Month: August 2019

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Russian Strategic Intentions, Part 2

The New York Analysis presents Part 2 of our presentation of key excerpts of the “Strategic Multiyear Assessment”(SMA) prepared for the U.S. Military Joint Chiefs of Staff by key defense policy analysts. It examines Russia’s global interests and objectives, as well as the activities—gray or otherwise—that it conducts to achieve them.

WHAT CAPABILITIES DOES THE US NEED TO EFFECTIVELY RESPOND

TO RUSSIAN GRAY ZONE ACTIVITIES?

We cannot advance our understanding of gray zone challenges if we cannot integrate the work that is going on across the various commands and DoD offices. This requires a carefully crafted and widely accepted definition of what is in, and what is out, of the gray zone. Developing early I&W also requires the various groups working this problem to systematically and consistently measure gray activities against a shared operational definition. Finally, doctrine developed to address gray zone challenges will be most effective if it is based on a consistent definition. Before the question of necessary capabilities can be addressed, therefore, a consensus definition of the gray zone, specific enough to guide further work in this area, is required.

Nature of the Gray Zone The gray zone is a conceptual space between peace and war, where activities are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition yet intentionally fall below the level of large-scale direct military conflict.

Gray Zone Strategies A series of actions by a state or non-state actor that challenge or violate international customs, norms, and laws for the purpose of pursuing one or more broadly-defined national security interests without provoking direct military response. Gray zone strategies can occur in three ways relative to international rules and norms. They can: Challenge common understandings, conventions, and international norms while stopping short of clear violations of international law (e.g., much of China’s use of the Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia); Employ violations of both international norms and laws in ways intended to avoid the penalties associated with legal violations (e.g., Russian activities in Crimea); or Consist of states using violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and non-state actors as proxies in an effort to integrate elements of power to advance particular security interests.

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Gray Zone Activity An adversary’s purposeful use of single or multiple elements of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of open warfare. In most cases, once significant, attributable coercive force has been used, the activities are no longer considered to be in the gray zone but have transitioned into the realm of traditional warfare. While gray zone activities may involve non-security domains and elements of national power, they are activities taken by an actor for the purpose of gaining some broadly defined security advantage over another.

Why Is Russia “Going Gray”?

We can not assume that all powerful states are satisfied with the status quo. The use of gray actions and strategies can be taken as a signal that an actor is dissatisfied with an aspect of the international system that those norms reflect and support. Norms and norms violations emerge as central to how we conceptualize the gray zone, and why we seem to find these actions and strategies so resistant to US current deterrent and response strategies. Russia has shown through military actions in Ukraine and Crimea, and wider political influence operations, its willingness to openly flout international rules and norms to achieve its strategic goals. In other instances it has challenged the assumed universality of international norms supporting civil rights and liberties and positioned itself as the champion of rule of law. Such was the case with Russia’s criticism of US support for the Arab Spring and other pro-democracy social movements, and evocation of sovereign legitimacy in its support of the Assed Regime in Syria.

To the extent that existing international norms reflect the interests of the US and Western European states, violations of these norms could signal intent to decrease US influence over the actions of other state and non-state actors. Indeed, Russia seems to be interested in establishing an entirely different set of rules of the game9 . In addition to a willingness to unequivocally violate existing international rules and norms, Russia has attempted to establish alternative international institutions, especially economic, to counter the dominance of existing Western institutions, such as the European Union.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

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Quick Analysis

Russian Strategic Intentions

A “Strategic Multiyear Assessment” (SMA) was prepared for the U.S. Military Joint Chiefs of Staff by key defense policy analysts. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents key excerpts.  It was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict, in direct response to a series of questions posed by the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Twenty-three experts contributed to this white paper and provided wide-ranging assessments of Russia’s global interests and objectives, as well as the activities—gray or otherwise—that it conducts to achieve them.

There is broad consensus among the contributors that Russian President Vladimir Putin is indeed adhering to a global grand strategy, which aims to achieve the following goals:

 • Reclaim and secure Russia’s influence over former Soviet nations

• Regain worldwide recognition as a “great power”

• Portray itself as a reliable actor, a key regional powerbroker, and a successful mediator  in order to gain economic, military, and political influence over nations worldwide and to refine the liberalist rules and norms that currently govern the world order.

According to Dr. Robert Person, these goals are motivated by Russia’s deep-seated geopolitical insecurity. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has struggled to find its place in the global community, which has left the leadership with a lingering desire to regain the influence and power that it once had. In particular, Russia seeks to regain its influence over former Soviet states, which it claims are in its rightful “sphere of influence.”

 As a result, one of the United States’ core goals, namely promoting and protecting the international liberal order, comes into contention with the goals of Russia’s grand strategy. This underpins the Kremlin’s belief that it must contain and constrain US influence and activities in Europe and elsewhere across the globe.

The Russian leadership’s worldview is zero-sum; it believes that in order for Russia to win, the US must lose. However, this world view is not necessarily shared by the Russian population or its elite. As evidenced by the range of “gray zone” activities it engages in, a number of the expert contributors argue that the Russian leadership sees itself as at war with the US and the West as a whole. From a Russian perspective, this war is not total, but rather, it is fundamental—a type of “war” that is at odds with the general US understanding of warfare.

Russia believes that there is no unacceptable or illegitimate form of deterrence, compellence, or escalation management. It also does not believe in the continuum of conflict that the US has constructed. Like Russia’s perception of its competition with the US, its perception of conflict is dichotomous: one is either at war or not at war. To fight and win this war, Russia believes that the successful integration of all instruments of state power, as well as the orchestrated employment of non-military and military means to deter and compel, are paramount. Furthermore, Russian This leads to narrower blood vessels, which affects the easy movement of blood in your Urine In a higher level, you will find that there are many types of herbal male enhancement pills are being introduced http://raindogscine.com/?order=1673 viagra online cheap because every other method available for curing this reproductive health trouble. Generic meds are available under the name of active ingredients and buy cialis no prescription they are as effective as their branded counterparts are. They suffer in silence and follow the point to ‘keep quiet and carry on’. viagra prescription Medicinal help to improve one’s erection issues are now the http://raindogscine.com/?attachment_id=122 brand viagra talk of the town. military concepts include options for employing preemptive force to induce shock and dissuade an adversary from conducting military operations and to compel a de-escalation of hostilities

The authors observe that Russia’s strategies are continuously evolving and expect that the discrepancy between the Russian and the US understanding of “conflict” and “war” will continue to grow, leading to a higher risk of escalation in future situations involving both nations.

Overall, Russia’s influence abroad is growing, and the Kremlin has mastered the use of “hybrid warfare” in driving Russia’s foreign policy.

 Russia utilizes a variety of gray zone tactics around the globe. These include the use of paramilitary forces and other proxies, interference in political processes, economic and energy exploitation (particularly in Africa), espionage, and media and propaganda manipulation. Putin is also adept at blending military and civilian elements for maximum impact.

The specific tactics of hybrid warfare that Russia uses vary by region. In Europe, for example, Russia has utilized propaganda, an increasing dependence on external energy resources, and political manipulation to achieve its primary goals. In contrast, in the Middle East and Africa— important sources of minerals and other natural resources from a Russian perspective1 — Russia has primarily utilized economic exploitation tools. In Central Asia, Russia maintains a much more limited presence, due to China’s geographic proximity and the current levels of economic and security engagement by other regional actors. Nevertheless, Russia does retain influence in the Central Asia, as a result of its historical, linguistic, and cultural connections to the region. Likewise, in Latin America, Russia lacks a sufficient amount of deployable resources to fully implement its strategy or to extend its influence very far. However, as has been observed, Russia makes up for its shortcomings by engaging in episodic and reactive endeavors to disrupt US influence in the region.

Although Russian tactics vary significantly, in all regions of the world energy has been a key source of Russian power and influence. Globally, many countries have developed a strong relationship with Russia when it comes to energy. Russia’s energy priorities extend worldwide, and European nations in particular have become dependent on Russia for access to these resources. Africa and the Arctic have also become significant as Russia looks to exploit opportunities for energy-related commerce.

Despite the strength of Russia’s growing influence abroad and the diverse array of gray zone tactics it uses to achieve its strategic goals, the US can still limit the results of this grand strategy. There is broad consensus among the contributors that countering Russian provocations will require the use of all instruments of national power. In particular, US success will be reliant both on its ability to influence populations, states, and non-state actors, and on its ability to minimize Russia’s influence on these actors. Creating effective narratives in each of the regions covered in this white paper will be critical for achieving this goal. Furthermore, the US can counter specific Russian gray zone activities, such as diversifying energy sources to reduce European nations’ dependence on Russia and counteracting propaganda by creating both resilient democratic institutions and populations abroad, particularly in Europe. Finally, it is imperative that the US establishes a consensus definition of “gray zone” and reevaluates old paradigms defining war and peace, as we enter a “new era of international politics which is defined by shades of gray”. Once defined, a federal agency dedicated to gray zone activities may be required in order to implement a true whole of government approach to combatting Russian influence activities abroad.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

The Latest State Department Press Briefing

Delivered by Morgan Ortagus

I’d like to turn to Secretary Pompeo’s recent trip to Asia, which is a very successful effort that underscored the United States firm commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. This trip allowed the Secretary to personally reinforce America’s support for our allies and partners in the region, as well as our commitment to effective, meaningful multilateralism.

In Bangkok, the Secretary participated in the ASEAN-U.S. Ministerial, the ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial, the East Asia Summit Ministerial, and the Lower Mekong Initiative, which has just celebrated the tenth anniversary. The Secretary held very positive bilateral meetings with a variety of his counterparts, including leaders from Thailand, the Philippines, China, and India. He also participated in a trilateral meeting with foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea as well as a trilateral meeting with Australia and Japan, after which those three nations released a statement expressing serious concerns about negative developments in the South China Sea.

Our diplomacy within ASEAN nations has been consistently guided by our desire for partnership, our respect for sovereignty, and a shared commitment to the rule of law, human rights, and sustainable economic growth – all points the Secretary reiterated in his speech at the Siam Society in Bangkok, which I’d encourage everyone to read.

In Sydney, the Secretary underscored our ironclad commitment to Australia, an unbreakable alliance based on shared democratic values and overlapping strategic interests. Secretary Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Esper led the U.S. delegation to AUSMIN, the Australian-U.S. Ministerial consultations, and discussed shared priorities – our work to achieve our shared vision for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific; the denuclearization of North Korea; freedom of navigation and global shipping and air lanes; the eradication of ISIS and other terrorist groups; and the campaign to counter foreign interference in our elections.

And finally, in Micronesia, Secretary Pompeo was warmly welcomed and became the first secretary of state to visit to the Federated States of Micronesia, where he stressed the importance of our decades-old partnership with the freely associated states and our continued support for the security, economic development, and prosperity of the region. Secretary Pompeo announced the United States’ intent to begin negotiating amendments to certain provisions of the Compacts of Free Association with the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands and our intent to begin the compact review discussions with Palau.

Next I’d like to go – it has been 11 years since Russia’s military invasion of Georgia, when hundreds were killed or injured and over 190,000 civilians were displaced. For many, the impact of the conflict continues. Livelihoods remain destroyed; families remain separated; freedom of movement has not been restored; and property has not been returned. Within the last 24 hours, we received reports that Russian-backed de facto authorities have started the process of borderization at a village near a South Ossetia administrative boundary line. If completed, this action would cut the village off from its irrigation system. These actions are a threat to peace and stability.

As today’s actions show, Russia consistently violates the Georgian people’s right to security and property. Further, Russia’s invasion and occupation of 20 percent of Georgian territory is in stark violation of the UN – of the principles of the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, and the fundamental norms and principles of international law. We urge the Russian Federation to reverse its recognition of the so-called independence of Georgia’s occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions. We call upon the Russian Federation to implement in full the EU-mediated August 2008 ceasefire agreement to withdraw its forces from the occupied territories of Georgia and to affirm and to implement a commitment not to use force against Georgia.

We will not stop working until Russia ends its occupation of sovereign Georgian territory. We support the right of hundreds of thousands of IDPs and refugees to return to their home safely and with dignity. Finally, we stand with the Georgian people and welcome the day we can commemorate the end of Russia’s occupation of their territory.

We welcome the joint statement by the United States and Turkey yesterday on establishing a safe zone in northeast Syria. The military-to-military talks in Ankara made progress towards establishing a sustainable security mechanism that addresses the legitimate concerns of our NATO ally Turkey and the United States. While there are additional details that need to be worked out, we are encouraged by the initial steps that came out of these talks.

A U.S.-Turkey joint operation center will be established in Turkey to continue planning and implementation. We look forward to continuing our work with our partners on this important matter to How do these people get their grimy hands on your email address. effects of cialis Whatever the cause of your erectile dysfunction, the affects are damning for your love life, relationships cialis cheapest and sexual satisfaction. Its quick dissolving formula provides cheap cialis for sale quick result to improve the condition. One letter, received by George Lusk of the White chapel Vigilance Committee, included half of a preserved human kidney, supposedly from viagra tablet for sale one of the victims. achieve peace and security in northeast Syria.

The United States strongly condemns the vicious terror attack outside a hospital in Cairo on August 4th that killed at least 20 people and injured many more. The explosion, which occurred near a hospital, only underscores the callousness of this disgraceful act of terror. We extend our condolences to the families of the victims and wish a speedy recovery to those wounded. The United States stands with Egypt in its struggle against terrorism.

This week, the United States and Poland formally launched the Warsaw Process Working Group. Each group is dedicated to tackling a challenge to peace and security in the Middle East. The working groups build on the historic ministerial hosted in Poland in February. The Warsaw ministerial reinvigorated our efforts to address regional security concerns on built alliances with our partners. It was an opportunity for us to share our assessments of the region and together offer solutions to the ongoing global challenges.

These working groups will enhance cooperation around key areas of concern in the region. That includes cyber security, human rights, energy security, missile proliferation, and maritime and aviation security. The groups will begin meeting this fall, hosted by our partners – the Republic of Korea, Bahrain, Romania, Poland, and also the United States.

Under Secretary for Political Affairs David Hale’s Meeting with Transitional Military Council Chairman Abdel Fattah el-Burhan of Sudan

Under Secretary for Political Affairs David Hale met on August 8 with Sudan’s Transitional Military Council Chairman, General Abdel Fattah el-Burhan.  They discussed the need for swift formation of a civilian-led transitional government in line with the recently-agreed political and constitutional documents, which the United States supports.  The Under Secretary noted that the transitional government has a significant mandate to end internal conflicts, pursue economic reforms, credibly investigate recent acts of violence, prepare a new constitution, and organize free and fair elections.  The interlocutors agreed that success will be critical to advancing the interests of both of our countries.

The United States remains a steadfast partner to the Sudanese people in their pursuit of a civilian-led government that will advance peace, security, and prosperity.

Public Designation of Sudan’s Salah Gosh under Section 7031(c)

On August 14, The United States designated Salah Abdalla Mohamed Mohamed Salih, known as Salah Gosh, the former director general of Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), under Section 7031(c) of the FY 2019 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act (Div. F, P.L. 116-6), due to his involvement in gross violations of human rights. Specifically, the Department has credible information that Salah Gosh was involved in torture during his tenure as head of NISS.

Section 7031(c) provides that, in cases where the Secretary of State has credible information that foreign officials have been involved in significant corruption or a gross violation of human rights, those individuals and their immediate family members are ineligible for entry into the United States.

The law also requires the Secretary of State to publicly or privately designate such officials and their immediate family members. In accordance with the law, I am also publicly designating his spouse, Awatif Ahmed Seed Ahmed Mohamed, as well as his daughter, Shima Salah Abdallah Mohamed.

The designation of Salah Gosh and his family underscores our support for accountability for those involved in gross violations of human rights. We join the Sudanese people in their call for a transitional government that is truly civilian led and differs fundamentally from the Bashir regime, particularly on the protection of human rights. We make this announcement today in support of an effort by the Sudanese people to place the Bashir regime, with its long record of human rights violations and abuses by Gosh and other officials, in the past for good.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

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Prosecuting ISIS

According to a United Nations investigation, world body researchers are “Making significant progress” gathering evidence to prosecute ISIS for atrocities in Iraq and the Levant. U.N. personnel have been gathering documentary, digital, testimonial and forensic evidence for use in prosecuting ISIS members.

ISIS grew dramatically following President Obama’s withdrawal of all U.S. troops in Iraq, which began in June 2009 and was completed by December of 2011.

The United Nations Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (UNITAD), established by Security Council resolution 2379 (2017),  reviewed over 600,000 videos related to ISIL crimes, as well as over 15,000 pages of internal ISIL documents originally obtained from the battlefield by leading investigative journalists, according to Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, Special Adviser and Head of UNITAD.

The Initial investigative work focuses on three areas, including attacks committed against the Yazidi community in the Sinjar district in August 2014, crimes committed in Mosul between 2014 and 2016, and the mass killing of unarmed Iraqi air force cadets from Tikrit Air Academy in June 2014.

Representatives of governments across the planet have weighed in on the issue. The American delegate said stated that Washington will not waver in “holding ISIL accountable for the unspeakable atrocities it committed. Equatorial Guinea’s representative said that the presence of more than 200 mass graves deserves nothing less than justice for the victims and accountability for those responsible. The German speaker, emphasizing that ISIS heinous acts did not stop at Iraq’s borders, urged ongoing action to further explore transnational cooperation as it pursues its investigations, welcoming steps taken by the Especially those with low blood pressure as this medicine is not really try for source order cheap cialis dangerous or it is not the same medicine but works with similar efficiency. While the absence of VIPPS accreditation is one way to find out is your cat suffering, or she is just having a bad day is bringing her favourite things, food and try playing with her, and if that doesn’t work, you pfizer viagra cheap know what you need to do. This can be a result of alcohol or acquisition de viagra right here other drugs Reduced flow of blood from arteries to the penis Nerve or spinal cord damage Low testosterone levels that make arousal difficult. It improves sex life: For a person, who is dissatisfied with sexual performance in the bed, Kamagra Polo makes it possible to achieve erection and, thus, helps to cheapest viagra no prescription improve sex life.Kamagra Polo helps to improve both sexual and personal life: It not only increases the chances to get rid of this sensitive condition. Investigative Team and the Iraqi authorities to facilitate the transfer of evidence.  He also stressed the need for Iraq to incorporate provisions on international crimes into its national criminal law, calling on the Government to strengthen the rule of law in judicial proceedings.

France’s representative, recalling her country’s opposition to the death penalty, said evidence sharing must respect United Nations best practices and international standards.  Her counterpart from Côte d’Ivoire stressed that the differences in interpretation of Council resolution 2379 (2017), regarding the possibility of evidence collected by UNITAD leading to the application of the death penalty, must not affect the work of UNITAD.

Iraq’s delegate commended the work of UNITAD while asking the body to fully respect Iraq’s sovereignty and judicial process.  The evidence collected must be used fairly in proceedings conducted in competent Iraqi courts, he emphasized. 

Khan said that the Investigative Team has sought to ensure that the experiences and voices of survivors, witnesses and communities are placed at the center of its work.  These survivors — Shia, Sunni, Yazidi, Christian, Kaka’i, Shabak and Turkmen — have been impacted by the crimes of ISIL and their message has been clear:  ISIL must be held accountable for its crimes.  He emphasized that the call for accountability is not one of revenge, but of justice. 

 A U.N. statement noted that  “The scale and barbarity of the crimes committed by ISIL have ultimately served not to divide but to unify.  The call for individual ISIL members to be held accountable, and for their crimes to be recognized and prosecuted as offences under international law, has been urgent and clear.  The courage and strength seen across religious groups, regional borders and political divisions in denouncing ISIL crimes, and the willingness of those most impacted to come forward to provide their accounts, has demonstrated the absolute failure of ISIL to sow division among the people of Iraq or to intimidate them into silence.  Second, it is understood that the ultimate success of the work of UNITAD will depend on the Investigative Team’s ability draw on its independent and impartial status in order to harness this unity of purpose, to make its work the product of a collective endeavour …”

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Military Pensions Lacking

This article was exclusively provided to the New York Analysis by Lt. Col. Don Zapsic, (ret.)

The selectively budget-minded, clarion call of the Obama-Era federal government once again found its miserly mark in the revamping of the military retirement system. Reminiscent of the hard-drinking, good-time Charlie who blows much of his paycheck only to return home announcing to wife and children that oatmeal, potatoes and beans are back on the menu at least until next payday. Grounded much in former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel’s strategy of “never letting a good crisis go to waste,” the feds declared that maintaining the present military retirement system was “unsustainable.” Never mind the fact that the federal government has been printing and spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave. Amassing unconscionable national debt while taxing the middle class into financial oblivion. 

Upon establishing a narrative that the military pension system (branded as the “Legacy Plan”) was identified as a threat to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, the “Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Committee” was commissioned in FY 2013 to address the pension “solvency crisis.” And what exactly does constitute a financial crisis at the federal government level? It is not so much about the expense involved as it is about the amount wasted leading up to what is legitimately needed. What is often lost in translation is proper consideration of the added value associated with money spent. A dollar invested in national defense goes infinitely further than money squandered on warehousing and resettling illegal immigrant populations at American taxpayer expense in direct contradiction to the “rule of law.” It is all really just a matter of context. The military pension system only becomes unviable when Department of Defense funds are targeted to defray astronomical costs associated with unfunded social programs and corresponding entitlements.  

The duly-appointed FY 2013 commission presented its final report to President Obama and the Congress of the United States on January 29, 2015. The report contained 15 recommendations including the inception of the Blended Retirement System (BRS); a watered-down version of the traditional pension plan. A “rob Peter-to-pay-Paul” approach funded from a 10% downgrade in retirement pay at 20 years of military service (50% to 40%) and a subsequent reduction in the yearly multiplier (2.5 to 2.0%) used to calculate credited service thereafter. Under BRS, it now takes 25 years of service to attain the same 50% retirement compensation rate afforded by 20 years of service under the Legacy Plan. In all fairness, BRS does provide a Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) and continuation pay (a one-time offering at the 12-year anniversary mark equaling 2.5 times one month of basic pay). A third component of BRS is a retirement annuity paid out on a monthly basis at 40% of basic pay.

The DoD markets the Blended Retirement System as comparative to civilian-based 401K plans. The key consideration to keep in mind is that the federal government is saving 10% on the costs of funding the newly-acquired military pension system. A 10% savings for the government generates a comparable loss for retirees. It is a zero-sum game where there are winners and losers contrary to what the feds would like service members to believe. The DoD There are no tadalafil tablets in india studies showing the safety of the product. Basics of Sperm Count Sperm production is cheap levitra generic an important factor in the life of men. Generally speaking, it can only be an inflammation with viagra fast no sign of infection. Neither will online cialis sale showing sexual aggression towards the opposite sex. automatically contributes 1% of basic pay to a service member’s Thrift Savings Plan account while matching up to an additional 4% of member contributions. Reaching the highest TSP participation level is a tall order for junior enlisted families who often can’t make ends as it is. Consider that in 2013, “$104 million worth of food stamps were used at military commissaries (“Food Stamp Use among Military Arises Again by JenniferLiberto@jenliberto”). If an article from 2013 seems a little outdated, consider that it was the last year that the USDA shared such information with the Department of Defense for undisclosed reasons.

Contrary to how much self-congratulation that the federal government may bestow upon itself for creating the BRS at the expense of those it purports to help, it is just another slap in the face to those who have been fighting our nation’s wars since 2001 in the aftermath of 9/11. Promising a reduced monthly annuity upon retirement; a matching five-percent TSP contribution; and taxable continuation pay at the 12-year mark for another four-year commitment is an insult to anyone astute enough to do the math. While Napoleon had a point when he said, “Men will die for medals,” no one is going to linger in a high-risk environment like the military just to pick up some loose change hoping that they are not horribly burned, blinded, maimed or killed first. 

While it is true that the hollowed-out BRS plan initiated in 2018 is much better than many private-sector retirement plans, “military life is not civilian life.” All things being equal, the traditional military retirement plan should have been upgraded considering how often service members are put in harm’s way. If you doubt me on this, consider that in July of 2019, an Army Green Beret Sergeant Major was killed in Afghanistan by small arms fire. It was his “seventh” deployment there. On another front addressing food shortages among junior enlisted families unable to participate in recently-added Thrift Savings Program, consider that, “the Department of Defense’s Family Subsistence Supplemental Allowance or FSSA- the program designed and funded by the DoD to keep military families from having to use food banks- rejected 96.6% of all applicants (The DoD Should Reform Its Food Assistance Program, Not Eliminate It).” Michelle Villareal Zook, Feb. 05, 2015.   

Our nation’s warriors by-and-large would much rather be heroes to their spouses and children than community celebrities. A service member’s life is about much more than putting boots on the ground in hostile places. It is just as much about putting good shoes that properly fit on their children’s feet. Or for that matter being able to put a little finance behind the romance of cherishing one’s spouse. Then there is the federal government to consider. Both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees need to understand that they cannot continue repackaging old concepts and relabeling them in attempts to fool both the American public and service members at-large. It is great to thank military members for their service and even better to properly pay them for that very service. Just like anyone else, they are trying to earn a living while making better and safer for others who depend upon them.   

Illustration: Pixabay 

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Trump’s Crystal Ball, and the Supreme Court, Part 2

We conclude ret. Judge John Wilson’s exclusive article on President Trump’s move to use armed forces resources for border protection.

The argument used by those seeking their injunction against President Trump’s move to use armed forces resources is that  “… absent an order permanently enjoining the contemplated border barrier construction in the areas designated…its members ‘will suffer irreparable harm to their recreational and aesthetic interests.’ The Court agrees and finds that Plaintiffs have shown that they will suffer irreparable harm to their members’ aesthetic and recreational interests in the identified areas absent injunctive relief…Plaintiffs here provide declarations from their members detailing how Defendants’ proposed use of funds reprogrammed (from the military budget) will harm their ability to recreate in and otherwise enjoy public land along the border.” 

In other words, Judge Gilliam thought it more important that members of the Sierra Club be able to recreate on public land, rather than allow the government to prevent approximately half a million people annually from crossing into the United States from Mexico (this estimate is based upon a total of 396, 579 people being apprehended in 2018 alone, with a peak of 1.64 million in 2000).

As President Trump predicted, on July 3rd, the Ninth Circuit held that the Plaintiffs had a strong chance of success, and refused to lift the stay imposed by Judge Gilliam.  But as the President also predicted, this ruling was reversed by the Supreme Court on July 26th, less than one month later.

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 The point of disagreement between the Ninth Circuit and the Supreme Court lies in the ability of the Plaintiffs to bring their claim.  The Appellate Court had ruled that the “Plaintiffs may bring their challenge through an equitable action to enjoin unconstitutional official conduct, or under the judicial review provisions of the Administrative Procedure Act (“APA”), 5 U.S.C. § 701.”  However, the Supreme Court stated, without explanation, that “the plaintiff’s have no cause of action to review” the actions of the government officials implementing the President’s National Emergency declaration.  

  Showing his hand, Justice Breyer (a Clinton appointee) issued a separate decision, in which he agreed in part that a stay of Judge Gilliam’s order was warranted.  However, he still believed that the government should not be allowed to begin construction on the border wall – instead, he believed that the funds for construction should be frozen while the appeal proceeded through the Ninth Circuit.  

 Regardless of Justice Breyer’s dissent in part, the effect of the Supreme Court’s decision is to allow the Trump administration to appropriate funds originally earmarked for use by the Defense Department, to the use of the Department of Homeland Security, for the construction of the border wall.

 The litigation in the California District Court, and the appeal in the Ninth Circuit will continue.  But the heart of the matter was an effort to prevent the Trump administration from using funds commandeered from the military budget for the building of the border security fence along the Southern Border.  By reversing the stay issued by the lower courts, the Supreme Court has authorized the government to go forward with construction of the wall.  Even the New York Times had to admit that this ruling was a victory for President Trump. 

  While the ACLU tried to claim that this was no “big victory” for the President, the amount now available for construction as a result of the ruling of the Supreme Court is estimated at 2.5 billion dollars, a significant portion of the total 6.7 billion the Trump Administration intends to divert in its effort to build that wall.     

Of particular significance is the President’s ability to read the path his National Security proclamation would take.  Donald Trump knew that his opponents would seek the intervention of a court friendly to their views; he also knew that in the end, the US Supreme Court would support his actions.  In the final analysis, the President’s enemies continue to underestimate his abilities, to their detriment.  

Photo: Border Patrol rescuing migrant (U.S. Border Patrol photo)

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Trump’s Crystal Ball, and the Supreme Court

This article was prepared exclusively for the New York Analysis of Policy & Government by ret. Judge John Wilson.

On February 15 of this year, President Trump held a press conference, during which he stated his intention to declare a National Emergency along the Southern Border of the United States.  His actions were made necessary by the failure of Congress to authorize sufficient funding for the construction of a barrier between Mexico and the United States.  Later that same day, drawing upon his power to declare a National Emergency, the President issued a proclamation, The opening section of stating that:

“The current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency.  The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.  The problem of large-scale unlawful migration through the southern border is long-standing, and despite the executive branch’s exercise of existing statutory authorities, the situation has worsened in certain respects in recent years.  In particular, recent years have seen sharp increases in the number of family units entering and seeking entry to the United States and an inability to provide detention space for many of these aliens while their removal proceedings are pending.  If not detained, such aliens are often released into the country and are often difficult to remove from the United States because they fail to appear for hearings, do not comply with orders of removal, or are otherwise difficult to locate.  In response to the directive in my April 4, 2018, memorandum and subsequent requests for support by the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense has provided support and resources to the Department of Homeland Security at the southern border.  Because of the gravity of the current emergency situation, it is necessary for the Armed Forces to provide additional support to address the crisis.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, So, the medicine of http://www.learningworksca.org/about/ viagra ordination same power will perform as the same way. It learningworksca.org buy levitra helps in curing sexual weakness and increases the stamina stabilizing hormones. It improves muscle mass, viagra cost in india http://www.learningworksca.org/resources/in-the-news/ energy, libido, sperm count and motility and helps to gain harder erection for pleasurable lovemaking. Bear with us also if we seem to feel pharmacy cialis that we have imperfect kids…..and perfect grandchildren. including sections 201 and 301 of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), hereby declare that a national emergency exists at the southern border of the United States, and that section 12302 of title 10, United States Code, is invoked and made available, according to its terms, to the Secretaries of the military departments concerned, subject to the direction of the Secretary of Defense in the case of the Secretaries of the Army, Navy, and Air Force.  To provide additional authority to the Department of Defense to support the Federal Government’s response to the emergency at the southern border, I hereby declare that this emergency requires use of the Armed Forces and, in accordance with section 301 of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1631), that the construction authority provided in section 2808 of title 10, United States Code, is invoked and made available, according to its terms, to the Secretary of Defense and, at the discretion of the Secretary of Defense, to the Secretaries of the military departments.” 

During his remarks, the President made a prediction:  “we will have a national emergency, and we will then be sued, and they will sue us in the Ninth Circuit, even though it shouldn’t be there, and we will possibly get a bad ruling and then we will get another bad ruling, and then we will end up in the Supreme Court, and hopefully we will get a fair shake and win in the Supreme Court.” 

  In large part, the President’s prediction has come true.

Shortly after the President issued his proclamation, the Sierra Club and a group called the Southern Border Communities Coalition, represented by the ACLU, brought suit in California to halt the use of money drawn from the military’s budget to fund construction of the border wall.  At the end of June, Judge Haywood Gilliam of the Northern District of California granted an injunction, ruling that the Plaintiffs were likely to succeed on several grounds, including the fact that Congress had denied the requested funds, and there were no “unforeseen military requirements” that would justify the use of funds from the military budget to construct the wall. 

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

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Bureaucracy vs. Economy, elected Government

There may be no area where President Trump’s battle against what some refer to as “The Swamp,” Washington’s administrative agencies, is more pronounced than in his effort to reduce the overwhelming amount of regulations imposed not by the elected government, but by an unresponsive, permanent class of bureaucrats.

The current White House initiated a policy of abolishing two regulations for every new one implemented, as mandated by Executive order 13771.

Estimates are that regulations cost the U.S. economy almost $2 trillion.  But the harm done even by that extraordinary figure is surpassed by the damage done to the American soul.  The concept of government being open, transparent and accountable, the very basis of the nation, has been eclipsed.  In terms of impact on the daily lives of the citizenry, Congress, the White House and the Supreme Court combined all play second fiddle to the bureaucracy.

In 2018, the American Action Forum (AAF)   outlined how the Trump Administration was slashing regulations at a record pace. The study found that the approximately $16.4 billion in regulations emanating from 70 agencies were cut. Despite that, only the surface of the problem has been scratched.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)   notes that “…the cost of government extends even beyond what Washington collects in taxes and the far greater amount it spends. Federal environmental, safety and health, and economic regulations and interventions affect the economy by hundreds of billions—even trillions—of dollars annually. Regulatory burdens can operate as a hidden tax. Unlike on-budget spending, regulatory costs are largely obscured from public view. They are the least disciplined aspects of government activity, which can make regulation overly appealing to lawmakers. Budgetary pressures can incentivize lawmakers to impose off-budget regulations on the private sector rather than add to unpopular deficit spending…”

In its 2019 “10,000 Commandments”  report, CEI’s Wayne Crews  presents these key facts:

  • The estimated $1.9 trillion “hidden tax” of regulation is greater than the corporate and personal income taxes combined. If the cost of federal regulations were a country, it would be the 9th largest, behind India and just ahead of Canada.
  • Each U.S. household’s estimated regulatory burden is at least $14,615 annually on average. That amounts to 20 percent of the average pre-tax household budget and exceeds every item in that budget, except housing.
  • In 2018, the Trump administration issued 3,368 rules. That’s more than the 3,281 final rules in 2017, which was the lowest number of regulations coming out of federal agencies in a single year since the National Archives began publishing rule counts in 1976.
  • The estimated regulatory cost burden is equivalent to more than 40 percent of the level of total federal spending, projected to be $4.4 trillion in 2019.
  • In 2018, Washington bureaucrats issued regulations at a rate of 11 for every one law Congress enacted. The average for this “Unconstitutionality Index” for the past decade has been 28 to one. The five agencies issuing the most rules are the Departments of Commerce, Defense, Health and Human Services, Transportation, and the Treasury.
  • In 207, President Trump’s first year, the Federal Register finished at 61,308 pages, the lowest count since 1993 and a 36 percent drop from former President Barack Obama’s 95,894 pages, which had been the highest level in history. The 2018 Federal Register rose to 68,082 pages (however Trump’s rollback of rules can add to rather than subtract from the Register).
  • In the pipeline now, 67 federal departments, agencies, and commissions have 3,534 regulatory actions at various stages of implementation(recently “Completed,” “Active,” and “Long-term” stages), according to the fall 2018 “Regulatory Plan and the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions.”
  • Of the 3,534 regulations in the Agenda’s pipeline, 174 are “economically significant” rules, which the federal government describes as having annual economic effects of $100 million or more. Of those 174, 38 are deemed “deregulatory” for purposes of E.O. 13,771.
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CEI reported that “In 2017, Trump’s first year, the Federal Register finished 2017 at 61,308 pages, the lowest count since 1993 and a 36 percent drop from President Barack Obama’s 95,894 pages in 2016, which had been the highest level in history.”

The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) notes that there continue to be roadblocks to this effort, citing a recent U.S. Supreme Court case as an example. “In Kisor v. Wilkie, the Supreme Court squanders a prime opportunity to take back its job to interpret the law by upholding the Auer deference while also recognizing some of the concerns excessive deference presents. Auer holds that federal courts must yield to an agency’s interpretation of ambiguous regulations produced by that agency when all other tools of interpretation have been exhausted.”

Wayne Crews will appear on this week’s Vernuccio-Novak Report

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

IRAN

According to the State Department, the Trump administration has implemented an unprecedented pressure campaign on Iran’s leaders.  with two objectives: First, to deprive the Iranian regime of the money it needs to support its destabilizing activities. The two-pronged approach first attempts to force the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the negotiating table to conclude a comprehensive and enduring deal.

“The comprehensive deal we seek with the Iranian regime should address four key areas: its nuclear program, its ballistic missile development and proliferation, its support for terrorist groups and proxies, and its treatment and illegal detention of U.S. citizens, stated Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.”

Prior to the reimposition of sanctions and accelerated our pressure campaign, Iran was increasing its malign activity, even under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The Secretary pointed out that these actions included expansive missile testing and proliferation, continuing to unjustly detain American citizens, and deepening its involvement in regional conflicts.

In recent years Iran has provided funding, weapons and training to the Houthis in Yemen, prolonging the conflict and their suffering. In Syria, Iran continues to support a regime that has killed hundreds of thousands, has displaced millions of its own citizens, and spreads violence throughout the country. In Lebanon, Iran uses Hezbollah as a proxy in its battle against the state of Israel.

U.S. pressure is beginning to reverse these trends according to the Trump Administration. The regime and its proxies are weaker and recently Iranian-backed militias have stated that Iran no longer has enough money to pay them as much as in the past and has enacted austerity plans. Non-military sanctions and other actions often take a longer time to impact a country than military warfare. They raise the cost of expansionism for Iran while reducing US casualties from a potential military conflict. The picture is improving as in 2019 Iran cuts its defense budget by 28% and, specifically, cut 17% from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

VENEZUELA

On August 5, President Trump signed an Executive Order blocking all property and interests in property of the Government of Venezuela that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within possession or control of any United States person. 

This Executive Order, reported the State Department, is designed to directly target the former Maduro regime and those who support it, while exempting transactions related to humanitarian activity, including the provision of articles such as food, clothing, and medicine intended to be used to relieve human suffering. OFAC has concurrently issued a general license authorizing transactions with Interim President Juan Guaido, the National Assembly, and individuals appointed or designated by Guaido.

It is not an embargo, but remains a significant action is in response to the continuing usurpation of power by Maduro and persons affiliated with him from the legitimate interim government of Interim President Guaido, as well as human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention of Venezuelan citizens, interference with freedom of expression, including for members of the media, and ongoing attempts to undermine Interim President Guaido and the democratically elected National Assembly’s exercise of legitimate authority in Venezuela.

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Maduro’s repression of Venezuelans, in combination with the corruption and mismanagement by his illegitimate government, has dramatically negatively impacted the quality of life for average citizens who lack access to food, water, medicine and electricity, causing one of the worst man-made humanitarian disasters in the modern world. 

AUSTRALIA

Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo along with the US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper met in Sydney Australia this past week to set a path forward for the Australia–U.S. alliance.

The two governments agreed to support a Trilateral Infrastructure Partnership mission to Southeast Asia later this year to help further build effective institutions and coordinated development in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the State Department, the two governments are working together to secure a reliable and affordable source of energy for the area, promote freedom of navigation and overflight, and other lawful uses of the sea.

It is expected to include a sustainable development program for the Mekong Delta to help improve water governance, reduce transnational crime, and strengthen ASEAN centrality.

During meetings in Sydney officials of both governments reaffirmed the need for North Korea to abandon its weapons of mass destruction and missile programs and emphasized a need for the international community to maintain pressure on the Kim regime. Secretary Pompeo also discussed how to support freedom of navigation in the vital sea lanes of the Middle East and prevent a resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and prevent it from spreading to its affiliates in the Indo-Pacific.   

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Don’t Tread on…American History

Actor Christopher Pratt is the latest target of the “Everything about America is bad” crowd. He was spotted wearing a T shirt with a picture of the famous Gadsen Flag, bearing the Revolutionary War motto, “Don’t Tread on Me.” It was a symbol of resolve against the tyranny of a distant monarch who sought to eliminate the freedoms of a people who had become used to self-government. For that offense against the Left’s maniacal “political correctness,” he was soundly criticized. 

There are several culprits in the movement to cast absolutely everything about the U.S. as terrible, and to wholly hide the reality that the nation’s origins were the greatest advance in human rights in mankind’s history. (Yes, there were imperfections, but they were eventually corrected.)

Let’s start with the pro-socialism crowd.  Despite that philosophy being responsible for approximately one hundred million murders throughout its comparatively short history and the oppression and impoverishment of even more, its current advocates continue to seek to implement it in the United States. Socialism is the mirror opposite of America’s bedrock principles of individual rights and a capitalist economic system. There is no logical excuse to continue the bitter failure of socialism, and so its proponents seek to avoid that reality by tearing down the most successful economic/political system ever devised.

Consider next the Democratic Party’s ultra-partisans, who, until the current Administration is out of office, will condemn any instance of pride in America’s history as being an endorsement of the present White House.  They are willing to castigate any and everything about the nation to create a false sense of desperation that they allege can only be resolved by electing one of their number. They place their political goals far above the good of the nation.

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There is an additional strategy for those folks.  The voters do not demonstrate much enthusiasm for hard-left policies, so they seek to alter the population.  That is why, despite the expense, public safety, health and other problems that arise from illegal immigration, they fervently push for open borders.  Their philosophy: If the current crop of voters don’t agree with them, bring in a different set of people to tip the scales.  It would only take a relatively small number of illegal voters in a number of states to tip the scales of the electoral college.  That goal is behind all the schemes to avoid implementing a picture ID requirement, and to give illegals drivers’ licenses that they can use to register.

The final group is the most disturbing of all. There is little that is as dangerous to the political health of a free people as ignorance, particularly of their own past. The university and educational dons, who are overwhelmingly hard-left, know that contrasting the success and human rights of American history with the tyranny and economic disaster of Socialism will not serve their political beliefs well, have done all they can to avoid and miscast the nation’s past. Foreign influences are also at play. The Chinese government has actively attempted to push its propaganda through “Confucius Institutes” at universities across the nation.  The Clarion Project reports that Qatar is doing something similar, providing $1.4 billion to universities, and $30 million to public schools.

As the Qatar example demonstrates, this intellectual malpractice is not just at the college level.  Far too many state educational systems at the grammar and high school levels now virtually ignore teaching U.S. history, or provide a biased version of it. 

There are few things that can weaken or even destroy a nation more readily and thoroughly than a concerted attack on its fundamental principles, its culture, and its history.  That is precisely the crisis that America currently faces.

Illustration: Google Images