NATO turned 70 this year, and, after successfully preventing Soviet aggression and playing a key role in the eventual liberation of Eastern Europe, now faces renewed threats from Chinese and Russian aggression, as well as from terrorism. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents this summary of the Alliance’s latest annual report.
The Alliance is adapting and responding to the most complex
and unpredictable security environment since the end of the Cold War – with a
series of challenges and threats from state and non-state actors, including
terrorist, cyber and hybrid attacks.
In the face of this new and challenging environment, all
Allies have stepped up, further strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defence
posture on land, at sea, in the air and in cyberspace.
Key to NATO’s deterrence and defence on land has been the deployment
of forces in the eastern part of the Alliance, through NATO’s forward presence
– along with a greater focus on the Alliance’s southern flank, and a stronger
presence in the Black Sea region.
Allies have continued to reinforce the Alliance’s maritime
posture and improve maritime situational awareness. A robust programme of
military exercises is helping Allies to bolster their ability to fight at sea –
including when it comes to anti-submarine warfare and the protection of sea
lines of communications. NATO is also working to ensure its ability to
reinforce Allied territory by sea, including from across the Atlantic Ocean.
Allies have agreed a new Joint Air Power Strategy, which
supports NATO’s peacetime Air Policing and Ballistic Missile Defence missions.
This will strengthen NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence and improve
Allies’ ability to operate together, faster and more effectively. Recognising
that space is essential to deterrence and defence, in 2018, Allies also agreed
to develop an overarching NATO Space Policy.
As NATO continues to adapt to evolving cyber threats, it
needs to be able to operate as effectively in cyberspace as in the air, on land
and at sea. In 2018, Allies agreed to continue investing in robust cyber
defences, including by establishing a new Cyberspace Operations Centre in Mons,
Belgium to coordinate NATO operations, planning and exercises.
In 2018, the Alliance further improved its responsiveness –
both political and military. Particular efforts have been made to boost the
readiness of Allied forces by ensuring troops and capabilities are
appropriately trained, deployable and able to work closely together. An
important tool for enhancing readiness has been more regular exercises, most
notably the collective defence exercise Trident Juncture 18, NATO’s biggest
exercise since the end of the Cold War.
At the Brussels Summit in July, Allied leaders took more
than a hundred decisions to strengthen the Alliance. They welcomed the
considerable progress made since 2014 to enhance the Alliance’s ability to
respond to any threat, be it conventional or nonconventional. Allied leaders
also recognised that a more uncertain security environment requires that all
Allies continue to invest more in defence, develop the right military capabilities
and make the necessary contributions to NATO’s military operations and
missions.
A Stronger, Quicker Alliance
According to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO is
responsible for protecting and defending Allies’ territory and populations against
armed attack. Credible deterrence and defence is essential to preventing
conflict. NATO’s approach to deterrence and defence is based on a mix of
nuclear, conventional and missile defence capabilities; it is defensive,
proportionate and fully in compliance with international law.
NATO has a responsibility to respond to changes to the
security environment. This is why, over the past years, the Alliance has
continued to adapt its posture. Indeed, since 2014, NATO has undertaken the
largest reinforcement of its collective defence in a generation, including by
increasing its presence in the northeast and southeast of the Alliance.
NATO’s Forward Presence in the eastern part of the Alliance
has four multinational, combatready battlegroups deployed in Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania and Poland. These four battlegroups are led by the United Kingdom,
Canada, Germany and the United States, respectively. They comprise more than
4,500 troops from across the Alliance, and are able to operate alongside
national home defence forces. The new Multinational Division North-East
Headquarters in Elbląg, Poland is now fully operational, able to provide
divisional-level command and control in case of a crisis.
NATO’s deployments in the Baltic countries and Poland are
defensive and measured. They are a clear demonstration that the Alliance stands
united in the face of any possible aggression. At the same time, NATO has also
been developing a forward presence in the Black Sea region. A multinational
framework brigade for training Allies’ land forces is in place in Romania; and
new measures at sea and in the air have led to a substantial increase in NATO’s
activities in the region. These have included increased presence of the NATO
Standing Naval Forces in the Black Sea and additional cooperation on air
training and air policing. The NATO Standing Naval Forces train and exercise in
the Black Sea to build interoperability and warfighting skills, including with
the navies of NATO’s Black Sea Allies – Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey – and partner
countries. In 2018, NATO ships spent 120 days in the Black Sea, up from around
80 days in 2017. NATO’s forward presence is underpinned by a robust
rapid-reinforcement strategy to ensure that, in a collective defence scenario,
it would be backed by a 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, which includes the
brigade-sized Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, led in 2018 by Italy. A
combined Dutch, German and Norwegian-led Very High Readiness Joint Task Force
was certified in 2018 – and will be on standby for deployment, if needed,
throughout 2019. In 2018, Allies took further decisions to strengthen the
Alliance’s ability to have forces ready and available in potential collective
defence scenarios. A key step in this direction was the launch, at the Brussels
Summit, of the new NATO Readiness Initiative, also known as the ‘Four Thirties’
This initiative will
ensure that more high-quality, combat-capable, high-readiness national forces
can be made available to NATO, if needed. Allies will together provide an
additional 30 combat naval vessels, 30 heavy or medium battalions and 30 air
squadrons, as well as the necessary logistical support, at 30 days’ readiness
or less. This is not about new forces, but about increasing the readiness of
existing national forces. These forces will be organised and trained as
elements of larger combat formations in support of NATO’s overall deterrence
and defence posture. They will contribute to the Alliance’s ability to
reinforce any Ally. The NATO Readiness Initiative will significantly improve
the Alliance’s ability to respond rapidly, be it for crisis intervention or
highintensity warfighting.
NATO’s efforts have also focused on responding to security
challenges along its southern borders, including instability and ongoing crises
in the Middle East and North Africa region. NATO maintains a range of assurance
measures in place across the Alliance. These exist to deter any potential
adversary, and therefore to reassure Allies. The Alliance continues to
implement a series of tailored assurance measures for Turkey, including
strengthening Turkish air defence with the deployment of missile batteries and
air policing. In 2018, the Alliance continued to contribute to the Global
Coalition to Defeat ISIS, to support its partners’ counter-terrorism efforts
through training and capacity-building, and to be present in the Aegean and
Mediterranean Seas to contribute to countering terrorism and illegal
trafficking. Experience has shown that building local capacity is one of the
best tools in the fight against terrorism. For that reason, the Alliance
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also agreed to launch a new training mission in Iraq, designed to help further
professionalise the Iraqi armed forces. At the Brussels Summit, Allied leaders
declared the new Hub for the South at Joint Force Command Naples fully
operational. The ‘Hub’ is currently staffed by around 70 military and civilian
personnel from more than 20 Allied countries. It is tasked with improving the
Alliance’s awareness and understanding of challenges from its southern
neighbourhood, and boosting cooperation with partners in the region.
A More Resilient NATO Resilience is the ability to resist
and recover from a major shock – whether a natural disaster or an armed attack;
conventional or hybrid. Resilience and civil preparedness in Allied nations are
essential to NATO’s collective security and defence. Resilience represents a
first line of defence. Today’s armed forces rely heavily on civilian
infrastructure and capabilities, including for the supply of food and water,
communications and transport. That means that the resilience of a country’s
civilian infrastructure is just as important as that of its military
infrastructure. Around 90% of military transport for large operations relies on
civilian railways and aircraft. Three-quarters of host-nation support for NATO
operations is provided by commercial infrastructure and services – including
essentials such as food, water and fuel. At the same time, cyber attacks can
paralyse civilian infrastructure and seriously impede NATO forces. For these
reasons, civil preparedness is essential to NATO’s deterrence and defence. NATO
Allies are committed to achieving a series of Baseline Requirements for
National Resilience. These focus on ensuring continuity of government and
essential services to the public, guaranteeing protection of critical
infrastructure and supporting military operations with civilian means
In 2018, Allies made significant progress in implementing
this commitment. In February, NATO completed an Alliance-wide assessment of
national resilience, helping to generate an overview of the state of civil
preparedness. The 2018 Report on the State of Civil Preparedness, endorsed by
NATO’s Defence Ministers, has helped to raise awareness of the importance of
building resilience. The Report identified areas where further effort is
required to enhance resilience and ensure the ability to deal with threats such
as terrorism and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear incidents. In
2018, NATO also developed planning guidance to help national authorities to
deal with large population movements and mass-casualties events; improve
resilience in national and cross-border energy networks and transport
infrastructure; develop priority access arrangements for civil
telecommunications; and mitigate identified risks and vulnerabilities in the
food and water sectors. Civil preparedness elements were also included in a
number of NATO military exercises, including Trident Juncture 18. NATO
continues to support its partners’ efforts to enhance their own resilience and
civil preparedness. Initiatives include a three-year joint project with the
United Nations to enhance chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear civil
preparedness in Jordan. In 2018, the Alliance also provided related support and
advice to Georgia and the Republic of Moldova.
Taking Stock of 2018
2018 was a year of far-reaching reforms for NATO.
First, Allies took important decisions to adapt and
strengthen the NATO Command Structure, the military backbone of the Alliance.
The new Command Structure will help the Alliance’s Strategic Commanders to
prepare for any threat to the Alliance. At the Summit in July, NATO leaders
agreed to a major update of the Command Structure, with more than 1,200
additional personnel and two new Joint Force Commands: one in Norfolk, the
United States, to focus on protecting transatlantic sea lines of communication;
and one in Ulm, Germany, to support the rapid movement of troops and equipment
into, across and out of Europe. The two new Commands will become operational in
2019.
In August, a
Cyberspace Operations Centre was also established at the Supreme Headquarters
Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Belgium. The new Centre will coordinate NATO
operations in cyberspace, provide cyberspace situational awareness, assess
risks, and support decisionmaking, planning and exercises. In 2018, Allies also
endorsed a series of measures to modernise NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The
reforms, agreed in 2018 at the end of an internal functional review process,
place speed, innovation and resilience at the centre of the way NATO works, and
will ensure the Headquarters continues to adapt to meet the challenges of the
current security environment.
In addition, at the Brussels Summit, Allied leaders agreed
wide-ranging improvements to the way military capabilities are delivered
through NATO common funding. The changes – which have been designed to reflect
international best practice – will reduce unnecessary bureaucracy and
complexity, and better align the work done by Allies, NATO Agencies and NATO’s
Strategic Commands. Effective implementation of the changes will improve the
Alliance’s agility and responsiveness by delivering required capabilities
within expected timelines and agreed cost. This will help to sustain NATO
common funding, a pillar of Alliance solidarity, for years to come.
Developing the Capabilities the Alliance Needs
The 2014 Defence Investment Pledge reversed the trend of
shrinking national defence budgets. This has, in turn, strengthened Allies’
ability to develop and acquire the capabilities they need. Part of NATO’s job
is helping Allies make informed investment decisions on military capabilities.
One way it does this is by supporting joint multinational efforts to develop
new capabilities – in other words, helping Allies to work together to design,
manufacture and acquire the high-end equipment their militaries need. In 2018,
there were significant developments on seven different multinational projects.
Two new projects were launched: the Maritime Battle Decisive
Munitions project and the Maritime Unmanned Systems project. The former will
help participants to procure and manage stockpiles of key maritime munitions more
cheaply and flexibly. The latter will create a framework for the introduction
of unmanned capabilities that contributes to a wide range of naval missions
from logistics, to peacekeeping, to full-scale naval warfare. Two existing
multinational projects attracted the involvement of additional Allies. The
Maritime Multi Mission Aircraft project – which was joined by Canada and
Poland3 – will replace aging Maritime Patrol Aircraft fleets. The project to
develop a multinational fleet of air refuelling tankers – the socalled
Multi-Role Tanker Transport Capability – was joined by Belgium4 . Cooperation
on three additional projects was formalised through memoranda of understanding.
The results will be a joint training centre for air crews conducting insertion
and extraction of Special Operations Forces; a multinational command for
Special Operations Forces; and a framework for managing the acquisition and
storage of land munitions. In August, participants in the Air-toGround
Precision Guided Munitions framework received the first batch of new munitions.
Funding
[C]ollective security does not come for free, and Allies
have stepped up with four consecutive years of rising defence investment. At
the Brussels Summit, we acknowledged the urgency to spend more and better on
defence, and to achieve fairer burden-sharing. Rising national defence spending
figures show we are moving in the right direction.
European Allies and Canada have spent an extra USD 41 billion more on defence since 2016. Based on national plans submitted by Allies, this figure will rise to an estimated USD 100 billion by the end of 2020.
Photo: U.S. Marines at Exercise Dynamic Front in Latvia earlier this year.