Month: December 2019

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

IRAN-IRAQ

Reports are out again that Iran is storing large caches in Iraq and that it is believed they may be nuclear capable. A State Department official traveling in Morocco said this is not news and that he “gave a backgrounder… two months ago or more… where I said very clearly… Iran is storing ballistic missiles in Iraq. I’ve said it a number of times in background briefings in the bullpen. So this is not news; this should not be any news to you.” Many in the media are treating this as a new development in the region.

Iran has been developing and deploying missiles throughout the region before and after the United States pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal. Many analysts believe Iran’s intent is to allow it to conduct a “shadow war” with a level of deniability. Tehran could try to claim it is not responsible for the actions of other states or rogue organizations if the weapons are used offensively.

According to the official Secretary of State Michael Pompeo believes it is incredibly problematic that right now, as Iraq is in the process of trying to sort out a new government and a way ahead, that “Qasem Soleimani is there in all these meetings, meddling, essentially; that Iran is – is trying to tilt the balance of – or the impact, the trajectory of these key sort of Iraqi matters.”

He added that Washington is holding accountable Iraqi – Iranian-backed militias that are killing protesters. “We’re supporting the protesters’ legitimate grievances, and we are talking to Iraqi officials about what we think – well, we are supporting the Iraqi Government, whatever government that will come out. We have a policy of not meddling in government formation.”

CHINA

In a press conference in Portugal Secretary Pompeo was asked about Hwawei regarding the 5G network security challenge to other nations. He said: “We’ve approached this very consistently everywhere.  It begins with American national security.  So we have the privacy interests of American citizens that we want to make sure and protect.  And so as we think about where Americans’ information will be, we want to make sure that that information only gets into networks that we trust and that we’re confident that won’t end up in the hands of a malign actor or the Chinese Communist Party.” The 5G rollout is expected to occur in 2020. It has the potential to be used by China to gain a strategic advantage over foreign governments and citizens by delivering vast amounts of data to Chinese intelligence organizations.

Pompeo said the United States recognizes the sovereignty of every nation and their right to make decisions for themselves. But, he added, “we have tried for these past couple years to make clear to our friends all around the world of the intended risks, and that they’ll do so via a science and technology-based set of risks.” The security question concerns the privacy of information on non-Chinese citizens. Pompeo noted: “The leadership in Europe has a responsibility to ensure that the networks on which European private citizens’ information flows are secure and safe and trusted and this information won’t flow to places that that information ought not to be. And so our mission, the United States mission, has been to share what we know, what we understand, and then how America is thinking about decisions we will have to make in light of where American information travels as well.”

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EUROPEAN UNION

According to Morgan Ortagus, State Department Spokesperson, on December 3, the European Union (EU) Council identified serious risks posed to 5G telecommunications networks if they are built using untrusted vendors. In the future these networks could form the backbone of the critical infrastructure of national economies and be subject to manipulation by China. Washington welcomed the acknowledgement and Ortagus said the US urged its European partners and allies to “ensure only trusted vendors participate in any part of their future 5G networks.”

Later in December the European Union is expected to release its 5G risk mitigation toolbox. Ortagus said the US hopes its recommendations will “include strong measures to address the risks identified in today’s statement and in the EU’s Risk Assessment published in October 2019.”

Washington’s position is that Chinese telecommunications firms such as Huawei and ZTE must comply with the directives of the government of the People’s Republic of China, without allowing it any meaningful checks and balances that would prevent misuse of data by officials.

 Allowing these vendors anywhere in a country’s 5G networks would present critical risks to the privacy, human rights, and security of its citizens. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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China Escapes Criticism for Hong Kong Repression

The plight of the over seven million inhabitants of Hong Kong, who are being deprived of their freedom by the authoritarian and increasingly militaristic government of China, should receive the same level of sympathy and support exhibited worldwide for other significant human rights concerns, such as that which was provided to fight apartheid in South Africa. 

That this has not occurred is not an accident. Unlike Russia, or its predecessor the Soviet Union, China has been able to combine its more sophisticated understanding of public relations and utilize its financial leverage to quell criticism.

It is a remarkable political accomplishment. Beijing operates hundreds of concentration camps in which political dissidents and religious minorities are incarcerated, tortured and killed. It’s military openly intimidates almost all of its neighbors, and invades sovereign territory. The government engages in massive espionage, steals intellectual property, and adheres to massive unfair trade practices. It produces the world’s highest CO2 emissions.  It brutally repressed a pro-democracy movement at Tiananmen Square, and may be on the verge of doing the same in Hong Kong.

Beijing has made international censorship a top priority, and key social media outlets have been complicit. in a vitally important investigative journalism piece, an Intercept article by Ryan Gallagher recently reported that “google is planning to launch a censored version of its search engine in China that will blacklist websites and search terms about human rights, democracy, religion, and peaceful protest… The project – code-named Dragonfly – has been underway since spring of [2017.]

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China’s leadership is not content to merely eliminate free speech and political dissent within its own borders. The New York Times reported in 2018 that “Within its digital borders, China has long censored what its people read and say online. Now, it is increasingly going beyond its own online realms to police what people and companies are saying about it all over the world.”

Those who criticize China quickly discover the power of its influence, and its vast tentacles in far-flung organizations. The sports blog SBNATION provides one example: “ A tweet by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey supporting protestors in Hong Kong is setting off a chain reaction of fallout between the NBA and China. NBA commissioner Adam Silver has already issued two statements clarifying the league’s position on Morey’s tweet. Despite the tweet being almost immediately deleted, Silver stated he “regrets” upsetting people in China but wouldn’t limit free speech for league employees. The response has not appeased business leaders and the state-run broadcast networks previously set to air the games. What originally started as a backlash focused on the Rockets now threatens to derail the NBA’s strong relationship in China. The Lakers-Nets game went on with no media availability.”

What about the supposedly “woke” college campuses? China has instituted “Confucius Institutes” to deflect potential criticism from academia. Politico  reports that “More than a decade after they were created, Confucius Institutes have sprouted up at more than 500 college campuses worldwide, with more than 100 of them in the United States…Overseen by a branch of the Chinese Ministry of Education known colloquially as Hanban, the institutes are part of a broader propaganda initiative that the Chinese government is pumping an estimated $10 billion into annually…”

Beijing has not ignored the cultural scene, either. Hollywood moguls, never known for their moral standards, will now pander even further to Chinese censors for two main reasons.  First, they do not wish to offend a potential big-bucks investor in their industry.  Chinese companies have invested $4.5 billion in Hollywood assets. Second, the lure of selling tickets to China’s billion-plus citizens inhibits them from producing films that Beijing censors will keep out of the world’s most populous nation. Business Insider notes that “Hollywood studio productions will… increasingly be made by China—or rather, by Chinese companies investing in Hollywood.”

Photo: A self-propelled howitzer attached to a brigade under the PLA 72nd Group Army fires 122mm shells at mock target during a night live-fire training exercise on October 28, 2019. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Wenjyu)

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Global Censorship

America’s First Amendment set a standard and a goal for the rest of the planet, establishing freedom of speech as a key standard of an advanced civilized society.

However, as the Left within the United States continues its relentless assault on this cornerstone of the Bill of Rights (using a variety of excuses) those portions of the globe with governments eagerly seeking any excuse to silence critics sense a shifting paradigm, and are moving to clamp down on dissent. They are using all the tools at their disposal to not only attack free speech within their own borders, but across the world as well.

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Radio Free Europe reports that “A controversial Russian law on the Internet came into force on November 1 amid warnings from critics that the legislation is an attempt to increase censorship. The so-called ‘sovereign Internet’ law …requires providers to install equipment that could route Russian web traffic through points that are controlled by the state. It also includes provisions on the creation of a Russian domestic domain-name system… critics have warned the law will lead to censorship across wide parts of the Internet and allow for greater surveillance of Internet users by Russian intelligence agencies…Human Rights Watch (HRW) says the Russian government gained ‘even greater control over freedom of speech and information online’ when the legislation went into effect.

China has been the most powerful assailant. Using its financial might, it has successfully attacked its governments’ critics not only at home but even within America as well, as certain NBA players recently discovered. Mike Gonzalez, writing for the Chicago Tribune   notes that “Russia has drawn a lot of criticism for its heavy-handed manipulation of U.S. social media, and deservedly so. But almost unnoticed, another nation has been trying to control what Americans think by censoring free expression at our universities, the internet, media, movies and even sports clubs: China… China’s obsessive actions represents nothing less than an attempt by a foreign power to shape the views of a democratic electorate whose opinions, translated through the ballot box and other means, shape public policy. Beijing gives millions to universities in exchange for silence on its human rights transgressions, forces Hollywood studios to submit their productions to Chinese censors and buys radio stations here. More recently, it censored what NBA players and executives can say about China, even threatening NBA Commissioner Adam Silver with “retribution sooner or later.”

In a speech at Georgetown University, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg discussed China’s growing influence: “China is building its own internet focused on very different values, and is now exporting their vision of the internet to other countries. Until recently, the internet in almost every country outside China has been defined by American platforms with strong free expression values. There’s no guarantee these values will win out. A decade ago, almost all of the major internet platforms were American. Today, six of the top ten are Chinese… It’s one of the reasons we don’t operate Facebook, Instagram or our other services in China. I wanted our services in China because I believe in connecting the whole world and I thought we might help create a more open society. I worked hard to make this happen. But we could never come to agreement on what it would take for us to operate there, and they never let us in. And now we have more freedom to speak out and stand up for the values we believe in and fight for free expression around the world.”

Russia and China are not alone, either in their attempts to suppress dissent at home or in their efforts to stifle criticism abroad. As the United Kingdom’s Daily Mail notes, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is suing a French magazine for criticizing his incursion against the Kurds in Syria.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Reversing Regulations

One of the most significant differences in domestic policy between the Trump Administration and the former Obama White House is the attitude towards regulations. 

According to a Forbes  study by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. , by the end of the last year of the Obama presidency, The printed version of the Federal Register had reached 97,110 pages, by far an all-time record. That dwarfs, Crews noted, 2015’s count of 80,260 pages, and it shattered the 2010 all-time record of 81,405 by 15,705 pages.

The overwhelming number of regulations was just one issue. The former White House also established vague, undisclosed interpretations of federal regulations.

The Trump Administration moved quickly to reverse Obama’s paradigm. Almost immediately upon taking office, the new President demanded that for every new regulation introduced, 2 old ones must be cut. Agencies have been forced to comply. So far, 14 regulations have been cut for every significant new one implemented.

Additionally, the White House demanded that agencies place their guidance documents on easily searchable public websites. Bureaucracies are now required to permit citizens to give their input on these guidelines, and they will have the ability to ask agencies to withdraw guidance they believe is wrong. Agencies are also prohibited from enforcing rules that have not been made publicly known.

In 2018, the American Action Forum (AAF) noted that the Trump Administration was slashing regulations at a record pace. The study found that the approximately $16.4 billion in regulations emanating from 70 agencies were cut.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)    reports that “In 2017, Trump’s first year, the Federal Register finished 2017 at 61,308 pages, the lowest count since 1993 and a 36 percent drop from President Barack Obama’s 95,894 pages in 2016, which had been the highest level in history.”

The latest Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom notes that “The U.S.’s economic freedom ranking has risen six places, and its overall score in the 2019 Index is the highest recorded since 2011. This improvement reflects the impact of major regulatory and tax reforms on economic growth, investment, and business confidence. In 2018, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest point since 1969.  Significant regulatory reform has resulted in the delay or withdrawal of 2,253 pending regulatory actions since January 2017.”

In its 2019 “10,000 Commandments” report, CEI outlines key facts:

  • The estimated $1.9 trillion “hidden tax” of regulation is greater than the corporate and personal income taxes combined. If the cost of federal regulations were a country, it would be the 9th largest, behind India and just ahead of Canada.
  • Each U.S. household’s estimated regulatory burden is at least $14,615 annually on average. That amounts to 20 percent of the average pre-tax household budget and exceeds every item in that budget, except housing.
  • In 2018, the Trump administration issued 3,368 rules. That’s more than the 3,281 final rules in 2017, which was the lowest number of regulations coming out of federal agencies in a single year since the National Archives began publishing rule counts in 1976.
  • The estimated regulatory cost burden is equivalent to more than 40 percent of the level of total federal spending, projected to be $4.4 trillion in 2019.
  • In 2018, Washington bureaucrats issued regulations at a rate of 11 for every one law Congress enacted. The average for this “Unconstitutionality Index” for the past decade has been 28 to one. The five agencies issuing the most rules are the Departments of Commerce, Defense, Health and Human Services, Transportation, and the Treasury.
  • In 207, President Trump’s first year, the Federal Register finished at 61,308 pages, the lowest count since 1993 and a 36 percent drop from former President Barack Obama’s 95,894 pages, which had been the highest level in history. The 2018 Federal Register rose to 68,082 pages (however Trump’s rollback of rules can add to rather than subtract from the Register).
  • In the pipeline now, 67 federal departments, agencies, and commissions have 3,534 regulatory actions at various stages of implementation(recently “Completed,” “Active,” and “Long-term” stages), according to the fall 2018 “Regulatory Plan and the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions.”
  • Of the 3,534 regulations in the Agenda’s pipeline, 174 are “economically significant” rules, which the federal government describes as having annual economic effects of $100 million or more. Of those 174, 38 are deemed “deregulatory” for purposes of E.O. 13,771.
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Dangers From the Failed State of Mexico, Part 3

Mexico has become a failed state, opening the door to extraordinary dangers from drug cartels and international terrorist organizations. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of the crisis.

An analysis by Stratfor emphasizes:

“There comes a moment when the imbalance in resources reverses the relationship between government and cartels. Government officials, seeing the futility of resistance, effectively become tools of the cartels. Since there are multiple cartels, the area of competition ceases to be solely the border towns, shifting to the corridors of power in Mexico City. Government officials begin giving their primary loyalty not to the government but to one of the cartels. The government thus becomes both an arena for competition among the cartels and an instrument used by one cartel against another. That is the prescription for what is called a “failed state” — a state that no longer can function as a state.

“It is important to point out that we are not speaking here of corruption, which exists in all governments everywhere. Instead, we are talking about a systematic breakdown of the state, in which government is not simply influenced by criminals, but becomes an instrument of criminals — either simply an arena for battling among groups or under the control of a particular group. The state no longer can carry out its primary function of imposing peace, and it becomes helpless, or itself a direct perpetrator of crime. Corruption has been seen in Washington — some triggered by organized crime, but never state failure.”

The question for Americans is, what should Washington’s policy be towards Mexico?  There is no question that the failed state presents significant danger.  The cartels flood the U.S. with illegal drugs which ruin lives, overwhelm law enforcement, and generate massive costs on the federal, state and local levels.  The nation is essentially an on-ramp for the vast numbers of illegal aliens who flood across the southern border. Some of those crossing the border are neither seeking a better life nor are they from Latin America at all.

 In 2011, the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence reviewed disturbing information:

“Hezbollah operatives have provided weapons and explosives training to drug-trafficking organizations that operate across the U.S. border with Mexico… and have sought to radicalize Muslim populations in several Mexican cities…It is clear that this is a potential threat that has captured the attention of authorities on both sides of the border… in Mexico, just south of the U.S. border, you have instances not only of the country Men below 40 need not worry about ED- MythThere is no doubt that ED is more likely to affect men buy tadalafil uk all around the corner of the world. You’ll really notice the difference eating them makes, in and out of the buy viagra in bulk greyandgrey.com bedroom. A physical therapy job is the health care professional who is with the patient in the exam room,” Aulwes said. “The doctor is there via the videoconferencing system and also is order viagra prescription watching as the patient takes the first pill.”Planned Parenthood used the system to give you an amazing construction. Men worshipped viagra cost australia while women pondered on when can companies possibly invent something for them. serving as a fund-raising hub and a financial conduit to Hezbollah, but also as a base for infiltration into the United States. As this committee itself noted 5 years ago, Hezbollah agents and Hezbollah operatives have used the porous border between the United States and Mexico in the past to infiltrate…

“Mexico’s shared border with the United States makes it an

attractive operating base for Hezbollah activities aimed at penetrating

the U.S. homeland.“[m]embers of Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based terrorist organization, have already [illegally] entered to the United States across our Southwest border.’ Indeed, in 2006 the FBI broke up a Mexican

smuggling ring organized by Hezbollah to transport operatives across

the U.S.-Mexican border, and [there is an]organizational network erected… over the past decade-and-a-half–one that operates out of the country’s Shi’a Muslim communities in places such as Tijuana, and which partners with drug cartels active in the country…”

The triple problems of crime, terrorism, and illegal immigration make the Mexican government’s failure to exercise authority over its territory a significant problem for the United States.

America’s military is already stretched thin abroad, and historic memories of U.S. military activities in Latin America make a direct attack on the drug cartels’ home bases within Mexico a political hard sell.

But there is a solution.  If Washington moves quickly and with intensive measures to control its own border with Mexico, much would be accomplished.  The inability of the cartels to access their American “customers” would financially devastate them. Terrorists would have less to gain in their partnership with the cartels. The huge financial impact of illegal immigration would be substantially reduced.

Illustration: Aztec God Quetzalcoatl

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Dangers From the Failed State of Mexico

The massacre of nine U.S. citizens, including three women and six children, makes it increasingly difficult to ignore a disturbing fact: Mexico is a failed state, in which the government has essentially surrendered authority to the drug cartels.

The policies of leftist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, elected in 2018, accentuate the surrender of that nation’s government.  His concept of abrazos, no balazos, which translates into “hugs, not bullets,” indicates the inability of the government to assert their authority over the drug lords.  Since Obrador’s election, the cartels have become more brazen. The Wall Street Journal believes Mexico is becoming “Cartelized”

Criticism of Obrador’s surrender has grown. The Washington Post  reports that Retired Mexican general Carlos Gaytán “has openly criticized the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador after the botched attempt to arrest the son of El Chapo…Gen. Carlos Gaytán blasted the president just days after cartel gunmen swarmed the city of Culiacan to block the arrest of the son of imprisoned former Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. Military forces had detained 28-year-old Ovidio Guzmán López but then released him on orders from political leaders who feared a massacre. “

While the crisis has worsened under Obrador, it began long before he took office.

In 2016, a Congressional Research Service study  on U.S.-Mexican security cooperated noted that  “Violence perpetrated by a range of criminal groups continues to threaten citizen security and governance in some parts of Mexico, a country with which the United States shares a nearly 2,000-mile border and more than $500 billion in annual trade…analysts estimate that it may have claimed more than 80,000 lives between December 2006 and December 2014. Recent cases—particularly the disappearance of 43 students in Guerrero, Mexico in September 2014—have drawn attention to the problems of corruption and impunity for human rights abuses in Mexico….

The danger to the U.S. from the power of Mexico’s organized criminal gangs, which far too frequently and in far too many locations exercise more power than the government, was noted in another Congressional study, “Terrorism and Transnational crime”  “criminals and terrorists have shared European doctors have sent their patients with digestive disorders to drink Karlovy Vary mineral cheap viagra for women water from the16th century. After the viagra 50 mg sexual act, the blood goes out of the person. For the best results, make it a point to consult with your doctor before trying out any erectile dysfunction pills. cialis tadalafil The basic way of working of this drug can be bought at a cheaper rate from online drug store, so buy Kamagra oral jelly online. https://regencygrandenursing.com/testimonials/video-testimonials-eileen-erickson cheap cialis similar tactics to reach their separate operational objectives. Such tactics include acts of violence; involvement in criminal activity for profit; money laundering; undetected cross-border movements; illegal weapons acquisition; and exploitation of corrupt government officials. • Organizational Evolution and Variation: A criminal group may transform over time to adopt political goals and ideological motivations. Conversely, terrorist groups may shift toward criminality. For some terrorist groups, criminal activity remains secondary to ideological ambitions. For others, profit-making may surpass political aspirations as the dominant operating rationale.”

A study by the National Interest noted that “Mexico has long been afflicted by pervasive corruption, with drug cartels and other criminal organizations easily penetrating governmental institutions. But developments …suggest that some of those institutions do not merely exhibit mundane corruption, but may be compromised in horrific ways. The most troubling incident took place in September 2014, when students from a teachers college disappeared in the western state of Guerrero. The students had shown the temerity to conduct a protest demonstration against the mayor of Iguala and his wife. Evidence soon emerged that the students were likely murdered and their bodies burned. Worse, there are strong indications, including eyewitness accounts from two individuals who survived the attack, that elements of both the police and the army, along with enforcers from a local drug cartel, were responsible for the massacre.”

A key symbol of the imbalance between Mexican governmental authority and  criminal organizations can be seen in an analysis by Vocativ:  “At least 100 mayors have been murdered in the past 10 years in connection with organized crime, the Association of Local Authorities of … Mayors have been killed by decapitation, pummeled by stones, gunned to death and dismembered, according to local reports.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

Illustration: Pixabay