Month: February 2019

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

United States Announces New Humanitarian Assistance at the Launch of the Joint Response Plan for Bangladesh

Today in Geneva, the United States announced $60 million in humanitarian assistance at the launch of the 2019 UN Joint Response Plan for Bangladesh. This funding will help address the emergency needs of more than 900,000 refugees in Bangladesh, most of whom are Rohingya women and children from Burma, and the related needs of Bangladeshi host communities. The beneficiaries include Rohingya who have taken refuge in Bangladesh since August 2017, when Burmese security forces began committing atrocities, including ethnic cleansing, against Rohingya villagers across northern Rakhine State in Burma.

The United States remains the leading contributor to the humanitarian response to this crisis in Burma and Bangladesh, having provided nearly $449 million since the outbreak of violence in August 2017, of which nearly $406 million is for programs inside Bangladesh. We continue to call on others to join us in contributing to this humanitarian response.

U.S. assistance provides protection, emergency shelter, food, water, sanitation, health care, psychosocial support, and education for people affected by the crisis, including Bangladeshi host communities and people displaced inside Burma and in the region. U.S. assistance also supports the efforts of humanitarian organizations and the Government of Bangladesh to improve camp infrastructure and shelter ahead of the monsoon and cyclone seasons.

The United States commends the Government of Bangladesh’s generosity in responding to this humanitarian crisis and appreciates its continued efforts to ensure assistance reaches the affected population.

We continue to call on Burma to create the conditions that would allow for voluntary, safe, dignified, and sustainable returns, based on the informed consent of those who have been forcibly displaced.

Secretary Pompeo’s Meeting With European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini

he below is attributable to Deputy Spokesperson Robert Palladino:‎

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Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo met with EU High Representative Federica Mogherini today in Brussels to discuss U.S.-EU cooperation on a range of key issues, including efforts to restore democracy to Venezuela and support Interim President Juan Guaido and the National Assembly, the conflict in Syria, the upcoming U.S.-DPRK Summit in Hanoi, and developments in the Balkans, Ukraine, and Afghanistan. The Secretary and High Representative committed to working together closely on these issues in the coming weeks.

Eight-year Anniversary of the Detention of 2009 Iranian Political Opponents

This week marks the eight-year anniversary of the detention of 2009 Iranian presidential election candidates Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, as well as Mousavi’s wife and women’s rights advocate Zahra Rahnavard. We condemn the continued house arrest of these three individuals, which contradicts Iran’s own laws and its international obligations, including those under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights to provide minimum fair trial guarantees and not to subject individuals to arbitrary arrest or detention.

As Iran marks the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, it is an opportunity for the world once again to reflect on the regime’s refusal to protect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of Iranians. In addition to Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rahnavard, the Iranian regime continues to imprison hundreds of its people for political reasons. In fact, this past year was called Iran’s “year of shame” due to the regime’s ongoing ruthless crackdowns on the individuals living inside its borders. The regime arrested at least 7,000 peaceful protesters and held them in the country’s notorious prisons. The victims of the regime’s abuses include farmers, journalists, members of ethnic and religious minorities like Ahwazis and Gonabadi Sufis, teachers, truckers, environmentalists, students, and women demanding to choose what they wear. At least 26 protesters lost their lives, some under suspicious circumstances while held in custody.

Iranians must be able to live without fear of arbitrary arrest and detention, denial of fair trial guarantees, or even losing their lives for exercising their basic human rights. We condemn the continued arbitrary detention of the 2009 election candidates, along with those hundreds of other individuals being held arbitrarily or without fair public trials across the country. We demand their immediate release and the release of all prisoners of conscience.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay


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Competing in Space, Part 3

DENYING SPACE

Society increasingly depends on the services provided by satellites. What if GPS and other services were unreliable or unavailable? Police, firefighters, and paramedics, who rely on satellite navigation, would be slow or unable to respond in an emergency. Live news from across the country or the other side of the planet would no longer be available. Long-distance telephone, satellite television, and internet would be unavailable. Retail stores and gas stations could not communicate with banks to complete transactions. Many critical services and daily conveniences we rely on could be affected by weapons targeting our space services.

Potential adversaries are developing and proliferating a variety of weapons that could disrupt or deny civil and military space services. Although many of these weapons are intended to degrade space services temporarily, others can damage or destroy satellites permanently.

Adversaries may jam global navigation and communications satellites used for command and control of naval, ground, and air forces, to include manned and unmanned vehicles. l Weapons designed to target intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities may deny the ability to locate, monitor, track, and target the enemy. For example, lasers can temporarily or permanently blind imagery satellites and other strategic sensors.

  • Adversaries may use anti-satellite missiles to shoot down satellites in low Earth orbit. China used an anti-satellite missile against its own defunct weather satellite in 2007. The result of a missile shooting down a satellite can produce debris that may threaten satellites in nearby orbits.
  •   A number of foreign countries are believed to be testing on-orbit, space-based anti-satellite technologies and concepts. China and Russia continue to conduct sophisticated on-orbit activities that may advance counterspace capabilities.
  • Physical attacks against ground sites and infrastructure that support space operations can also threaten satellite services. Cyber capabilities could target space systems and supporting infrastructure.
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Space Situational Awareness

Terrestrial and space-based sensors search the sky for foreign satellites, chart their orbits, and determine the function and operational status. This is a continuous process, first in a sequence of steps that a potential adversary will use to target satellites, launch counterspace weapons, and assess the effectiveness of an attack. This image depicts the various categories of sensors used for space situational awareness (e.g., ground-based radars, telescopes, signals intercept antennas, and space-based sensors).

China and Russia both have large networks of ground-based sensors to monitor and target satellites. Some of these sensors also perform a ballistic missile early warning function.

Space object surveillance and identification sensors can also enable foreign denial and deception programs. For instance, knowing when reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites pass overhead allows adversaries to coordinate the concealment of sensitive military capabilities or operations on the ground.

Countries without advanced space tracking sensors can attain basic space situational awareness by purchasing commercially available telescopes.

Cyber and Electronic Threats

Satellite command and data distribution networks expose space systems, ground infrastructure, users, and the links connecting these segments to cyber threats. The graphic below indicates possible cyber threats to each of a space system’s segments.

Foreign competitors are capable of conducting electronic attacks to disrupt, deny, deceive, or degrade space services. Jamming prevents users from receiving intended signals and can be accomplished by two primary methods: uplink jamming or downlink jamming.

Uplink jamming is directed toward the satellite, and must operate at the same frequency and approximate power level as the target signals. Effects can be widespread. Conversely, downlink jamming is directed at users on the ground, and its effects are more localized.

China and Russia consider both offensive cyber capabilities and electronic warfare as key assets for maintaining military advantage. As a result, both countries are researching and developing cyber capabilities and modernizing electronic warfare assets.

Anti-Satellite Missiles and Directed-Energy Weapons

Anti-satellite missiles destroy targeted satellites. Using a ground-launched anti-satellite missile in 2007, China destroyed one of its defunct weather satellites more than 500 miles above the Earth. As seen below, the impact of this collision generated over 3,000 pieces of space debris that will continue orbiting the Earth for decades.

China has military units that have begun training with anti-satellite missiles. Russia is probably also developing an anti-satellite missile. These missiles can destroy U.S. and allied space systems in low Earth orbit, making intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications satellites vulnerable.

Counterspace directed-energy weapons are designed to produce reversible or non-reversible effects against space systems by emitting highly focused radiofrequency or laser energy. Reversible effects include temporarily blinding optical sensors. Non-reversible effects include permanently damaging or destroying sensors or other satellite components.

Both China and Russia intend to field counterspace directed-energy weapons. Over the past two decades, Chinese defense research has proposed the development of several reversible and non-reversible counterspace directed-energy weapons. Russia is reportedly developing an airborne laser weapon system intended for use against space-based missile defense sensors.

Some spacefaring countries are testing or researching sophisticated on-orbit technologies for satellite servicing and debris removal. These technologies could also damage satellites.

SPACE OUTLOOK

Foreign space competitors will pursue new capabilities to access, operate in, and conduct war using the space domain, while working to deny the same to others. In the near future, competitors will enhance their warfighting capacity by improving space capabilities. Increasingly affordable space systems will heighten space congestion and raise the risk of collision. Development of some space technologies could lead to a misperception of intent, driving countries to adopt a more hostile posture. Understanding the risks created by emerging technologies is critical to maintaining a peaceful space domain.

New Competition for Space Beyond Earth’s Orbit

In the past two decades, foreign competitors have looked to lunar missions as key demonstrations of technological sophistication and economic prosperity. In 2013, China became the first country to land a mission on the Moon’s surface since the Soviet Union in 1976. China plans to become an international leader in lunar research and exploration with goals to assemble a lunar research station beginning in 2025, perform a crewed Moon landing mission in 2036, and establish a Lunar Research and Development Base around 2050. Russia plans to launch a robotic Moon mission in 2021.

China and Russia have active Mars and deep space exploration programs. Through the mid-2020s, China intends to launch its first Mars rover mission and an asteroid sample return mission. Russia’s Mars program can be traced back to Soviet ambitions in the 1960s. Since then, it has launched several Mars exploration missions, with the only two successful missions occurring in 1971. Recently, Russia has partnered with the European Space Agency in the European-led ExoMars program, which launched a Mars orbiter in 2016 and plans to launch a rover in 2020.

More Competitors will Integrate Space into Military Capabilities

Space-Based Weapons

Space-based anti-satellite systems are satellites that target other space systems. Concepts for space-based anti-satellite systems vary widely and include designs to deliver a spectrum of reversible and nonreversible counterspace effects. These concepts span from simple interceptors to complex space robotics systems, and can include kinetic kill vehicles, radiofrequency jammers, lasers, chemical sprayers, high-power microwaves, and robotic mechanisms.

China and Russia are the most capable competitors in space today. However, reduced cost, increased access, and proliferation of space systems will drive more countries to integrate these systems into military capabilities. Furthermore, commercial or openly available space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, communications, and navigation services may enable non-state actors (e.g., terrorist groups) to improve operational capabilities.

Growing Number of Space Objects will Increase Risk of Collisions

As the number of objects in space increases, particularly in low Earth orbit, the risk of collisions will grow. Amidst the growing popularity of smaller satellites, U.S. and allied space monitoring capabilities, which help prevent collisions in space, may struggle to track and identify objects and discriminate between threats and non-threats.

Increasing Use of Dual-Use Technologies Obscures Intent, Deterrence in Space

Dual-use capabilities will challenge U.S. ability to provide advanced warning of nefarious intentions or discern between peaceful and potential hostile activity. For example, future satellite servicing and recycling capabilities incorporate a variety of technologies, such as robotic arms, to inspect, repair, or dispose of damaged satellites. However, the same technologies have inherent counterspace capabilities that could be used to inspect non-consenting satellites or to cause physical damage, steal parts, or grapple with a satellite.

Future Concepts will Advance Space System Capabilities

Several concepts for future technologies promise to provide new enhancements to competitors’ space capabilities. For instance, advanced artificial intelligence and improved sensors will provide satellites the situational awareness for autonomous self-protection. Additionally, 3D printing in space could allow competitors to nearly eliminate the cost of space launch by servicing, repairing, or manufacturing new systems entirely on orbit.

Illustration:
The Space and Missile Systems Center at Los Angeles Air Force Base in El Segundo, Calif. is Air Force Space Command’s center of acquisition excellence for acquiring and developing military space systems. As the only active duty military installation in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area, its portfolio includes the Global Positioning System, military satellite communications, defense meteorological satellites, space launch and range systems, satellite control networks, space based infrared systems and space situational awareness capabilities. (U.S. Air Force illustration)

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Competing in Space, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its presentation of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center’s (NASC) report detailing developing trends in the space domain and the growing challenges posed by foreign space assets.

TRENDS IN SPACE

Space technologies play a fundamental role in the day-to-day affairs of the public, businesses, governments, and militaries worldwide. Satellite remote sensing, communications, and navigation systems enable real-time access to information necessary to connect people, operate a global economy, respond to natural disasters, and support military operations. While technological advancement in the space domain has created new opportunities, it has also created new risks and vulnerabilities across these sectors. For the U.S. and its allies, maintaining the leading edge in warfighting requires understanding evolving trends in the space domain.

SPACE APPLICATIONS

Reconnaissance and Remote Sensing

Reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites collect images, electronic emissions, and other data across the globe to meet a variety of customer needs. There are a number of civil and commercial applications for remote sensing data, such as environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster response. High demand for this data and falling costs for capable technology have spurred the rapid growth and proliferation of these satellites. A decade ago, foreign remote sensing satellites numbered nearly 100 — by mid2018, that number reached over 300.

In addition to civil and commercial uses, these satellites provide military and intelligence collection capabilities. They have reduced the ability of all countries to perform sensitive military activities undetected. The images on the right show Chinese commercial imagery of several sensitive U.S. locations.

China and Russia have the largest remote sensing satellite fleets outside the U.S. Additionally, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Russian Ministry of Defense are reportedly capable of employing their respective civil and commercial remote sensing satellites to supplement military-dedicated capabilities.

As of May 2018, the Chinese reconnaissance and remote sensing fleet consisted of more than 120 satellites designed to collect data for civil, commercial, or military owners and operators. Reportedly, the PLA owns and operates about half of these systems, most of which could support monitoring, tracking, and targeting of U.S. forces. These satellites also allow the PLA to maintain situational awareness of China’s regional rivals (e.g., India and Japan) and potential regional flashpoints (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas).

Russia has sought to sustain its reconnaissance and remote sensing satellite fleet despite funding shortfalls, economic sanctions, and technological setbacks since the end of the Cold War. This fleet contains at least 20 satellites, half reportedly owned and operated by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Despite possessing fewer satellites, it is widely accepted that the capabilities of individual Russian reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites exceed the individual capabilities of Chinese satellites. For Russia, these systems reportedly support ongoing military operations in Syria, but can also monitor U.S. and allied forces operating globally.

Satellite Communications

Global communications networks rely on satellite communications systems for worldwide voice communications, television broadcast, broadband internet, mobile services, and data transfer. Satellite communications systems are rapidly deployable, expandable, and affordable, and the demand for services continues to rise worldwide.

Today, most communications satellites operate in geosynchronous orbit more than 22,200 miles above the Earth. This distance provides wider coverage of the globe with fewer satellites; however, it is more expensive to place satellites in orbit at this distance. To reduce cost and gain new markets, satellite communications service providers have proposed future constellations of thousands of satellites in low and medium orbits. Better technology promises greater affordability, efficiency, and flexibility for civil, government, and military users worldwide.

Many countries operate satellite communications systems and lease commercial services for official government communications worldwide. Competitors to the U.S. rely on these systems for military command and control, In addition, most shampoos and conditioners have a lathering agent that makes it easier for people to build trust and buy it instead of other generic professional cialis pills of erectile dysfunction available in the market are too much costly whereas kamagra is an effective medicine for the online users. Make sure you reduce your fat buy viagra cheap intake to increase ejaculation volume. generic cialis overnight The dosage pattern is quite trouble-free. Using this medicine in combination with any discount tadalafil of the following medicines: astemizole cisapride terfenadine. particularly in places inaccessible by terrestrial communications.

China plans to expand services beyond Asia by providing satellite communications to users worldwide and exporting domestically developed systems. China is testing multiple next-generation capabilities, such as the world’s first quantum communications satellite, and plans to develop at least three new constellations. Russia maintains a satellite communications fleet that provides resilient services to civil, government, and military users within its borders and worldwide.

Russia has taken steps to modernize its satellite communications systems, but continues to lag behind other worldwide providers.

Satellite Navigation

The 1991 Gulf War and subsequent U.S. military operations illustrated the value of the U.S. GPS satellite navigation system for troop movement, force tracking, and precision munition delivery. This prompted other countries to develop their own satellite navigation systems. Today, satellite navigation services are critical to military and civilian users worldwide, with applications in navigation, munitions guidance, communications, agriculture, banking, and power supply. Advances in satellite navigation technology offer foreign countries improved military situational awareness and accuracy in precision-guided munitions.

Russia and the European Union currently operate worldwide satellite navigation systems (GLONASS and Galileo, respectively), while India and Japan operate regional navigation systems (NavIC and QZSS, respectively). China’s satellite navigation system, known as BeiDou, offers satellite navigation services in Asia. The rise of these foreign satellite navigation services reduces dependence on GPS and provides worldwide users multiple satellite navigation options.

In 2017, China began deployment of its nextgeneration, worldwide BeiDou constellation, scheduled for full operation in 2020. The BeiDou constellation also offers text messaging and user tracking through its Short Message Service, to enable mass communications for specific BeiDou users and provide additional command and control capabilities for the Chinese military. Russia’s GLONASS constellation provides worldwide satellite navigation services. Following the constellation’s deterioration in the late 1990s, Russia committed to reconstituting GLONASS during the 2000s. With full capacity regained in 2011, Russia now launches satellites as needed to maintain the constellation while developing next generation GLONASS satellites.

Space Launch Capabilities

Since the start of the “Space Race” in 1957, the number of countries capable of placing satellites in space has grown beyond the U.S. and former Soviet Union. Today, nine countries and one international organization can independently launch spacecraft: China, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., and the European Space Agency.

 Many countries developed space launch capabilities to compete in the international market or to advance national security strategies that require domestic access to space. Iran and North Korea maintain independent space launch capabilities that could also test ballistic missile technologies. The graphic above indicates the global spacefaring nations’ capabilities to launch satellites into different orbits.

China and Russia are updating their space launch capabilities to increase responsiveness, reduce launch timelines, improve manufacturing efficiencies, and support future human spaceflight and deep space exploration missions. The graphic below depicts Chinese and Russian light-, medium-, heavy-, and proposed super heavy-lift space launch vehicles.

China and Russia are updating their medium- and heavy-lift launch fleets to include new, modular launch vehicles with common designs that increase manufacturing efficiency, launch vehicle reliability, and overall cost savings for space launches.

China has developed and fielded light, quick response space launch vehicles capable of expedited launches. Compared to medium- and heavy-lift launch vehicles, quick response systems require little launch infrastructure, can relocate by road or rail, can be stored launch-ready for longer periods, but are only capable of launching small satellite payloads into low orbits. China designed quick response space launch vehicles to increase its attractiveness as a commercial small satellite launch provider and to rapidly reconstitute space capabilities in low Earth orbit during disasters or conflicts.

China and Russia are currently in the early stages of developing super heavylift space launch vehicles similar to the U.S. Space Launch System. These super heavy-lift vehicles could support future Chinese and Russian crewed lunar and Mars exploration missions.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: U.S. Surveillance Satellite (U.S. Defense Department)

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Competing in Space

The U.S. Air Force has released an unclassified report created by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASC) detailing developing trends in the space domain and the growing challenges posed by foreign space assets.The report, titled “Competing in Space,” was created at the request of Air Force senior leaders to serve as a discussion tool for the public. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents the report in this three-part series.

After the Cold War, the United States dominated space. Over the past two decades, an emergent China and a resurgent Russia developed advanced technologies that eroded our advantage. Foreign competitors are integrating advanced space and counterspace technologies into warfighting strategies to challenge U.S. superiority and position themselves as space powers.

Rising demand and declining cost for high-quality space-based services have increased the number of systems in space and the number of countries or multinational organizations that can access space capabilities. The number of foreign reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites has tripled from 100 to 300. Foreign satellite communications, navigation, and launch services are increasingly available to competitors. China and Russia remain leaders in space launch and space-based services.

Potential adversaries are developing and proliferating anti-satellite capabilities supported by an array of sensors to characterize and target space systems. Multiple attack options (e.g., cyber, electronic, or directed-energy weapons; anti-satellite missiles; or space-based weapons) enable potential adversaries to achieve a range of damaging effects. This publication identifies developing trends in the space domain, details growing challenges posed by foreign space assets, characterizes threats to U.S. and allied use of space, and presents an outlook for the evolution of these trends.

Space is Contested, Congested, and Competitive

Competitors are developing technologies that contest U.S. and allied space systems and services. Reduced costs of space technologies and launch services have supported explosive growth in the number of objects in space and enabled numerous countries to acquire advanced technologies, boosting their own space industries and countering U.S. competitive advantage.

Space-Based Capabilities are Vulnerable

The global economy and civilian population are dependent on space systems. U.S. and allied militaries use space systems to connect, warn, guide, and inform decisions across the entire spectrum of conflict. Adversaries are aware of the advantages space services provide and actively seek You’re safe now… you’re safe now…” Whoa! Sounds familiar, eh? Are you that overprotective over your smartphone-specifically, your iPhone? Hello! Who wouldn’t? loved that viagra professional price Considering how much iPhone costs these days; one cannot simply afford an iPhone. Unfortunately, it is nothing viagra tablet in india more than a wish for them. However, if erectile dysfunction is a chronic or very old problem for a person then the supplements work in different schemes. http://appalachianmagazine.com/2017/02/13/butte-county-sheriff-were-still-quite-early-on-into-this-situation/ tadalafil from cipla Paula Chaplin – Speappalachianmagazine.com buy viagra onlinet Practice Nurse to Dr Jill Pritchard, Genito-urinary consultant at Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Trust, Surrey. “I work in the Blanche Heriot Unit as a speviagrat Nurse seeing patients with vulval pain and discomfort. capabilities to deny them.

Space is Increasingly Militarized

Both China and Russia are developing new space capabilities to achieve military goals and reduce their reliance on U.S. space systems. Through military reforms, China and Russia have organized new military forces devoted to the employment of space and counterspace capabilities and regularly integrate them into military exercises. Meanwhile, these countries continue to develop, test, and proliferate sophisticated anti-satellite weapons to hold U.S. and allied space assets at risk.

International Norms Remain Elusive

Over the past decade, international forums have pursued legal frameworks for responsible conduct in space. To date, the international community has not achieved a global consensus on new laws or norms despite efforts to increase transparency in space operations, avoid deliberate debris-generating events (e.g., antisatellite weapon tests, orbital collisions), and prevent the placement of weapons in space.

China and Russia continue to endorse a draft “Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects (PPWT).” While this draft promotes “no first placement” of weapons in space, it fails to address a variety of anti-satellite weapons and lacks meaningful verification mechanisms. Furthermore, despite publicly insisting that space is a peaceful domain, these competitors are continuing development of several anti-satellite weapons.

Technology Proliferation Driving the Increase in Competitive Space Actors

Historically, high cost and technical complexity limited space access to a select few space powers. Over the past few decades increased commercialization and affordability of space technologies means satellites are no longer restricted to a few space powers. Today, over 50 countries and multinational organizations own or operate space assets, while China and Russia maintain the largest foreign space system fleets.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Illustration: National Air and Space Intelligence Center

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Good Walls do make Good Neighbors

This article was written by the distinguished retired judge, John H. Wilson

During his State of the Union, President Trump mentioned the cities of San Diego and El Paso.  Regarding these places, the President stated that “San Diego used to have the most illegal border crossings in the country. In response, and at the request of San Diego residents and political leaders, a strong security wall was put in place. This powerful barrier almost completely ended illegal crossings.  The border city of El Paso, Texas, used to have extremely high rates of violent crime — one of the highest in the country, and considered one of our Nation’s most dangerous cities. Now, with a powerful barrier in place, El Paso is one of our safest cities.”

These statements, as well as Mr. Trump’s other comments during this speech, were aggressively fact checked by the media, even as the President spoke.  Interestingly enough, the “instant criticism” of these remarks reported by Politico centered around the deterioration of the fencing along the US-Mexico border in Southern California, and the willingness of “some” Democratic negotiators to discuss funding for some sort of unspecified barrier or other security measures at the border.

Shortly after the State of the Union, claims were made in the media that the wall between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez had nothing to do with the drop in crime experienced by El Paso.  However, the wall between Mexico and the United States in that area was built between 2006 and 2008.  Crime statistics for El Paso show an overall drop in violent crime in recent years, with a noticeable downward drop in 2006 – the year work on building the wall was commenced.

President Trump’s remarks appear to have been based upon the claim made by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who stated that  “El Paso used to have one of the highest crime rates in America…after that fence went up and separated Juarez, which still has an extremely high crime rate, the crime rates in El Paso now are some of the lowest in the country. So we know it works.”  Despite the headlines denying this declaration, the crime statistics cited above would support this assertion by both the President and the Texas Attorney General.

In fact, the effort made by President Trump’s critics to deny the obvious have been extraordinary, to say the least.  During her infamous response to the President’s speech on the need for a border wall, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi used every euphemism for border security possible, without once admitting that a wall (or fence, or barrier, or whatever description you prefer) is the most effective way to keep an intruder off of your property: “The fact is: We all agree that we need to secure our borders, while honoring our values: we can build the infrastructure and roads at our ports of entry; we can install new technology to scan cars and trucks for drugs coming into our nation; we can hire the personnel we need to facilitate trade and immigration at the border; and we can fund more innovation to detect unauthorized crossings.”

There can be no reasonable doubt that a wall is the simplest, most cost-effective method of securing any area of land.  it makes little sense to have drones or other expensive methods of detecting border crossers, without a method in place to stop those same crossers (or at least, slow them down long enough for border security to reach the area where a breech has occurred).

But, there is no need to follow the logic of this common sense argument.  Let experience guide us in this matter.

In 2006, a group of New York City judges took a good will tour of Israel.  I was part of that expedition.

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Besides Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, we traveled to the Golan Heights, and saw the Christian Druze community which served as a buffer between the Syrians and the Israelis.  But most significant for our purposes, I had the invaluable opportunity to observe at first hand the Israeli Security Fence.    

Built between 2000 and 2006, the wall, which stretches over 200 miles, stands between the state of Israel and the Palestinian territory.  One statistic alone will establish the effectiveness of this barrier – In 2002, there were 43 suicide attacks against Israeli targets.  In 2012, after the wall was put in place there were zero.  

Our guides brought us to a section of the wall which divided an Israeli town from a Palestinian “camp” (one of the things I learned while in Israel, is that many Palestinian towns were called “camps,” even when the Palestinians lived in stone or brick houses, with running water and electricity).  Here, a port had been placed in the wall – an open area, surrounded with walls, with a wide gate on either side.  Here, it was explained, Israeli trucks carrying produce could unload their cargo, while Palestinian drivers could load their trucks with that same produce for sale in the Palestinian territory.  

We also met with the Mayor of the Israeli town (an ethnic Arab), who informed us that incidents of violence in his town between Israelis and Palestinians had dropped to zero since the construction of the wall.

Yet, when I returned to America, the outright denial of the facts I witnessed in Israel continue to exist here even to the present day.  In January of 2017, Isabel Kershner of the New York Times stated that the Israeli Security Fence “was constructed under very different circumstances, and with different goals, than Mr. Trump’s wall, raising questions about whether the president’s analogy between the United States and Israel is sound.” Yet, even Ms Kershner frankly admitted that “since March 2002, there has been a sharp decline in the number and scope of terrorist attacks by West Bank Palestinians in Israel.”

What exactly is the purpose of both the Israeli Border Wall, and the Barrier Fence proposed between Mexico and the United States?  President Trump put it like this – “Simply put, walls work and walls save lives.”  In other words, the purpose of both walls is to provide for security.

Any other argument to the contrary is nothing but semantics.

Photo: San Diego (San Diego Official site picture)

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Medicare for All: The Juncture of Politics and Health, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of Medicare for All and single payer health plans.


A Gallup poll found that 5% of Americas cite healthcare as their key political issue.

The two parties are widely split on how to address it.  The Democratic Party platform supports what it terms “Universal care:”

“Democrats believe that health care is a right, not a privilege, and our health care system should put people before profits. Thanks to the hard work of President Obama and Democrats in Congress, we took a critically important step toward the goal of universal health care by passing the Affordable Care Act, which has covered 20 million more Americans and ensured millions more will never be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition. Democrats will never falter in our generations-long fight to guarantee health care as a fundamental right for every American. As part of that guarantee, Americans should be able to access public coverage through a public option, and those over 55 should be able to opt in to Medicare. Democrats will empower the states, which are the true laboratories of democracy, to use innovation waivers under the ACA to develop unique locally tailored approaches to health coverage. This will include removing barriers to states which seek to experiment with plans to ensure universal health care to every person in their state.”

Republicans believe a universal health care system would result in reduced care for all.  They believe seniors would be particularly hard-hit:

  • “More and more Democrats have endorsed the idea of a single-payer healthcare system, which would destroy Medicare as we know it, and eliminate the Medicare Advantage program for upwards of 21 million recipients… Medicare Advantage plans offer a popular, “lower cost alternative” to traditional Medicare plans.
    • Medicare Advantage enrollment is estimated to hit an “all-time high” of 22.6 million participants in 2019.
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    • Since President Trump took office, premiums for Medicare Advantage programs have decreased by 12%.
    • Under President Trump, premiums for Medicare Advantage programs are expected to decrease by six percent bringing the premium cost to only $28.
  • Medicare already faces challenges with doctors facing lower reimbursement rates and stringent rules, which has resulted in the departure of physicians that accept Medicare.
    • A single-payer system would put immense pressure on the current Medicare system by drastically increasing the number of patients in the system, leaving current Medicare beneficiaries in competition for services they once easily accessed.
  • A single-payer system would also worsen the quality of care delivered to current Medicare recipients.
    • With the “unwanted and unnecessary oversight by government in health care decisions” health care recipients face potential cuts in what are non-revenue generating services provided by physicians.
  • Democrats have signaled that illegal immigrants would be included in their single-payer healthcare program, meaning if “Medicare for all” is enacted American seniors would be competing with illegal immigrants for health care benefits. 

Bernie Sanders’ may try to deceive voters that government-run healthcare will save them money, but with a $32.6 trillion price tag, it is anything but affordable.”

In an editorial published in USATODAY, President Trump outlined his opposition to “Medicare for All” and “Single Payer” plans:

“Throughout the year, we have seen Democrats across the country uniting around a new legislative proposal that would end Medicare as we know it and take away benefits that seniors have paid for their entire lives.

“Dishonestly called “Medicare for All,” the Democratic proposal would establish a government-run, single-payer health care system that eliminates all private and employer-based health care plans and would cost an astonishing $32.6 trillion during its first 10 years…Democrats have already harmed seniors by slashing Medicare by more than $800 billion over 10 years to pay for Obamacare. Likewise, Democrats would gut Medicare with their planned government takeover of American health care… The Democrats’ plan means that after a life of hard work and sacrifice, seniors would no longer be able to depend on the benefits they were promised. By eliminating Medicare as a program for seniors, and outlawing the ability of Americans to enroll in private and employer-based plans, the Democratic plan would inevitably lead to the massive rationing of health care. Doctors and hospitals would be put out of business. Seniors would lose access to their favorite doctors. There would be long wait lines for appointments and procedures. Previously covered care would effectively be denied. In practice, the Democratic Party’s so-called Medicare for All would really be Medicare for None. Under the Democrats’ plan, today’s Medicare would be forced to die.

“The Democrats’ plan also would mean the end of choice for seniors over their own health care decisions. Instead, Democrats would give total power and control over seniors’ health care decisions to the bureaucrats in Washington, D.C… the Democrats’ commitment to government-run health care is all the more menacing to our seniors and our economy when paired with some Democrats’ absolute commitment to end enforcement of our immigration laws by abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. That means millions more would cross our borders illegally and take advantage of health care paid for by American taxpayers.”

Missing throughout the discussion lately has been the road not travelled—solutions to the high cost of health insurance and the coverage of the uninsured that do not involve the establishment of a vast enlargement of state or federal governments with all the inefficiencies and overlooking of individual needs that entails.

One of the key reasons health insurance is so high is the relative lack of competition.  Insurers can’t cross state lines to give potential customers a wider selection of choices.  Unfortunately, Obamacare and other government proposals ignore that reality.

While poorly performing hospitals and doctors should be forced to pay dearly for their malpractices, the reality is that many lawsuits are without any basis, brought under the concept that merely paying off an agreed upon sum is cheaper than going to trial.  Tort reform could lessen this burden, which greatly increases medical costs, but trial lawyers are key political contributors so this was ignored.

Nurse practitioners could perform far more routine medical services than they currently do, but this threatens the AMA’s monopoly, and like the trial lawyers, they have great lobbyists, so this approach to reducing costs never got very far.

There were other common sense ideas, but none provided the vast patronage mill and jobs-for-politicians that government schemes such as single payer, Obamacare, or “Medicare for All” do.

A final thought: if “Medicare for All” is adopted, will all the funds collected by American workers who paid into medicare throughout their working lives be refunded the amounts collected, since now even those who never paid a penny will receive equal benefits?

Photo: Pixabay

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Media interviews, Speakers Bureau


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We are broadcast in Washington, D.C. at 96.7 fm, Las Vegas, Nevada (92.1 fm,) Lancaster, Pennsylvania (1640 am & 102.1fm),  Tampa, FL. (92.1 fm),  Richey. The male symptom of this problem is:* Erectile dysfunctionIt is quite embarrassing when you buy pfizer viagra http://djpaulkom.tv/crakd-wish-you-had-these-lady-lumps/ have premature ejaculation problem. Also you have the advantage of comparing the sildenafil tablets 50mg various products and also in between different generic brands which gives you more options to come to a decision. It enhances blood circulation throughout the body and improves vigor important link viagra on line and energy levels. High stress discount levitra lifestyles, diet and exercise can all be contributing factors in cases of sexual dysfunction. Florida 88.3 fm, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 90.3 fm, Macon Georgia ( 810 am & 98.3 fm ), Boulder, Colorado  (100.7 fm), Long Beach, California at 101.5, and in Pittsburgh at 107.3 fm. We are also available on the amfm247.com, Iheart,  and Spreaker, Catch us also on public broadcast TV, and on these channels on the AUN network: K03HY Channel 3, San Francisco, CA, KTVJ Channel 12, San Rafael/Marin/North Bay, KQRO Channel 45 San Jose/Silicon Valley, KUKR Channel 27 Santa Rosa, CA, KRDT Channel 23 Redding, CA, K11VZ Channel 11, Chico, CA, KKPM Channel 28, Sacramento/Chico, CA, Tell Alexa to play the program!

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Foreign Policy Update

WOMEN AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

In a February 7 statement to the press, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo talked about President Trump’s recent signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum promoting women’s global development and prosperity. The goal, according to Pomeo, is to reach 50 million women by 2025 by fostering economic empowerment, support of workforce development and women entrepreneurs and breaking down barriers to enable women to fully participate in the economy. He added: “We are proud to help launch the new Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative today, and look forward to continuing our work across the United States government, with partner governments and the private sector, to build upon these efforts.”  

VENEZUELA

Special Representative for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams updated the press at the Friday, February 8, press conference on the situation in Venezuela. He reported that in the last two weeks, since the democratically elected National Assembly declared Juan Guaido interim president of the country, the United States at 47 other countries, including 23 from Europe, have recognized Guaido as the legitimate interim leader of the country.

Instead of trying to accommodate, Abrams stated, Maduro has manipulated negotiations and tried to stall humanitarian aid, kept political prisoners in jail, abused detainees, and allowed the population to go without food and medicine. According to Abrams, the United States is
“…imposing visa restrictions and revoking the visas of members of the illegitimate constituent assembly.  This body has usurped many of the constitutional powers of the National Assembly, the legitimate National Assembly, and embodies Maduro’s destruction of democratic institutions.  While I cannot name names because visa information is protected, I can state that we will continue to take action against those destroying Venezuela’s democratic institutions.”

Venezuela, once a thriving economy, rich in natural resources, is now a failing state with hyperinflation. Over 5 million Venezuelans are expected to seek refuge out the country as refugees in 2019. In an attempt to help the starving people the United States is has pledge $20 million in humanitarian support and is moving food and medical aid to the border with the hope that it will be allowed in by former President Maduro’s armed forces.

About 90% of the country’s hospitals lack medical supplies. Venezuela also is experiencing power outages and water shortages in about 70% of the country’s hospitals. Crumbling infrastructure, according to the US Government, has disrupted water and sanitation services, and a collapsing health system has prompted outbreaks of previously eradicated diseases. The result is a regional outbreak of about 17,000 cases of measles with the majority in Venezuela.

IRAN

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Deputy State Department Spokesperson Palladino last Friday acknowledged that we have seen reports that Iran has attempted to launch another satellite into space. He said: “We continue to call upon the Iranian regime to cease immediately all activities that are inconsistent with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, including space vehicle launches.” Iran has pledged to continue its missile program despite international condemnation.

TURKEY

Asked to respond to complaints from Turkish President Erdogan that the U.S. has been too slow on the security zone, a State Department spokesperson said “The United States takes Turkey’s security concerns seriously, and we are actively engaging with Turkey on this matter.  And as President Trump just said, we’re working through the course of various discussions, including senior-level meetings…. and we’re trying to promote a stable and secure security relationship for northeast Syria as soon as possible.”  

Washington has consistently spoken about how to proceed safely with the withdrawal of American forces in northeast Syria while also stabilizing those areas previously liberated. The United States has repeatedly called for the Syrian Democratic Forces, including the Kurdish component of the SDF, not to engage militarily.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay


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Medicare for All: The Juncture of Politics and Health

The cost of medical care is an issue that is essential for almost all Americans. Unfortunately, rather than concentrate on viable and realistic solutions, far too many politicians have offered proposals which are neither practical nor affordable.

The concept of free care provided by the government is childlike in its simplicity, an adult version of a fairy tale.

A RAND study notes that “Care would not be free in a single-payer system—it would be paid for differently. Instead of paying insurance premiums, people would pay taxes, which would be collected by a government agency and used to pay for health care on behalf of the population... Many single-payer proposals, including Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” proposal, cover a comprehensive range of services with no or very low co-pays and deductibles. While common in many proposals , a single-payer system would not necessarily eliminate all out-of-pocket expenses. In fact, the current Medicare program, which some consider a form of single payer, has deductibles and co-pays.”

Betsy McCaughey Ross, who has intensively studied the issue, stressed in a New York Post editorial  that “…politicians would rather walk on hot coals than tell you what Medicare for All costs: a whopping $32 trillion over 10 years. To raise that, all taxpayers, not just the rich, would have to hand a gut-wrenching share of their paychecks to Uncle Sam, based on Congressional Budget Office revenue tables. A single guy earning $82,500 a year, and currently paying a 24 percent marginal rate, would be hit with a 60 percent tax rate ­instead. A couple reporting $165,000 in income would also see their marginal rate soar to 60 percent from 24 percent. No more dinners out or family trips. Goodbye to your standard of living. And to America’s current medical standard of care. Liberals want to keep the name Medicare but change everything else. The result will be stingy care for all.”

, New York State is considering establishing a statewide system of single payer health care or Medicare for All. Entitled the New York Health Act. It would be a one-state experiment of the proposal many Progressives advocate for the nation as whole.

Supporters / describe it: “The NY Health Act (A4738 / l is a universal single-payer plan that would expand and improve our current healthcare system for every New York resident: those on Medicare, those on Medicaid, those that are uninsured, those on Obamacare, the middle class, and more. No deductibles, no copays, no premiums.”

The idea is not new. It was originally introduced in 1992 by Assembly Health Chairman Richard Gottfried.  The legislation has passed the Assembly in each of the past four years and now has support in the Senate, which has a newly installed Democrat majority. The system would be financed through extensive additional taxes.  That’s going to place a significant burden on a state which is already losing population and business due in significant part to high taxes.

A state think tank, the Empire Center, is critical of the concept, for reasons that would be applicable to the nation as a whole, It’s analysis notes: “…the costs and risks of single-payer would be much greater, and the benefits much smaller, than its proponents claim. Sweeping and coercive even by international standards.

“Consider just a few of the ramifications:

  • A system that covers more people and gets rid of existing cost controls—without slashing provider fees—would unavoidably drive health-care spending up, not down.
  • Given the exorbitant tax hikes required, a significant fraction of New Yorkers would pay more for coverage than they do now, and many if not most of those people would be low- or middle-income.
  • Even if overall spending were kept stable, the switch to state-controlled prices would disrupt revenue flows for the entire health-care industry—representing almost one-fifth of the economy—with a destabilizing effect on access and quality.
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“Meanwhile, single-payer would put vastly more power and money into the hands of a state government notoriously prone to corruption and inefficiency. Health care would dominate Albany’s time and money to the exclusion of other priorities, such as education and infrastructure. Ironically, the push for single-payer comes at a time when New York’s uninsured rate has dropped to a historic low of 6 percent. Many of the 1.1 million who still lack coverage would qualify for free or subsidized coverage under existing government programs. This means the vast majority of the money, effort and disruption required to implement single-payer would be devoted to people who already have insurance—and who would be forced to change it whether they want to or not. State lawmakers looking to improve the health-care system should focus on measured, practical solutions targeted at clear-cut needs—and not the costly and risky radical surgery of single-payer.

The Report Concludes Monday

Photo: Pixabay