Month: March 2019

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Listening to Putin

Vladimir Putin has clearly sent a worrisome message to the West. It’s a heightened continuation of the aggressive policies he has pursued for well over a decade.

In the aftermath of the First Cold War, there was a brief “honeymoon” period between Moscow and Washington. Boris Yeltsin, who served as the first President of the Russian Federation from 1991 to 1999, did strive to find common ground with western nations. But his successor, Vladimir Putin, longed for the return of the Soviet Empire and the Kremlin’s military dominance of Eastern Europe. He has taken concrete steps towards achieving that goal.

The West was slow to catch on. But following the invasions of Georgia and Ukraine and the dramatic modernization and general upgrading of the Kremlin’s armed forces, particularly in his violation of a decades-old nuclear treaty, it would be difficult to make a case that Putin is not pursuing his dream of restoring a dominant role for his nation.

These expensive initiatives came at a time when the moribund Russian economy could barely afford to spend scarce funds. They also came at a time when there was little that could reasonably be called a threat to the nation.  The United States had reduced its defense budget. European nations (as President Trump has vigorously notably complained about) had allowed their militaries to atrophy.

Neighboring China had become a solid ally. Putin highlighted that fact in his recent “State of the Nation” address, noting: “Russia’s equal and mutually beneficial relations with China currently serve as an important factor of stability in international affairs and in terms of Eurasian security, offering a model of productive economic cooperation.”

In that speech, Putin summarized some of his military’s newest advanced weapons systems:

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“The work on promising prototypes and weapon systems that I spoke about in my Address last year continues as scheduled and without disruptions. We have launched serial production of the Avangard [hypersonic missile] system. As planned, this year, the first regiment of the Strategic Missile Troops will be equipped with Avangard. The Sarmat super-heavy intercontinental missile of unprecedented power is undergoing a series of tests. The Peresvet laser weapon and the aviation systems equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles proved their unique characteristics during test and combat alert missions while the personnel learned how to operate them. Next December, all the Peresvet missiles supplied to the Armed Forces will be put on standby alert. We will continue expanding the infrastructure for the MiG-31 interceptors carrying Kinzhal missiles. The Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile of unlimited range and the Poseidon nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle of unlimited range are successfully undergoing tests.”

the Russia Beyond publication provides more details. It describes the Sarmat Nuclear Missiles as “The biggest and most devastating system in the world … It’s the only missile in the world able to cover 17,000 km before eliminating everything in its path. Every missile will have at least 15 multiple reentry vehicles (MIRV), each with a yield of between 150 and 300 kilotons, enough to blow a crater the size of the Grand Canyon. Hypersonic missiles: Another super hot addition to Russia’s weapons store: The first ever missiles able to hurtle towards their target at 2.5 km/s (eight times faster than the speed of sound). Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets: Experimental machines of this type have already been baptized in Syria to test their devastating power, and the new missiles and bombs specially created for them. The fastest military helicopter in the world: This army chopper will be able to fly at speeds of up to 500 km/h with eight men on board armed to the teeth with devastating weaponry.”

It is important to note that these are primarily offensive, not defensive, weapons systems. They are precisely what a nation would employ to intimidate any opponent, and they were developed at precisely the same time as the U.S. and its European allies were reducing their militaries.

Photo: Official Russian site

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European Union Faces Severe Challenges

The European Union (EU) suffered a major setback as the British Parliament defeated, by a vote of 432 to 202, a “Brexit” deal which sought to negate the actual effect of the June 2016 vote by the British people to leave the organization which many believe has caused extraordinary harm to its member nations.

A British conservative web site notes “That’s a margin of 63 votes more than the largest rebellion of modern British politics – over Iraq in 2003 – which was larger than any rebellion of any party since the Corn Laws, [of 1846.]” It was also, according to the site, “the biggest Conservative revolt of modern times

Under the plan by Prime Minister Theresa May, the U.K. would technically leave the EU but still be bound by most of its regulations.

The Prime Minister, as well as much of the upper leadership of both major British political parties, disagreed with their constituents and have, since the 2016 vote, sought ways to negate it. They have failed, and barring any further last-minute moves to ignore the democratic process, the UK will officially be out of the European Union March 29.

The disdain for the 2016 vote among the United Kingdom’s elitists has been vehement. David Lammy, a Labour Party Member of Parliament, previously called for a “second vote” on Brexit since he, and other key political figures, didn’t agree with the public’s decision to drop out of the European Union.  Attempting to overturn the will of the voters by repeated ballots, often influenced by leading media figures who are more in tune with elitist than the general citizenry, has been an attempt to use Democracy’s own tools against it.

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EU policies have resulted in astounding increases in crime and civil disorder (resulting from open borders policies,) excessive regulations on businesses and misguided national economic practices.

The problem arises from the elitist attitude of the EU’s leadership in Brussels.  An Oxford study   noted that  process of European integration is primarily “the result of conscious and often controversial decisions made by its domestic (or national) elites.” 

Dissatisfaction with the EU has been growing for some time, and not just among the British. A 2016 Pew survey   reported that A median of just 51% across 10 EU countries surveyed had a favorable view of the European Union. A median of 42% in these 10 nations want more power returned to their national capitals, while only 19% favor giving Brussels more power and 27% favor the status quo.

In addition to a rising tide of popular opinion against the EU, several governments are moving against it. Britain’s Daily Mail reports that the Italian and Polish governments are seeking to form an “an anti-EU alliance and lead a ‘European spring’ to replace the ‘French-German axis.’” Anger over the EU’s immigration policies and its budgetary mandates have led to exceptional dissatisfaction by the two governments. The publication quoted Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Salvini As saying “Someone has betrayed the European dream…’We will provide the blood for a new European community based on respect, work, growth and equality.” 

A Gatestone analysis also quotes Salvini’s goal, announced on January 12,to begin “a journey that will continue in the coming months for a different Europe, for a change of the European Commission, of European policies, which puts at the center the right to life, work, health, safety, all that the European elites, financed by [billionaire Hungarian philanthropist George] Soros and represented by Macron…”

Salvini’s distrust comes from both the results of the EU’s policies, and the Brussels leadership. He perceives that leadership as largely responding to the interests of Germany and France, while running roughshod over the interests of the citizenry of the other European nations.

Illustration: European Union flag

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Dragon brings US closer to manned launches

For the first time in history, a commercially-built and operated American crew spacecraft and rocket, launched from American soil, reached the  International Space Station.

“[The] successful launch marks a new chapter in American excellence, getting us closer to once again flying American astronauts on American rockets from American soil,” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. “I proudly congratulate the SpaceX and NASA teams for this major milestone in our nation’s space history. This first launch of a space system designed for humans, and built and operated by a commercial company through a public-private partnership, is a revolutionary step on our path to get humans to the Moon, Mars and beyond.”

Known as Demo-1, SpaceX’s inaugural flight with NASA’s Commercial Crew Program is an important uncrewed mission designed to test the end-to-end capabilities of the new system. It brings the nation one-step closer to the return of human launches to the space station from the United States for the first time since 2011 – the last space shuttle mission.

Space agency sources noted that “The program demonstrates NASA’s commitment to investing in commercial companies through public-private partnerships and builds on the success of American companies, including SpaceX, already delivering cargo to the space station.”

The public-private partnership combines commercial companies’ approaches to human spaceflight and NASA’s decades-long experience in design, development and operations of a crew space system.

“We are watching history being made with the launch of the SpaceX Demo-1 mission,” said Steve Stich, launch manager and deputy manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.

SpaceX controlled the launch of the Falcon 9 rocket from Kennedy’s Launch Control Center Firing Room 4, the former space shuttle control room, which SpaceX has leased as its primary launch control center. As Crew Dragon ascended into space, SpaceX commanded the Crew Dragon spacecraft from its mission control center in Hawthorne, California. NASA teams monitored space station operations throughout the flight from Mission Control Center at the agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston. 

Mission Objectives 

All the launch pad and vehicle hardware, and the launch day operations, were conducted in preparation for the next flight with crew aboard, including the control teams and ground crews. The mission and testing continues once the Falcon 9 lifts off the pad. 

During the spacecraft’s approach, in-orbit demonstrations included rendezvous activities from a distance of up to 2.5 miles, known as far field, and activities within one mile, known as near field. The spacecraft, in its approach to the space station, demonstrated its automated control and maneuvering capabilities by reversing course and backing away from the station before the final docking sequence. 

Previous cargo Dragon vehicles have been attached to the space station after capture by the station’s robotic arm. The Crew Dragon docked using new sensor systems, new propulsion systems and the new international docking mechanism to attach to the station’s Harmony module forward port, fitted with a new international docking adapter. Astronauts installed the adapter during a spacewalk in August 2016, following its delivery to the station in the trunk of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft on its ninth commercial resupply services mission.   

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Dragon carried over 400 pounds of crew supplies and equipment to the space station, and will return some critical research samples to Earth. A lifelike test device named Ripley, looking like an astronaut (named after the lead character in the scifi movie “Alien,” was onboard, outfitted with sensors to provide data on potential effects on humans traveling on the new spacecraft.

For operational missions, Crew Dragon will be able to launch as many as four crew members and carry more than 220 pounds of cargo, enabling the expansion of the crew members, increasing the time dedicated to research in the unique microgravity environment, and returning more science back to Earth.

The Crew Dragon is designed to stay docked to station for up to 210 days, although the Crew Dragon used for this flight test will not have that capability. This spacecraft will remain docked to the space station only five days, departing Friday, March 8. After undocking from the station.

Additional spacecraft mission objectives include a safe departure from the station, followed by a deorbit burn and parachute deployment to slow the spacecraft before splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean, off the Florida Space Coast. SpaceX’s recovery ship, Go Searcher, will retrieve Crew Dragon and transport it back to port. Teams will be closely monitoring the parachute system and entry control system operation, which have been changed from cargo Dragons to provide higher reliability for crew flights.

NASA and SpaceX will use data from Demo-1, along with planned upgrades and additional qualification testing, to further prepare for Demo-2, the crewed flight test that will carry NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the International Space Station. NASA will validate the performance of SpaceX’s systems before putting crew on board for the Demo-2 flight, currently targeted for July.

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program is working with Boeing and SpaceX to design, build, test and operate safe, reliable and cost-effective human transportation systems to low-Earth orbit. Both companies are focused on test missions, including abort system demonstrations and crew flight tests, ahead of regularly flying crew missions to the space station. Both companies’ crewed flights will be the first times in history NASA has sent astronauts to space on systems owned, built, tested and operated by private companies. 

SpaceX will be joined shortly by Boeing’s manned spacecraft, the CST-100 Starliner. The Starliner was designed to accommodate seven passengers, or a mix of crew and cargo, for missions to low-Earth orbit. For NASA service missions to the International Space Station, it will carry up to four NASA-sponsored crew members and time-critical scientific research. The Starliner has an innovative, weldless structure and is reusable up to 10 times with a six-month turnaround time. It also features wireless internet and tablet technology for crew interfaces.

Both spacecraft are scheduled to carry astronauts to space this summer.

Photo: Dragon/Falcon-9 (NASA)

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Foreign Policy Update

NORTH KOREA

In a press interview in the Philippines Secretary of State Michael Pompeo responded to questions concerning the reasons behind President Trump’s abruptly ending talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. According to Pompeo, Kim demanded that all sanctions against the country be immediately lifted. The sanctions were voted on and imposed by every member country of the United Nations Security Council resolution, not solely by the Trump Administration. The goal of the UN resolution is denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, something which Kim committed to in previous statements.

Pompeo labeled the talks a long , intractable, and “complex process.” President Trump was praised by former Vice President Biden for ending the current set of talks due to North Korea’s unwillingness to accept reasonable terms for denuclearization. Pompeo said the discussions will continue at a future date. Already the North Korean government has stated it wants to continue working with the United States to resolve their differences. Some criticized Kim’s statement as an attempt to draw out the process. According to a senior State Department official “We didn’t get a deal because there wasn’t a deal to be had.” US Special Representative Beigun will be holding addition meetings with North Korean government officials at a future date still to be determined.

Prior to the first meeting with Kim, President Trump warned the American public to be prepared for an extended negotiating period and that stated he was committed to finding a non-nuclear resolution to the regional destabilization caused by the Kim regime.

PHILIPPINES

In talks with President Duerte of the Philippines, Secretary Pompeo promised that the United States would continue to have the country’s back when it comes to the South China Sea. In August 1951 the two nations signed the long-standing Mutual Defense Treaty which dictated that both nations would support each other if either were attacked by a third party. Support for the Treaty has increased recently due to foreign threats and fear of China’s military actions in the area. Pompeo told reporters he was reassuring Duerte that Washington continued to stand behind the agreement.

Pompeo added that the Treaty “…lays out a very – set of specific requirements, and requirements on both countries – not just the United States to support the Philippines, but each country has its responsibility for its own security as a first and principle matter…. This history, the risk that’s presented by China’s continued encroachment to free and open navigation and the threat that it presents through the militarization of these island reefs, these rocks, is real, and I wanted President Duterte to understand that we value these shipping lanes, we value the Pacific, we value the capacity for countries to make sovereign decisions.

INDIA AND PAKISTAN

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In reference to increasing tensions in the Indian subcontinent Secretary of State Pompeo said “…we were and continue to be very engaged with the issue between India and Pakistan. I spent a good deal of time on the phone… talking to leaders in both countries, making sure there was good information exchanged, encouraging each country to not take any action that would escalate and create increased risk. I had good conversations, and I am hopeful that we can take down the tension there, at least for the time being, so they can begin to have conversations that don’t portend risk of escalation to either of the two countries.”

UKRAINE

In a written statement issued by Secretary of State Pompeo, he said the “United States remains gravely concerned by the worsening repression by Russia’s occupation regime in Crimea. During the past five years, Russian occupation authorities have engaged in an array of abuses in a campaign to eliminate all opposition to its control over Crimea. As part of this campaign, Russia has arbitrarily detained and wrongfully convicted individuals for peaceful opposition to the occupation, and in some cases has forcibly transferred these individuals from occupied Crimea to Russia.

“The United States calls on Russia to release all of the Ukrainians, including members of the Crimean Tatar community, it has imprisoned in retaliation for their peaceful dissent… We call on Russia to cease all its abuses immediately, to end its occupation of Crimea, and, in the meantime, to comply with its obligations under international law, including the law of occupation.

In the Crimea Declaration of July 25, 2018, Washington reaffirmed its refusal to recognize the Kremlin’s claims of sovereignty over Crimea and condemned Russia’s illegal actions in the region. The Secretary stated that the United States will “maintain respective sanctions against Russia until the Russian government returns control of Crimea to Ukraine and fully implements the Minsk agreements.” 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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North Macedonia Joins NATO

At NATO Headquarters in Brussels on February Sixth, the Permanent Representatives to NATO of the 29 members of the Alliance signed the Accession Protocol for the future Republic of North Macedonia. The signing ceremony took place in the presence of North Macedonian Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov.

North Macedonia’s entry into NATO had been delayed due to a dispute with Greece on the nation’s name.  Greece, which has a northern territory named Macedonia, objected, stating that the name could imply a claim to some of its land.  Following the addition of the word “North, Athens dropped its objections.

Russia, as expected, continues to object to the move. Moscow considers that part of Europe to be within its sphere of influence, as part of what used to be the Soviet Empire. North Macedonia is the fourth Balkan country to join NATO following Croatia, Albania and Montenegro. 

Following the signing of the Accession Protocol, Skopje (Macedonia’s Capital) can now take part in NATO activities as an invitee.  The accession process now moves to the capitals of the other NATO Allies where the Protocol will be ratified according to national procedures.  The country will become a member of NATO as soon as all Allies have ratified the Accession Protocol.

Speaking following the signing ceremony NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said, “NATO keeps almost one billion citizens across Europe and North America secure and with you joining NATO there will be thirty countries committed to protect each other. Your accession will bring more stability to the Western Balkans. This is good for the region and for Euro-Atlantic security.”

Mr. Stoltenberg congratulated both Skopje and Athens for showing commitment and courage in reaching an agreement on the name issue.

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Other nations are seeking or considering NATO membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina was invited to join the Membership Action Plan in April 2010 but its participation is pending the resolution of a key issue concerning immovable defense property. At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, the Allies agreed that Georgia and Ukraine will become members of NATO in the future (since 2010, Ukraine has not been formally pursuing membership.)

The potential of Sweden, Finland, Ukraine and Georgia as potential future NATO members face fierce objections from Moscow’s Air Force and Navy over the past several years.  Those nations and NATO itself could gain a strategic advantage from joining together, but some fear Putin’s reaction to the potential move.  

Many in Sweden are advocating joining the alliance, particularly due to threatening actions by Moscow. However, as noted by Business Insider  “Russia’s ambassador to Sweden has warned the country of the potential military ‘consequences’ associated with joining NATO. In an interview with the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter Russian Ambassador Viktor Tatarintsev told the publication  “…that Russia does not have any military plans against Sweden, in line with Stockholm’s alliance neutrality. But Tatarintsev warned that this could change if Sweden were to join the NATO alliance…Putin pointed out that there will be consequences, ‘that Russia will have to resort to a response of the military kind and re-orientate our troops and missiles,’ the ambassador said. ‘The country that joins NATO needs to be aware of the risks it is exposing itself to’…An October 2014 poll showed 37% of Swedes were in favor of joining NATO with 36% of Swedes against — the first time that more Swedes have favored joining the alliance than not. This swing in public opinion could be in response to a series of aggressive and provocative Russian actions throughout the region.”

North Macedonia will join Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States in the alliance.

Photo: NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg and Macedonia foreign Secretary Nikola Dimitrov. (NATO)