Month: August 2018

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Chinese Military Power Examined, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its summary of the The U.S. Department of Defense’s annual examination of China’s military power. The second part of key sections of the Executive Summary is provided, below.

THE U.S.-CHINA BILATERAL DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP IN CONTEXT

The 2017 National Security Strategy, the 2018 National Defense Strategy, and the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review  recognize  the  growing  trend  of  military competition in a dynamic security environment. The United States will continue to seek areas of cooperation with competitors, while preserving the ability to compete successfully from a position of strength. The United States seeks a constructive and results- oriented relationship with China. U.S. defense contacts and exchanges conducted in 2017 were designed to support overall U.S. policy and strategy toward China. They are carefully tailored to clarify and develop areas of cooperation where it is in our mutual interest and to manage and reduce risk; contacts are also conducted in accordance with the statutory limitations of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000.

While the Department of Defense engages substantively with the People’s Liberation Army, DoD will also continue to monitor and adapt to China’s evolving military strategy, doctrine, and force development, and encourage China to be more transparent about its military modernization. The United States will adapt its forces, posture, investments, and operational concepts to ensure it retains the ability to defend the homeland, deter aggression, protect our allies and partners, and preserve regional peace, prosperity, and freedom.

 SPECIAL TOPIC: OVERWATER BOMBER OPERATIONS

The PLA has long been developing air strike capabilities to engage targets as far away from China as possible. Over the last three years, the PLA has rapidly expanded its overwater bomber operating areas, gaining experience in critical maritime regions and likely training for strikes against U.S. and allied targets. The PLA may continue to extend its operations beyond the first island chain, demonstrating the capability to strike U.S. and allied forces and military bases in the western Pacific Ocean, including Guam. Such flights could potentially be used as a strategic signal to regional states, although the PLA has thus far has not been clear what messages such flights communicate beyond a demonstration of improved capabilities.

Western Pacific. PLA aircraft first operated beyond the first island chain in 2013, when a PLAN ASCM- capable H-6G bomber transited through the Bashi Channel; however, the H-6G bomber lacks the range and endurance to patrol the western Pacific Ocean effectively and strike key U.S. and allied facilities. China began to field the longer-range H-6K bomber in 2013, incorporating cruise missile pylons to turn the bomber into a stand-off strike platform. The H-6K’s capabilities provided the PLAAF an offensive strike capability against Guam with LACMs.
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The PLAAF began flying the H-6K past the First Island Chain into the western Pacific Ocean in 2015, alternating transits through the Miyako Strait and the Bashi Channel and flying within LACM range of Guam. In 2016, the PLAAF improved its capabilities by adding AWACS and fighter aircraft to its bomber flight packages to provide defensive counter-air protection of the bombers beyond the first island chain.

In 2016, the PLAAF also circumnavigated Taiwan for the first time by passing through both the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel in the same mission, and significantly increased the number of circumnavigation missions in 2017. In addition to long-range flight plans, future H-6 missions may also target Taiwan. Depending on the weapons load, potential future H-6 missions could include anti- ship or shorter-range strikes targeting eastern Taiwan from all directions or supporting a blockade. Currently, such missions are vulnerable without defense counter-air support provided by fighters traveling along the route with the bombers.

South China Sea. In 2016, China began flying H-6K missions in the South China Sea, probably as far as Scarborough Reef, conducting maritime patrols and ISR. H-6s could, if deployed to airfields in the Spratly Islands, extend their range through the Balabac Strait into the Celebes Sea or through the Sunda or Malacca Strait to fly into the Indian Ocean.

Sea of Japan. In August 2016, two PLAN H-6 bombers accompanied by a Y-8 AEW&C aircraft conducted the first PLA flights into the Sea of Japan. In January 2017, they flew the same route, this time with six bombers supported by two reconnaissance aircraft. In August 2017, the PLAAF further expanded the PLA’s operating area by sending six PLAAF H-6K bombers through the Miyako Strait, and for the first time,  turned north to fly east of Okinawa and as far north as the Kii Peninsula. These flights demonstrated a maturing capability for H-6K bombers to conduct off-axis strikes against U.S. and allied facilities. Previously demonstrated flight endurance of the PLAAF H-6K suggest future missions could fly around Japan, along the Philippines’ coast, and use a wider area of operations throughout the Philippine Sea than current operations by Chinese aircraft.

Photo: Chinese forces train for amphibious attacks. (Chinese Ministry of Defense)

 

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Chinese Military Power Examined

The U.S. Department of Defense has provided its annual examination of China’s military power to Congress. The Executive Summary is provided, below. A discussion on Chinese pilots training to target the U.S. will be provided tomorrow

ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018

Executive Summary

WHAT IS CHINA’S STRATEGY?

Since 2002, Chinese leaders – including President Xi Jinping – have characterized the 21st century’s initial two decades as a “period of strategic opportunity.” They assess that international conditions during this time will facilitate domestic development and the expansion of China’s “comprehensive national power.” The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has distilled these objectives into President Xi’s “China Dream of national rejuvenation” to establish a powerful and prosperous China.

GROWING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRESENCE

China’s leaders increasingly seek to leverage China’s growing economic, diplomatic, and military clout to establish regional preeminence and expand the country’s international influence. “One Belt, One Road,” now renamed the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), is intended to develop strong economic ties with other countries, shape their interests to align with China’s, and deter confrontation or criticism of China’s approach to sensitive issues. Countries participating in BRI could develop economic dependence on Chinese capital, which China could leverage to achieve its interests. For example, in July 2017, Sri Lanka and a Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) signed a 99-year lease for Hambantota Port, following similar deals in Piraeus, Greece, and Darwin, Australia.

A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO MANAGING REGIONAL DISPUTES

China seeks to secure its objectives without jeopardizing the regional stability that remains critical to the economic development that has helped the CCP maintain its monopoly on power. However, China is also willing to employ coercive measures – both military and non-military – to advance its interests and mitigate opposition from other countries. For example, in 2017, China used economic and diplomatic pressure, unsuccessfully, in an attempt to urge South Korea to reconsider the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

In its regional territorial and maritime disputes, China continued construction of outposts in the Spratly Islands, but also continued outreach to South China Sea claimants to further its goal of effectively controlling disputed areas. China also maintained a consistent coast guard presence in the Senkakus. In June 2017, India halted China’s efforts to extend a road in territory disputed with Bhutan near the India border, resulting in a protracted standoff lasting more than 70 days. In August, India and China agreed to withdraw their military forces from the vicinity of the standoff; however, both countries maintain a heightened military presence in the surrounding region.

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In support of the goal to establish a powerful and prosperous China, the “China Dream” includes a commitment to developing military power commensurate with that of a great power. Chinese military strategy documents highlight the requirement for a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) able to secure Chinese national interests overseas, including a growing emphasis on the importance of the maritime and information domains, offensive air operations, long-distance mobility operations, and space and cyber operations.

The PLA is undergoing the most comprehensive restructure in its history to become a force capable of conducting complex joint operations. The PLA strives to be capable of fighting and winning “informatized local wars” – regional conflicts defined by real-time, data-networked command and control, and precision strike. Reforms seek to streamline command and control structures and improve jointness at all levels. Personnel cuts likely targeted non-combat personnel and rebalanced the preponderance of forces away from the PLA Army (PLAA).

Training continued to focus on executing large-scale, complex joint operations. This included increasing exercise realism by evaluating unit performance during force-on- force confrontations against dedicated opposing-force units, strengthening strategic campaign training, and executing long-distance maneuvers and mobility operations. The CCP also continued vigorous efforts to root out corruption in the armed forces.

China’s leaders continued to advance an ambitious military modernization and organizational reform agenda to achieve those requirements. China’s military modernization targets capabilities with the potential to degrade core U.S. operational and technological advantages. To support this modernization, China uses a variety of methods to acquire foreign military and dual- use technologies, including targeted foreign direct investment, cyber theft, and exploitation of private Chinese nationals’ access to these technologies. Several recent cases and indictments illustrate China’s use of intelligence services, computer intrusions, and other illicit approaches to obtain national security and export-restricted technologies, controlled equipment, and other materials.

Additionally, as China’s global footprint and international interests have grown, its military modernization program has become more focused on investments and infrastructure to support a range of missions beyond China’s periphery, including power projection, sea lane security, counterpiracy, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR), and noncombatant evacuation operations. In August 2017, China officially opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, deploying a company of marines and equipment to the base. China likely will seek to establish additional military logistics facilities in countries with which it has longstanding, friendly relationships.

CONTINUED POLITICAL AND SECURITY PREPARATIONS VIS-A-VIS TAIWAN

China’s overall strategy continues to incorporate elements of both persuasion and coercion to hinder the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence. Taiwan lost an additional diplomatic partner in 2017, and international fora denied participation or observership to representatives from Taiwan. While China advocates for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, China has never repudiated the use of military force, and continues to develop and deploy advanced military capabilities needed for a potential military campaign. Taiwan’s 2017 National Defense Report cited concerns that increased PLA military activity near Taiwan pose an “enormous threat to security in the Taiwan Strait.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow, with a Special Section in which the Department of Defense discusses the training of Chinese pilots to strike the U.S.

Photo: Chinese Air Force aerobatics team departs for performance in Russia (Chinese Ministry of Defense photo)

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HARRY POTTER POLITICS

The worrisome disconnect between Americans of differing views is far more than just a battle of ideologies. Increasingly, the issue is not merely Democrat against Republican, or liberal against conservative. The divide now appears to be reality versus magical thinking.

America endures a $21 trillion national debt and adds to it with substantial annual deficits each year. Key existing social programs such as Social Security and Medicare are heading towards bankruptcy. The American Society of Civil Engineers rates the national infrastructure as only D+. Growing threats from abroad require significant increases in defense spending.

Despite that, a bevy of astronomically expensive programs are being seriously proposed, unhinged from all fiscal practicality. Politicians, of course, have always been free with absurd promises that they know can’t be kept, but the current crop of unaffordable ideas is gaining serious traction. The 2010 passage of Obamacare leads many to believe that further massive social programs can be enacted, if there are sufficient votes in Congress.   Financial responsibility is considered almost inappropriate to mention.

Questions about affordability are responded to with a simplistic call to raise taxes. But there is no effective way to pay for these things by increasing taxes. There is not enough income to be taxed at levels which would not destroy the economy. An attempt to do so would chase businesses and jobs out of the country, ultimately producing less, not more, Treasury collections.

In essence, tax increases are like Harry Potter’s magic wand.  Don’t try to find the logic in it, just accept the magic.

Consider some of the more salient unaffordable ideas currently in vogue.

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Free college tuition is an idea passionately advocated by many, especially young adults burdened with debts from unjustifiably high tuition for an education that failed to secure them a well-paying job. New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo has announced a plan to provide free college tuition.  Residents of his state are already taxed at a rate that chases people and businesses out. Where will the funds come from?

Extending free medical care and free tuition to U.S. citizens would be fiscally impossible, so why not provide those goodies to illegal immigrants as well? Examining the impact of California’s inclusion of illegals in the state’s generous benefits, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIRUS)  reports: “The annual expenditure of state and local tax dollars on services for that population is $25.3 billion. That total amounts to a yearly burden of about $2,370 for a household headed by a U.S. citizen.”

One myth advocated by the free tuition, open borders, and Medicare for all crowd, often unstated in public but discussed with the like-minded, is that drastic cuts in defense spending would finance these concepts.  It’s time to do the math again.  Defense accounts for only about 14% of the total federal budget, and the world isn’t getting any safer.

But don’t worry. A wave of the magic wand of idealism will take care of all that.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Ignorance

“This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both
…but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom.”—The Ghost of Christmas Present, in Charles Dicken’s “A Christmas Carol.” 

The great author could easily have been writing about current-day politics.  The seemingly bridgeless divide between the radical left and just about everyone else is due to the reality that so many “Progressives” have a profound lack of interest in, or have never learned, the lessons of history, civics, and economics.

Jarrett Stepman, writing in The Daily Signal notes that “America is suffering through a crisis in education, especially when it comes to history…Many were horrified when a poll, released in April, showed that two-thirds of millennials don’t know what Auschwitz is, despite the fact that it was the most notorious Nazi death camp in World War II.”

It’s not just The Second World War that has been ignored by the generally-used curricula. Joseph Klein, writing for Newsmax, reports that “the high school curricula increasingly in use today contributes to… students’ ignorance of basic American history and civics. Instead, students are often exposed in these areas of study to principally the leftist perspective. Bad education is contributing to the dumbing down of America. This phenomenon is evidenced by a survey conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center, which found that only ‘a quarter of Americans can name all three branches of government.’ Nearly a third of those surveyed could not even name one branch…Hate merchants thrive on such people, whose intense emotions replace logic and fact-based analysis and can be easily manipulated. The left has been particularly adept at peddling false histories in our schools…”

The ignorance is not the fault of individual teachers.  It is the specific and intentional result of a curriculum designed to portray a negative image of America. The New York Post’s Karol Markowicz  wrote that  “’Don’t know much about history . . .,’ goes the famous song. It’s an apt motto for the Common Core’s elementary school curriculum…A 2012 story in Perspectives on History magazine by University of North Carolina professor Bruce Van Sledright found that 88 percent of elementary school teachers considered teaching history a low priority… Van Sledright also found that teachers just didn’t know enough history to teach it. He wrote there was some ‘holiday curriculum as history instruction,’ but that was it.”

A Blaze commentary reported that George Washington University decided that even history majors did not have to take any courses in American History. And, in 2015, ABC’s KSFY affiliate reported that “the South Dakota Board of Education approved new guidelines that do not require high schools to teach U.S. history.” A Nations Report Card  study found that only 18% of eighth grade students are proficient in U.S. history.

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Increasingly, ignorance has become commonplace in politics. Consider the case of Ms. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who won an upset primary victory for a NYC Congressional district. The New York Times called her “charismatic and rousing.”  She has expressed her belief that America wasn’t founded as a capitalist nation. She has professed ignorance about Middle Eastern politics, but has described Israel as “occupying” Palestine. She believes that “Unemployment is low because everyone has two jobs.” She has stated that the Pentagon didn’t want the recent budget that they diligently sought. When Ben Shapiro offered to debate her on these and other points, she described the invitation as being akin to sexual harassment.

The trouble is, the young and inexperienced lady is hardly alone.  The entire Obama foreign policy, for example, was based on wholly incorrect assumptions about Middle Eastern affairs, a stunning ignorance of great power politics, and a shockingly naïve attitude towards economics, a reality noted even by some of his former supporters.

Ignorance flourishes when the media refuses to expose it.  Since most of the media tilts sharply left, the uninformed views and policies of individuals such as Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders and, yes, Barack Obama are swept under the rug. Remember when President Obama said he had travelled to 57 of the 59 states? Don’t feel bad if you don’t.  Coverage of that gaffe, which would have replayed endlessly if Donald Trump had said it, was, at most, minimal.

Ignorance in government is truly dangerous and harmful, and it is getting more widespread.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Donald Trump: An Analysis

Author and radio host Ben Brunson provides this analysis of President Trump. 

Donald Trump is a unique politician. I believe that description is likely non-controversial and I guess that most, be they on the left or right, would immediately think of his personality in applying the term “unique”. Indeed, be it his straight-forward shoot from the hip approach or his fits of bombastic hyperbole, unique is certainly apropos.

However, my use of the adjective in this case refers to the reaction he engenders. Just like Ronald Reagan, he drives the left into spasms defined by equal parts loathing and fear. This reaction from those who seek the easy path of non-confrontation and appeasement has always been forced by those willing to confront difficult realities. Churchill loudly warned of the evils of Hitler during the 30s and was despised and denigrated mercilessly by the left in England. Thatcher was despised and ridiculed for her willingness to confront and roll-back the rot to England caused by decades of Socialist ideology. Reagan confronted the evils of the Soviet Union and, likewise, was hated by the left and burned in effigy throughout Europe. History has elevated all three, and largely forgotten their detractors, precisely for their clarity of vision and strength of character.

Today, whether it is the willingness to confront a nuclear armed North Korea, a nuclear aspiring Iran or the decades of trade inequities that he inherited, Trump drives the identical reaction from the left.

But none of that makes him unique. Churchill, Thatcher and Reagan had die-hard support from the right, support that was critical – in each case – to their ultimate success and historical vindication. Trump is unique precisely because there are so many on the right, especially among those who constitute the traditional power brokers of the Republican Party, who despise the man every bit as much any progressive liberal in Hollywood. George Will is one. Others are John McCain, the extended Bush family and a large number of Republican congresspeople and thinkers.

How can this be so? After all, Trump presides over a country that has Republicans in control of the White House, the Senate, the House, the Supreme Court and 2/3 of the state’s governors. That is pretty damn impressive in a country in which, just a decade ago, everyone (and I mean everyone on both the left and the right) was certain that the Republican Party was on its death bed demographically.

This is where, for the analysis to be done justice, a digression is demanded. For the last 54 years since the start of the Great Society under Lyndon Johnson, and especially the last 38 years since Reagan took office, the power possessed in Washington DC by the federal government has grown exponentially. This power, manifested in ever growing budgets and the spread – like a metastasizing tumor – of laws and regulations that now touch every aspect of American life, has resulted in the type of wealth concentration only seen historically in the capitals of ancient empires.

A half century ago, the capital was a place people went to serve their nation. While there were always perks to be had, such service by young, bright people (think of the talented up and comers of the Kennedy administration) invariably meant putting lucrative private sector careers on hold. Today, life in Washington DC is a career path – and a potentially very lucrative one at that. Not only is federal pay now substantially higher than the private sector (both in salary and, especially, in health and pension benefits), but our capital has a massive and growing golden pathway. Pay your dues as a congressperson or staffer for a handful of years and the bounties of the lobbying establishment await you. This establishment is an equal opportunity employer. Young or old, black or white, Republican or Democrat, all are welcome. All you need is the right connections and the willingness to knock on doors – the money is lying around and with a little moxie, you too can get your share. In the 1980s, if you had the right stuff, you went to New York to try your hand on Wall Street. Today, you pack your bags for Washington DC.

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If you take your scruples more seriously, don’t worry, Washington DC can accommodate you as well. The city is full of organizations which need intelligent and experienced minds to fill their expanding ranks.  Nonetheless, the same dragon is being fed. Influence legislators and gain favorable legislation in return. The money flows because the returns are there. The fact of this situation – let’s call it a swamp – is that both Republicans and Democrats have a common and converging interest in its growth and resultant wealth redistribution.

Enter Donald Trump, the erstwhile swamp buster. It is the swamp creatures themselves, from both parties, who have now a common enemy, a common point of animus. His name is Trump and he is the first real threat to occupy the Oval Office since the Great Society was kicked off. And this fact makes Trump unique.

Can Donald Trump roll back the swamp alone? Probably not, at least in any meaningful or lasting way. But he can do exactly what he has done: shine an unwelcome light on the swamp and its inhabitants, all of whom much prefer when the country’s attentions are focused on anything other than the current economics driving our capital. That “anything” can range from very serious matters like the nuclear arsenal of a Korean dictator to the inane, like the commentary of Stormy Daniels, to the invented, like a collusion narrative devoid of facts.

Donald Trump possesses many traits that leave us all uncomfortable. The need to puff himself up with inflated reality is at the top of the list. But he also has traits that hint at a great legacy. These traits include clarity of vision and the willingness to speak hard truth. Combined with the ability to forge personal bonds, the type of bonds that big deals are built upon, these latter traits will hopefully prevail for the benefit of all Americans.

In the meantime, the creatures of the swamp will fight back with all the venom they possess.

Ben Brunson is the author of Esther’s Sling and the Falstaff Enigma. He co-hosts the Inside the News radio program.

 

Photo: White House

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Foreign Policy Update

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

North Korea Update:

Steve Biegun has been named as the special representative for North Korea. Steve will direct U.S. policy towards North Korea and lead U.S. efforts achieve the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea, as agreed to by Chairman Kim Jong-un. Biegun and Secretary of State Pompeo was scheduled to traveling to North Korea next week, but President Trump has postponed that until Pyongyang demonstrates greater adherence to eliminating its nuclear program.

Secretary of State Pompeo’s Recent testimony the Senate Foreign Relations Committee:

“For the last few weeks I’ve been engaged in three areas of particular interest to this committee: North Korea, NATO, and Russia.

On the subject of Russia, I want to bring something to your attention right off the bat today. Today, the Trump administration is releasing what we’re calling the Crimea Declaration. I won’t read the whole thing. I will submit it for the record. It’s been publicly released as well. But one part reads as follows: “The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere and to end its occupation of Crimea.” End of quote.

I want to assure this committee that the United States does not and will not recognize the Kremlin’s purported annexation of Crimea. We stand together with allies, partners, and the international community in our commitment to Ukraine and its territorial integrity. There will be no relief of Crimea-related sanctions until Russia returns control of the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine. This Crimea Declaration formalizes United States policy of nonrecognition.

There’s another indicator of diplomatic progress I want to mention. This morning, Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was imprisoned in Turkey for nearly two years, has been let out of jail at Buca. He’s still under house arrest, so our work is not done, but it’s welcome progress – one that many of you have been engaged in and something the State Department has been working on diligently as well. We will continue to work for the speedy return of all Americans unjustly held captive abroad. President Trump will never forget about our own.

Our diplomacy on these issues is advancing the goals of President Trump’s National Security Strategy, which laid down guiding principles for American foreign policy in December. In late April, I started executing on the strategy as Secretary of State. And today, on July 1st – excuse me, today here we are, and I want to present you some progress.

The National Security Strategy established “Protecting the American People, the Homeland, and the American Way of Life” as the pillars of our national security. On July 17th, President Trump stated his firm conviction that “diplomacy and engagement are preferable to conflict and hostility.” These principles have guided our actions on North Korea. President Trump’s diplomacy de-escalated a situation in which the prospect for conflict was rising daily. Americans are safer because of his actions.

As far as the Trump administration’s goals on North Korea are concerned, nothing has changed. Our objective remains the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea, as agreed to by Chairman Kim Jong-un.

As a follow-up to the President’s successful summit with Chairman Kim, on July 5th I traveled to North Korea to make progress on the commitments that were made in Singapore. We are engaged in patient diplomacy, but we will not let this drag out to no end. I emphasized this position in the productive discussions I had with Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol.

President Trump remains upbeat about the prospects for North Korean denuclearization. Progress is happening. We need Chairman Kim Jong-un to follow through on his commitments that he made in Singapore. Until North Korea eliminates its weapons of mass destruction, our sanctions, and those at the United Stations will remain – United Nations – will remain in effect. Multiple UN Security Council resolutions require North Korea to eliminate all of its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs. Those resolutions were passed unanimously, and they remain binding. We absolutely need every single nation to maintain the enforcement of those sanctions to which every nation is committed. The path ahead is not easy, but our hopes for a safer world and a brighter future for North Korea endure.
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The National Security Strategy also calls for “Peace through Strength.” President Trump’s engagement on NATO has resulted in greater burden sharing that will strengthen the entire alliance against myriad conventional and unconventional threats. Allies have spent more than $40 billion in increased defense spending since 2016, and there will be hundreds of millions of – billions of dollars more in the years ahead.

Last year’s $14.4 billion in new spending was a 5.1 percent increase. It was the largest in a generation. Eight allies will meet the 2 percent this year; 18 are on track to do so by ‘24. The Trump administration is demanding that every country make its own commitment.

NATO will remain an indispensable pillar of American national security. We know weakness provokes our enemies, but strength and cohesion protect us. The more every NATO member contributes, the better the alliance can fulfill its mission of deterring threats to each of our nations. This is the increased commitment that the President wants.

From the outset of this administration, the National Defense Strategy and the Russia Integrated Strategy, our approach has been the same: to steadily raise the costs of aggression until Vladimir Putin chooses a less confrontational foreign policy, while keeping the door open for dialogue in our national interest. Between our two nations, the United States and Russia possess over 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. President Trump believes that two great nuclear powers should not have a contentious relationship. This is not just in our interest but in the interest of the whole world. He strongly believes that now is the time for direct communication in our relationship in order to make clear to President Putin that there is the possibility, however remote it might be, to reverse the negative course of our relationship. Otherwise, the administration will continue imposing tough actions against Russia in response to its malign activities.

We can’t make progress on issues of mutual concern unless we are talking about them. I’ve heard many of you on this panel say that for years and years. I’m referring to key issues like stopping terrorism, obtaining peace in Ukraine, stopping the civil war in Syria and delivering humanitarian assistance, ensuring security for Israel, and shutting down all of Iran’s malign activity.

And on the subject of Iran, President Trump has said that “Iran is not the same country it was five months ago.” That’s because our campaign of financial pressure, our withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and our full-throated support for the Iranian people, which I articulated in a speech this past Sunday, are having an impact.

In Helsinki, we sought to explore whether Russia was interested in improving our relationship but made clear that the ball is in Russia’s court. We defended America’s fundamental strategic interests in Syria and Ukraine, and I personally made clear to the Russians there will be severe consequences for interference in our democratic processes.

I would also add that President Trump is well aware of the challenges that Russia poses to the United States and our partners and allies. He’s taken a staggering number of actions to protect our interests. As just a few pieces of proof, I’d like to cite the following: 213 sanctions on Russian entities and individuals in the Trump administration; 60 Russian spies expelled from the United States of America and the closure of Russia’s consulate in Seattle in response to Russia’s chemical weapons use in the United Kingdom; the closure of Russia’s consulate in San Francisco, cutting U.S. diplomatic staffing by Russia by almost 70 percent; 150 military exercises have been led or participated in Europe this year alone; more than 11 billion have been put forward for the European Defense[1] Initiative; we made defensive weapons available to Ukraine and to Georgia; and just last week the Department of Defense – this is after Helsinki – added an additional $200 million in security cooperation funds to Ukraine. None of this happened for the eight years that preceded President Trump…

Finally, I want you to know President Trump has stated that he accepts our intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia meddled in the 2016 election. He has a complete and proper understanding of what happened. I know; I briefed him on it for over a year. This is perfectly clear to me personally. I am also certain he deeply respects the difficult and dangerous work that our patriots in the intelligence community do every single day, and I know that he feels the same way about the amazing people that work at the United States Department of State.

 

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Russia Boasts of New Military Prowess, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its three-part examination of Russia’s extensive military modernization program with a look at how the latest U.S. defense budget is responding to the threat. 

The House Armed Services Committee  specifies how the latest National Defense Authorization Act—the defense spending bill—responds to Moscow’s strengthened armed forces:

Strengthens U.S. Defenses Against Russian Warfare

The NDAA invests in the following capabilities to reassure allies and counter and deter Russian military aggression:

  • A new aircraft carrier, increasing the number of carriers to 12, allowing the Navy to project power and counter Russia more often around the world.
  • 13 battle force ships for the Navy, continuing to grow the surface fleet and project power around the world.
  • 2 Virginia Class submarines, growing the Navy’s subsurface fleet, which counters Russia around the world.
  • Modernization of the nuclear triad by authorizing $250 million for expansion of the submarine industrial base, which supports the development and building of the Columbia class, a key to deterring Russian nuclear aggression.
  • 77 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, 5th generation fighter-attack aircraft to counter Russian air and ground forces.
  • Efforts to modernize Army Armored Brigade Combat Teams (ABCT), including 135 M1 Abrams tanks, 60 Bradley fighting vehicles, 197 Armored multi-purpose vehicles, and 3,390 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles.
  • 45 of the most modernized Paladin self-propelled howitzer artillery systems.
  • 69 Stryker Combat Vehicles.
  • Maintaining the maximum production rate for critical munitions to support deterring Russia.
  • Increased funding to accelerate two key Air Force nuclear modernization programs, the ground based strategic deterrent and the long range stand off cruise missile.
  • Significant funding to research and development for the next generation of missile defense technology.
  • Funding to develop and field low yield nuclear weapons to counter Russian nuclear weapons.

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Strengthen U.S. policy against Russian military aggression:

  • Requires the President to designate an NSC employee to coordinate the interagency fight against malign foreign influence operations, including election interference.
  • Requires the NSC to submit to Congress a strategy for countering malign foreign influence operations.
  • Requests a report on an updated strategy for the Arctic and its defense.
  • Authorizes a total of six polar icebreakers to assure U.S. commercial access to expanding Northern shipping lanes.
  • Directs the Department of Defense to assess its Russian language needs and abilities and develop a plan to address any deficiencies.
  • Strengthens the Global Engagement Center in the State Department by affirming it’s funding for the next two years, increasing its hiring authority, and increasing its responsibilities.
  • Provides for active defense and surveillance against Russian Federation attacks in cyberspace.
  • Requires U.S. based foreign media outlets like RT to register their sources of funding with the FCC.
  • Establishes a DOD initiative to work with academic institutions who perform defense research and engineering activities to protect intellectual property, controlled information, key personnel, and information about critical technologies from malign foreign influence.
  • To get ahead of Russia’s malign influence activities, the NDAA requests reports on Russia’s military relationships with Iran, and Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
  • Requires a report with quarterly updates describing those persons that the President has determined under 2017’s CAATSA sanctions have knowingly engaged in significant transactions with the defense and intelligence sectors of Russia.

 Helps Our Allies Defend Themselves Against Russian Aggression.

  • Authorizes $250M for security assistance and intelligence support to the Government of Ukraine, including lethal defensive weapons.
  • Provides flexibility for strategic partners and allies to move away from the use of Russian military equipment to American equipment through a modified waiver under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
  • Includes $6.3 billion for European Deterrence Initiative to reassure U.S. partners and allies, increase U.S. military presence in Europe, and continue training and exercise throughout Europe to deter Russian aggression.
    • Contributes to the build out of a permanently positioned set of equipment for an ABCT in Europe.
  • Expresses Congress’ strong support for enhanced U.S. presence in and support for our Central, Eastern, and Southern European allies and the NATO alliance.
  • Requires a report on efforts to strengthen U.S. collaboration with NATO’s project to build a comprehensive, cross-domain cyber-defense and deterrence capacity.
  • Commissions a report that examines the consequences of increased Russian interest and destabilizing in Afghanistan.

Limits Contact and Assistance to Russia

  • Extends the limit on military-to-military cooperation with Russia.
  • Prohibits the Department of Defense from spending any funds (authorized in this bill) on activities that would recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea.
  • Prohibits funds for atomic energy defense activities from being used to enter into a contract with, or otherwise provide assistance to, Russia.

Forces Russia To Comply with Treaties It Is Breaching

  • Restricts the Administration from voting to approve new sensor requests under the Open Skies Treaty and withholds funding for upgrades or recapitalization of U.S. Open Skies Treaty aircraft and sensors
  • Funds research and development to counter non-INF Treaty compliant systems being deployed by Russia

Those are positive steps, but they may not be adequate.  Defense News  warns that “America’s 2018 military is a smaller, more expensive force largely operating Desert Storm vintage equipment. The lack of a serious conventional foe in either Iraq or Afghanistan masks the real state of the U.S. military. For example, the Air Force went into the first Gulf War with 134 fighter squadrons in its arsenal; of that, 32 deployed and fought. The average age of those fighters was 10 years. Today, the Air Force has only 55 fighter squadrons, average age of 27 years…Because of readiness gaps, the Air Force couldn’t deploy 32 fighter squadrons today without destroying airplanes and risking aircrew lives… most American’s believe our nation enjoys the same defense-industrial base that served as the “arsenal of democracy” in World War II, capable of scaling up production and innovation when truly needed, or the so-called military-industrial complex that powered the United States through the Cold War. Today, instead of a robust bench of large and mid-sized companies and their myriad small-business suppliers competing and producing new capabilities at the speed of information-age innovation, our defense industry has shrunk to a few standout corporations. This has obscured fragile supply chains that are hampered by a risk-averse government acquisition system that takes 10 years to field a replacement handgun for the services. Should a real national emergency occur, our industrial base does not have the capacity to surge, leaving our defense at significant risk.”

Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense

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Russia Boasts of New Military Prowess, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government contiues its three-part examination of Russia’s extensive military modernization program .

Earlier this year, the Russia Beyond publication discussed Russia’s most hotly anticipated new weapons, which included:

  1. Sarmat Nuclear Missiles. “This will be the biggest and most devastating system in the world … It’s the only missile in the world able to cover 17,000 km before eliminating everything in its path. Every missile will have at least 15 multiple reentry vehicles (MIRV), each with a yield of between 150 and 300 kilotons, enough to blow a crater the size of the Grand Canyon. Hypersonic missiles: Another super hot addition to Russia’s weapons store: The first ever missiles able to hurtle towards their target at 2.5 km/s (eight times faster than the speed of sound). 3. Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets: Experimental machines of this type have already been baptized in Syria to test their devastating power, and the new missiles and bombs specially created for them. 4. The fastest military helicopter in the world: This army chopper will be able to fly at speeds of up to 500 km/h with eight men on board armed to the teeth with devastating weaponry. 5. AK-12 assault rifle: This is the most hotly anticipated rifle, not only in Russia, but all over the world. It’s reminiscent of the AK-74 model and is chambered with the same 5.45 mm rounds, yet the AK-12 models have integrated Picatinny rails top and bottom. This means even regular soldier, not to mention the Special Ops guys, will get advanced optics and flashlights to effectively operate in any conditions.

The article omits discussion of Russia’s massive investment in highly advanced new tanks, such as the Armata. The Task and Purpose publication notes that “Russia’s next-generation battle tank can reportedly out-stick the American armor in a heartbeat — and it’s coming to battlefields sooner than expected..”

Also missing from the article is a review of Moscow’s Borei-A submarines. Sputnik News reports that “Russia’s latest and finest strategic missile-carrying submarine, the Knyaz Vladimir has tactical and technical characteristics that surpass those of the Ohio-class nuclear subs, which constitute the backbone of the US naval deterrent.”

Think tanks and specialized sources have warned of the danger. A Brookings study notes:

“Russia is in the midst of a major modernization of its armed forces… The modernization programs encompass all parts of the Russian military, including strategic nuclear, nonstrategic nuclear and conventional forces.

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“Moscow’s nonstrategic nuclear weapons are more worrisome. To begin with, there is Russia’s violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty by testing a ground-launched cruise missile to intermediate range. While such a missile likely will not pose a direct threat to the United States, it constitutes a treaty violation and would threaten U.S. allies, as well as other countries, in Europe and Asia.

“The outside world has less visibility regarding Russia’s nonstrategic arsenal than Russia’s strategic forces. It appears, however, that the military has developed a range of nonstrategic nuclear capabilities, including cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and aircraft. By contrast, the United States has steadily reduced the number and types of weapons in its nonstrategic nuclear arsenal, which now consists solely of the B61 nuclear bomb.

“Of particular concern is Russia’s apparent focus on low-yield nuclear weapons—which one official has referred to as a ‘nuclear scalpel’—coupled with its nuclear ‘de-escalation’ doctrine. That doctrine envisages escalating to de-escalate, that is, using low-yield nuclear weapons as a means to terminate a conventional conflict on terms favorable to the Kremlin.

“Russia’s unclassified national security strategy says that nuclear weapons would be used only in the event of an attack with weapons of mass destruction on Russia or one of its allies, or in the event of an attack on Russia with conventional forces in which the fate of the state is at stake. The “de-escalation” doctrine, Putin’s references to nuclear weapons in his public statements and the broad modernization of Russia’s nonstrategic nuclear forces suggest that the classified strategy could envisage use of those weapons in wider circumstances.

“That risks lowering the nuclear threshold. And once a nuclear weapon—any nuclear weapon—is used, the possibility of catastrophic escalation would increase dramatically.”

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Illustration: Russian Air Defense System (Russian Defense Forces)

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Russia Boasts of New Military Prowess

In most of the world’s freely elected governments, officials explain their defense budgets almost apologetically. There is a media inclination to frame spending on military needs as an unwanted diversion of funds from civilian programs.

It is startling, therefore, when one reads the pronouncements from Russia and China that boast with considerable pride of their new weapons programs. Much of that language and the related facts are given little air or print space in western news coverage, since it contradicts the political inclinations of broadcast, internet, and print media.

As the United States, under the Obama Administration, limited its defense spending, Moscow and Beijing moved vigorously and rapidly ahead.  That fact alone disproved the oft-stated argument by isolationists and opponents to adequate defense budgets that Russian and Chinese military moves are a response to American actions.

A National Interest article by  Dan Goure notes: “Since the end of the Cold War, chronic under-funding resulted in a [American] military that today is relatively unready, particularly for high-end conflict, and increasingly obsolescent. It also forced many companies to make the painful decision to reduce their research and development (R&D). During this same period…competitors were investing in both traditional defense products and advanced technologies designed to achieve superiority vis-a-vis the U.S. military. Russia, for example, has been engaged in a decade-long, comprehensive program to modernize its conventional force structure. Now it poses a credible threat to NATO. According to the Chief of Staff of the Army, General Mark Milley, ‘U.S. ground forces are  out-ranged by Russian tanks and artillery… we are technically outranged and outgunned.’ Much attention focuses on Russian and Chinese investments in next-generation platforms and weapons designed to give them decisive superiority over the U.S. and its allies.”

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Many of Russia’s technological advances are startling. A Spacewar report revealed that Russian military expert Viktor Baranets specifically touted the unprecedented damage range of Russia’s next-generation S-500 Prometey missile system, “which is currently undergoing state tests.… Pavel Sozinov, chief engineer of the Russian defense corporation Almaz-Antey, said that Russia’s next-generation S-500 surface-to-air missile system would be able to engage targets in the upper layer of the atmosphere, 100 kilometers [62 miles] above the Earth’s surface.… The system can simultaneously intercept up to ten ballistic and hypersonic missiles traveling at a speed of up to 7 kilometers per second. Speaking to Sputnik, Viktor Baranets pointed, in particular, to the unique performance characteristics of the new Russian missile system.According to him, among other things the S-500 system is also designed to destroy combat blocks of hypersonic missiles. He noted that in terms of its characteristics, the S-500 will significantly exceed Russia’s S-400 missile system and its American competitor, the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile system.”

The Russian news source RT proudly states that “Russia has floated its new state-of-the-art nuclear-powered multipurpose submarine called Kazan as its fleet returned to Soviet-era operational levels in terms of sea patrols, according to the Russian Navy chief.  ‘The Yasen-M class nuclear-powered submarine cruisers are some of the most advanced battleships that amassed all cutting-edge submarine shipbuilding technologies,’Admiral Vladimir Korolev, the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, said as the most advanced Russian nuclear attack submarine, Kazan – the second submarine of the Yasen-M class – was launched in the northern Russian port of Severodvinsk…Korolev also said that Russian submarines have reached Soviet Union-era levels in terms of the combat patrols as the vessels had spent some 3,000 days at sea in 2016, adding that ‘it is an excellent level…Last year, we returned to the level we had before the post-Soviet era in terms of the days at sea. Russia’s submarine fleet has spent 3,000 days at sea,’ the admiral said.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Illustration:  Sukhoi-35 (Russian Ministry of Defense)

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John Brennan’s Revenge

Much of the harm incurred by the United States and its middle eastern allies during the Obama Administration, as well as the extraordinary chaos the nation has been drawn into since the election of 2016, appears to be heavily connected to President Obama’s CIA chief John Brennan.

There is startingly little discussion about how the war against ISIS’s control of significant territory, which came into existence and survived throughout the Obama Administration, ended shortly after Obama and Brennan left office. Nor is there notable mention of the increased opposition to Russian aggression that emerged following the prior administration’s departure.

Considering Brennan’s background and views, there is no reason to be surprised.

In 1976, Brennan, the future head of America’s premier intelligence agency, voted for Gus Hall, the Communist Party’s presidential candidate.He was quite vocal in his tilt towards the former Soviet Union. George Neumayr, writing in the American Spectator reported that “Brennan deplored Reagan’s description of the Soviet Union as an evil empire and joined other leftists in demanding that he pursue détente with Marxist thugs…”

Daniel Hoffman, a former CIA chief of station has written in The Hill that: “The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) relies on foreign government partners to share intelligence, not just on Russia but on other enemies, including terrorists and weapons proliferators. Those governments very well may have been so disturbed by Brennan’s statements that they would need reassurance from their U.S. counterparts that Trump and his administration would protect their sensitive intelligence.”

Brennan’s unrealistic attitude towards America’s enemies isn’t limited to Russia. Retired Adm. James A. Lyons, who was commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and senior U.S. military representative to the United Nations wrote in The Washington Times: “The Muslim Brotherhood’s core threat doctrine — the ideology of Islamic jihad and Shariah law — [was] seen as benign. Mr. Brennan’s activities as the president’s top counterterrorism adviser have been at the forefront in the Muslim Brotherhood effort in the United States. The Brotherhood has succeeded in convincing the U.S. government to remove from official documents and training curricula all references to Islamic doctrine, Shariah law and scriptures that relate them to terrorism. Mr. Brennan’s track record of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood both domestically and abroad allowed the jihadist enemy access to the highest level of government under the stealth guise of “nonviolent outreach partners.”
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Brennan has been scathing in his criticism of President Trump, who has reversed Obama’s soft attitude on Russian aggression and Islamic terrorism.

Kimberley Strassel, writing in the Wall Street Journal states: “…the man who deserves a belated bit of scrutiny is former Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan… his role in the 2016 scandal is in some ways more concerning than the FBI’s. Mr. Comey stands accused of flouting the rules, breaking the chain of command, abusing investigatory powers. Yet it seems far likelier that the FBI’s Trump investigation was a function of arrogance and overconfidence than some partisan plot. No such case can be made for Mr. Brennan. Before his nomination as CIA director, he served as a close Obama adviser. And the record shows he went on to use his position—as head of the most powerful spy agency in the world—to assist Hillary Clinton’s campaign (and keep his job). Mr. Brennan has taken credit for launching the Trump investigation.”

Thomas Bake, a retired FBI special agent, recently asked, also in the Wall Street Journal, whether “the Central Intelligence Agency lead the Federal Bureau of Investigation down a rabbit hole in the counterintelligence investigation of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign…John Brennan’s CIA might have directed activity in Britain… what we know about the case’s origin does not meet the threshold required by the attorney general guidelines for opening a counterintelligence case… Although Mr. Brennan has exposed himself as a biased actor, the CIA has escaped criticism for using only thinly sourced information…”

Getting inside information on Brennan isn’t easy. Gregory Johnsen, in a Buzzfeed  article entitled “The Untouchable John Brennan” wrote: “Several former colleagues, particularly in the CIA, refused to talk about him. He is vindictive, one explained through an intermediary: ‘He’ll come after me.’ Another initially agreed to chat and then emailed me back a few days later, writing, ‘Unfortunately, I learned today that, because of my active security clearances and continuing work with the intelligence community, it would be best for me to decline your offer of an interview.’”

This much is clear: John Brennan’s worldview is diametrically opposed to those who worry about American security in the face of Russian threats and Islamic terror. The former CIA chief has both the vindictive inclination and the capability to cause chaos in response to a turn of events that derailed his career. It appears he has done so.