Month: November 2018

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Probing Mars

November of 2018 promises to bring far more than just the start of the Christmas season.

On November 26, NASA’s  InSight spacecraft is expected to touchdown on the Elysium Planitia section of Mars (sometimes called the planet’s “biggest parking lot”) for an unprecedented exploration of the Red Planet. “InSight” is short for Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport.

According to NASA, the Mars lander is “designed to give the Red Planet its first thorough checkup since it formed 4.5 billion years ago. It is the first outer space robotic explorer to study in-depth the ‘inner space’ of Mars: its crust, mantle, and core.”

The InSight Mars lander has two key science objectives:

Formation & Evolution: Understand the formation and evolution of terrestrial planets through investigation of the interior structure and processes of Mars.

Tectonic Activity: Determine the present level of tectonic activity and meteorite impact rate on Mars.

Past Mars missions have investigated the surface history of the Red Planet by examining features like canyons, volcanoes, rocks and soil. However, signatures of the planet’s formation can only be found by sensing and studying its “vital signs” far below the surface. NASA notes that The mission can open a window into the “inner space” of Mars, because Its instruments peer deeper than ever into the Martian subsurface, seeking the signatures of the processes that shaped the rocky planets of the inner Solar System, more than four billion years ago. InSight’s findings are expected to shed light on the formation of Mars, Earth, and even rocky exoplanets.

In comparison to the other terrestrial planets, Mars is neither too big nor too small. This means that it preserves the record of its formation and can give us insight into how the terrestrial planets formed. It is the perfect laboratory from which to study the formation and evolution of rocky planets. Scientists know that Mars has low levels of geological activity. But a lander like InSight can also reveal just how active Mars really is.
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The mission’s interplanetary journey began last May, when an Atlas V-401 rocket blasted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base. The mission is expected to last for about 728 Earth days.

According to the U.S. space agency, “InSight will teach us about the interior of planets like our own. The mission team hopes that by studying the deep interior of Mars, we can learn how other rocky worlds, including Earth and the Moon, formed. Our home planet and Mars were molded from the same primordial stuff more than 4.5 billion years ago but then became quite different. Why didn’t they share the same fate? When it comes to rocky planets, we’ve only studied one in detail: Earth. By comparing Earth’s interior to that of Mars, InSight’s team members hope to better understand our solar system. What they learn might even aid the search for Earth-like exoplanets, narrowing down which ones might be able to support life. So while InSight is a Mars mission, it’s also much more than a Mars mission.”

The Atlas rocket that started InSight’s journey also launched a separate NASA technology experiment: two mini-spacecraft called Mars Cube One, or MarCO. These briefcase-sized CubeSats fly on their own path to Mars behind InSight.

Their goal is to test new miniaturized deep space communication equipment and, if the MarCOs make it to Mars, may relay back InSight data as it enters the Martian atmosphere and lands. This is the first test of miniaturized CubeSat technology at another planet, which researchers hope can offer new capabilities to future missions.

If successful, the MarCOs could represent a new kind of communication capability to Earth.

Several European space agencies, including France’s Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES) and the German Aerospace Center (DLR), are supporting the InSight mission. CNES provided the Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure instrument, with significant contributions from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, the Swiss Institute of Technology in Switzerland, Imperial College and Oxford University in the United Kingdom, and JPL. DLR provided the Heat Flow and Physical Properties Package instrument, with significant contributions from the Polish Space Agency (CBK) and Astronika in Poland. Spain’s Centro de Astrobiología supplied the wind sensors.

Illustration:  InSight spacecraft (NASA)

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Foreign Policy Update

NORTH KOREA

Officials from the United States and the United Kingdom met in London with industry leaders from maritime insurance companies, commodity traders, and other relevant parties, to discuss steps the private sector can take to prevent illicit shipping, trade, and other sanctions evasion activities that North Korea uses to generate revenue for its UN-prohibited nuclear and missile programs, according to the Office of the US State Department Spokesperson. 

North Korea, despite UN sanctions, continues to rely heavily on illicit shipping activities. Discussions centered around proactive measures the maritime could employ to protect against the provision of insurance for vessels engaged in illicit, prohibited activities with North Korea, disrupting North Korean-linked shipping, and enhanced public-private cooperation.

Washington’s goal is to create a final, fully verifiable denuclearization of North Korea. The State Department announcement added that the “full implementation of North Korean-related UN Security Council resolutions by all countries is crucial to a successful diplomatic outcome. The international community must continue to implement and enforce these resolutions until North Korea denuclearizes.”

MAGNITSKY SANCTIONS

The State Department announced the United States imposed sanctions on seventeen Saudi Arabian individuals for serious human rights abuse resulting from their roles in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi at the Consulate of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul, Turkey, on October 2. A press statement issued by Secretary Pompeo stated that “This action was taken under the authority of Executive Order 13818, which implements and builds upon the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. As a result of this action, all of these individuals’ assets within U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. At the time of Khashoggi’s killing, these individuals occupied positions in the Royal Court and several ministries and offices of the Government of Saudi Arabia.”

Since the killing of Khashoggi, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has attempted to put distance between the Crown Prince and others connected to the assassination. Western leaders have almost uniformly condemned the action and demanded that the Saudi government take immediate punitive action to determine the details, and identity, of those involved in the killing.

NEW HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE STEERING COUNCIL 

To further optimize the State Department and USAID’s humanitarian assistance, the Secretary of State announced he has established a new senior-level mechanism for coordinating and overseeing U.S. humanitarian assistance – the Humanitarian Assistance Steering Council. The
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purpose of the Council, he stated, “is to coordinate U.S. government efforts in order to achieve seamless, efficient, and effective delivery of humanitarian assistance overseas in support of U.S. foreign policy objectives, including promoting burden-sharing and UN humanitarian reform.”

UKRAINE

The State Department spokesperson announced: “The United States joins our European Allies and partners in condemning the November 11 sham “elections” in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. Yesterday’s illegitimate processes were an attempt by Moscow to institutionalize its Donbas proxies, the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.” These entities have no place within the Minsk agreements or within Ukraine’s constitutional government, and they should be dismantled along with the illegal armed formations.”

If Russia calculated the November 11 illegal “elections” would lead to international respect for its proxies, the international reaction proves it was mistaken, according to the Department. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has refused to monitor the election, calling it a “farce,” and the UN Security Council recently denounced Russia’s actions.

The European Union and the United States are in close alignment on this issue and plan to continue to impose Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia “until Moscow fully implements the Minsk agreements and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine,” according to the Department Spokesperson.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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The 14th Amendment Debate

President Trump’s decision to write an Executive Order regarding the citizenship of children born to illegal aliens has produced a broad national debate on the constitutionality of his proposal. Opponents claim that the move would violate Section One of the 14th Amendment:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

The practical and financial need to address the issue is clear, as noted in statistics provided by The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS):

  • In 2014, one in five births (791,000) in the United States was to an immigrant mother (legal or illegal). CIS best estimate is that legal immigrants accounted for 12.4 percent (494,000) of all births, and illegal immigrants accounted for 7.5 percent (297,000).
  • The 297,000 births per year to illegal immigrants is larger than the total number of births in any state other than California and Texas. It is also larger than the total number of births in 16 states plus the District of Columbia, combined.
  • The estimated 28,000 births to illegal immigrants in just the Los Angeles metro area is larger than the total number of births in 14 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Among the native-born, a large share of new mothers (42 percent) are either uninsured or on Medicaid. The rate is even higher among new mothers who are legal immigrants (47 percent) and higher still for new mothers who are in the United States illegally (67 percent). Almost all of these births are likely paid for by taxpayers.
  • Of all births likely paid for by taxpayers, about one in four (429,000) was to an immigrant (legal or illegal). Illegal immigrants account for 11 percent (198,000) of all publicly funded births, and legal immigrants are another 13 percent (231,000).
  • CIS estimates that the cost to taxpayers for births to immigrants (legal and illegal) is roughly $5.3 billion — $2.4 billion of which is for illegal immigrants.

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Objections to the President’s plan center on whether the policy change requires a Constitutional Amendment. It is helpful to understand the historical context.

The 14th, ratified in 1868, was one of three amendments passed in the aftermath of the Civil War, which were intended to abolish slavery and establish civil and legal rights for black Americans. The 13th ended slavery and the 15th prohibited restrictions on voting due to race, color, or “previous condition of servitude.” It is clear, then, that the purpose of the 14th amendment was to address the citizenship of ex-slaves.

Following the conclusion of fighting between the Union and the Confederacy, the Reconstruction-era process of incorporating the Southern states back into the national government faced a number of obstacles, including the actions by formerly rebellious jurisdictions to oppress freed blacks. Democrats continued to oppose the Republican move to recognize the former slaves as full-fledged citizens.

As History.com explains, “Though the Union victory had given some 4 million slaves their freedom, the question of freed blacks’ status in the postwar South was still very much unresolved… Even as former slaves fought to assert their independence and gain economic autonomy during the earliest years of Reconstruction, white landowners acted to control the labor force through a system similar to the one that had existed during slavery.”

The need for the 14th Amendment to establish recognition of ex-slaves as full-fledged citizens was clear.  But others born in the U.S. were not covered by it.  It was not until June 2 of 1924 that Native Americans were given citizenship, when President Calvin Coolidge signed the Indian Citizenship Act, which provided that “all noncitizen Indians born within the territorial limits of the United States be, and they are hereby, declared to be citizens of the United States…”

A close reading of the first sentence of 14th Amendment also provides a conclusion that it does not apply to births to illegal aliens and tourists:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.”

Even if the clear historical context of the 14th Amendment as a means to protect ex-slaves is wholly ignored, the existence of that key part of the very first sentence specifically refutes any argument that it applies to births of illegal aliens or others merely temporarily within the nation.

Illustration: Battle of Stone River during the Civil War (Smithsonian Institution)

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The State of America’s Heartland

How is America’s Heartland doing? What many elites in Washington, New York and California consider “flyover country” is essential to the safety and prosperity of the nation.

Last month the Brooking’s  Metropolitan Policy Program partnered with the Walton Family Foundation to release a by-the-numbers look at economic and social conditions in the interior U.S.  Trends in 19 diverse Heartland states were examined. The conclusion was that the region is doing relatively well.

According to the Factbook, “the region enjoys key strengths in advanced manufacturing, agriculture, and other exports… The Heartland’s employment rate and cost-of-living adjusted median earnings—critical measures of wellbeing—actually exceed the rest of the country. And those measures are rising in the region—meaning more people may be living more comfortably.”

Three major takeaways emerge clearly from the Factbook, as noted in its’ Executive Summary:

The Heartland economy is doing better than is sometimes portrayed. Growth measured by job and output growth have been steady, if not stellar, since 2010 with all of the Heartland states adding jobs and 18 increasing their output. Prosperity has also been slowly rising as all 19 states enjoyed increased standards of living, all 19 posted increases in the average wage, and 12 saw productivity increases. Supporting all of this, meanwhile, is an impressive base of crown jewel export industries, in particular strong concentrations of advanced manufacturing in the eastern Heartland and of agribusiness in the western Heartland. Overall, the 19 Heartland states constitute a manufacturing super-region and export powerhouse that outperforms the rest of the country on a number of core economic indicators.

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Serious deficits in the region’s human capital and innovation capacity pose the most serious challenges to improving future prosperity. On this front the factbook’s indicators depict a region that is—in most places—struggling to amass the human and technology capacity needed to support broad-based prosperity. Regarding the region’s stocks of human capital, only the Dakotas added population as fast as the rest of the nation, meaning that slow population growth—including among prized young workers—limits the region’s overall growth prospects. Worse, only three Heartland states exceeded the average B.A. attainment for the rest of the country, meaning that most places and populations in the region may be unprepared for an increasingly digitalized labor market. Turning to the region’s innovation assets, weak R&D flows, a thin roster of top universities for tech transfer, and a near-complete dearth of venture capital (VC) investment outside Chicago leave Heartland firms starved of the new ideas, new practices, and funding leveraged by firms elsewhere to drive competitive breakthroughs. Finally, lower levels of urban dynamism and epidemics of obesity and opioid use represent substantial drags on productivity and output. In sum, these deficits represent the most challenging findings of the factbook and pose the greatest hurdles to changemakers…

The good news is that even in its most challenging areas for improvement, the Heartland boasts some of the most impressive and impactful collaborations anywhere of business, civic, and government changemakers working together to solve problem.

Photo: Pixabay

 

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U.S. Left Follows Familiar Pattern

Judge Kavanaugh, in his rebuttal to Democrat attacks on his nomination, broke convention and cited Democrat goals to essentially overturn the results of the 2016 election. In the unlikely forum of a hearing to rule on a nomination for U.S. Supreme Court, an important threat to Constitutional order was given its greatest exposure.

The U.S. is not alone in this deterioration of democracy.  In Europe, the European Union has  engaged in tactics that replace rule by the people with rule by bureaucrats.

There is an extraordinary move by U.S. leftist elites to functionally ignore and overturn the results of the 2016 presidential election. The hard left, which has attained near-controlling influence over the lion’s share of the media, academia, and the leadership of the Democrat Party has engaged in nearly every conceivable tactic, including violence in the streets, a false sense of hysteria created by the media, attempts by the Ninth Circuit Court to impose unconstitutional restrains on the lawful ability of the President to restrict potentially harmful travel from terrorist-infested lands, and illegal negotiations by out of office pols to conduct foreign affairs as though Obama was still in office.

This is greater than the normal roughhousing by Democrats against Republicans in the U.S. It is a rejection of the concept that the majority, not the elites, have the final say, and in the sanctity of the concept of recognizing the results of the ballot box.

The immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential voting was violence in the streets, reportedly well-funded by leftist billionaires. That tactic continued into the inauguration itself.  It was followed by attempts by Ninth Circuit judges to unlawfully hamper specific presidential directives on travel, and various moves by Democrat state attorneys general to engage the White House in groundless legal squabbles. Some Democrat-governed city and state governments sought to limit federal jurisdiction in immigration by declaring themselves “sanctuary” areas. The  recommendation of firmer CIA director John Brennan, (who has admitted to voting for a Communist Party candidate for president) to federal employees to disregard the directives of President Trump is perhaps the most troubling and unsettling example of this entire strategy.

A disturbing pattern of Democrat candidates for state attorney general openly campaigned on a platform of attacking the White House, an issue certainly outside of their job description. Sean Maloney, an unsuccessful Democrat primary candidate for New York State Attorney General campaigned, in numerous TV commercials, predominately on a platform of “fighting Trump.”  It’s a reflection of the well-funded effort to offset the 201 election results by any means necessary.
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This cannot be seen solely as a Democrat vs. Republican issue.  It must be understood as a move by the now hard-left dominated Democrat Party leadership to ignore the principles of the Constitution and the traditions of the American Republican in its bid to gain and keep power.

Obama made no secret of his contempt for the Constitution and the normal functioning of democracy.  His belief that he didn’t “have to wait for Congress,” and his acting on that by  enacting legislation-like executive orders, his signing off on what were, by any standard definition, major foreign treaties without the advice and consent of the Senate, his use of federal agencies to attack political rivals all attest to this. His presidency is over, but his leftist belief that the Constitution was an impediment that could be swept aside when convenient endures.

It follows a pattern that has become all too familiar over the past century in socialist nations.  It is no coincidence that as socialism becomes more mainstream within the Democrat Party, elitist and historically familiar socialist tactics become more common.  Soviet Bolsheviks, German National Socialists (Nazis) Chinese Communists, Cuban revolutionaries, and Venezuelan Chavistas all engaged in a similar timeline.  Allege to represent the poor or downtrodden, turn various segments of society against each other, and ignore democratic practices as a self-serving elite takes the reins of power under the pretense that they know better than the general public how to govern.

American leftists like to portray themselves as being “of the people.” That is clearly nonsense. Their love of high taxes, excessive bureaucracy, their determination to condone massive illegal immigration to dilute voting power, particularly in poor communities, their moves to crush free speech, all point to an elitist mob that will use any excuse, exploit any issue, and exacerbate any situation to gain power.

Photo: U.S. Supreme Court (Supreme Court photo)

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Latest Global Warming Report Criticized

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued further dire warnings about the impact of man-made global warming.

The IPCC maintains that “Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times, observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006–2015 was 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C)6 higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period (very high confidence). Estimated anthropogenic global warming matches the level of observed warming to within ±20% (likely range). Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade due to past and ongoing emissions (high confidence).”

The purpose of the study is to “strengthen” the global response.

What should be made of the IPCC report? According to a Heartland review,  the organization’s predictions are based more on preconceived notions than scientific research. H. Sterling Burentt writes:

“From its very formation, the IPCC was a political, not a scientific organization, directed by politicians to research the ‘human causes’ of climate change—as if nature—the Sun, clouds, and oceanic cycles, for example—plays no role in climate. ‘Government,’ not ‘science,’ is in the IPCC’s name, and its most recent ‘Summary for Policymakers’ was shaped by bureaucrats’ desires for ever-greater government intervention in the economy and  people’s lives, delivering more money and power to government bureaucrats and anti-capitalist nongovernmental organizations. To produce this result, the 2018 report, like each previous Summary for Policymakers, ignored or downplayed significant scientific uncertainty regarding the causes and consequences of the present period of climate change.

“The most basic assumption built into climate models is carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases drive temperature changes. Thus, the foundational projection climate models make is that as greenhouse gas emissions rise, the planet’s temperature will rise as well. Numerous peer-reviewed studies, however, demonstrate climate models grossly overstate the amount of warming the Earth has experienced as carbon dioxide levels have increased. In addition, climate models entirely missed a recent 18 year hiatus in rising temperatures.

“The failure of the IPCC’s temperature projections to match recorded temperatures provides ample reason for not trusting any of the organization’s other projections. If IPCC can’t get basic temperature measurements right, why trust its projections about disease, drought, extinctions, famine, flood, hurricanes, and sea levels, especially when real-world data demonstrates past IPCC predictions on these matters have been consistently wrong?”

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A report by Dr. James P. Wallace III, Dr. Joseph S. D’Aleo, and  Dr. Craig D. Idso questions the validity of key pro-global warming data, including that provided by NOAA, NASA and the Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data, as well as The Validity of the EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding. The findings of those agencies essentially rely on the same flawed data.

The study concludes that “The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting warming. Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings.”

Dr. Philip Lloyd, a physicist researching climate change, has found that the variation in temperature over the past century is within the planet’s natural variability over the past 8,000 years. Lloyd formerly was a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. His conclusions are the result of ice-core based data.

Second, the revelations that key studies from both government agencies and academic institution , which have been central to man-made global warming reports,  were falsified and/or misstated common sense questions,has shaken confidence in the accuracy of those advocating the theory. Questions such as  why Earth’s temperature was warmer in the 10th Century AD, as well as in the era of the Roman Empire, have been ignored.  The thousands of scientists who have expressed significant doubt about global warming were completely ignored by those claiming the idea was “settled science.”

A Wall Street Journal analysis  of the IPCC report asks “Have we reached peak alarmism on climate change? The question occurs after the muted reaction last week to the latest forecast from the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In case you hadn’t heard we’re all doomed, yet the world mostly yawned. This is less complacency than creeping scientific and political realism… not tested over time are the panel’s climate models, which are sensitive to forecasts of population growth, ocean currents and radiative forcing, among myriad scientific variables that are not well understood. The IPCC’s forecasts keep changing because climate models are still in an early stage of development.”

Photo: Yellowstone Park (U.S. Interior Dept.)

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Status of American military Power

For the entire length of the Obama Administration, the surging power of the Russian and Chinese militaries was largely met with, in defiance of caution, reductions in the U.S. defense budget.  Long standing and successful concepts, such as having sufficient forces to meet two challenges simultaneously, were openly abandoned.  Following the election of 2016, a more realistic approach returned, but undoing the damage of eight years cannot be accomplished in a short period of time.

The Heritage Foundation has issued its annual Index  of U.S. Military Strength .

We present a quick summary of its findings:

“…the U.S. does not have the necessary force to meet a two–major regional contingency requirement and is not ready to carry out its duties effectively. Consequently, as we have seen during the past few years, the U.S. risks seeing its interests increasingly challenged and the world order it has led since World War II undone.

“The Active Component of the U.S. military is two-thirds the size it should be, operates equipment that is older than should be the case, and is burdened by readiness levels that are problematic.

  • Army as “Marginal.” The Army’s score returned to “marginal” in the 2019 Index, primarily due to an increase in readiness. The Army continues to struggle to rebuild end strength and modernization for improved readiness in some units for current operations, accepting risks in these areas to keep roughly half of its force at acceptable levels of readiness.
  • Navy as “Marginal.” The Navy’s overall score is the same as in the 2018 Index. The Navy’s emphasis on restoring readiness and increasing its capacity signals that its overall score could improve in the near future if needed levels of funding are sustained. The Navy’s decision to defer maintenance has kept ships at sea but also has affected the Navy’s ability to deploy, and the service has little ability to surge to meet wartime demands. The Navy remained just able to meet operational requirements in 2018.
  • Air Force as “Marginal.” This score has trended downward over the past few years largely because of a drop in “capacity” that has not effectively changed and a readiness score of “weak.” Shortages of pilots and flying time have degraded the ability of the Air Force to generate the air power that would be needed to meet wartime requirements.
  • Marine Corps as “Weak.” The Corps continues to deal with readiness challenges driven by the combination of high operational tempo and the lingering effects of procurement delays. The Marine Corps has cited modernization of its aviation platforms as the single most effective means to increase readiness within the service. Marine operating forces as a whole continue to average a two-to-one deployment-to-dwell ratio, consuming readiness as quickly as it is built and leaving minimal flexibility to respond to contingencies.
  • Nuclear Capabilities as “Marginal.” The U.S. nuclear complex is “trending toward strong,” but this assumes that the U.S. maintains its commitment to modernization and allocates needed resources accordingly. Although a bipartisan commitment has led to continued progress on U.S. nuclear forces modernization and warhead sustainment, these programs remain threatened by potential future fiscal uncertainties, as are the infrastructure, testing regime, and manpower pool on which the nuclear enterprise depends.

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“In the aggregate, the United States’ military posture is rated “marginal.” … the current U.S. military force is likely capable of [only] meeting the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various presence and engagement activities but that it would be very hard-pressed to do more and certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies.

“The military services have continued to prioritize readiness for current operations by shifting funding to deployed or soon-to-deploy units while sacrificing the ability to keep non-deployed units in “ready” condition; delaying, reducing, extending, or canceling modernization programs; and sustaining the reduction in size and number of military units. While Congress and the new Administration took positive steps to stabilize funding for 2018 and 2019 through the Bipartisan Budget Agreement of 2018, they have not overturned the Budget Control Act that otherwise caps defense spending and that, absent additional legislative action, will reassert its damaging effects in 2020. Without a real commitment to increases in modernization, capacity, and readiness accounts over the next few years, a significant positive turn in the threat environment, or a reassessment of core U.S. security interests, America’s military branches will continue to be strained to meet the missions they are called upon to fulfill.”

Photo:  The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Hopper (DDG 70), equipped with the Aegis integrated weapons system, launches a RIM-161 Standard Missile (SM) 3 Block IA.DoD photo courtesy of U.S. Navy/Released

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Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

CHINA

Secretary Pompeo hosted the U.S.-China Diplomatic & Security Dialogue where leaders from both nations participated in a “friendly” and “constructive” dialogue on issues affecting the U.S.-China relationship and also made preparations for meetings between the US and Chinese leaders during the upcoming G20 meeting.

Secretary Pompeo addressed continuing concerns “about China’s activities and militarization in the South China Sea.” He said he has pressed China to live up to its past commitments in this area. “Regarding our strong ties with a democratic Taiwan,” he added, “I reiterated the U.S. policy has not changed and that we are concerned about China’s increasing efforts to coerce others, constraining Taiwan’s international space. And finally, I stated the United States and the international communities will continue to express our concerns with respect to China’s repression of religious groups – Christian, Buddhists, and 800,000 to possibly millions of Muslims that have been denied their freedoms.”

EUROPE AND EURASIA

The State Department announced that the U.S. is imposing financial sanctions on three individuals and nine entities that are supporting Russia’s attempt to integrate Crimea region of Ukraine through private investment and privatization projects or those that are engaging in serious human rights abuses in furtherance of Russia’s occupation or control over parts of Ukraine.

The action reinforces the Crimea Declaration of July 25, 2018, which states that the United States does not and will not recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Crimea. The State Department Spokesperson’s office added that “The designations underscore the United States’ steadfast partnership with Ukraine and the European Union in unified opposition to Russia’s illegal purported annexation and occupation of Crimea and use of force to control parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine.”

IRAN

The day after US elections Secretary Pompeo spoke about Iranian sanctions with BBC Persian. When asked if there was  any sign that the Iranian leaders are coming to the table to have negotiations, he said that the United States has not seen any indication yet but is “very hopeful that they will do that.”  He added that “We think it’s what the Iranian people would want them to do. Remember the purpose. The purpose is to stop Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region, assassination campaigns in Europe, work to support Lebanese Hizballah that’s threatened Americans and Israelis, and using Iranian people’s wealth to foment this terror around the world is not what the Iranian people want.” The American effort is aimed at getting the Iranian leadership to understand this isn’t in the best interests of their country or their people and to try to push for a change in their behavior.
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None of the sanctions Washington imposed prevent humanitarian assistance. They include extensive exemptions for medicine, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural imports. The goal of the Administration is to cause a change in state behavior, according to the Secretary, not to harm the Iranian people.

RUSSIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

At a State Department briefing on November 7, Deputy Spokesperson Robert Palladino discussed upcoming meetings in Moscow. He urged all countries to support a direct dialogue between the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban to reach an end to the war. He said: “we’ve been clear that no government, including Russia, can be a substitute for the Afghan Government in direct negotiations with the Taliban.”

The United States, in coordination with the Afghan Government, plans to send a representative to the working level to observe the discussions

Palladino pointed out that Washington made a determination against the Russian Government over its use of Novichok nerve agent against Sergei and Yulia Skripal back on August 6th. Under the act, he said, “the chemical biological weapons act, the Russian Government had until yesterday, November 6th, to take steps to meet the conditions required under the act… by yesterday, it had not done so, so we followed what was required under the act and we informed the Congress that we were unable to certify that the Russian Federation was in compliance. And so what – as we move forward we will be proceeding with our statutory requirements.” The U.S. wants to ensure that sanctions and handled carefully and will be effective. Washington has not set a start date yet.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Crime and Non-Punishment

The Republican House moves to investigate alleged wrongdoings involving the Clinton Foundation, as well as actions by former U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch and James Comey during the 2016 presidential election open up a broader and deeply troubling question: Has a double standard been established for justice and politics in the United States?

It is increasingly difficult to overlook the reality that actions undertaken by Democrat appointed officials have escaped the appropriate legal response, or even the level of intense scrutiny and criticism they would reasonably entail if they were performed by a Republican. It is disingenuous to argue that partisanship does not play a significant role in this. That dichotomy serves as an enabler for future misdeeds.

Arguably, the most salient example involves the actions of Lois Lerner during her tenure with the Internal Revenue Service. Even after exposure and legal action, abuses by this hyper-partisan official continued unpunished.  A 2016 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit only lightly covered by many major media sources found that the IRS violated the Constitution, was unlawfully used for partisan purposes, and refused to comply with a court order to cease and desist in its illegal actions. Thirty-eight non-profit organizations from twenty-two states, represented by the American Center for Law and Justice  were subjected to violations of their First Amendment rights.

The Court noted that information obtained under a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that the offending IRS officials “orchestrated a complex scheme to dump conservative and Tea Party non-profit applicants into a bureaucratic ‘black hole.’ Another 294 pages of documents … also recently released by Judicial Watch further establish that ‘top IRS officials in Washington, including Lois Lerner and Holly Paz, knew that the agency was specifically targeting ‘Tea Party’ and other conservative organizations two full years before disclosing it to Congress and the public…”

Despite the blatant nature of Ms. Lerner’s actions, she received no punishment.

Other Obama-era examples abound. Also in 2016, the Select Committee on Benghazi released its report and the information revealed that the Clinton-era U.S. State Department knowingly lied to the American people about the cause of the attack. It also revealed that an antiterrorism team was indeed stopped from proceeding. Despite the death of a U.S. Ambassador and other Americans, and despite clear evidence of a knowing refusal to take actions before and during the attack that could possibly have prevented the tragedy, no repercussions followed.

No issue stands out more, nor illustrates better, the pro-Democratic double standard, and “get out of jail free” attitude towards those it favors, than the entire matter of the Russian uranium deal, in which the Kremlin’s nuclear energy agency, Rosatom, took control of 20% of U.S. uranium. National Review  described the deal:

“On June 8, 2010, Rosatom, the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, announced plans to purchase a 51.4 percent stake in [a] …company..whose international assets included some 20 percent of America’s uranium capacity. Because this active ingredient in atomic reactors and nuclear weapons is a strategic commodity, this $1.3 billion deal required the approval of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Secretary of State Clinton was one of nine federal department and agency heads on that secretive panel. On June 29, 2010, three weeks after Rosatom proposed to Uranium One, Bill Clinton keynoted a seminar staged by Renaissance Capital in Moscow, a reputedly Kremlin-controlled investment bank that promoted this transaction. Renaissance Capital paid Clinton $500,000 for his one-hour speech. While CFIUS evaluated Rosatom’s offer, Clinton Cash author Peter Schweizer observed, ‘a spontaneous outbreak of philanthropy among eight shareholders in Uranium One’ began. ‘These Canadian mining magnates decided now would be a great time to donate tens of millions of dollars to the Clinton Foundation.”
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Additionally, Secretary Clinton violated both State Department protocols and federal laws and regulations by using her private email server for emails containing secret and top secret messages. Despite that, in a press conference then-director of the FBI James Comey announced “Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes … our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.”

To date, Ms. Clinton has received no punishment.

The double standard, unfortunately, has been employed not only in the spheres of media and politics but by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, in matters pertaining to President Trumps’ anti-terrorism travel bans.

During his tenure in office, Barack Obama, on at least six occasions, barred potentially dangerous immigrants, predominately from Moslem nations, from entering the United States. Both President Trump and Obama employed the same section of laws, section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952,  (“Whenever the president finds that the entry of aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, the president may, by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrant’s or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.”) to justify their action.

The 9th circuit was quiet on Obama’s move, but sought to restrict President Trump.

Numerous other examples, some involving voting fraud, could be included in the discussion. But the point is already clear. Thanks to a highly partisan media and a portion of the court system that places its own partisan beliefs above the law, many Democrats have a sense of invulnerability in the commission of illegal or unethical political acts.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Quick Analysis

U.S. Vulnerable to EMP Attack

A declassified report from the Congressional Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, first obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, warns that China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran have developed the technology for an Electronic Pulse Attacks (EMP) against America.  The danger lurks not only from war.  A repeat of the long-overdue “Carrington Effect,” a result of natural sun cycles, could cripple the entire U.S. electronic grid.

According to the Free Beacon’s Bill Gertz, the report states that “China, Russia, and Iran consider the use of high-altitude nuclear blasts as ‘sixth generation warfare’ that could cripple the ability of U.S. military to wage war using advanced electronic systems for intelligence, navigation, and precision weapons guidance. ‘Nuclear EMP attack is part of the military doctrines, plans, and exercises of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran for a revolutionary new way of warfare against military forces and civilian critical infrastructures by cyber, sabotage, and EMP.’”

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government previously reported, In 2017 testimony to Congress about the imminent threat of an EMP attack on the United States by Dr. William R. Graham, Chairman, and Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, chief of staff, of the Commission to Assess the Threat to America from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), the two experts noted:

“In the event of a nuclear EMP attack on the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable.” According to their report, “The damage level could be sufficient to be catastrophic to the Nation, and our current vulnerability invites attack…

“We highly commend President Trump’s new Executive Order “Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure” signed on May 11, 2017. We strongly recommend that implementation of cybersecurity for the electric grid and other critical infrastructures include EMP protection, since all-out cyber warfare as planned by Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran includes nuclear EMP attack. However, current institutional arrangements for protecting and improving the reliability of the electric grids and other critical infrastructures through the U.S. FERC and the NERC are not designed to address major national security threats to the electric power grids and other national critical infrastructures. Using FERC and NERC to achieve this level of national security is beyond the purpose for which those organizations were created and has proven to be fundamentally unworkable. New institutional arrangements are needed to advance preparedness to survive EMP and related threats to our critical national infrastructures.

“We recommend that U.S. military forces and critical national infrastructures be protected from EMP as outlined in the EMP Commission’s classified reports and unclassified reports provided in 2004 and 2008. EMP protection of military systems and civilian/military critical national infrastructures can be achieved cost-effectively by a combination of operational procedures and physical hardening. It is not necessary to harden everything. Selective hardening of key critical nodes and equipment will suffice. Threat parameters are 200 kilovolts/meter for E1 EMP and 85 volts/kilometer for E3 EMP. Critical national infrastructures are already adequately protected from E2 EMP, equivalent to lightning.

“We recommend, given the proximity and enormity of the threat from EMP and Combined Arms Cyber Warfare, the President exercise leadership to implement immediate, midterm, and long-term steps to deter and defeat this existential threat.

Immediately:

“We recommend that the President declare that EMP or cyber-attacks that blackout or threaten to blackout the national electric grid constitute the use of weapons of mass destruction that justify preemptive and retaliatory responses by the United States using all possible means, including nuclear weapons. Some potential adversaries have the capability to produce a protracted nationwide blackout induced by EMP or Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare by the use of nuclear or non-nuclear means. A Defense Science Board study Resilient Military Systems and the Advanced Cyber Threat (January 2013) equates an all-out cyber-attack on the United States with the consequences of a nuclear attack, and concludes that a nuclear response is justified to deter or retaliate for cyber warfare that threatens the life of the nation: “While the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber-attack are very different, in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same.”

“We recommend that the President issue an Executive Order, provided to the previous White House, titled “Protecting the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)”. Among many other provisions to protect the nation from EMP on an emergency basis, the Executive Order would instantly mobilize a much needed “whole of government solution” to the EMP and combined-arms cyber threat: “All U.S. Government Departments, Agencies, Offices, Councils, Boards, Commissions and other U.S. Government entities…shall take full and complete account of the EMP threat in forming policies and plans to protect United States critical infrastructures…” Protecting the electric grids and other critical infrastructures from the worst threat—nuclear EMP attack—can, if carried out in a system-wide, integrated approach, help mitigate all lesser threats, including natural EMP, man-made non-nuclear EMP, cyberattack, physical sabotage, and severe terrestrial weather.

“We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Defense to include a Limited Nuclear Option for EMP attack among the U.S. nuclear strike plans, and immediately make targeting and fusing adjustments to some of the nuclear forces needed to implement a nuclear EMP attack capability.

“We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Defense to use national technical means to ascertain if there is a nuclear weapon aboard North Korea’s KMS-3 or KMS-4 satellites that orbit over the United States. If either or both of these satellites are nucleararmed, they should be intercepted and destroyed over a broad ocean area where an EMP resulting from salvage-fusing will do the least damage to humanity.

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“We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Homeland Security to harden the FirstNet emergency communications system against EMP.

“We recommend that the President initiate training, evaluating, and “Red Teaming” efforts to protect the U.S. and in the event of an EMP attack to respond, and periodically report the results of these efforts to the Congress.

Mid-Term:

“We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Defense to deploy Aegis-ashore missile interceptors along the Gulf of Mexico coast to plug the hole in U.S. missile defenses. The U.S. has no Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radars or missile interceptors facing south, and is largely blind and defenseless from that direction, including to missiles launched from submarines or off ships, or from a nuclear-armed satellite orbiting on a south polar trajectory.

“We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Defense to develop a spacesurveillance program to detect if any satellites orbited over the United States are nucleararmed, and develop space-interception capabilities to defend against nuclear-armed satellites that might make an EMP attack.

“We recommend that the President direct the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to launch a crash program to harden the over 100 nuclear power reactors and their spent fuel storage facilities against nuclear EMP attack. Nuclear power reactors typically only have enough emergency power to cool reactor cores and spent fuel rods for a few days, after which they would “go Fukushima” spreading radioactivity over much of the United States.

Long-Term:

“We recommend that the President through his Executive Agent protect elements of the national electric grids, the keystone critical infrastructure upon which all other critical infrastructures depend. Priority should be given to elements that are difficult and timeconsuming to replace. Such elements can be protected from EMP at very low cost relative to the costs of an EMP catastrophe, and paid for without federal dollars by a slight increase in user electric rates. We recommend that a similar approach be taken to key elements of the national telecommunications infrastructure and other national critical infrastructures.

“We recommend the development and deployment of enhanced-EMP nuclear weapons and other means to deter adversary attack on the United States. Enhanced-EMP nuclear weapons, called by the Russians Super-EMP weapons, can be developed without nuclear testing.

“We recommend strengthening U.S. ballistic missile defenses—including deployment of space-based defenses considered by the Strategic Defense Initiative— and that these be designed and postured to also protect the U.S. from EMP attack.”

Photo: Pixabay