DOC Bureau of Industry and Security estimated employment for the “U.S. space industrial base” was over 2.6 million workers in 2012. A report by Aerospace Industries and Association estimated that “space systems” within the aerospace and defense industries contributed $39 billion to U.S. economic output in 2018.

Illustration: U.S. Space Command

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAN

The President boldly announced from the White House that as long as he is president Iran “will not get nuclear weapons.” In response to Iran’s aggressive actions against the United States Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on Friday announced a new series of sanctions designed to curb the regime’s destructive behavior. He said there are three pieces to America’s anti-terrorism policy toward Iran. 

First, the US will deny Iran the wealth and resources it needs to conduct global terrorism and warfare. The President, Pompeo added, is issuing an executive order authorizing the imposition of “additional sanctions against any individual owning, operating, trading with, or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy, including construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining,” according to the Secretary.

Second, Pompeo announced 17 specific sanctions against Iran’s largest iron and steel manufacturers, which is expected to cut off billions of dollars of support to the regime and to encourage it to behave more like a normal nation. The final policy change announced was that the United States is taking action against eight senior Iranian officials who advanced the regime’s destabilizing activity and who were involved in this past week’s ballistic missile strike. 

By combining diplomatic and economic efforts the Administration hopes to stop Iran’s terrorist activities and to get the regime in Tehran to agree to “never have nuclear weapons.” The Secretary ended his announcement by pointing out that Washington is concerned about American detained in Iran and it will do what it can to get each of them returned home to their families. After the missile attack Iranian sources said that Iran plans no further actions against the United States at this time. It appears that the regime leadership wants to avoid all-out war with the United States. Intelligence analysts in Washington believe that the recent attacks in Iraq were designed to do little damage. This view is reinforced by the fact that Iran warned Iraqi leaders about the attack three hours prior to it. It can be assumed that Iran knew the government would inform Washington.

VENEZUELA

In a statement released Friday, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo pointed out that Venezuela’s political crisis has led to the flight of more than 4.8 million people.  He called for a “… swift negotiated transition to democracy…” and said it “is the most effective and sustainable route to peace and prosperity in Venezuela. Negotiations could open the path out of the crisis through a transitional government that will organize free and fair elections.”

Later this year Venezuelans will go to the polls to elect a new President and National Assembly members. Pompeo pointed that that the country needs to rebuild its infrastructure and institutions that were “eviscerated by a brutal regime.”

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CHINA

In a statement released by the State Department Spokesperson, Morgan Ortagus, she said that the US is “alarmed that Pastor Wang Yi, leader of the Early Rain Covenant Church in Chengdu, was tried in secret and sentenced to nine years in prison in connection to his peaceful advocacy for religious freedom.”

The United States is calling for his immediate and unconditional release. Pastor Wang Yi, the announcement noted, was originally arrested with “dozens of other congregants on December 9, 2018, during a massive crackdown on Chengdu’s largest unregistered church. He was found guilty during a closed-door trial December 26 on trumped-up charges of “inciting subversion of state power” and “illegal business activities,” with “no defense lawyer present.”

Ortagus said this is yet another example of “Beijing’s intensification of repression of Chinese Christians and members of other religious groups.” The Trump Administration called on Beijing to uphold its international commitments and promises made in its own constitution to promote religious freedom for all individuals, including members of ethnic and religious minorities and those who worship outside of official state-sanctioned institutions. In recent months President Xi has allowed some religious activity in the older, more traditional religions in China. Analysts in Washington surmise this is to tamp down social unrest in a country facing immense domestic challenges going into 2020.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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The Chinese Long-Game

No government poses more of a challenge to the international order–America, especially–than China. Yet coverage of the world’s most populous, and threatening, nation is largely inadequate in the major media. To address that, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government will feature vital articles each Friday on China. They are written by Daria Novak, who had significant experience as a member of the U.S. State Department during some of the most critical periods in that country’s recent history.

China is a land filled with contradictory signals that continue to befuddle American foreign policymakers. In recent decades Washington has courted Beijing as if it is a friend and, at the same time, feared it as a strategic foe. Once a great dynastic power able to conquer immense swaths of Asian territory, by the early 20th century China was a weak and divided country unable grow enough grain to feed its own population. Mao and the leaders that followed him after 1948 promised to return China to its rightful place at the center of the world. 

Over the last few decades the nation-state has grown stronger, bolder, and made enormous strides toward becoming a regional hegemon in East Asia. It can challenge the US Navy on the high seas. This is the China the United States faces today. The broader strategic military question facing Washington is “What are China’s leaders willing to do to turn it into reality and when?”

Less than 40 years ago three out of four Chinese missiles failed to reach their target and half of the PLAAF (People’s Liberation Army Air Force) planes were grounded due to a lack of spare parts or trained pilots. That same September China’s military General Staff Department (GSD) held a month-long meeting to develop a strategy to counter a Soviet attack. Moscow, at that time, was the untrusted one.

Only twenty years ago American intelligence discovered Xianyou, a Chinese short-range missile base 220 miles off the Taiwan coast. It allowed Beijing to target all of the island’s major military installations and also held tunnels large enough to store the missiles and a brigade-size force with over a dozen truck launchers and 97 CSS-7 mobile missiles. 

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By November 2007 China already had deployed between 990 and 1,070 of the CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles near Taiwan, according to the US Department of Defense. And for the first time, last April, the Defense Department’s Report to Congress on China’s military power included a section on China’s Arctic policy, with information about Beijing’s overall presence in the region, its new double-hulled ice breakers, and its possible deployment of nuclear submarines to the area.   

Only two weeks ago, in its 39th space launch of the year, China put its Long March 5 heavy lift rocket carrying a “new era of communications equipment” into space. BeiDou, the country’s satellite navigation system, has now surpassed the number of GPS satellites in space. It may also contain elements of an offensive, space-based weapons system. 

China has invested billions in modernizing its military and has come a long way in a short time. It may only need another 10-15 years to surpass the overall military strength of the United States, according to some intelligence analysts in Washington. Does China’s military buildup and use of advanced technology mean it will use it more often to project power? Some in the US intelligence community say we already are seeing those results in the expansion of China’s reach from the South China Sea to the Arctic Circle some 900 miles distant from its shores. Beijing even created a new name for its northern policy — The Polar Silk Route and a new ID for China – as a “Near Arctic” nation. Washington has ignored China’s reach for too long. Beijing’s policymakers continue working toward the complete strategic transformation of its military from a large standing army to one based on advanced information technologies and integrated joint operations. China is playing the long game to win. No other option is a possibility for the communist leadership. 

Illustration: Chin’a Great Seal (China Official Site)

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