Month: October 2018

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Quick Analysis

Social Security Hike Reverses Obama Era Problem

The announcement scheduled for later this month that seniors can expect about a 2.8% cost of living (COLA) increase in their social security (following 2018 2% increase) is another indication that the Obama era practice of diverting funds meant for older Americans to other groups is coming to an end.

As America’s national debt rapidly soared to the $20 trillion mark under the prior Administration, key needs such as defense and the fiscal and medical health of seniors took a back seat to other priorities.

Since the regular program of Cost of Living increases began in 1975, (prior to that increases were provided by legislation) there has never been a period when such adjustments were lower than they were under President Obama. Not once had there been a year in which there was no increase at all. Since 2009, two consecutive years, 2009 and 2010, provided no adjustments, and there was also no adjustment in 2015.  Before 2009, the average annual increase was 4.4%; during the Obama presidency, it was 1.7%.

But Social Security was only one area in which seniors were detrimentally affected. In 2012, Americans for Tax reform performed an analysis of the 20 new or higher taxes resulting from Obamacare, and pointed out the five that most directly harmed seniors:

Individual Mandate excise tax penalty.  Many seniors face a coverage gap between retirement and Medicare eligibility.  Obamacare raises taxes on these younger seniors by punishing them if they don’t purchase “qualifying health insurance.”  Set to go into effect in 2014, the excise tax penalty for mandate non-compliance will in 2016 rise to 2.5% of adjusted gross income for a senior couple (or $1390 for those making less than $55,600).  Why does Obamacare raise taxes on seniors just as they are entering retirement?

“Cadillac Plan” excise tax.  Starting in 2018, Obamacare imposes a whopping 40% excise tax on high-cost (“Cadillac plan”) health insurance plans.  This is defined for seniors as a plan whose premiums exceed $29,450 for a family plan, or $11,500 for a single senior.  Seniors often face higher costs in health insurance premiums due to chronic health conditions and other risk factors.  This tax is almost exclusively a tax which will fall on seniors with the greatest health insurance needs.

Dividends tax hike.  Starting in 2013, the top tax rate on dividends is scheduled to rise from 15% today to 39.6%.  In addition, Obamacare imposes a dividend “surtax” of 3.8% on families making more than $250,000 per year.  That would create a top dividend tax rate of 43.4%, nearly triple today’s rate.  This will fall very hard on seniors.  According to the Tax Foundation’s analysis of IRS data, 70% of households over age 55 receive dividend income.  71% of all dividends paid flow to these households.  To raise taxes on dividends is to raise taxes on seniors.

Medical device excise tax.  Obamacare imposes a new excise tax on medical device manufacturers in 2013.  These companies will surely build the cost of this new tax into the price of what they sell.  Who buys medical devices?  Who buys pacemakers, wheelchairs, and other costly medical devices?  Seniors do.

Reduce allowable medical itemized deductions.  Under current law, medical itemized deductions can be claimed on tax returns, but they must be reduced by 7.5% of adjusted gross income.  Obamacare increases this “haircut” to 10% of AGI in 2013.  This will mean that millions of Americans claiming medical itemized deductions will no longer be able to.  The same IRS data as above tells us that 60% of all tax returns claiming this deduction are over age 55.

An Investors  study noted that “One of the most important sources of funds that are being used to pay for ObamaCare comes from cuts in future Medicare spending. In 2016  Investors also study npointed out that “A letter issued by the Medicare Office of the Actuaries at the time ObamaCare became law warned that Medicare fees paid to doctors and hospitals will fall increasingly behind what other payers will be paying in future years – threatening access to care. That warning was repeated in the latest Medicare Trustees report, which warns that by 2040 half of all hospitals, 70% of all skilled nursing homes and 90% of home health care services will not be able to survive under Medicare’s increasingly skimpy fees.”

The Galen Organization summarized Obamacare’s impact on Medicare:

“ObamaCare doesn’t modernize the program or improve it for seniors. ObamaCare’s solutions are detrimental to today’s seniors:

  • The law takes $716 billion out of Medicare over 10 years to help fund a huge expansion of taxpayer subsidies for health coverage.
  • It creates an unelected, unaccountable board — the Independent Payment Advisory Board — with powers to limit payment and access to health care for seniors and which will become Medicare’s rationing board. ObamaCare drives your doctors and hospitals out of Medicare
  • The law makes deep cuts in payments to physicians treating Medicare patients.
  • Cuts to Medicare providers mean it will be harder for seniors to find doctors and hospitals to treat them.
  • Doctors are already threatening to drop out of the program in large numbers if the payment cuts go into effect.
  • Medicare actuaries predict that more than 40% of Medicare providers eventually will either go out of business or stop seeing Medicare patients altogether if the law’s cuts take effect.”

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While the deficient Social Security COLA’s have been addressed, other Obama-era challenges to seniors, particularly those in Obamacare, still remain unresolved.

Illustration: Social Security card (Social Security Administration)

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Foreign Policy Update

SECRETARY POMPEO IS TRAVELLING TO ASIA FOR TALKS WITH LEADERS October 6-8

Secretary of State Pompeo will travel to Tokyo, Japan to meet with Prime Minister Abe;  Pyongyang, DPRK to meet with President Moon; Seoul, Republic of Korea with President Moon and Foreign Minister Kang; and, finally in Beijing to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss bilateral, regional, and global issues. The purpose of the trip is continue to focus on the final, fully verifiable, denuclearization of the DPRK, and longstanding commitment to American alliances and partnerships in the region.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR COUNTERTERRORISM

This week President Trump announced a new National Strategy for Counterterrorism that the State Department says: “…brings to bear all facets of American power to protect our people and interests. The President’s strategy emphasizes the importance of diplomacy and the role of international partnerships in combating the terrorist threats we face.”

The strategy, Secretary Pompeo says, recognizes the need for all nations to equitably share the burden of confronting terrorism, to expand the counterterrorism capabilities of Washington’s partners, and to work collaboratively to defeat the terrorists of today and tomorrow.

Terrorist groups are evolving into more complex, fluid, and fast-moving groups that adapt quickly to efforts to thwart their expansion and violence. Networks such as al-Qa`ida, ISIS, and Iranian-supported terrorists continue to target the United States, America’s allies, and partners.

SECRETARY POMPEO SAYS LANDMARK DEVELOPMENT FINANCE LEGISLATION IMPROVES U.S. COMPETITIVENESS OVERSEAS

The recent Congressional Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act of 2018 passed with strong bipartisan support. Known as The BUILD Act, it implements President Trump’s vision for our development finance institutions. It also strengthens the government’s development finance capacity, offering a better alternative to state-directed investments and advancing our foreign policy goals. Secretary Pompeo pointed out: “We are enabling them to mobilize private sector investment to accelerate development and move societies forward. The Act provides opportunities for American companies to compete overseas and create jobs here at home, a critical component of the President’s national economic strategy.”

SECRETARY OF STATE’S PRESS CONFERENCE ON IRAQ, THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE AND PUTTING AMERICA’S DIPLOMATIC CORPS BACK IN THE FIELD 
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On October 3, prior to his Asian trip Secretary Pompeo held a press conference in which he discussed three issues:  Iraq, the International Court of Justice and putting America’s diplomatic corps back in the field. 

Regarding the situation in Iraq, the Secretary said Iran is the origin of the current threat to Americans in that country. “It is to blame for the attacks against our mission in Basra and our embassy in Baghdad. Our intelligence in this regard is solid. We can see the hand of the ayatollah and his henchmen supporting these attacks on the United States.,” he said.

Last week the Secretary ordered the temporary relocation of U.S. Government personnel from the American consulate general in Basra. He also warned the leadership in Tehran that the United States will hold Iran “directly responsible for any harm to Americans or our diplomatic facilities, whether perpetrated by Iranian forces or by associated proxies or elements of those militias.”

These acts appear to be attempts by Iran to counter American successes in the region and are expected to increase after full sanctions are in place beginning on the 4th of November.

The Secretary also announced that Washington is terminating the 1955 Treaty of Amity with Iran. Last July, he said, “Iran brought a meritless case in the International Court of Justice alleging violations of the Treaty of Amity. Iran seeks to challenge the United States decision to cease participation in the Iran nuclear deal and to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted as a part of that deal. Iran is attempting to interfere with the sovereign rights of the United States to take lawful actions necessary to protect our national security. And Iran is abusing the ICJ for political and propaganda purposes and their case, as you can see from the decision, lacked merit.”

The Secretary also discussed “putting the diplomatic team from the United States Department of State back on the field.”  Currently, there are 65 nominees waiting for confirmation in the United States Senate. This number equates to over 25% of all senior-level confirmable positions.

Secretary Pompeo stated that he wants “…every single American to know that what Senator Menendez and members of the Senate are doing to hold back American diplomacy rests squarely on their shoulders.” While there is bipartisan agreement that a fully staffed State Department is critical to American national security, Senator Menendez and others, he pointed out, have held up highly-qualified appointees some for as long as 207 days.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Military Spending Bill Signed

President Trump has signed H.R. 6157 the Department of Defense’s $674 billion appropriations bill for the fiscal year 2019 period.  It was the first time in over a decade that the military received its funding on schedule. After the budget slashes of the Obama Administration, the new bill, a $19.8-billion increase over the prior year, provides desperately needed resources, including a 2.6 percent pay raise for active duty service members.

Upon signing the measure, the President emphasized that “The bill … includes the largest pay raise for our warriors in nearly a decade.  My Administration has secured funding to order 93 new F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighters, 142 Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, and 13 Navy battle force ships—made right here in the USA.  This is the first time in more than a decade that our Defense Department has been given a full year of funding on time without relying on continuing resolutions…”

Senator Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and its subcommittee on defense stated:  “This package continues a historic increase in funding for our nation’s defense, helping the President deliver on his commitment to rebuild the military and keep our Armed Forces the strongest and best trained, equipped, and prepared in the world.”

House Armed Forces Chair Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-TX), noted: “When I became Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, too many of our senior commanders and DOD officials had become resigned to the notion that inadequate budgets and inefficient continuing resolutions were going to be facts of life far into the future. These same officials had begun to view degraded readiness and lost agility as risk factors they would have to accept when facing increasingly sophisticated adversaries. Today, President Trump’s signature begins to turn that situation around. It is a monumental achievement. By funding our military in full and on time, we can begin to restore its strength, agility, and effectiveness. The President was right to make rebuilding our military a high priority. I am grateful to my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and in both chambers- especially Chairmen Frelinghuysen and Granger- for the years of effort dedicated to getting to this point. As I have said before, the task before us now is to make full, on time funding of our military the rule in Washington, and not the exception.”

Rep. Thornberry outlined the need for the increased funding:

America’s Military Today:

– Over the past 8 years we have reduced the size of the Army, Guard, and Reserve by as much as 120,000 Soldiers and eliminated 15 brigade combat teams.
-Only  9 of 58 Brigade Combat Teams are “ready to fight tonight.” This number has nearly doubled since Congress began reinvesting in military readiness.
– Funding to upgrade outdated Army equipment has been cut in half during the last several years.

What the Appropriations Bill will do: Invest $22.9 billion to get our troops ready to deploy, including:

– $3.0 billion to repair Army equipment
– $5.1 billion to recruit additional Soldiers
– $14.8 billion to replace or upgrade current equipment

America’s Military Today:

– Our Air Force is smaller than it has ever been, far smaller than it needs to be to meet challenges from Russia and China.
– The average age of Air Force aircraft is over 27 years old. The Air Force is 2,000 pilots short. The pilots we do have are flying fewer hours than their predecessors in the 1970s when the service was considered “hollow.”
– Less than half of the Navy’s aircraft are mission capable.
– Half of Marine Corps aviation units lack the minimum number of ready basic aircraft.

What the Appropriations Bill will do: Invest $45.3 billion to get our planes back in the air, including:
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– $11.1 billion to repair or upgrade old aircraft
– $31.9 billion to replace aircraft too old or broken to repair
– $2.3 billion to recruit and train more airmen and aircraft mechanics

America’s Military Today:

– Serious readiness shortfalls, including insufficient time or resources to train Sailors or maintain ships, contributed a number of accidents- including the fatal collisions of the USS Fitzgerald and USS McCain.
– In some cases, Sailors have been working over 100 hours a week to keep up with training requirements and current operations.
– Navy ships and submarines remain in port unable to sail and perform their mission due to critical maintenance that cannot be conducted due to budget cuts.

What the Appropriations Bill will do: Invest $38.2 billion to get our ships back to sea, including:

– $12.1 billion to repair the ships we have
– $24.1 billion to add new ships to the fleet
– $2.0 billion to recruit and train our Sailors

America’s Military Today:

– To fund other priorities with constrained budgets, the services have been diverting funds from facilities maintenance, a risky gamble that has accelerated the failure rate of our infrastructure.
– Estimates of the number of facilities that now meet the Pentagon’s definition of “failing” have doubled in recent years.
– Our Armed Forces are struggling with crumbling and mold-ridden barracks, hangars that have been condemned, air traffic control facilities and runways in disrepair, collapsed ceilings and contaminated water.
– The backlog of deferred maintenance on facilities has increased from $2 billion in 1978 to $100 billion today.

What the Appropriations Bill will do: Invest $11.8 billion to repair and sustain infrastructure including barracks, hangars, roads, runways, and hospitals.

– $11.8 billion to sustain, repair, and upgrade military infrastructure

Photo:  Marines aim a 25mm chain gun during training aboard the USS Wasp in the South China Sea (Lance Cpl Alexis B. Betances)

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Yale Succumbs to Hysteria

This article was contributed by the distinguished retired jurist, Judge John Wilson. 

Its one of the most prominent law schools in the country.  Its graduates often turn to careers as professors rather than practicing lawyers.  Its distinguished alumni include Presidents Clinton (Class of ’73) and Ford (Class of ’41), as well as Former US Senator Hillary Clinton, and current Senators Cory Booker and Richard Blumenthal.  Supreme Court Justices Alito and Sotomayor are also alumnus of Yale.

The Criminal Justice program at Yale is advertised as ” a rich academic experience studying criminal law through many different lenses.” The course Offerings include “Capital Punishment: Race, Poverty and Disadvantage,” Criminal Justice Reform: Theory and Research in Action,” and “Guns in the United States.” The Professors teaching these classes include Akhil Reed Amar, who teaches Constitutional Law, and Gideon Yaffe, who teaches “the study of metaphysics including causation, free will and personal identity.”

Yale Law School is also the alma mater of Judge Brett Kavanaugh (Class of ’90).  Until recently, Yale was quite proud of their nominee for the Supreme Court.  In its July 9, 2018 press release, the Dean of Yale Law, Heather Gerken, stated “I can personally attest that, in addition to his government and judicial service, Judge Kavanaugh has been a longtime friend to many of us in the Yale Law School community. Ever since I joined the faculty, I have admired him for serving as a teacher and mentor to our students and for hiring a diverse set of clerks, in all respects, during his time on the court.”  Even the aforementioned Professor Amar praised Judge Kavanaugh; “Judge Kavanaugh commands wide and deep respect among scholars, lawyers, judges, and justices.”

In less than three months, however, Yale has turned its back on its once favored son.  At the time of his nomination, there was an open letter published in response to the press release, decrying Judge Kavanaugh as “a threat to the most vulnerable.”    Of course, not a word of this response letter anticipated the bombshell dropped when Professor Christine Ford accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her sometime in the early 1980s, while both were still in high school.

Since that accusation has been leveled, Yale Law School has been in full retreat before the onslaught of the perpetually outraged.  Even Professor Amar, who continues to stand by his endorsement of Judge Kavanaugh’s abilities, has called for “the best and most professional investigation possible — even if that means a brief additional delay on the ultimate vote on Judge Kavanaugh, and even if that investigatory delay imperils his confirmation.”

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 Students held an old fashioned sit in protest last week, wearing black, and listening to speeches from the likes of Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal (it bears repeating here that while still Attorney General of Connecticut, the Yale Alumnus, Class of ’73, lied to a group of veterans, and claimed that he had served in Vietnam.  Protesting is nothing new in the life of students – “fight the power!” students have cried out for many years.  But this time, the faculty assisted the protest, by cancelling a total of 31 classes.

Even Dean Gurken, who in July was so proud of Judge Kavanaugh and his accomplishments, now says  “As dean, I cannot take a position on the nomination, but I am so proud of the work our community is doing to engage with these issues.”

While Judge Kavanaugh is not a defendant in a criminal prosecution, he is accused of a serious criminal act.  He is entitled to due process under the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.  Even after the recent testimony given by Professor Ford before the Senate subcommittee, the allegations remain vague and uncorroborated, insufficient to meet even the slightest burden of proof.

For his own Alma mater to turn its back on Judge Kavanaugh and encourage their law students to rush to judgment, and rely upon incomplete, unreliable evidence in forming their conclusions, is the unkindest cut of all.

Photo: law books (Pixabay)

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U.S. Establishes Biodefense Strategy

The Trump Administration has established a “National Biodefense Strategy.” The move is the first of its kind to address the full range of biological threats, including those that are naturally occurring, deliberate, and accidental. A White House summary notes that it “sets up a process to assess our capabilities and to prioritize biodefense resources and actions across the Government. For the first time, the Government will be comprehensively evaluating biodefense needs and monitoring implementation of the National Biodefense Strategy on an ongoing basis. This annual process will ensure that the Administration stays nimble and can counter the rapidly changing landscape of biological threats.”

According to the President, “The National Biodefense Strategy builds on lessons learned from past biological incidents, such as the 2001 anthrax attacks, the 2009 influenza pandemic, and the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic, to develop a more resilient and effective biodefense enterprise. Biological threats emanate from many sources, and they know no borders. They have great potential to disrupt the economy, exact a toll on human life, and tear at the very fabric of society. My Administration will take steps to improve our understanding of the risks posed by biological threats and to respond to them effectively and efficiently.”

The Centers for Disease Control explains that “The word ‘bioterrorism’ refers to biological agents (microbes or toxins) used as weapons to further personal or political agendas. Acts of bioterrorism range from a single exposure directed at an individual by another individual to government-sponsored biological warfare resulting in mass casualties. Bioterrorism differs from other methods of terrorism in that the materials needed to make an effective biological agent are readily available, require little specialized knowledge and are inexpensive to produce. Until the aftermath of 9/11, few instances of bioterrorism were documented in the U.S…Bioterrorism differs from other methods of terrorism in that the effects are not always immediately apparent. An attack may be difficult to distinguish from a naturally occurring infectious disease outbreak. The first evidence of an attack will be in hospital emergency rooms where the proper diagnosis will be essential in treating and preventing the spread of the disease. In the event of intentional anthrax distribution, people at risk should take a 60-day course of prophylactic antibiotics, either doxycycline or ciprofloxacin. Vaccination against smallpox is not recommended to prevent the disease in the general public. In people exposed to smallpox, however, the vaccine can lessen the severity of, or even prevent, illness if given within 4 days of exposure. The U.S. has a supply of vaccine for emergency use.”

The White House is concerned because  biological and chemical weapons are weapons of mass destruction that could easily be obtained and deployed by terrorists. That’s a key reason why a Cabinet-level biodefense steering committee has been established, to be chaired by the Department of Health and Human Services. Other Cabinet departments, including the Defense Department; the Agricultural Department, (because a biological weapons attack could be directed against our food supply), Homeland Security, the EPA and others will also have key roles to play.

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“As the world grows more urbanized and interconnected, infectious threats can spread more rapidly and easily than ever. Think about one of the threats that HHS is monitoring at this very second, which is the Ebola outbreak in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Such is the ease of mobility between countries now, that just in the DRC, more than 100,000 people are being screened at border crossings every day. We also face accidental and manmade threats. Today’s rapid technological advances have great potential to improve public health and human health, but they also create the opportunity for new kinds of threats and for more and more actors to make use of biological weapons.”

At the same briefing, Ambassador John Bolton noted that “we’re constantly monitoring a range of countries and terrorist groups for the possibility that they would acquire a biological weapons capability that could threaten us. And the attack can come in a lot of different ways, either directly in the homeland. It could come from people traveling into the United States previously infected. It could come from stockpiles that are smuggled into the United States or may already be here. This is something we speak with our allies about all the time. There are any number of countries that are not the parties to the Biological Weapons Convention. There are parties that are — states that are parties to the Biological Weapons Convention that we think are violating it. I don’t want to get into the intelligence at this point, but we take very seriously, as we do across the range of weapons of mass destruction, the dangers to the United States from this kind of attack, which is why we felt that bringing all of this together in a coordinated government-wide biodefense strategy to create an accountable, operational capability was so important.”

Illustration: Centers for Disease Control

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This “Resistance” is a Coup

For eight years, the Obama Administration ignored Constitutional checks on its power and ran roughshod on those with differing views. The IRS harassment of the Tea Party, Attorney General Loretta Lynch’s consideration of criminally prosecuting those that disagreed with the President’s climate change views, and the unlawful surveillance of an opposition campaign are just a few examples. National security protocols for communications were violated without penalty.  Major treaties, including the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal were unconstitutionally adopted without the consent of the Senate. Extraordinary conflicts of interests, including Clinton’s approval of the sale of the basic ingredient of nuclear weapons to the Russians followed by contributions to her foundation, abounded.

There was little fear of having to legally account for these and other misdeeds because a sure-thing successor waited in the wings. The perpetrators, both elected and appointed, would not be held to account by a friendly successor Administration.

The surprising results of the 2016 Presidential campaign terrified the perpetrators, who were suddenly vulnerable to exposure and prosecution.  In all other instances when an administration was replaced by one from a different party or ideology the retired leader and his appointees quietly moved on, and their party looked forward to the next election.

That wouldn’t work for the Obama Administration.  The legal exposure was vast and deadly serious. It wasn’t just political embarrassment or job loss that would result.  For some, penalties including jail time could be their fate. When Trump won, that left one alternative for those whose lives were on the line:  to somehow delegitimize the new government.

Doing so would be a very hard sell, and besides, even if both the President and Vice President were somehow tossed from office, the Speaker of the House, another Republican, would become the new president. The GOP itself had to be delegitimized, so that they would lose the 2018 midterms and a Democrat would be the new speaker.  Ginning up false and overblown controversies, including the Russian Collusion and other artificial charges, was the path chosen.

Democrats and their media allies term it a “Resistance,” a much more palatable term than what it really is—an attempt at a coup.
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The key wrongdoers eagerly push the concept.  Obama tossed aside all precedent and remained active in public affairs.  Hillary Clinton touts the idea of Trump being unqualified.  The former heads of the FBI and the CIA, as well as their key underlings, many of whom were the most legally vulnerable, desperately worked the talk show and press circuit.  A sympathetic media ignores astounding acts, such as former CIA chief John Brennan’s admonition to federal employees to ignore Presidential directives. Some elected officials fail to condemn violent riots and outright talk of assassination by misguided celebrities.

No one is asking what the “Resistance” is resisting.  Simply disagreeing with the policies of the elected government is not “resistance;” it’s the consequence of losing at the ballot box.

In the two years since the 2016 election, we have seen, in addition to the antics of partisan current and former members of the FBI, CIA, and the Department of Justice, a former Secretary of State, John Kerry, roam the globe telling allies and adversaries to ignore the current U.S. government, and the radical 9th Circuit Court of Appeals seek (unsuccessfully) to overturn legitimate presidential power.  Coordinated efforts by Democrat-friendly media and entertainment outlets have sought to create a wholly unsubstantiated sense of crisis.

This is not the vigorous policy fights and harsh campaign rhetoric that are the business as usual of politics.  They are the desperate measures of those seeking to overturn an election in order to avoid exposure of their wrongdoing and the consequences that would follow.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Japan Rises to its Defense, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its examination of the military threats facing Japan. 

TOKYO’S RESPONSE

Japan has begun to respond by cautiously increasing its defensive forces, although it continues to debate the extent it can do so and not exceed the limits of its Post WW2 Peace Constitution.  There is debate on whether the portions of that constitution denying Japan the ability to develop a more conventional military posture should be repealed.

Aki Nakai writes in The Diplomat  Warfare that Japan’s next National Defense Program Guidelines will address the nation’s need to expand its capabilities to fight against threats both in the cyber sphere as well as in outer space.

Japan officially describes  its defense planning in this way:

“Japan will build a comprehensive defense architecture, and actively promote bilateral and multilateral security cooperation with other countries while strengthening the Japan-U.S. Alliance, thereby seeking to establish an infrastructure necessary for fully exercising its defense capabilities.

Under the Constitution, Japan will efficiently build a highly effective and joint defense force in line with the basic principles of maintaining an exclusively defense oriented policy, not becoming a military power that poses a threat to other countries, while adhering to the principle of civilian control of the military and observing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

“Additionally, with regard to the threat of nuclear weapons, the extended deterrence provided by the United States is indispensable. Japan will closely cooperate with the United States, and take appropriate responses through its own efforts. In addition, Japan will play a constructive and active role in international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.

“Given the increasingly severe security environment, Japan will efficiently develop a highly effective joint defense force and make efforts to employ it with a high level of flexibility and readiness based on joint operations. In the event of various situations, Japan will appropriately and promptly make decisions and seamlessly respond to situations as they unfold, in a whole-of-the-government approach, in coordination with local governments, private sectors, and others. Furthermore, Japan will continue to develop various systems to respond to a variety of disasters and protect its people, and will enhance the capability to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals in foreign countries in an emergency situation.

“Japan will achieve intelligence superiority through persistent ISR activities in an extensive surrounding area to detect any signs of development at an early stage. Through such activities, Japan will clearly express its resolve not to tolerate any change of the status quo by force, thereby preventing various situations from occurring. At the same time, Japan will swiftly and seamlessly respond to situations from an early stage, including grayzone situations, and establish the necessary posture to continuously address a protracted situation. Moreover, Japan will implement an effective response tailored to each situation, even in cases when multiple events occur in a consecutive or concurrent manner. In particular, the following points will be emphasized: (1) ensuring security of the sea and airspace surrounding Japan; (2) response to an attack on remote islands; (3) response to ballistic missile attacks; (4) responses in outer space and cyberspace; and (5) responses to major disasters.”

Architecture of Each Service of the Self-Defense Forces 

 Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) In order to respond swiftly to an attack on offshore islands and various other situations, the GSDF will maintain rapidly deployable basic operational units (rapid deployment divisions, rapid deployment brigades, and an armored division) furnished with advanced mobility and ISR capabilities. In addition, the GSDF will maintain mobile operating units capable of effectively performing amphibious and other operations. The GSDF will maintain half of these rapidly deployable basic operational units in Hokkaido, given its excellent training environment. The GSDF will implement rationalization and streamlining with a particular focus on tanks/howitzers and rockets, and review the organization and equipment of units. The number of GSDF personnel will be maintained at around 159,000, which was the same level as at the end of FY2013, in order to ensure suffi \cient personnel availability to respond to major disasters or other situations.

  • Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) The MSDF will increase the number of destroyers to 54 (14 escort divisions) by using new destroyers that offer improved response capabilities for various missions and have more compact designs, and will maintain ship-based patrol helicopter units in order to secure the defense of surrounding waters and ensure the safety of maritime traffi c. Furthermore, two Aegis destroyers will be added, bringing the fl eet to eight. Furthermore, in order to effectively carry out regular information gathering and warning and surveillance activities, as well as patrolling of surrounding waters7 and defense operations, the MSDF will maintain an augmented submarine fleet and patrol aircraft units.

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 Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) The ASDF will maintain air warning and control units in order to provide persistent ISR in most air space over Japan and the surrounding areas. By consolidating warning and control operations at air defense command centers, the ASDF will gradually change warning groups into warning squadrons as well as establish one new squadron in the air warning unit. As for Fighter Aircraft Units, the 13th squadron will be newly established, and Air Reconnaissance Unit will be abolished. In addition, one squadron will be added to the Aerial Refueling/Transport Unit, making it a twosquadron architecture. Furthermore, the ASDF will maintain surface-toair guided missile units providing multi-layered defense for Japan against ballistic missile attacks, together with the Aegis destroyers, as well as protecting key areas in tandem with the surface-to-air guided missile units of the GSDF.”

 Central to all Tokyo’s planning is its partnership with the United States, particularly in the realm of nuclear deterrence.

Photo:  Senior-level meeting between GSDF Chief of Staff General Iwata, the commander of the U.S. Army Pacific and the commander of the III Marine Expeditionary Force (JSDF Photo)