Month: June 2018

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Political Motives of Climate Change Extremists

New York City’s hard-left government (the mayor, Bill di Blasio, had, several decades ago, worked with Nicaragua’s brutal Communist Sandinista  regime, and honeymooned in Cuba) is now seeking to sue major oil companies for “global warming.”

The lawsuit is occurring despite increasing doubts about the accuracy and honesty of those seeking to address claims of man-made global warming (by many of the same sources who warned about global cooling several decades ago.) Not coincidentally, the draconian solutions climate change extremists advocate dovetail with long-held left-wing goals in key areas.

Leftists in NYC and elsewhere have also been harshly critical of President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, despite the fact that the onerous costs related to it would, by all accounts, have at best a barely negligible impact on any potential global warming.

The Associated Press recently reported that District Judge John F. Keenan appears “unimpressed” by NYC’s attempt.

In both the legal and diplomatic spheres, there is increased evidence that claims of a dramatic human impact on climate is based on flawed and biased data, particularly ignoring natural causes of climate change, and the reality that the planet has alternately warmed and cooled in the past, far in advance of any human influence. Temperatures in Europe were warmer than today 1,000 years ago. Temperatures cooled significantly during the “Little Ice Age” which began about 800 years and which the planet is still recovering from.

A 2007 National Geographic review reported that “Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet’s recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist’s controversial theory. In 2005 data from NASA’s Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide “ice caps” near Mars’s south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.”The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars,” he said…Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun’s heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.”

In a recent interview on the New York Analysis of Policy and Government’s affiliated radio program, “The Vernuccio-Novak Report,” climate researcher Gregory Wrightstone reiterated his previously published research.

“There is a legitimate and worthy argument that is being made by scientists like myself that, while the additional CO2 is likely having a slight warming effect, the majority of the rise in temperature is due to a natural rise in temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age. That cold period lasted for 550 years and only ended in the mid-1800’s. Bear in mind that really bad things occurred during that cooling period including famines, crop failures and death (half of the population of Iceland perished). An unbiased opinion may legitimately be that the current warming is a welcome respite from that harsh era. Prior to the current politicization of climate science, the warming periods were called “climatic optima” because humans flourished during those times.

“The temperature rise we are witnessing today is neither unprecedented nor unusual. An inspection of the chart below compares CO2 and temperatures from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (link is on chart) of the last 12,000 years from the beginning of the current inter-glacial period to 1855 when the data starts. Several important take-aways from the chart:

  • Preceding warm periods commonly reached significantly higher temperatures than we see now
  • The one constant regarding temperature is that it is always changing
  • We are about 11,600 years into the current inter-glacial warming period which typically last 10,000 to 15,000 years
  • There is no discernible correlation between CO2 and temperature during this time.”

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Russia Provokes, and Suffers From, Islamic Extremism Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its examination of how Russia both provokes, and suffers from, Islamic extremism.

It would be misleading to ignore the horrendous acts of Islamic extremists in establishing the Russian antipathy towards Muslims. The Middle East Forum explains: “On September 1, 2004, a group of Chechen terrorists took hostage and two days later murdered at least 335 schoolchildren and parents in Beslan, a town in the Russian republic of North Ossetia. The atrocity focused world attention on Chechnya. The Russian government used the event to reiterate its arguments that Chechen terrorists and foreign jihadists supporting them have ideological, financial, and operational ties with Islamist terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda.[1] Although President Vladimir Putin and top Russian security officials provided evidence of links between Chechen fighters and Al-Qaeda, European politicians and mainstream Western journalists focused instead upon the Russian army’s brutality and dismissed Putin’s claims as an attempt to gain sympathy in the West and deflect criticism of Russia’s handling of a nationalist insurgency. Putin may have been opportunistic, but he was also correct. A close examination of the evolution of the Chechen movement indicates that Islamists and followers of Al-Qaeda have increasingly sought to co-opt the Chechen movement as their own.”

Whatever the underlying causes of the Russian-Chechen dispute, the murder of schoolchildren was unforgivable, and served at the very least as a substantive justification for the Kremlin to expand its repressive acts.

Aljazeera notes that Moscow’s takeover of Crimea has had a particular impact on Muslims.  “The Turkic-speaking, Muslim ethnic group of 250,000, or about 12 percent of Crimea’s population, largely resisted the 2014 annexation of Crimea…They held protests, blocked highways and prevented Russian troops, armoured personnel carriers and tanks from entering their villages…Tatars are by far the largest stratum of Crimea’s population to face persecution, and their peaceful resistance is seen almost daily. Dozens flock to each search, arrest or court session. They post videos and comments online, triggering squalls of reposts and media reports…more than a dozen Tatars have disappeared without a trace; some were seen kidnapped by burly men, US-based Human Rights Watch said in November. Two were found dead. Hundreds of Tatars, most of them observant Muslims, have been arrested and interrogated, had their houses searched and religious books confiscated. At least 26 were sentenced to up to 15 years in jail on charges ranging from ‘separatism’ to ‘terrorism’ to ‘organisation of mass riots.’”

Writing in Politico, Colin P. Clark states that “ Russia is fast replacing the United States as the No. 1 enemy of Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and other Sunni jihadist groups motivated by violent and puritanical Salafist ideology. This shift is rooted in recent Russian actions in the Middle East—including its escalating intervention in Syria and its moves toward intervention in Libya with the recent deployment of special forces to an air base in Egypt—that have drawn the ire of militant Sunnis worldwide and elevated Russia as the jihadists’ top target. And if the Islamic State’s “caliphate” in Syria collapses and foreign fighters, an estimated 2,400 of whom are from Russia, attempt to return home and fix their sights on the Kremlin, the situation could dramatically worsen for Moscow.”

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Despite failing to provide a prosperous economy and leading a national government that is, essentially, a corrupt oligarchy, Vladimir Putin continues to enjoy popularity within Russia by casting himself as a bulwark against imaginary threats from western nations, and against threats, some real, some not,  from Muslims, and some of which are reactions to his own repressive policies. Attacks by Islamic extremists have provided the Russian president with an excuse to expand his own powers and the intrusive actions of his intelligence services.

Illustration: Chechnya map, from Human Rights Watch

 

 

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Russia Provokes, and Suffers From, Islamic Extremism

Within Russia, the government has both provoked, and suffered from, Islamic extremism.

In most cases, current claims of discrimination against Muslims by those not of the Islamic faith within the western world are without substantial merit, particularly since the conclusion of the 1990’s Bosnian conflict. Indeed, most repressive acts against them are the result of internal disputes within their own religion.  Witness, for example, the ongoing fighting between Shias and Sunnis, or the depredations of ISIS and the Taliban against co-religionists that differ from their tyrannical theological views. It is ironic that Muslims living within Israel have more religious (and political) freedom in the Jewish state than in than in most Islamic nations.

But the long-standing discrimination against Muslims within Russia has gained new attention following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and its takeover of Crimea.

A Wilson Center study describes the genesis of current Russian-Muslim relations:
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“When the [Russian] state, both central and regional, began to confront the threat they perceived from Islam to state power, they used two main tools. First, they relied on the use, and abuse, of law enforcement and security agencies to kill, arrest, and intimidate local leaders and believers alike. Second, they instituted laws and propaganda to label certain branches of Islam, and their believers, as extremist. The combination of the two strategies had the desired effect of reducing or eliminating the power and influence of some leaders, but it had some unintended consequences as well. For example, since 2003 social activists who speak out against corruption and land rights abuses and advocate the right to practice Islam according to one’s beliefs have frequently found themselves on lists of ‘untrustworthy’ citizens. Some have found themselves on criminal ‘wanted’ lists and under investigation for alleged violations of the same criminal code articles as radical Islamist fighters. Being on one of these lists means detentions, interrogations involving torture, and abductions by law enforcement officers, including abductions for ransom. A typical tactic of law-enforcement agencies in Russia and Central Asia is to plant drugs and ammunition while searching the homes and cars of ‘new Muslims.’ Victims are then arrested and given the choice between a long prison sentence or buying their freedom…and with it, the chance to leave the country.”

According to another study about Russian-Muslim relations,  “Anti-Muslim feelings were stoked by the war in Chechnya and terrorist attacks by Chechen fighters in the 1990s and early 2000s. Muslims that live in places where they are a minority harassed, humiliated and talked about by non-Muslims in muffled whispers.  In the early 2000s, Russian newspaper ran pictures of local Muslim leaders next to pictures of Osama bin Laden. Hate crimes and attacks are directed at Muslims. Putin has called for tolerance and stated that Islam is a peaceful religion but at same time he has characterized the war in Chechnya as battle between Christians and Muslims and has said, ‘If you are a Christian you are in danger.’  Prejudice towards dark-skinned [people] from the Caucasus and southern Russia is common. Regarded as criminals and often referred to as ‘blacks’ or chernozhopy (‘black asses’), they include people from Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and other regions in the Caucasus Mountains. Both Muslims and Christians are discriminated against although Muslims get the worst of it in part because there are more of them…  People from the Caucasus are shunned by landlords and milked for extra high bribes by authorities and officials… Police routinely stop people suspected as being from the Caucasus on the streets and extract a bride even when all their papers are in order. Dark-skinned men with beards are particularly suspected..”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: Russian forces in Crimea  (Pixabay)

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U.S. Responds to Unfair Trade, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of unfair trade practices confronting the United States.

Beijing’s offenses range beyond mere trade barriers. China is the world’s principal sponsor of intellectual property theft, which costs the U.S. economy as much as $600 billion annually.

As noted in a GOP analysis, among China’s more egregious misuses and theft of U.S. intellectual property:

  • Chinese actors associated with the military are alleged to have broken into the computer systems of U.S. companies and stolen proprietary information for commercial gain.
  • S. companies across various sectors have suffered from Chinese applicants illegally registering their trademarks in bad faith to profit off of U.S. companies’ global reputation.
  • China has blocked U.S. telecommunications, credit card, and film companies from operating in the country.
  • China has sponsored the subsidization and dumping of cheap steel and aluminum which have weakened internal U.S. producers and impaired U.S. national security.
  • China has used faulty science and other bad faith tactics to block the importation of U.S. beef products, poultry, and corn despite China’s World Trade Organization market access obligations.

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According to The Commission On The Theft Of American Intellectual Property,   “China Is The World’s Principal IP Infringer, And Is ‘Deeply Committed’ To Industrial Policies, Such As The ‘Acquisition Of Foreign Technology And Information’ That Contribute To ‘Greater IP Theft.’ ‘China, whose industrial output now exceeds that of the United States, remains the world’s principal IP infringer. China is deeply committed to industrial policies that include maximizing the acquisition of foreign technology and information, policies that have contributed to greater IP theft.’”

On May 29, the White House  provided specific objections to China’s trade practices, and the responses the Trump Administration will engage in to address the problem:

YEARS OF UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES: China has consistently taken advantage of the American economy with practices that undermine fair and reciprocal trade.

  • For many years, China has pursued industrial policies and unfair trade practices—including dumping, discriminatory non-tariff barriers, forced technology transfer, over capacity, and industrial subsidies—that champion Chinese firms and make it impossible for many United States firms to compete on a level playing field.
  • China’s industrial policies, such as its “Made in China 2025” plan, harm companies in the United States and around the world.
  • China imposes much higher tariffs on United States exports than the United States imposes on China.
    • China’s average tariff rate is nearly three times higher than the average United States rate.
    • Certain products are even more imbalanced, for instance the United States charges a 2.5 percent tariff on Chinese cars, while China currently maintains a 25 percent tariff on cars from the United States.
  • China has banned imports of United States agricultural products such as poultry, cutting off America’s ranchers and farmers from a major market for their goods.
  • China has dumped and unfairly subsidized a range of goods for the United States market, undermining America’s domestic industry.
    • In 2018 alone, the Trump Administration has found dumping or unfair subsidies on 13 different products, including steel wheels, cold-drawn mechanical tubing, tool chests and cabinets, forged steel fittings, aluminum foil, rubber bands, cast iron soil pipe and fittings, and large diameter welded pipe.
  • In January 2018, the Trump Administration found that China’s overproduction of steel and aluminum, and the resulting impact on global markets, is a circumstance that threatens to impair America’s national security.
  • The United States has run a trade in goods deficit with China for years, including a $375 billion deficit in 2017 alone.

UNDERMINING AMERICAN INNOVATION AND JOBS: China has aggressively sought to obtain technology from American companies and undermine American innovation and creativity.

  • The cost of China’s intellectual property theft costs United States innovators billions of dollars a year, and China accounts for 87 percent of counterfeit goods seized coming into the United States.
  • United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) Section 301 investigation identified four of China’s aggressive technology policies that put 44 million American technology jobs at risk:
    • Forced technology transfer;
    • Requiring licensing at less than economic value;
    • Chinese state-directed acquisition of sensitive United States technology for strategic purposes; and
    • Outright cyber theft.
  • China uses foreign ownership restrictions, administrative review, and licensing processes to force or pressure technology transfers from American companies.
    • China requires foreign companies that access their New Energy Vehicles market to transfer core technologies and disclose development and manufacturing technology.
    • China imposes contractual restrictions on the licensing of intellectual property and technology by foreign firms into China, but does not put the same restrictions on contracts between two Chinese enterprises.
  • China directs and facilitates investments in and acquisitions of United States companies to generate large-scale technology transfer.
  • China conducts and supports cyber intrusions into United States computer networks to gain access to valuable business information so Chinese companies can copy products.

STANDING UP TO CHINA’S UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES: President Trump has taken long overdue action to finally address the source of the problem, China’s unfair trade practices that hurt America’s workers and our innovative industries.

  • In January 2018, the President announced his decision to provide safeguard relief to United States manufacturers injured by surging imports of washing machines and solar products.
    • This was the first use of Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs in 16 years.
    • These actions responded to injurious trade practices by China and other countries, including attempts to avoid legally imposed antidumping and countervailing duties.
    • Following the decision, Whirlpool announced 200 new jobs in Ohio.
  • USTR and the Department of Commerce are working together to defend the right of the United States to continue treating China as a non-market economy in antidumping investigations until China makes the reforms it agreed to when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).
  • President Trump’s Administration has successfully litigated WTO disputes targeting unfair trade practices and upholding our right to enforce United States trade laws.
    • In February 2018, USTR won a WTO compliance challenge against China’s unfair antidumping and countervailing duties on United States poultry exports and China announced the termination of those duties.

PROTECTING AMERICAN INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY: President Trump has worked to defend America’s intellectual property and proprietary technology from theft and other threats.

  • In August 2017, the Administration initiated a Section 301 investigation into China’s practices related to forced technology transfer, unfair licensing, and intellectual property policies.
  • After USTR completed its Section 301 report in March 2018, the President directed the agencies to explore numerous actions to protect domestic technology and intellectual property.
  • Under President Trump’s leadership:
    • The United States will impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods imported from China containing industrially significant technology, including those related to the “Made in China 2025” program.  The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018.
    • USTR will continue WTO dispute settlement against China originally initiated in March to address China’s discriminatory technology licensing requirements.
    • The United States will implement specific investment restrictions and enhanced export controls for Chinese persons and entities related to the acquisition of industrially significant technology. The list of restrictions and controls will be announced by June 30, 2018.

Illustration: Pixabay

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U.S. Responds to Unfair Trade

There has been significant criticism of President Trump’s tough stance on trade deficits and unfair practices both with China and America’s allies and neighbors. Opposition to the White House move has come not only from the usual political opponents, but even allies within the GOP.  Indeed, Republicans who would never dream of endorsing unilateral disarmament in weapons negotiations appear all too willing to adopt that concept in economic relations.

Interestingly, much of the media, while criticizing the White House for confronting Canada and Europe for their trade practices and threatening retaliatory tmeasures, neglected to mention a key proposal Trump made at the recent G7 meeting: the elimination of all tariffs.

While bluntly confronting Canada and NATO partners and lumping them in with the adversarial Beijing regime may seem harsh, the reality is that the United States economy and job market has suffered significantly.  Remedial steps are required.

The Alliance for American Manufacturing  reports that “Unfair trade practices like dumping, export subsidies, and currency manipulation drove the loss of more than 6.1 million U.S. manufacturing jobs from 1998 to 2010. Today, there is no greater threat to the resurgence in American manufacturing than widening trade deficits and unfair trade practices that go unchecked. New trade agreements must give American workers and businesses tools to aggressively push back against unfair trade practices like currency manipulation, and create a level playing field. Trade agreements already on the books must be strictly enforced. And we need our policymakers to develop and implement a plan to end our trade deficit in manufactured goods, which directly threatens a potential resurgence for American manufacturing.”

U.S. agriculture faces a similar challenge. Mike Thompson, writing in Real Clear Politics  notes that “As global trade continues to expand, it’s important to remember that ‘free trade’ only works if it is ‘fair trade.’ Trade is good for America when that trade is fair. Only when our farmers and other suppliers of goods and services compete on a truly level playing field with their foreign competitors can ‘free trade’ become reality…”
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Stan Ryan, in a Seattle Times article, provides specifics: “… with the stroke of a pen, new Canadian government pricing regulations implemented in February are poised to unfairly take away our markets. The current U.S. administration was correct to stand up against Canada for shutting down U.S. exports of ultra-filtered milk — used to make cheese and yogurt — from farms in the Midwest and Northeast. This sudden change in pricing threatened the livelihoods of U.S. dairy farms. The new Canadian National Ingredients Pricing Strategy, which indirectly subsidizes exports, will further hurt U.S. dairy exports of milk proteins. Since farms across the U.S. depend on a healthy global export market, Canada’s strategy poses a threat to America’s dairy farmers, especially those in the Pacific Northwest, by unfairly underbidding world market prices.”

By far, the greatest offender is China. The Clinton Administration vigorously pursued greater openness to trade with China, and the results proved harmful both to the American economy as a whole and to U.S. manufacturing employment in particular.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2017 “Report to Congress” disclosed that “The hand of the state is… evident in how Beijing treats foreign companies operating in China and in the impact its trade-distorting policies have on its trade partners. Beijing’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. companies and ongoing failure to uphold its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations continue to damage the bilateral relationship. The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China totaled $347 billion in 2016, the second-highest deficit on record. In the first eight months of 2017, the goods deficit reached $239.1 billion, and is on track to surpass last year’s deficit. U.S. companies are feeling increasingly pressured by Chinese policies that demand technology transfers as a price of admission and favor domestic competitors. According to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 81 percent of U.S. firms doing business in China reported feeling less welcome in 2016 than they did in 2015…China’s foreign investment climate continues to deteriorate as government policy contributes to rising protectionism and unfair regulatory restrictions on U.S. companies operating in China. The newly implemented cybersecurity law illustrates this trend. The law contains data localization requirements and a security review process U.S. and foreign firms claim can be used to discriminatorily advantage Chinese businesses or access proprietary information from foreign firms.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Picture: Shanghai (Pixabay)

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Washington Establishment’s Embarrassment

There is little doubt that several key trends have not gone well for the United States in the preceding two decades. Despite significant cutbacks in American defense spending, particularly in the realm of deterring large-scale warfare, Russia and China have moved swiftly and massively ahead in the preparation of their armed forces for a major Great Power conflict. Most NATO allies did not meet their fiscal obligations. The Middle East descended into chaos. Inequitable trade barriers continued to plague U.S. exports. Middle-income jobs deteriorated. The nation’s manufacturing base deteriorated.

These downward trends have existed throughout both Democrat and Republican administrations, with the input, guidance and direction of career Senators, Representatives and lifetime bureaucrats, as well as the commentary of the media.  In short, those politicians, professionals and pundits failed.  Matters only grew worse.

President Trump has been portrayed as a bull in a china shop for his unorthodox style, his blunt and undiplomatic language, his failure to genuflect at the altar of the Washington establishment, and his emphasis on actual results, rather than the Kabuki dance of process so loved by careerists.

For doing this, he has faced criticism that has been harsh, extensive, and unprecedented in degree. It has been so widespread that over-the-top comments, particularly by opposition politicians and entertainment figures, have become commonplace.  At the recent Tony Awards, actor Robert De Niro used his platform to launch a vulgar swear word at the President. Others in his profession have enunciated desires and fantasies of torturing and assassinating Trump.

Aside from the grumblings of Hollywood figures, the media itself has morphed from mere criticism to actual opposition. Writing in the Washington Post and Chicago Tribune Gary Abernathy notes: “the Trump era has brought us to a new plateau, one where the media has moved from adversarial to oppositional. …If you care about journalism, it’s a disturbing trend…Former Democratic president Jimmy Carter‘s widely reported comments in Maureen Dowd’s recent New York Times column about the media’s coverage of Trump were a welcome acknowledgment of the obvious from someone other than a Trump loyalist. ‘I think the media have been harder on Trump than any other president certainly that I’ve known about…I think they feel free to claim that Trump is mentally deranged and everything else without hesitation.’”
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The vehemence against Trump also reflects the disdain the left-wing establishment and the Washington careerists have for their fellow citizens.  During the campaign, Jeet Heer, in a New Republic article, asked, “Are Donald Trump’s supporters idiots? Jonathan Chait has a theory about why Trump’s success took him and other pundits by surprise: ‘The Republican Party turns out to be filled with idiots. Far more of them than anybody expected…’ Thankfully, we have actual data on Trump’s supporters. Far from being idiots Trump’s supporters are better educated and wealthier than the American average.”

That disdain and outright hatred is based on the Washington establishment’s embarrassment over its failure to achieve real gains for the nation. When faced with Trump’s record of actual progress, for example in the upswing in middle-income jobs or getting the North Koreans to the bargaining table, the embarrassed reaction by Trump’s detractors descends into flights of irrationality. David Rutz, reporting for the Free Beacon reported on June 1 that “House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) came down hard on a positive U.S. jobs report on Friday, saying the good employment numbers didn’t matter to ‘families hit with soaring new costs’ …”

Since venturing into politics, Trump has bluntly enunciated real issues, and the failure of the Washington establishment.  As President, he has begun making progress on them.  This has embarrassed  career politicians, life-long bureaucrats, and their media supporters. That is the genesis of the extraordinary level of criticism that has been levied against him.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Medicare: Disappointment and Insolvency, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of the disappointment to users of Medicare, and its pending insolvency.

The 2018 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds was issued this month, and it outlines the challenges facing the system:

In 2017, Medicare covered 58.4 million people: 49.5 million aged 65 and older, and 8.9 million disabled. Over 34 percent of these beneficiaries have chosen to enroll in Part C private health plans that contract with Medicare to provide Part A and Part B health services. Total expenditures in 2017 were $710.2 billion, and total income was $705.1 billion, which consisted of $694.3 billion in non-interest income and $9.8 billion in interest earnings. Assets held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities decreased by $5.0 billion to $289.6 billion.

Short-Range Results

The estimated depletion date for the HI trust fund is 2026, 3 years earlier than in last year’s report. As in past years, the Trustees have determined that the fund is not adequately financed over the next 10 years. HI income is projected to be lower than last year’s estimates due to (i) lower payroll taxes attributable to lowered wages for 2017 and lower levels of projected GDP and (ii) lower income from the taxation of Social Security benefits as a result of legislation. HI expenditures are projected to be slightly higher than last year’s estimates, mostly due to higher-than-expected spending in 2017, legislation that increased hospital spending, and higher Medicare Advantage payments.

In 2017, HI income exceeded expenditures by $2.8 billion. The Trustees project deficits in all future years until the trust fund becomes depleted in 2026. The assets were $202.0 billion at the beginning of 2018, representing about 65 percent of expenditures during the year, which is below the Trustees’ minimum recommended level of 100 percent. The HI trust fund has not met the Trustees’ formal test of short-range financial adequacy since 2003. Growth in HI expenditures has averaged 2.1 percent annually over the last 5 years, compared with non-interest income growth of 4.9 percent. Over the next 5 years, projected annual growth rates for expenditures and non-interest income are 6.2 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively.

The SMI trust fund is expected to be adequately financed over the next 10 years and beyond because premium income and general revenue income for Parts B and D are reset each year to cover expected costs and ensure a reserve for Part B contingencies. The Part B premium for 2018 is $134.00, the same as for 2017. However, a hold-harmless provision limited the premium increase in 2016 and 2017 for about 70 percent of enrollees. These Part B enrollees saw an increase in their Part B premium from about $109 in 2017, on average, to about $130, on average, in 2018.

Part B and Part D costs have averaged annual growth of 5.5 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, over the last 5 years, as compared to growth of 3.7 percent for GDP. Under current law, the Trustees project an average annual Part B growth rate of 8.2 percent over the next 5 years; for Part D, the estimated average annual increase in expenditures for these 5 years is 6.0 percent. The projected average annual rate of growth for the U.S. economy is 4.7 percent during this period, significantly slower than for Part B and Part D. The Trustees are issuing a determination of projected excess general revenue Medicare funding in this report because the difference between Medicare’s total outlays and its dedicated financing sources6 is projected to exceed 45 percent of outlays within 7 years. Since this is the second consecutive such finding, the law specifies that a Medicare funding warning is triggered and that the President must submit to Congress proposed legislation to respond to the warning within 15 days after the submission of the Fiscal Year 2020 Budget. Congress is then required to consider the legislation on an expedited basis.

Long-Range Results

For the 75-year projection period, the HI actuarial deficit has increased to 0.82 percent of taxable payroll from 0.64 percent in last year’s report. (Under the illustrative alternative projections, the HI actuarial deficit would be 1.71 percent of taxable payroll.) The 0.18 percent of payroll increase in the actuarial deficit was primarily due to lower projected payroll tax income, higher expenditures in 2017, higher payments to Medicare Advantage plans, and legislation that increased expenditures.

Part B outlays were 1.6 percent of GDP in 2017, and the Board projects that they will grow to about 2.8 percent by 2092 under current law.
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The long-range projections as a percent of GDP are slightly higher than those in last year’s report due to recent legislation and higher Medicare Advantage spending. (Part B costs in 2092 would be 4.3 percent under the illustrative alternative scenario.)

The Board estimates that Part D outlays will increase from 0.5 percent of GDP in 2017 to about 1.2 percent by 2092. These long-range outlay projections, as a percent of GDP, are about the same as those shown in last year’s report.

Transfers from the general fund finance about three-quarters of SMI costs and are central to the automatic financial balance of the fund’s two accounts. Such transfers represent a large and growing requirement for the Federal budget. SMI general revenues equal 1.5 percent of GDP in 2017 and are projected to increase to an estimated 2.8 percent in 2092.

Conclusion

Total Medicare expenditures were $710 billion in 2017. The Board projects that expenditures will increase in future years at a faster pace than either aggregate workers’ earnings or the economy overall and that, as a percentage of GDP, they will increase from 3.7 percent in 2017 to 6.2 percent by 2092 (based on the Trustees’ intermediate set of assumptions). If the relatively low price increases for physicians and other health services under Medicare are not sustained and do not take full effect in the long range as in the illustrative alternative projection, then Medicare spending would instead represent roughly 8.9 percent of GDP in 2092. Growth under any of these scenarios, if realized, would substantially increase the strain on the nation’s workers, the economy, Medicare beneficiaries, and the Federal budget.

The Trustees project that HI tax income and other dedicated revenues will fall short of HI expenditures in all future years. The HI trust fund does not meet either the Trustees’ test of short-range financial adequacy or their test of long-range close actuarial balance.

The Part B and Part D accounts in the SMI trust fund are expected to be adequately financed because premium income and general revenue income are reset each year to cover expected costs. Such financing, however, would have to increase faster than the economy to cover expected expenditure growth.

The financial projections in this report indicate a need for substantial steps to address Medicare’s remaining financial challenges.

Consideration of further reforms should occur in the near future. The sooner solutions are enacted, the more flexible and gradual they can be. Moreover, the early introduction of reforms increases the time available for affected individuals and organizations—including health care providers, beneficiaries, and taxpayers—to adjust their expectations and behavior. The Trustees recommend that Congress and the executive branch work closely together with a sense of urgency to address the depletion of the HI trust fund and the projected growth in HI (Part A) and SMI (Parts B and D) expenditures.

illustration: Pixabay

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Medicare: Disappointment and Insolvency, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its review of the disappointment to users of Medicare, and its pending insolvency.

 Despite what many believe to be less than ideal coverage, the system itself will soon face bankruptcy. The Urban Institute  suggests inefficiency as a key reason:

“Fee for service Medicare, which enrolls some 85 percent of all participants, lacks strong incentives either for beneficiaries to seek or providers to supply only cost-effective care or, for that matter, only care that has a reasonable chance of improving health outcomes. Of course, many private sector health plans also suffer from this deficiency. Medicare, however, faces another challenge —setting its payments at the right level—that does not bedevil private plans to the same degree. The program pays for thousands of medical services delivered by hundreds of thousands of providers and suppliers operating in hundreds of separate market areas. Because it must operate throughout this very diverse nation, it is impossible to set uniform payment rates that will be efficient everywhere. Some providers are overpaid, others are undercompensated. Because the consequences of underpayment are so serious—denial of access to needed services for a vulnerable population—and because political pressures can affect payment policies, overpayments (rather than under payments) tend to be the norm. Of course, all complex systems tolerate some inefficiency because the costs of wringing out the excess exceeds the gain. But the level of inefficiency accepted in Medicare is higher than that in private sector plans because Medicare, being a government program, has objectives other than efficiency, such as ensuring that certain types of providers survive in rural areas. As reform options that promise improved efficiency are debated, it will be important to consider whether and how these other goals of the Medicare program will be met under a restructured system.”

In a 2011 National Affairs examination, Avik Roy wrote “Medicare’s woes are partly demographic. In 2030, when the last of the Baby Boomers retires, there will be 77 million people on Medicare, up from 47 million today. But there will be fewer working people funding the benefits of this much larger retiree population: In 2030, there will be 2.3 workers per retiree, compared to 3.4 today and about 4 when the program was created. But a bigger part of Medicare’s troubles is the rapid inflation of health-care costs. In 2010, the per capita cost of providing health-care services in America increased by 6.1%, according to Standard & Poor’s, while overall inflation increased by only 1.5%. Over the past decade, health-care inflation has risen 48%, while inflation in the broader economy has increased by only 26%, according to the Department of Labor…

Also if slovak-republic.org sale of viagra women are pregnant and are drinking and driving they are putting the creature in their bellies at risk of injury or death as well. Other documented examples of using subliminal messages includes: – A hidden message in movies to promote and boost popcorns and drinks sales. (The owner of the theatre had admitted that he lied)- Videos that carries subliminal advertisements.- Embedded levitra prescription see for info watermarks in print advertisements.- Sub-audio messages used in self-help CDs There are also testimonials that swear by subliminal messages. Anyone with a website can sell anything so long as your body is functioning delivery overnight viagra look here well and is supplied with adequate minerals, vitamins, protein and essential fatty acids. Moreover, you can talk to the computer professionals by dialing 1 800 viagra 25 mg http://www.slovak-republic.org/calendar/ 723 4210. Medicare also inflates costs as a result of its byzantine structure, which hampers efficiency. Many people wrongly believe that Medicare is more efficient than private insurance; that view was often stated by champions of Obamacare during the debate preceding the law’s enactment. These advocates argued that Medicare’s administrative costs — the money it spends on expenses other than patient care — are just 3% of total costs, compared to 15% to 20% in the case of private, employer-sponsored insurance. But these figures are highly misleading, for several reasons.

First, other government agencies help administer the Medicare program. The Internal Revenue Service collects the taxes that fund the program; the Social Security Administration helps collect some of the premiums paid by beneficiaries (which are deducted from Social Security checks); the Department of Health and Human Services helps to manage accounting, auditing, and fraud issues and pays for marketing costs, building costs, and more. Private insurers obviously don’t have this kind of outside or off-budget help. Medicare’s administration is also tax-exempt, whereas insurers must pay state excise taxes on the premiums they charge; the tax is counted as an administrative cost. In addition, Medicare’s massive size leads to economies of scale that private insurers could also achieve, if not exceed, were they equally large.

But most important, because Medicare patients are older, they are substantially sicker than the average insured patient — driving up the denominator of such calculations significantly. For example: If two patients cost $30 each to manage, but the first requires $100 of health expenditures and the second, much sicker patient requires $1,000, the first patient’s insurance will have an administrative-cost ratio of 30%, but the second’s will have a ratio of only 3%. This hardly means the second patient’s insurance is more efficient — administratively, the patients are identical. Instead, the more favorable figure is produced by the second patient’s more severe illness.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

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Medicare: Disappointment and Insolvency

10,000 boomers turn 65 each and every day, meaning that they will be eligible for Medicare.  Almost all of them will be disappointed, distressed and confused about the program they have paid into throughout their entire working lives.

Making matters worse, despite what many believe to be inadequate benefits and significant costs, the Medicare system itself is going broke more rapidly than expected, according to the recently released Medicare Trustees report.

The current total Medicare tax is 2.9%, .half of which is paid for by employees, and half by employers. Spread over an average working life, this adds up to a considerable sum of money. A Forbes analysis reports that a male earning an average wage over his lifetime will have paid about $61,000 into Medicare.

It’s not inappropriate, then, that many believe that when (and if) they reach their 65th year, their medical insurance needs will be fully and simply accommodated. Unfortunately, they will face a bitter shock. There’s no free ride after turning 65. Medicare Part B monthly premiums can range from $134 to $428.60, based on income, for coverage that does not even cover many needs.  To make up the difference, seniors need to purchase private plans to fill in the gaps to cover to cover what a CNBC study estimates will be the $280,000 the average retired couple will spend on health care for the remainder of their lives.

An Urban Institute study found that “The Medicare benefit package is inadequate by the health insurance standards that prevail for the under age 65 population. It lacks coverage for most out-patient prescription drugs and imposes relatively high cost sharing requirements. It has no catastrophic cap on out-of-pocket expenditures and has very limited coverage for long-term care. The gaps in the benefit package have led the vast majority of beneficiaries—some 88 percent—to seek supplemental insurance coverage through individually purchased Medigap policies, employer-sponsored retiree policies, Medicaid, or M+C plans. This practice of dual coverage is complex, confusing, and costly. Furthermore, it is a system that is unraveling. Many employers are scaling back or dropping their retiree coverage, Medigap premiums are rising rapidly, and M+C plans are withdrawing from many markets and reducing their supplemental benefits. Any serious reform must begin by establishing a standard benefit package that the vast majority of beneficiaries consider sufficient without supplementation. Expanding the benefit package to include only prescription drug coverage will reduce, but not solve, this problem.”

The official Medicare website itself warns the approximately 48 million Americans enrolled in Medicare that “Even if Medicare covers a service or item, you generally have to pay your deductible, coinsurance, and copayments.” Some items are not covered at all, including: long-term care (also called custodial care); most dental care; eye exams related to prescribing glasses; dentures; cosmetic surgery; acupuncture; hearing aids and exams for fitting them; and routine foot care.

There can be some nasty shocks, as well, depending on how a physician describes, for example, a hospital visit.  If an inpatient stay is for “observation” as opposed to “treatment,” costs may not be covered.

To cover some of the expenses not covered by Medicare, seniors often seek private additional coverage, in the form of “supplemental” or “advantage” plans. Healthmarkets.com notes that costs for these plans can range into the high $300’s per month, although the average is considerably less.

The bottom line? Nightforce Advanced Tactical Riflescope is here to stay tadalafil 20mg uk and give its competitors some serious run for their money. Other possible causes are smoking, which affects blood flow in veins and arteries, and also supposed to lead to college success. generic cialis on line It is advised for patients who are looking to react in a manner that totally gratifies both your better half in the couch. prices levitra They are the first option of sufferers and ladies in the area. sildenafil mastercard Aside from the costs, just dealing with Medicare coverage can be agonizingly difficult. AARP describes how coverage is delineated into different “parts:”

Part A helps pay the costs of a stay in a hospital or skilled nursing facility, home health care, hospice care, and medicines administered to inpatients.

Part B helps pay bills for physicians and outpatient services such as rehab therapy, lab tests and medical equipment. It also covers doctors’ services in the hospital and most medicines administered in a doctor’s office.

Part C is a different way you can choose to receive your Medicare benefits. It consists of a variety of private health plans, known as Medicare Advantage plans (mainly HMOs and PPOs) that cover Part A, Part B and (often) Part D services in one package.

Part D helps pay the cost of prescription drugs that you use at home, plus insulin supplies and some vaccines. To get this coverage, you must enroll in a private Part D drug plan or in a Medicare Advantage plan that includes Part D drugs.

Notice the use of the word “helps,” as opposed to “fully covers.”

The Report Continues Tomorrow.

Illustration: Pixabay

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China’s Hollywood Takeover

The Summer movie blockbuster season is here. One thing that can be unfortunately counted on: you will not see a lot of films with patriotic views on American history being offered.  There’s a reason for that.

There is a new and disturbing fact about an issue The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has previously reported on.  We have noted that China’s influence over Hollywood  continues to grow, and it is neither paranoid nor inappropriate to examine what this means for the independence of America’s signature art form, and whether this is leading to a pandering by movie personnel, both in the boardrooms and in front of the cameras, to foreign interests.

The Wall Street Journal reports that “Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent consolidation of power has placed China’s film division under the Communist Party’s Ministry of Propaganda…Until March, China’s film bureau had been part of a government agency independent of the party, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, whose job was to regulate content, including censoring films and scheduling theatrical releases. President Xi’s decision to place film operations under party control, coming just before the all-important summer movie season, adds a new layer of uncertainty for studios already struggling to adhere to China’s complicated, fast-changing rules. In his rise to power, President Xi has understood the power of cinema, whether he is encouraging citizens to move to cities with shiny new theaters or blocking American films containing objectionable themes. The reorganization appears to formally acknowledge the role of film as a tool that must be managed by the party.”

China is far more sophisticated than the old Soviet Union, or even Vladimir Putin’s Russia, in its bid to expand its influence and gain a domineering presence across the planet. While the USSR and today’s Russia lean heavily on military strength, Beijing’s rulers fully understand the concept of “soft power,” and that includes the extraordinary role that movies play in shaping the opinions and perspectives of people across the planet.  This applies particularly to the United States, where movies retain a key role in popular culture.

Hollywood moguls, never known for their moral standards, will now pander even further to Chinese censors for two main reasons.  First, they do not wish to offend a potential big-bucks investor in their industry.  Chinese companies have invested $4.5 billion in Hollywood assets. Second, the lure of selling tickets to China’s billion-plus citizens inhibits them from producing films that Beijing censors will keep out of the world’s most populous nation.

Business Insider notes that “Hollywood studio productions will… increasingly be made by China—or rather, by Chinese companies investing in Hollywood.”
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An NBC Today review notes that “If you got to a movie theater right now, there’s a pretty good chance that the film you see will have been partially financed in China.” Correspondent Ronan Farrow outlined how that influences the scripts of the movies Americans watch.

To understand how China’s investment provides influence for the Beijing government, it must be understood that Chinese companies are subservient to and work diligently for China’s foreign policy. That, however, is only part of the story.  The appetite for films in China’s largest-in-the world population is vast, and even those Hollywood studies not financially dependent on China have a significant financial interest in producing movies that appeal to their worldview, even if that is detrimental to American interests.

Politico provides another example of the interrelationship between Chinese companies buying major stakes in Hollywood and Beijing’s political goals. Dalian Wanda is a Chinese firm that has intimate ties to the Chinese Communist Party, and it is intent on making major purchases of Hollywood assets.

Politico asks “For American moviegoers, the peril lies in the unseen. Would a war movie called South China Sea ever play in one of Wanda’s theaters? What about an action flick with a Chinese villain?…When you control the movie experience, you can subtly influence public opinion. And the Chinese government — Wanda’s staunch supporter — has been transparent about that goal. The Communist Party has banned or currently bans thousands of books deemed controversial. It heavily censors the Internet, while Facebook and Twitter remain prohibited in China — one of the reasons Freedom House ranked it a more restrictive society than Iran and Saudi Arabia.”

Photo: Pixabay