Month: September 2018

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Campaign Regulation Debate Renewed

After over a year of investigation that was initiated by charges of Russian collusion based on partisan Democrat research (brought before a judge, who was not informed of the partisan nature of the evidence by a federal law enforcement agency that has now been shown to have highly partisan personnel in key positions) it seems that the only truly legal charges concern what some in the Mueller camp believe to be a potential violation of a campaign finance law. Most campaign finance violations result in only a civil fine.

According to one theory, any funds paid to guarantee silence about Donald Trump’s pre-presidential affairs with two females constituted a campaign expenditure that should have been reported. However, even if true, it is highly debatable whether this would have constituted a violation of campaign finance laws, since funds that come from the candidate himself are not subject to the same restrictions as those donated.

Attorney and radio host Mark Levine, speaking on Fox News’ Hannity program and quoted in realclearpolitics reasons that President Trump’s use of former attorney Michael Cohen as a go-between to pay women hush money is not a campaign contribution and there is no campaign law violation. Levin explained that “a candidate who spends money on an event that occurred not as a result of the campaign is not a campaign expenditure.”

The issue has brought the contentious issue of campaign finance regulation back to the public’s attention. There have been extensive analyses that indicate that campaign finance restrictions violate First Amendment rights.

Over two decades ago, testifying on behalf of the CATO Institute, Bradley Smith, addressing a Congressional Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on the Constitution, noted: “we should scrap most all of the present system of campaign finance regulation, remembering the admonition of the First Amendment to the Constitution, that Congress shall make no law abridging the rights of free speech…I think it is important to briefly remind ourselves that, for most of this country’s history, the funding of political campaigns has been totally or largely unregulated. During our nation’s first century, the era which produced as presidents Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Grover Cleveland, James Knox Polk, and Andrew Jackson, and which saw giants such as Daniel Webster, Henry Clay, John Quincy Adams, and John C. Calhoun serve in Congress, there were literally no laws regulating campaign finance. And today, we often look back on that century as a golden age of politics — one in which memorable debates over such monumental issues as slavery and western expansion were discussed in serious campaigns, one in which people talked and debated these issues, one in which politics was marked by mass rallies and torchlight parades, and one in which voter turnout was considerably higher than it is today… Deregulation of campaign finance, not added regulation, is the proper course of action.”
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Research indicates that campaign regulation efforts have not achieved the goal of reducing the influence of money in politics.

A study by the CATO institute found that “…there is no serious evidence that campaign finance regulation has achieved or will achieve its goals of reducing the influence of money, opening up the political system, and lowering the cost of campaigns.  Indeed, since the 1974 amendments to the Federal Election Campaign Act, spending has risen sharply, the number of political action committees and the amount of PAC spending are up, and incumbents have increased both their election rate and the rate at which they outspend their challengers.” 

Campaign regulation, particularly in the distribution of public funds to aid campaigns, has been abused in a number of ways. In some localities, New York City being a significant example, local Campaign Finance Boards have used their authority to heavily and unlawfully influence the outcome of elections and enhance the power of political bosses.  In one extraordinary example, a candidate for New York City Council was a former State Assemblyman who had challenged the powerful Assembly Speaker, Sheldon Silver, frequently criticized for his iron rule and conflict of interest activities. Silver was eventually convicted and sentenced to prison, The candidate was clearly not a favorite of the city’s political establishment. A highly irregular application of an ex post facto regulation was devised to deprive the candidate of funds, and to extract a penalty as well.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

Photo: Pixabay

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The Dangerous Delusion of Free Tuition, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its study of the free tuition concept with a review of why tuition is so expensive, 

Largely ignored is the question of why college tuition has become so unaffordable.

In a CNN study, Julia Freeland Fisher “Rather than ratcheting up aid to meet ever-increasing price tags, we must get at the root of the affordability crisis by addressing the most fundamental component of any organization: the business model. … a closer look at the traditional business model of higher education reveals a stockpile of embedded inefficiencies and warped incentives… Troubling inefficiencies have also arisen out of a subset of colleges’ attempts to compete on the basis of infamously indulgent non-academic offerings — rock climbing walls, lazy rivers and extravagant student housing facilities, to name a few — intended to lure students, …In 2012, there were at least 157 recreational projects in progress at 92 U.S. colleges, representing more than $1.7 billion in new construction and renovation. These costs are inevitably passed along to students…”

A Business Insider report found that the average annual increase in college tuition from 1980-2014 grew by nearly 260% compared to the nearly 120% increase in all consumer items.  A Brookings study revealed that: “Education costs have soared…College tuition, net of subsidies, is 11.1 times higher in 2015 than in 1980, dramatically higher than the 2.5 increase in overall personal consumption over the period.

The Brookings analysis also revealed one key reason why those costs have gone up: the extraordinary growth in the number of high-paid, non-teaching positions within universities. Brookings found that “In 1988, for every 100 full-time equivalent students, there were on average 23 college employees. By 2012, that number had increased to 31 employees, with a shift toward the highest paying non-teaching occupations. Managers and professionals now outnumber faculty, who comprise just a third of the higher education workforce.”

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“In 2011, the last year for which figures are available, 42 private college and university presidents received more than a million dollars each for their work.  Robert Zimmer (University of Chicago) was the best-paid, at $3,358,723.  At public colleges and universities, nine top administrators garnered more than $1 million each in 2012-2013, with the best-paid, E. Gordon Gee (Ohio State University), receiving $6,057,615…In addition to their formal compensation, college and university presidents receive some very lavish perks.  These include not only free luxury cars and country club memberships, but free university housing.

“The soaring incomes of campus administrators are paralleled by their soaring numbers.  Between 1993 and 2009, their numbers reportedly increased by 60 percent, to 230,000―ten times the rate of growth of the faculty.   According to a February 2014 report by the American Institutes for Research, between 1987 and 2012 the number of administrators at private universities doubled, while their numbers in central university system offices rose by a factor of 34.

While those nonteaching positions are a burden on tuition payers, they are good for the same politicians who push for more people to go to college. Sara Swann, writing for Open Secrets  reports “For the 2016 election cycle, the education industry had a record-high contribution total of almost $81 million. Nearly all of this money is donated by school employees… Democrats received 86 percent … Since 1990, the education industry has never given less than 58 percent of its contributions to Democrats, with an overall average of 77 percent going to the left.” The two most prominent presidential candidates advocating for college for all received extensive support from the education industry.  Published sources reveal that Hillary Clinton took in about $23.7 million, while Bernie Sanders  Her primary challenger pulled in $5.5 million. By contrast,  Donald Trump only received $778,000.

Photo: State University of New York at Albany (NY Analysis photo)

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The Dangerous Delusion of Free Tuition

The promise of free tuition has become a favorite campaign theme of many politicians.  New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo, facing a primary battle from a celebrity opponent to his left, is providing a version of that in his state.   The odds are it will cause more harm than good. The free tuition idea follows another political error, that of the federal government subsidizing student loans. That resulted in universities charging higher rates.

The appeal, not only to potential university students, but to young adults burdened with debts from unjustifiably high tuition for an education that failed to get them a well-paying job is obvious.  The politics, not just for Cuomo, but for presidential contenders such as Bernie Sanders who have made this type of program the centerpiece of their platform, are appealing, but the results for students and their cash-strapped families, far less so.

There has been little discussion about how a state that continues to produce underperforming students at the grammar and high school levels and that imposes a tax burden that is chasing residents to other jurisdictions will afford the idea. There has been inadequate acknowledgement that the push, over the past few decades, for every student to attend college has simply resulted in the replacement of the requirement of a high school degree with that of a college degree, without any commensurate increase in either the pay or prestige of those positions.

Making college free for all will certainly increase enrollment, which has already expanded significantly.   The National Center for Education Statistics reports that about 20 million people attended college in 2017, and that figure is expected to grow regardless of public financing schemes. Governing magazine  noted that former President Obama’s College Education for all Goal would have resulted in a stunning doubling of current enrollments. That would have required more personnel and more facilities, driving up costs even further.

The broadening of college participation brings only the illusion of greater learning.  As enrollment has increased, the quality of higher education has decreased. Marc Tucker, writing for Education Week,  noted: “…many community college teachers do not assign much writing at all to their first-year students because they cannot write…for close to 40 percent of our college students, the first two years of college add virtually no value at all, and ‘not much’ value for the rest…colleges are typically teaching most students what we used to teach in the high school college-bound track and are not doing it very well…What I have just described amounts to an across-the-board collapse of standards in American education over the last 40 to 45 years…”

A Burning Glass report found that occupations historically dominated by workers without a college degree now require one.  Employers now require bachelor’s degrees for a wide range of jobs, but the shift has been dramatic for some of the occupations historically dominated by workers without a college degree. The credential gap can amount to 25 percentage points or more for middle skill jobs in some occupational families, like Office and Administrative and Business and Financial Operations. For example, 65% of postings for Executive Secretaries and Executive Assistants now call for a bachelor’s degree. Only 19% of those currently employed in these roles have a B.A.

  • In some roles, employers prefer bachelor’s credentials even when that makes the position harder to fill. For example, Construction Supervisor positions that require a B.A. take 61 days to fill on average, compared to 28 days for postings that don’t require a bachelor’s degree.
  • In other occupations, such as entry level IT help desk positions, the skill sets indicated in job postings don’t include skills typically taught at the bachelor’s level, and there is little difference in skill requirements for jobs requiring a college degree from those that do not. Yet the preference for a bachelor’s degree has increased. This suggests that employers may be relying on a B.A. as a broad recruitment filter that may or may not correspond to specific capabilities needed to do the job.
  • Jobs resist credential inflation when there are good alternatives for identifying skill proficiency. Many health care and engineering technician jobs, such as Respiratory Therapists6 , show little sign of upcredentialing. That is likely because those positions are governed by strict licensing or certification standards, well-developed training programs, or by measurable skill standards such that employers do not need to look at a college degree as a proxy for capability.

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The Report Concludes Monday.

Illustration: Harvard’s Widener Library (NY Analysis Photo)

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CATO ranks Most Free, Least Free States

The Cato Institute has published its 2018 edition of “Freedom in The 50 States.” Using 230 criteria, it ranks the states based on how their policies promote freedom.

According to the study, the top five free states are:

  1. Florida
    2. New Hampshire
    3. Indiana
    4. Colorado
    5. Nevada

The five least free states were:

  1. Maryland
    46. Vermont
    47. New Jersey
    48. California
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    50. New York

New Hampshire was ranked as “the most improved state.”

According to the study, “New York has been the least free state in the country for a long time. Economic freedom is the most significant weakness, but the state has not kept up with the rest of the country on personal freedom either.

“The only fiscal policy area where New York is not below average is the ratio of government to private employment, where the state has actually improved significantly since the early 2000s. The government GDP ratio has scarcely fallen over that same time period, suggesting that New York pairs relatively low government employment with high salaries and benefits for public employees. New York’s local tax burden is twice that of the average state: 8.5 percent of income in FY 2015. This is a dramatic rise from the early 2000s, when it was 7 percent. However, New Yorkers have ample choice in local government: 2.9 competing jurisdictions per 100 square miles. The state tax burden, at a projected 6.8 percent of income in FY 2017, is also higher than the national average. Debt is the highest in the country at 31.2 percent of income, and liquid assets are less than half that, at 14.2 percent of income.  New York is also the worst state on regulatory policy, although here it is at least within striking distance of number 49. Land-use freedom is very low, primarily because of the economically devastating rent control law in New York City. Local zoning is actually fairly moderate compared with surrounding states not named “Pennsylvania.” Renewable portfolio standards are high. The state enacted a minimum wage in 2013–14 and also has a short-term disability insurance mandate. Cable and telecommunications are unreformed. Occupational freedom is a bit subpar, but nurse practitioners did gain some independence in 2013–14. Insurance freedom is a mixed bag (the state has stayed out of the Interstate Insurance Product Regulation Compact), but property and casualty insurers gained some freedom to set rates in 2013–14. The civil liability system looks poor, but we may underrate it slightly because of the state’s large legal sector… New York is perhaps the worst state for homeschoolers, and it has no private or public school choice programs…Gun rights are hedged about with all kinds of restrictions…”

California, ranked as one of the least free states, came in for particular criticism.

“California is one of the least free states in the country, largely because of its long-standing poor performance on economic freedom. Given this, it is likely no surprise that the Golden State is the most cronyist state in the union. It has long suffered from a wide disparity between its economic freedom and personal freedom ranking, but it is not as if the state is a top performer in the latter dimension… California is one of the highest-taxed states in the country. California’s combined state and local tax collections were 10.8 percent of adjusted personal income. Moreover, because of the infamous Serrano decision on school funding, California is a fiscally centralized state. Local taxes are about average nationally, while state taxes are well above average. Government debt is high, at 20.9 percent of personal income…Regulatory policy is even more of a problem for the state than fiscal policy. California is one of the worst states on land-use freedom…eminent domain reform has been nugatory. The state even mandates speech protections in privately owned shopping malls. Labor law is anti-employment, with no right-to-work law, high minimum wages, strict workers’ compensation mandates, mandated short-term disability insurance, stricter-than-federal anti-discrimination law, and prohibitions on consensual noncompete agreements. Occupational licensing is extensive and strict, especially in construction trades. The state is tied for worst in nursing practice freedom…California is one of the worst states for consumers’ freedom of choice in homeowner’s and automobile insurance.

“California is a classic left-wing state on social issues. Gun rights are among the weakest in the country and have been weakened consistently over time. It was one of the first states to adopt a smoking ban on private property, but other states have since leap-frogged California in their restrictiveness, and tobacco taxes are actually a bit lower than average. California was an early leader on cannabis liberalization, fell behind in recent years, and has again become the top state for marijuana freedom with the 2016 passage of Proposition 64 legalizing the cultivation, sale, and possession of marijuana. Alcohol is not as strictly regulated as in most other states and booze taxes are relatively low. Physician-assisted suicide was legalized in 2015. Private school choice programs are nonexistent, and the state risks falling behind its neighbors Nevada and Arizona as an education entrepreneur. There is some public school choice, and homeschooling is moderately regulated.”

Illustration: U.S. Geographical Survey

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Foreign Policy Update

North KOrea

Diplomacy simply put is a war of words fought across the negotiating table, on Twitter, and in the halls of governments around the world rather than on a physical battlefield. These verbal skirmishes explain the US-North Korean relationship, where a single translated phrase could mean the difference between bloody conflict and potential peace on the peninsula. Washington’s discussions this summer with Pyongyang resemble an extended shuttlecock volley, or the long game in tennis, played from the baseline with each side taking shots repeatedly at their opponent to test commitment and the other side’s ability to enforce its policy.

President Trump warned Americans earlier this year we were playing a long game. He announced he was going to attempt progress toward resolving the conflict on the Korean peninsula. And we did witness some advances by this summer. Fifty-five sets of Vietnam war remains were returned to the US and the North began disassembling its Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

President Kim, however, did not stop his country’s production of fissile material nor did he cease upgrading the plutonium producing reactor at Yongbyon. The North also continued constructing facilities at Sanumdong for the production of ballistic missiles.

The North’s latest verbal volley this week, in which the regime sent a belligerent letter to Washington, explains why President Trump needed to cancel abruptly upcoming talks scheduled between Secretary of State Pompeo and General Kim Yong Chol. In the last few months of this “war by other means” Washington witnessed Pyongyang call talks with the United States “regrettable” and label the US as having a “gangster-like mindset.”

In response to the lack of forward progress, the President lobbed it back into the North’s court. In a statement issued this week the White House updated the status of President Trump’s efforts to denuclearize North Korea.

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“Nonetheless, the President believes that his relationship with Kim Jong Un is a very good and warm one, and there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games. Besides, the President can instantly start the joint exercises again with South Korea, and Japan, if he so chooses. If he does, they will be far bigger than ever before. As for the U.S.–China trade disputes, and other differences, they will be resolved in time by President Trump and China’s great President Xi Jinping. Their relationship and bond remain very strong.”

In diplomatic parlance the US President is providing the North Korean President room to save face domestically and, perhaps, to create a new opening to move forward toward achieving Washington’s ultimate goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. At the same time President Trump is standing firm by putting the North on notice that Washington is capable of changing the game and restarting military exercises at any point should the North behave badly.

President Kim is known for violating commitments he makes in face-to-face meetings. The reality today is that he is not giving up the North’s nuclear weapons. It appears he believes his weapons of mass destruction are what brought the US to the game and Pyongyang a front seat on the world stage. As long as the shuttlecock is in play the battlefield will likely remain a war of words. Pyongyang received this week’s message. Washington is patient but the United States is no paper tiger.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay