Month: February 2019

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Quick Analysis

Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2019 to 2028

What will it cost to deter a nuclear attack against the United States? The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is required by law to project the 10-year costs of nuclear forces every two years. This report contains CBO’s projections for the period from 2019 to 2028. The CBO summary of the report is provided below:

  • If carried out, the plans for nuclear forces delineated in the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) and the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) fiscal year 2019 budget requests would cost a total of $494 billion over the 2019–2028 period, for an average of just under $50 billion a year, CBO estimates.
  • The current 10-year total is 23 percent higher than CBO’s 2017 estimate of the 10-year costs of nuclear forces, $400 billion over the 2017–2026 period.
  • About $51 billion (or 55 percent) of the $94 billion increase in that total arises because the 10-year period covered by the current estimate begins and ends two years later than the period covered by the 2017 estimate. Thus, the period now includes two later (and more expensive) years of development in nuclear modernization programs. Also, costs in those two later years reflect 10 years of economywide inflation relative to the two years that drop out of the previous 10-year projection; that factor (in the absence of any changes to programs) accounts for about one-fourth of the $51 billion increase.
  • About $37 billion (or 39 percent) of the $94 billion increase is projected to occur from 2019 to 2026—the eight years included in both this estimate and the 2017 estimate. That increase stems mainly from new modernization programs and weapons and more concrete plans for nuclear command-and-control systems.
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Background

Nuclear weapons have been an important component of U.S. national security since they were developed during World War II. During the Cold War, nuclear forces were central to U.S. defense policy, and a large arsenal was built. Since that time, nuclear forces have figured less prominently in defense policy than conventional forces have, and the United States has not built any new nuclear weapons or delivery systems for many years.

The nation’s current nuclear forces are reaching the end of their service life. Those forces consist of submarines that launch ballistic missiles (SSBNs), land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bomber aircraft, shorter-range tactical aircraft carrying bombs, and the nuclear warheads that those delivery systems carry. Over the next two decades, essentially all of those components of nuclear forces will have to be refurbished or replaced with new systems if the United States is to continue fielding those capabilities.

In February 2018, the Department of Defense released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), a report that laid out the current Administration’s plans for nuclear strategy and force structure. To a large degree, the report represents a continuation of the nuclear posture of the previous Administration, including continuing all major modernization programs. However, the report also proposes the development of several new nuclear capabilities, which have been the subject of some debate. Over the coming years, the Congress will need to make decisions about what nuclear forces the United States should field in the future and thus about the extent to which the nation will pursue the Administration’s nuclear modernization plans.

The $432 billion would fund the following items:

• Strategic nuclear delivery systems and weapons ($234 billion). This category consists of DoD’s funding for strategic nuclear delivery systems (the three types of systems that can deliver long-range nuclear weapons—SSBNs, ICBMs, and long-range bombers), DOE’s funding for activities related to the warheads used by those systems, and DOE’s funding for the nuclear reactors that power SSBNs.

 • Tactical nuclear delivery systems and weapons ($15 billion). This category consists of DoD’s funding for tactical aircraft that can deliver nuclear weapons over shorter ranges; DOE’s funding for activities related to the warheads that those aircraft carry; funding for a new submarine-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM), as called for in the 2018 NPR; and funding for a warhead for that missile to carry.

• DOE’s nuclear weapons laboratories and their supporting activities ($106 billion). This category consists of funding for activities at nuclear weapons laboratories and production facilities that are not attributable directly to a specific type of warhead but that are related to maintaining current and future stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

• DoD’s command, control, communications, and early-warning systems ($77 billion). These systems allow operators to communicate with nuclear forces, issue commands that control their use, detect incoming attacks, and rule out false alarms. Projected annual budgets for all of those programs together rise steadily from $33.6 billion to $53.5 billion over the next decade, CBO estimates, increasing by roughly 60 percent between 2019 and 2028.

Photo of the Nuclear Triad: CBO

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Quick Analysis

Global Freedom Declines

Freedom House is an independent watchdog organization dedicated to the expansion of freedom and democracy around the world. The organization believes that “freedom is possible only in democratic political environments where governments are accountable to their own people; the rule of law prevails; and freedoms of expression, association, and belief, as well as respect for the rights of minorities and women, are guaranteed. More than 2.5 billion people live in countries that Freedom House designates ‘Not Free,’ more than a third of the globe’s population.” It has recently released its 2019 report on “Freedom in the World.” We present selected key excerpts:

In 2018, Freedom in the World recorded the 13th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. The reversal has spanned a variety of countries in every region, from long-standing democracies like the United States to consolidated authoritarian regimes like China and Russia. The overall losses are still shallow compared with the gains of the late 20th century, but the pattern is consistent and ominous. Democracy is in retreat.

In states that were already authoritarian, earning Not Free designations from Freedom House, governments have increasingly shed the thin façade of democratic practice that they established in previous decades, when international incentives and pressure for reform were stronger. More authoritarian powers are now banning opposition groups or jailing their leaders, dispensing with term limits, and tightening the screws on any independent media that remain. Meanwhile, many countries that democratized after the end of the Cold War have regressed in the face of rampant corruption, antiliberal populist movements, and breakdowns in the rule of law. Most troublingly, even long-standing democracies have been shaken by populist political forces that reject basic principles like the separation of powers and target minorities for discriminatory treatment.

Some light shined through these gathering clouds in 2018. Surprising improvements in individual countries—including Malaysia, Armenia, Ethiopia, Angola, and Ecuador—show that democracy has enduring appeal as a means of holding leaders accountable and creating the conditions for a better life…

THE WAVE OF DEMOCRATIZATION ROLLS BACK

Between 2005 and 2018, the share of Not Free countries rose to 26 percent, while the share of Free countries declined to 44 percent…

AN EBB TIDE IN ESTABLISHED DEMOCRACIES

With the post–Cold War transition period now over, another shift in the global order is challenging long-standing democracies, from within and without. A crisis of confidence in these societies has intensified, with many citizens expressing doubts that democracy still serves their interests. Of the 41 countries that were consistently ranked Free from 1985 to 2005, 22 have registered net score declines in the last five years.

The crisis is linked to a changing balance of power at the global level. The share of international power held by highly industrialized democracies is dwindling as the clout of China, India, and other newly industrialized economies increases. China’s rise is the most stunning, with GDP per capita increasing by 16 times from 1990 to 2017. The shift has been driven by a new phase of globalization that unlocked enormous wealth around the world. The distribution of benefits has been highly uneven, however, with most accruing to either the wealthiest on a global scale or to workers in industrializing countries. Low- and medium-skilled workers in long-industrialized democracies have gained relatively little from the expansion, as stable, well-paying jobs have been lost to a combination of foreign competition and technological change.

These developments have contributed to increasing anger and anxiety in Europe and the United States over economic inequality and loss of personal status. The center of the political spectrum, which dominated politics in the established democracies as the changes unfolded, failed to adequately address the disruption and dislocation they caused. This created political opportunities for new competitors on the left and right, who were able to cast existing elites as complicit in or benefiting from the erosion of citizens’ living standards and national traditions…

The gravity of the threat to global freedom requires the United States to shore up and expand its alliances with fellow democracies and deepen its own commitment to the values they share. Only a united front among the world’s democratic nations—and a defense of democracy as a universal right rather than the historical inheritance of a few Western societies—can roll back the world’s current authoritarian and antiliberal trends. By contrast, a withdrawal of the United States from global engagement on behalf of democracy, and a shift to transactional or mercenary relations with allies and rivals alike, will only accelerate the decline of democratic norms.

THE COSTS OF FALTERING LEADERSHIP

There should be no illusions about what the deterioration of established democracies could mean for the cause of freedom globally. Neither America nor its most powerful allies have ever been perfect models…and their commitment to democratic governance overseas has always competed with other priorities. But the post-Soviet wave of democratization did produce lasting gains and came in no small part because of support and encouragement from the United States and other leading democratic nations. Despite the regression in many newly democratized countries described above, two-thirds of the countries whose freedom status improved between 1988 and 2005 have maintained their new status to date…

For example, elections are being hollowed out as autocracies find ways to control their results while sustaining a veneer of competitive balloting. Polls in which the outcome is shaped by coercion, fraud, gerrymandering, or other manipulation are increasingly common. Freedom House’s indicators for elections have declined at twice the rate of overall score totals globally during the last three years.

In a related phenomenon, the principle of term limits for executives, which have a long provenance in democracies but spread around the world after the end of the Cold War, is weakening. According to Freedom House’s data, leaders in 34 countries have tried to revise term limits—and have been successful 31 times—since the 13-year global decline began. Attacks on term limits have been especially prominent in Africa, Latin America, and the former Soviet Union.

Freedom of expression has come under sustained attack, through both assaults on the press and encroachments on the speech rights of ordinary citizens. Freedom in the World data show freedom of expression declining each year over the last 13 years, with sharper drops since 2012. This year, press freedom scores fell in four out of six regions in the world. Flagrant violations, like the imprisonment of journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo for their investigative reporting in Myanmar, have become more widespread. Even more stark have been the declines in personal expression, as governments have cracked down on critical discussion among citizens, especially online. The explosion of criminal cases for “insulting the president” in Turkey—more than 20,000 investigations and 6,000 prosecutions in 2017 alone—is one of the most glaring examples of this global trend.

The offensive against freedom of expression is being supercharged by a new and more effective form of digital authoritarianism. As documented in Freedom House’s most recent Freedom on the Net. report, China is now exporting its model of comprehensive internet censorship and surveillance around the world, offering trainings, seminars, and study trips as well as advanced equipment that takes advantage of artificial intelligence and facial recognition technologies. As the internet takes on the role of a virtual public sphere, and as the cost of sophisticated surveillance declines, Beijing’s desire and capacity to spread totalitarian models of digitally enabled social control pose a major risk to democracy worldwide…

Most disturbingly, Freedom House’s global survey shows that ethnic cleansing is a growing trend. In 2005, Freedom in the World reduced the scores of just three countries for ethnic cleansing or other egregious efforts to alter the ethnic composition of their territory; this number has since grown to 11, and in some cases the scale or intensity of such activities has increased over time as well. In Syria and Myanmar, hundreds of thousands of civilians from certain ethnic and religious groups have been killed or displaced as world powers either fail to respond adequately or facilitate the violence. Russia’s occupation of Crimea has included targeted repression of Crimean Tatars and those who insist on maintaining their Ukrainian identity. China’s mass internment of Uighurs and other Muslims—with some 800,000 to 2 million people held arbitrarily in “reeducation” camps—can only be interpreted as a superpower’s attempt to annihilate the distinct identities of minority groups.

BREAKTHROUGHS AND MOVEMENTS FOR JUSTICE

Despite this grim global environment, positive breakthroughs in countries scattered all over the world during 2018 showed that the universal promise of democracy still holds power.

  • In Angola, new president João Lourenço took notable actions against corruption and impunity, reducing the outsized influence of his long-ruling predecessor’s family and granting the courts greater independence.
  • In Armenia, massive nonviolent demonstrations forced the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, the country’s leader since 2008, who had tried to evade term limits by moving from the presidency to the prime minister’s office. After snap elections in December, a new reformist majority in the parliament has pledged to promote transparency and accountability for corruption and abuse of office.
  • In Ecuador, President Lenín Moreno has defied expectations by breaking with the antidemocratic practices of former president Rafael Correa, including by adopting a more relaxed stance toward media criticism, barring those convicted of corruption from holding office, and passing a constitutional referendum that restored presidential term limits.
  • In Ethiopia, the monopolistic ruling party began to loosen its grip in response to three years of protests, installing a reform-minded prime minister who oversaw the lifting of a state of emergency, the release of political prisoners, and the creation of space for more public discussion of political issues.
  • In Malaysia, voters threw out disgraced prime minister Najib Razak and a political coalition that had governed since independence, clearing the way for a new government that quickly took steps to hold Najib and his family to account for a massive corruption scandal…
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While some progress has come in the form of sudden breakthroughs at the leadership level, more incremental societal change offers another reason for hope.

Even in a time of new threats to democracy, social movements around the world are expanding the scope of democratic inclusion. They are part of a multigenerational transformation in how the rights of women, of ethnic, sexual, and religious minorities, of migrants, and of people with disabilities are recognized and upheld in practice—not least in places where they were already constitutionally enshrined. Authoritarian and antiliberal actors fear these movements for justice and participation because they challenge unfair concentrations of status and power. The transformation may still be fragile and incomplete, but its underlying drive—to make good on the 20th century’s promise of universal human rights and democratic institutions—is profound.

In this sense, the current moment contains not only danger, but also opportunity for democracy. Those committed to human rights and democratic governance should not limit themselves to a wary defense of the status quo. Instead we should throw ourselves into projects intended to renew national and international orders, to make protections for human dignity even more just and more comprehensive, including for workers whose lives are disrupted by technological and economic change. Democracy requires continuous effort to thrive, and a constant willingness to broaden and deepen the application of its principles. The future of democracy depends on our ability to show that it is more than a set of bare-minimum defenses against the worst abuses of tyrants—it is a guarantee of the freedom to choose and live out one’s own destiny. We must demonstrate that the full promise of democracy can be realized, and recognize that no one else will do it for us.

For regional trends and the complete report, visit Freedom House’s website at https://freedomhouse.org/.

Photo: Pixabay

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Drastic Cuts for Sick 9/11 Responders and Survivors

This article was prepared by the law firm of Barasch & McGarry

More Than Half of the 10,000 WTC Victims Diagnosed with 9/11-Related Cancers Will now get 50% to 70% Less Compensation.

Thousands of people who breathed in the World Trade Center toxic dust have been getting sick at alarming rates because of their exposure to deadly World Trade Center toxins. The Victim Compensation Fund (VCF), which has been providing financial help to thousands of injured and ill 9/11 responders and survivors, recently announced cuts in pending claims of 50%, and cuts in future claims of up to 70%. This means that thousands of people in the 9/11 community, who live in every state, will not get the full compensation they were expecting and deserve. Worse still, if Congress does not act, thousands more who are diagnosed with 9/11 related cancers will be denied any compensation since the VCF is set to expire at the end of 2020.

And, many who have received awards will also be shut out if and when they are found disabled, or diagnosed with new illnesses in the future. These drastic cuts will also affect those who pass away from their WTC-linked illnesses.

Tens of thousands are being penalized merely because their illnesses were diagnosed later than an arbitrary date set by the VCF, or because it took the WTC Health Program months to certify their illnesses.

Congress and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) simply didn’t anticipate the explosion of cancers and deaths caused by the WTC toxins. And, as a result, they didn’t set aside sufficient funds.

We have not forgotten that it was the Federal Government that assured us just days after the attacks that the “air was safe to breathe”. Federal and local officials pushed aggressively to reopen the financial markets, get businesses back up and running, and eventually provided incentives for people to move into the area.

My law firm’s client NYPD James Zadroga’s autopsyproved that it was anything but “safe”. When he died of pulmonary fibrosis in 2006, an autopsy revealed ground glass, asbestos, chromium, lead, and benzene – all known carcinogens – in his lung tissue. That was the evidence that the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and the C.D.C. needed to link 68 cancers and a host of respiratory illnesses to the WTC toxic dust.

Now, those very Americans who believed the Government are having the rug pulled out from under them yet again with this recent devastating news. Cancer certainly won’t stop afflicting the 9/11 community any time soon, and especially not on its current expiration date of December 18, 2020. We won’t stop fighting until those who receive reduced awards are made whole, and those who get sick in the future are allowed to make a claim. No one should be denied full benefits!

The fund must be extended.

All of us in the 9/11 community can help. Please tell your representatives in Washington to vote in favor of the extension. Visit the Citizens for the Extension of the Zadroga Act website to find out if your Member of Congress is planning to support injured 9/11 Responders and Survivors, and is planning to be a co-sponsor of the legislation to fully fund and extend the VCF. If they are, thank them for supporting 9/11 responders and survivors. If not, tell them that you are one of their constituents and you need them to sign on.

Injured 9/11 responders, survivors and their families do not need speeches, they need action. “Remembering 9/11” should be more than a bumper sticker.

Here are the sobering statistics:

  • Over 10,000 people have now had their cancers certified as 9/11-illnesses, and
  • Over 2,000 people in the 9/11 community have died from their WTC illnesses.
  • The 9/11 community has a 19 -32 percent increased risk of cancer. Thousands more have developed permanent respiratory illnesses.
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Nearly 100,000 people have signed up with the health program and it has been providing free health care to those who need it. So far the VCF has awarded over $5 billion to more than 25,000 people.

The stakes are enormous. Cancer doesn’t just kill people. It can also bankrupt families. A cancer diagnosis often results in substantial costs for health care and lost wages, as well as physical and emotional hardships that are difficult for any individual or family to handle even under the best of circumstances.  

All those who were present are at risk. I urge everyone who was exposed to the WTC toxins to register with the health program which is in all 50 states. Those who are certified with physical illnesses, they are eligible to receive compensation from the VCF.  

Both registrations should be done as soon as possible. There are long backlogs to get into the health program and the VCF is set to close next year.

The Most Common Cancers are:

  • Skin cancer (basal, squamous, and melanoma),
  • prostate cancer,
  • breast cancer, incl. male!
  • lung cancer,
  • thyroid cancer,
  • blood cancers (lymphoma and leukemia),
  • colon cancer, and
  • kidney cancer.


The PH level of the toxic dust was the same as Drano.  Therefore, go for a full body skin exam.

There is some good news: Claimants don’t waive their future legal rights by applying now for a minor respiratory illness such as Gerd or sinusitis, asthma and sleep apnea. You can always amend your claim should, God forbid, you come down with another respiratory illness or cancer.

The VCF and the WTC Health Program aren’t just for First Responders: Sanitation workers, downtown teachers and students, construction workers, debris removal workers, downtown residents and office workers are all eligible.

Note: The tragic events of 9/11/01 occurred over 17 years ago, but a vast number of firefighters, police, emergency workers and others who lived or worked in the area of the World Trade Center continue to suffer and die from the attack. New York Analysis of Policy and Government editor-in-chief Frank Vernuccio was appointed by Governor George Pataki to lead the Manhattan/Bronx Workers Compensation Board shortly after, and saw first-hand not only the aftereffects in the months following, but also the continued suffering as diseases manifested themselves years after. Serious Maladies continue to arise in those who were present.

Photo: Pixabay

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CAN THE 25TH AMENDMENT BE USED TO REMOVE PRESIDENT TRUMP?

This article was written by the distinguished retired judge, John H. Wilson

Like any author seeking to generate interest in his new book, former acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe is making the rounds of talk shows.  Famously fired from the FBI for a “lack of candor,” Mr. McCabe has claimed in a recent interview with 60 Minutes that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was “recruiting Cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove President Donald Trump from office.”

Deputy AG Rosenstein has repeatedly denied these allegations.  However, as far back as last September, it was alleged that Mr. Rosenstein offered to “wear a wire” and record his conversations with President Trump while at the same time, recruiting Cabinet Members to support a move to have the President declared unfit for office.    In his most recent comments to 60 Minutes, Mr. McCabe states that Mr. Rosenstein had the support of both the then-Attorney General and the then-Director of Homeland Security. 

These allegations have been described as an attempt at a “coup d’etat,” most notably by renowned attorney Alan Dershowitz.  But before we get too excited about this evidence for the existence of a “deep state,” it would be beneficial to examine the language of the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution.

The idea of presidential succession in the event of the incapacity of the President is actually a relatively recent development in American history.  Under Article II, Section 1, clause 6 of the US Constitution, “in case of removal of the President from office, or of his death, resignation, or inability to discharge the powers and duties of the said office, the same shall devolve on the Vice President.”  In 1967, after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, there arose a concern that the Constitution did not provide for any method to be followed in the event that the President was deemed to be incapacitated.  The 25th Amendment was ratified to answer this concern.

Under Article 1 of the Amendment, “In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.”  Section 2 gives the President the authority to nominate a Vice President, subject to a majority vote of both houses of the Congress.  Section 3 allows the President to notify both the President Pro Temp of the Senate and the Speaker of the House that he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” and provides for the Vice President to serve as an “Acting President” Your doctor will be able to advise you order cheap cialis out of your problem once and for all. We all know that sales cialis one aspect impact of medications is sleeplessness. Drugs used for the treatment cost of viagra pills include: Benzodiazepine-based sedatives Non-benzodiazepine medications like eszopiclone (Lunesta), zaleplon (Sonata), and zolpidem (Ambien) Melatonin supplements if it is caused by different factors that include heart disease, obesity, etc. Slipping might be the result of go now cialis prescription over oiling. until such time as the President is recovered. https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv

Section 3 of the 25th Amendment was invoked “on July 13, 1985, when President Ronald Reagan sent a letter directing then-Vice President George H.W. Bush to perform his duties while the president underwent a surgery to remove cancerous polyps from his colon. Bush was acting president from 11:28 a.m. when Reagan was given general anesthesia to 7:22 p.m. when Reagan sent another letter to members of the Senate and resumed his powers.”

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is the one Mr. Rosenstein is alleged to have sought to invoke.  It reads “Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.”  

There then follows a complicated series of steps and countermoves to be taken after the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet stage their coup.  The President is entitled to contradict the assertion that he is unfit for office, but the Vice President and his accomplices may repeat their position that the President is unable to discharge his duties, at which point, Congress must decide the issue by a two-thirds vote of both houses.

Despite the serious nature of Mr. McCabe’s allegations, there is one crucial factor missing from the “Rosenstein plot” – the participation of Vice President Mike Pence.  At all pertinent points, Section 4 of the 25th Amendment states that “the Vice President AND a majority” of the Cabinet may act.  In a recent interview with the Vice President, not only does he deny any talks about the 25th Amendment with anyone, he asked the interviewer “why would we be?”

Thus, even if we are to believe that the Deputy Director of the FBI had discussed invoking the 25th Amendment with two Cabinet members, both of whom agreed with the idea, unless Mr. Rosenstein had the support of Vice President Mike Pence, this nascent coup d’etat was nothing more than a stillbirth, living only in the imagination of President Trump’s enemies and detractors.

Photo: Andrew McCabe (FBI official photo)

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Foreign Policy Update

ARCTIC

In response to a press conference question on US policy in the Arctic, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stated that the “Arctic is a space where there should be freedom of navigation; there should be low tension; there should be security; there should be rule of law; there should be transparency about what’s taking place.”

In recent years the Russian military has become heavily involved in the Arctic region, which represents a potential threat to the United States, its allies, and maritime commerce. In addition to the world’s only nuclear heavy icebreakers, the Russians have developed 10 military air bases above the Arctic Circle. Pompeo added that Washington is working with other democracies to ensure that malevolent powers do not create new or expanded problems in the region which could impact the rest of the world.

In recognition of the Arctic challenges posed by Russia, and to some extend China, the United States is updating its US Coast Guard’s (USCG) aging icebreaker. China operates two heavy icebreakers. While the USCG has two heavy, non-nuclear icebreakers; only one is operational. Both are beyond their expected 30-year service limit. There is a critical need to secure US interests in the region and maritime commerce.

For the first time in 40 years the United States is building a new heavy ice breaker. Congress recently restored $650 million in funding for the ship-building program to begin replacing the Polar Star, the United States’ only working heavy icebreaker. Congress also allotted $20 million in funds to begin purchasing materials for a 2nd icebreaker, with a goal of building a total of six, three of which are scheduled to be heavy ice breakers. In comparison, Russia operates the world’s only 2 nuclear heavy icebreakers along with 38 non-nuclear heavy icebreakers.

Moscow has 11 additional ships in production making it the dominant force in the region. When complete Russia will be operating 51 icebreakers in the mineral- and oil-rich Arctic environment. This raises additional concerns in the West if Arctic ice continues to melt and opens a year-round passage which military ships from China and eastern Russia could traverse to quickly reach the US East coast and Western Europe.

IRAN

The greatest security challenge in the Middle East is Iran, according to Secretary of State Pompeo. In a press conference in Iceland last week he spoke about how the US and its allies have vanquished ISIS and eliminated the caliphate in Syria. He added that this will allow Washington to withdraw troops but doesn’t end the mission. “We fight ISIS on multiple continents today, but our tactics will change, and they’ll continue to change, and we will adapt just as ISIS adapts. We get the threat from radical Islamic terrorism. President Trump understands this intently. We’re determined to fight them where we find them and to reduce the risk to not only the United States but to our allies,” he said.

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SUDAN

On February 20, 2019, the governments of the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement concerning the escalating conflict in South Sudan, which is in breach of the December 2017 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and the September 2018 revitalized peace agreement.

The statement notes that recently thousands of South Sudanese have been displaced and fled across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo to escape the violence. It also calls on all parties involved, the Government of South Sudan, the SPLM-IO, and the National Salvation Front to end the violence and allow unrestricted access to Yei and the surrounding area for the UN Mission in South Sudan, the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism, and other humanitarian groups.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay


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The Left’s Success May Be It’s Undoing

The success Progressives have enjoyed on several fronts may be their undoing. 2019 may, despite of or even because of those successes, prove to be the start of the reversal of the left-wing paradigm.

The Left has dominated the media’s coverage of America’s economic picture. However, despite dire predictions of economic disaster following President Trump’s election in 2016, the U.S. economy has surged ahead, freed of the high taxes, excess regulations, and timid trade policies of the Obama Administration.  Stocks posted their best January in thirty years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued an excellent January jobs report, indicating that jobs, particularly those in the manufacturing sector, have rebounded. Additionally, thanks to a rejection of restrictions, The U.S. has become a net exporter of energy, further shoring up the financial picture.

The Democrat’s overwhelming obsession with abortion without limits is garnering increased opposition.  New York State adopted a measure which essentially justifies infanticide, allowing the destruction of a fully formed, completely viable baby up to the moment of birth. Even while celebrating the victory, many observers realized that the extreme nature of the new law would strengthen opposition to the abortion without limits cause. Virginia attempted to pass a similar piece of legislation, but failed to do so.

In New Jersey, the LGBTQ movement, a bastion of the Progressive movement, has similarly overreached.  ABC reports that “New Jersey has become the second state in the nation after California to pass a law requiring schools to teach LGBT history in their classrooms. Under the new measure, public schools must include lessons about the political, economic and social contributions of the LGBT community.” De-emphasizing the teaching of U.S. history which the educational establishment has done, while increasing concentration on this topic may result in substantial blowback.

Two openly anti-Israel Progressives, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, took their place in Congress this year. Combined with other Democrats( such as Keith Ellison who has served as vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee) they have essentially mainstreamed the left’s anti-Semitism. A crucial constituency of the Democrat Party, Jewish voters may well become increasingly alienated. Catholics, too are becoming a target of key Democrats. Senators It helps considerably in increasing the sperm http://downtownsault.org/downtown/nightlife/zims/ viagra samples count in males. Still, there are getting viagra products that even though can’t enlarged, still can make your life more enjoyable. With more blood in sildenafil delivery your penis, you can enjoy a long lasting sensual pleasure during the bedtime activity. The blood flow in the region of male body. http://downtownsault.org/about/about-the-dda/ purchase generic levitra Kamala Harris (D-CA) Diane Feinstein (D-CA)  and Mazie Hirono (D-HI) have essentially questioned the fitness of practicing Catholics to serve on the bench. 

It has long been a Democrat Party mantra that claims of voter fraud have been untrue, levied essentially as a means to suppress leftist voting blocks, a position the media generally favors. But on January 25, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton reported that “…about 95,000 individuals identified by the Department of Public Safety as non-U.S. citizens have a matching voter registration record in Texas, and roughly 58,000 of them have voted in one or more Texas elections…” Judicial Watch reports that “The integrity of our elections is under systematic assault by leftist activists and politicians whose objective is clearly to manipulate the elections for their own gain… And as Judicial Watch uncovers more and more evidence of the breadth and scale of this effort, it is becoming clear that the objective of what we are seeing is to get leftist candidates elected.”

The left’s advocacy of open borders, its’ attempts to downplay the “caravans” and its staunch opposition to border safeguards is beginning to wear thin in the face of facts. A dramatic combination of crime, cost, health, and population data may begin to convince the U.S. population that illegal immigration is presenting a dangerous and unaffordable challenge to the nation.

As socialism becomes more dominant in the Democratic Party and a key part of the Progressive identity, the manifest failures and dangers of that political philosophy become more evident.  Despite the clear disasters caused by the implementation of socialism throughout the world, American socialists continue to push the idea.  The latest example of how socialism ruins a nation, Venezuela, may finally awake the public to how bad an idea it really is.

Photo: Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (DNC Photo)

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Quick Analysis

Unrealistic Energy Policies

Many Americans are shivering from the latest arctic blast of frigid weather. At least, they can warm up in their homes and offices.  Going forward, however, they, and others throughout the world, may not have that option if climate extremists have their way.

The latest push comes, ironically, at a time when NASA statistics indicate that there has been a two-year cooling period. Investors.com notes that Aaron Brown, in a Real Clear Markets analysis of NASA  data indicates that for the past two years, the Earth has actually cooled. “The 2016-2018 Big Chill was composed of two Little chills, the biggest five months drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average.“

The climate change debate will rage on, but the need for sufficient energy to heat homes, provide electricity, and keep the economy moving is a constant. Despite that, many politicians have opted for unrealistic energy policies.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has successfully pushed for the closing of one of the state’s nuclear power plants, as well as stopping a major gas pipeline.  He is a staunch opponent of fracking. Politico reports that “Both Con Edison and National Grid [two NY State energy companies] say they may have to turn away new natural gas customers if new pipelines aren’t built…” The New York Post reports that “Con Ed notified regulators that, come March 15, it won’t accept new gas customers in most of Westchester, thanks to supply shortages. National Grid has been issuing similar warnings. New-customer cutoffs in the city may be just around the corner. With no practical replacement fuel for heating, this will throttle residential and commercial growth…Cuomo hasn’t officially banned new pipelines; his staff just doesn’t OK very many, often citing lame excuses for nixing them. Team Cuomo reportedly has urged Con Ed to find alternatives to pipelines, and Cuomo himself has been pushing for a shift away from allfossil-fuel energy sources. Which threatens big trouble for new would-be customers — residential or commercial.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that “In 2017, about 4,034 billion kilowatthours (kWh) (or 4.03 trillion kWh) of electricity were generated at utility-scale facilities in the United States. About 63% of this electricity generation was from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases). About 20% was from nuclear energy, and about 17% was from renewable energy sources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that an additional 24 billion kWh of electricity generation was from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems in 2017.

There is no realistic expectation that the 17% renewable energy sources could expand to accommodate the other 83% of current energy needs, and the demand for power continues to grow.

While the pollution caused by carbon-based energy is frequently discussed, other forms of energy production have their own drawbacks. Opposition to nuclear power is well-publicized, but wind and solar pose daunting problems, as well.

The Wildlife Society Bulletin estimates that 888,000 bat and 573,000 bird fatalities/year (including 83,000 raptor fatalities) at 51,630 megawatt (MW) of installed wind-energy capacity occurred in the United States in 2012.

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According to the Brookings Institute, “Adding up the net energy cost and the net capacity cost of the five low-carbon alternatives, far and away the most expensive is solar. It costs almost 19 cents more per KWH than power from the coal or gas plants that it displaces. Wind power is the second most expensive. It costs nearly 6 cents more per KWH.

“To place these additional costs in context, the average cost of electricity to U.S. consumers in 2012 was 9.84 cents per KWH, including the cost of transmission and distribution of electricity. This means a new wind plant could at least cost 50 percent more per KWH to produce electricity, and a new solar plant at least 200 percent more per KWH, than using coal and gas technologies.”

The Energy Reality Project describes the challenges that would be encountered in moving to more emphasis on solar and wind: to generate America’s baseload electric power with a 50 / 50 mix of wind and solar farmsit would take a sufficient amount of land to cover land area totaling the size of Indiana. It would cost over $18 Trillion with Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) farms in the southwest deserts, on parcels of land totaling the area of West Virginia.

“Tad W. Patzek, PhD, Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at the University of Texas at Austin, and David Pimentel, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Cornell University stated … in Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences: “We want to be very clear: solar cells, wind turbines, and biomass-for-energy plantations can never replace even a small fraction of the highly reliable, 24-hours-a-day, 365-days-a-year, nuclear, fossil, and hydroelectric power stations. Claims to the contrary are popular, but irresponsible…”

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On Infanticide

On February 7, this publication presented a legal analysis (by guest contributor retired judge John H. Wilson, who served on the New York State bench) of a new state law that allows abortion up to the moment of birth, essentially a legalization of infanticide. In response to the extraordinary debate this measure has produced, we now provide an analysis from another guest contributor, retired U.S. Army chaplain Don Zapsic, Jr.

New York State, which now has, in addition to a Democrat governor, a solid Democrat majority in both houses of its legislature, passed Senate Bill S2796, more commonly recognized as the cleverly labeled, Reproductive Health Act or RHA, which shockingly allows abortion right up until the actual moment before birth.  

Several interests gained from the measure:  

  • Planned Parenthood for expanding their profit margins.
  • Closet racists who decimate minority populations through the sanctioning of abortion on demand. In 2012, African-American abortions in New York City alone totaled 31,328 versus 24,758 live births (CNSnews.com/Feb., 2014).  
  • Irresponsible males who will now have more time to pressure the women in their lives to abort away financial liabilities associated with unintended consequences of sexual exploitation.
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 By the way, hats off to whoever ultimately decided to tint the Freedom Tower pink. Great idea to highlight such a structure raised out of the ashes of Ground Zero to commemorate the deaths of thousands of innocents. Such an ironic turning of the tables!   

 To those who have designs on facilitating the untimely demise of the mentally challenged and elderly who consume disproportionate amounts of medical care and social services: You are one step closer to your goal. Yes, you have a dream!

I served as a U.S. Army chaplain:  to all members of the clergy who allow politics to hijack their ministry: May sleeping consciences lie along with congregations that follow you more than God.

 To any who may doubt the sincerity of my stated convictions, by all means, please do so. The passing of the ‘so-called’ Reproductive Health Act is neither about the physical and psychological well-being of the mother or the physical viability of the child. He or she always ends up dead in very barbaric fashion. RHA is simply a quantum leap to the next level of systematic infanticide. It is a legislative nightmare that almost defies description.

I respectfully submit the following:

The term “Planned Parenthood” is an oxymoron. Orchestrating the death of an unborn family member has precious little to do with planning and more to do with population control.  Racism as well as its cousin sexism are clearly forms of discrimination. Abortion on demand is not deeply concerned about why a child is terminated even if it is based on something as disturbing as wanting a boy instead of a little girl. Nor are the purveyors of abortion particularly troubled by any disproportionate impact upon those belonging to a lower socio-economic class. It is no coincidence that Planned Parenthood is so well represented in poorer neighborhoods.

A reckless and irresponsible male seeking to mate should not be producing any child that he is unable and/or unwilling to father into adulthood. Then there is the reference to the Freedom Tower which was intended to be a structural symbol of the triumph of the human spirit out of the ash heap. Not the triumph of the ash heap over the human spirit.

On playing God, no one has the right to delegate life-and-death authority over any innocent human being. Children are a gift and a loan from the Almighty. Only He, and He alone, determines when their time on earth is done. The RHA though legal, has no moral standing before the One who ultimately judges every living soul. To presume otherwise is not only arrogant, but also ignorant.

The remark about the mentally challenged and elderly in poor health is grounded in the sanctity of human life. The institutional devaluation and consequent degradation of any human being is a threat to all human beings. Death industry advocates realize that another hurdle has been cleared with the passing of the Reproductive Health Act. A bill designed to literally cut back the roster of those who impose the greatest financial burdens upon existing social programs.

My reference to the clergy is a tongue-in-cheek reference towards religious practitioners who use God as a punchline in the pulpit. Spiritually bankrupt themselves; they have way too much influence largely based upon their elevated status, higher education, and an uncanny ability to manufacture displays of piety when suiting their purposes. They are truly “wolves in sheep’s clothing” who advocate for abortion whenever expedient to do so.

Last but not least is the message to expectant mothers struggling with unwanted pregnancies. These vulnerable women and their unborn children require and deserve our love and support; not condemnation and judgment. Equally important, they need to understand that those who wish to sweep away the unborn from their bodies are not champions of women’s rights, but the worst sort of child abusers. They may have the legal right as conveyed by rogue actions of state government; however, there is no moral justification for their lethal activities.

Four days after the twin towers fell, I worked twelve-hour shifts at Ground Zero with the NY Army National Guard and was blessed to do so. The outpouring of love and devotion on the part of rescue and recovery teams along with a host of support personnel was a sight to behold.  They made incredible sacrifices just to provide closure to families who desperately needed confirmation that their loved ones had indeed passed. It was a defining moment just like the passing of the Reproductive Health Act is now a defining moment for New Yorkers. Don’t let the bill define you. Embrace your unborn; cherish your children; raise healthy families. God bless America. America bless God.       

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Quick Analysis

Repeating History’s Mistakes

The paradigm has shifted in western politics, and not for the better.

Since the end of the Second World War, most nations in what has been known as “the Free World” had no tolerance for the use of physical force or overt bias against individuals because of their religious beliefs.  While disputes were often harsh and bitter, it was the general opinion that accepting the results of elections was an unquestioned good practice.

However, in 2016, both in the United States and the United Kingdom, the results of free and fair elections have been challenged by elites who are bitter about losing and are doing everything possible to ignore the will of the voters.  In America, that means delegitimizing the Trump Administration.  There have been violent demonstrations, and acts of violence against those identifying as supporters of the President. In Great Britain, where some Tory politicians have joined with their left-wing rivals in a grand alliance of the elites, it involves trying to ignore the demands of the British people to leave the European Union.

Two key factors have dramatically altered the dynamic towards democracy that occurred after the Second World War.  It has been credibly argued that they are directly related.

Despite the potential for greater democratization of political discussion resulting from widespread use of the internet, the command of that vast medium by those with leftist perspectives and their continual exclusion of those that disagree with them represents the most visible rise of the elites, a counter-revolution of sorts against what had been the increase in influence of the common man or woman.

Throughout history, the possession of power by elites, whether in the guise of emperors, monarchs, aristocrats or dictators has been the norm, not the exception.

 That changed in the New World with the rise of the United States.  The French Revolution did not yield a similar result, but gradually, some European nations achieved a lesser but still salutary level of freedom.

The tide turned against personal liberty with the rise of Communism in Russia, Fascism in Italy, Nazism in Germany, and imperialism in Japan. Allied victory in World War II allowed all of the Axis Powers but Russia (the USSR was originally allied with Hitler but switched sides when Germany attacked it) to again tread the path of democratization.

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The tide is, worryingly, turning again.  The New Left, intolerant of dissent, guided by those who feel morally superior and possessing sufficient power to heavily influence key institutions such as the media, education and other essential levers, have, in essence, initiated a counterrevolution against democracy.

There are two wings to the New Left. 

The ideologues, some of whom are young and with an insufficient comprehension of the evils of centralized control, express their beliefs through strident, inaccurate and often thoroughly illogical statements, often accompanied by violence or the threat thereof. Many have picked up their inclinations as a result of a politically biased, left-leaning education, propped up by the entertainment industry (which is now partially financed by Chinese investors.)

Ignorance plays a key role in their political orientation. Listen to a press conference with their standard-bearers, such as newly elected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  One can argue about her political philosophy, but her staggering lack of logical thinking and her blithe disregard of facts is beyond question.

Ignorance is apparently no barrier to the progress of the careers of the New Left.  Consider “Beto” O’Rourke, widely touted as a potential Democratic Party candidate for president in 2020. CNN says of the young Congressman:

“There’s zero question as to who the buzziest candidate — or potential candidate — in the 2020 Democratic presidential race is. It’s Beto O’Rourke. And it’s not close.”  However, CNN goes on to note: “But for all the excitement … there’s still a whole lot that people don’t know about him. And more importantly, a lot that O’Rourke doesn’t know. That fuzzy knowledge was on awkward display in a lengthy…interview in El Paso…The answer to every policy question can’t simply be, “Man, I don’t know. We are going to have to talk to everyday Americans and then roll our sleeves up and get something done for the country.”

The second wing is a historically more familiar group.  Where once control was wielded by those with ties to royalty, the “nobility” of the 21st century gains its strength from dominant positions in key areas or through the sheer power of their purse. Despite their acquisition of their wealth through capitalism, they seek to institutionalize control through the centralization of authority, a hallmark of socialism, with themselves at the helm, either publicly or behind the scene.

The rise of socialism, just another excuse for centralized control, will prove disastrous, economically and in terms of human rights, if successful. Recognizing that reality is the first step in preventing it from occurring.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Marginalization of Non-Progressive Thought

We are pleased to present this guest editorial from U.S. Army Chaplain Don Zapsic (ret.)

The marginalization of conservatism on the public square is a stubborn reality in post-Christian America. The impact of this chilling trend upon political and religious thought often emanates from cultural institutions inspired by the radical left. Churches are no exception as evidenced by the avocation of theological liberalism ever-seeking to co-opt the sacred for the proliferation of the secular agenda. The impact of this unholy union is further facilitated by an all-too-eager mainstream media that is essentially the mouthpiece, megaphone, and PR department of all things liberal.

A poignant example of a coordinated action by multiple arms of the radical left intended to stymie conservative religious and political dissent is featured in the now infamous “Covington boys” incident. Enter in Father Edward Beck, CNN commentator on religion who had the following to say about MAGA hats in relation to Catholicism, “MAGA hats have become political code for an agenda that is often in opposition with the teachings of the Roman Catholic Church (CNN opinion piece).” Some of the political code referenced by the priest deals with 1) abortion- President Trump identifies as pro-life as does the Catholic Church 2) Immigration- opposed on the right based upon a national security and economic crisis of epic proportions 3) climate change– radical left dog whistle for an oppressive carbon tax and 4) inequitable distribution of the world’s resources … a.k.a. Marxism.

Another prominent commentator on religion by the name of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger debunked the liberation theology that Father Beck sympathizes with, “because of Marxist principles and its association with political movements (U.S. Catholic October 2014 edition).” I favor Cardinal Ratzinger’s assessment of social justice since Marxism has a poor track record when it comes to respecting individual property rights as well as restricting freedom of religious expression. So what could the radical left have in common with a Roman Catholic priest? Both are deeply rooted and committed to liberal thought and practice regardless of whatever else they may otherwise profess allegiance to.

Lest I should fall prey to the folly of operating as some kind of unexamined political hack, my religious legitimacy for writing this article as an ordained minister extends no further than the biblical principles that I seek to promote. On the political front, I support capitalism despite its shortcomings and abuses due to its tried and proven capacity for uplifting the human condition. I also support America’s representative form of government because of the freedom and liberties it affords to those it seeks to represent. Neither the economic theory nor political philosophy just cited is above the rule of law or God’s Word. The fact that I spent five years obtaining a Master of Divinity degree; served a two-year stint in the pastorate; and twenty-four more years of military service in the Army Chaplaincy does not negate the readers responsibility to verify and validate the contents of this article. The doctrinaire liberal actively resists the notion that Scripture alone is the basis for truth in many cases elevating human reason above the authority of Scripture.

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It is fair then to assert that liberalism is a religion in, and of itself (at least in matters dealing with competing interests that seek to contradict the liberal mindset). The government according to the radical left is regarded as the Higher Power in perpetual acquisition of perpetual power. God in this political and religious realm is regarded more as a figurehead much like the queen or king of a debunked kingdom. Liberalism in its various manifestations champions change as its cornerstone doctrine. When change for the sake of change is the primary motivator, even an abject failure provides yet another opportunity for change along with further government expansion. The technical name of this manmade religion is “secular humanism” whereby man, and not God, “is the measure of all things (Protagoras of Abdera).” It should come as no shock that marginalization is a logical response to any competing interest viewed as trying to impose arbitrary truth upon such an unfettered mindset.        

The characterization of conservative political and religious marginalization in the public square is more of an indictment on the right than on the radical left. To lose “One Nation under God” over many decades suggests more of a controlled retreat than an outright coup. A ‘controlled retreat’ being a military concept describing two lines of defense leapfrogging backwards as one line covers the backsides of the other line of retreat. Unlike liberals, modern day political conservatives view the Constitution as the nation’s legal gold standard and yet historically lack the stamina and force of conviction to adequately defend it. Conservative Christians on-the-hand have fared little better than their political counterparts seeing church attendance slip coupled with record-high church closures. Lest the liberals get too proud of their many disruptions, consider the following proverb, “Any donkey can kick down the barnyard door, but it takes a carpenter to build one.”

On a more contemporary note, Father Beck and I would inevitably disagree on a variety of fronts, but we are on the same page when it comes to recognizing the MAGA hat as something more than just a red, four-lettered head covering. To Beck it symbolizes much of what is currently wrong with our great country. To me, it is progressively becoming a symbol of incremental marginalization of conservative political and religious free speech on the public square. Since when is wearing a MAGA hat at a right-to-life rally justification for radical left recrimination against a group of civic-minded teenagers? You just can’t make this stuff up!

It is important to note that the retreat of conservative political and religious influence on public platforms across America is mostly self-inflicted. If this were not the case, conservatives by-and-large would be just one big unhappy family of victims utterly powerless in the face of a relentless, liberal, change machine. Principled change must begin at the margins of public discourse and not left to mainstream politicians, clergy, and media operatives to do the heavy lifting for the rest of us. Only then, will high school students be able to safely wear the hat of their choosing in our nation’s capital without fear of being berated and threatened by physically-grown people who should know better.     

Illustration: Pixabay