Month: October 2017

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U.S. Military insufficient to meet Threats

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government examines the Heritage Foundation’s authoritative study of military threats to the U.S., and the ability of the Pentagon to respond to them, in this three-part series.

 The authoritative Heritage Foundation has completed a thorough review of  the United States’ military posture in a comprehensive study entitled the 2018 Index of Military Strength. Overall, America’s defense posture is rated “marginal” and is trending toward “weak.”

The study concludes that the current U.S. military force is likely capable of meeting the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various presence and engagement activities, but that it would be very hard-pressed to do more and certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies.

Budget cuts and budget uncertainty have forced the Pentagon to field a small, aging, and overworked force. According to Heritage, “Essential maintenance continues to be deferred; the availability of fewer units for operational deployments increases the frequency and length of deployments; and old equipment continues to be extended while programmed replacements are either delayed or beset by developmental difficulties. The military services have continued to prioritize readiness for current operations by shifting funding to deployed or soon-to-deploy units while sacrificing the ability to keep non-deployed units in “ready” condition; delaying, reducing, extending, or canceling modernization programs; and sustaining the reduction in size and number of military units. While Congress and the new Administration have taken some positive steps to fund readiness in 2017 more robustly, they have not overturned the Budget Control Act that caps defense spending. Without a real commitment to increases in modernization, capacity, and readiness accounts over the next few years, America’s military branches will continue to be strained to meet the missions they are called upon to fulfill. As currently postured, the U.S. military is only marginally able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests.”

While the U.S. was slashing defense spending during the Obama Administration, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran were moving rapidly ahead and dramatically enhancing their own capabilities. Heritage notes:

Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups in the Middle East and Afghanistan—remained actual or potential threats to U.S. interests over the past year. All amply demonstrated a commitment to expanding their capabilities to pursue their respective interests that directly challenged those of the U.S. All also continued or increased their aggressive behavior when compared to the 2016 Index.

Worryingly, all of the six noted threat actors now rank “high” on the scale of threats to U.S. interests, with Russia coming close to being elevated to “severe” from its past score of “high.”
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Russia and China continue to be the most worrisome, both because of the ongoing modernization and expansion of their offensive military capabilities and because of the more enduring effect they are having within their respective regions. Russia has maintained its active involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, has been more assertive in the Baltic Sea region, and has continued to insert itself into the Syrian conflict. China’s provocative behavior continues to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters of the South China Sea. China also continues its aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines and continues to bully other countries that try to exercise their right to navigate international waters in the region.

North Korea has executed an alarming number of missile tests: 18 as of early August 2017 compared to 21 for all of 2016. These tests have demonstrated the commitment of Kim Jong-un’s regime to fielding a force of shortrange, medium-range, and long-range ballistic, cruise, and submarine-launched missiles, presumably with the ability to carry nuclear warheads. The latest tests have hinted at North Korea’s ability to reach targets in the United States. These developments, combined with its increasingly hostile rhetoric toward the West over the past year, make North Korea the most volatile threat addressed in the Index.

Terrorism based in Afghanistan continues to challenge the stability of that country. To the extent that various groups based in the region straddling the border with Pakistan remain potent and active, they also remain a threat in being to the stability of Pakistan, which is a matter of concern given Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power and its sustained frictions with India, also a nuclear power.

In addition, Iran’s efforts to develop more advanced military capabilities and its active support of the various terrorist groups operating in the Middle East continue to undermine regional security conditions and therefore to threaten the regional interests of the U.S.

With these threats taken together, the globalized threat to U.S. vital national interests as a whole during 2017 remained “high.”

The Report continues tomorrow.

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Attacking Red Tape

The U.S. Department of Commerce  is moving to undue the extraordinary burden placed on the American economy during President Obama’s tenure.

The prior Administration introduced record-breaking over-regulation, as noted in numerous studies, most notably that performed by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI). That addiction to regulation was more than just a nuisance. The CATO institute asserts that “It is widely recognized that excessive regulation is unnecessarily killing jobs.”

The Daily Signal found that “job-creating entrepreneurs in the United States have been dispirited by the scope and cost of escalating red tape…Since 2009, the expansion of Uncle Sam’s regulatory control has been one of the prime culprits in America’s startling decline in economic freedom and overall competitiveness. Each new edict has meant a new government bureaucracy that entrepreneurs and producers must navigate. Worse, the trend of overregulating our economy has also bred cronyism and tarnished our free-market system. As reported in the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, an annual study that benchmarks the quality and attractiveness of the entrepreneurial framework across countries, the United States remains stuck in the second tier economic freedom rank of the “mostly free,” with its business freedom score plunging to the lowest level since 2006. This increased regulatory burden, aggravated by favoritism toward entrenched interests, has notably undercut America’s historically dynamic entrepreneurial growth. A 2014 Brookings Institution analysis shows that with business exits now exceeding new business formations, entrepreneurial dynamism in the United States has been steadily dwindling. In light of the excessive and costly regulatory environment, it is not surprising that America’s ongoing economic recovery has been far from dynamic. Fewer Americans can prosper in this overregulated economy.”

The cost of compliance with the tidal wave of regulatory mandates was overwhelming. CEI estimated that in 2015, regulatory-related expenses were approximately $1.88 trillion, 10% of the entire American GDP and over 5 times the cost of federal corporate income taxes that year.

It’s not only private sector projects that are daunted by over-regulation.  Improtant infrastructure projects suffer greatly, as well.

According to the Department of Commerce, “the cost of permitting delays can more than double direct project construction costs when all delay factors are considered….the types of costs associated with delays are subtle and insidious – and we too often accept them as  status quo without realizing the massive drag they have created on our economy. For example, many proposed new projects offer environmental benefits compared to the status quo, so by delaying the new ‘greener’ solution, we may often prolong higher emissions and congestion associated with the status quo. Furthermore, delays may mask a greater threat – important infrastructure projects may not even be considered or initiated because of investment uncertainty and risk created by permitting delays. The risk of delay and associated lower returns can be a powerful disincentive for any private capital participation.”

In response, the Commerce Department issued, earlier this year, a Request for Information (RFI) on how to cut the burden, particularly for the hard-hit manufacturing sector, and has now published a study based on the results in a report entitled “Streamlining Permitting, and Reducing Regulatory Bburdens for Domestic Manufacturing.”   

The Report notes that:

“Federal regulations impose enormous costs on America’s businesses and working families. These costs burden virtually every sector of our economy, although the manufacturing sector is disproportionately hard hit. The direct costs on manufacturing companies were estimated by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) to be $138.6 billion as of 2014,1 though this estimate does not include indirect negative effects on the U.S. economy such as reduced innovation and global competitiveness, lost investment, and significant job losses.  Small businesses are also disproportionately burdened by excessive federal regulation.

“on January 24, 2017, President Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum on Streamlining Permitting and Reducing Regulatory Burdens for Domestic Manufacturing. The Memorandum, which is one part of an Administration-wide regulatory reform agenda, required the Secretary of Commerce, in coordination with other executive departments and agencies, to conduct outreach to stakeholders on the impact of federal regulations and permitting requirements on domestic manufacturing and to submit a report to the President setting forth a plan to streamline federal permitting processes and to reduce the regulatory burdens affecting domestic manufacturing industry expressed clear support for the need to protect the environment, human health, and worker safety, but shared concrete, detailed concerns about how the federal government tries to achieve those objectives. Respondents identified numerous regulatory and permitting problems, including:

  • onerous and lengthy permitting processes that increase cost, add uncertainty, and inhibit investment in new and existing manufacturing facilities;
  • inadequately designed rules that are impractical, unrealistic, inflexible, ambiguous, or that show a lack of understanding of how industry operates;
  • unnecessary aspects of rules, or unnecessary stringency, that are not required to achieve environmental or other regulatory objectives;
  • overlap and duplication between permitting processes and agencies; and
  • overly strict or punitive interpretations of guidance, policies or regulations that are often counter to a pro-growth interpretation.

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“Despite numerous regulatory reform initiatives over the years, businesses continue to express concerns about increasing regulatory burdens. The fact that manufacturers continue to raise the same concerns, even after decades of regulatory reform efforts by the federal government, indicates a failure on the federal government’s part to fully engage with regulated industries and fully understand the real-world impact of its regulations. There is a vital need for better dialogue and understanding between regulators and industry. In the meantime, the urgency for reform continues to grow. A 2017 NAM study states that most manufacturers perceive their regulatory burden to have increased significantly, such that reducing their current burden is at least as important as reducing the cost of new regulations.

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

“The Department makes three major recommendations.

  • Each agency’s Regulatory Reform Taskforce (RRTF) should deliver to the President an ‘Action Plan’ in response to all permitting and regulatory issues highlighted by industry.
  • Annual Regulatory Reduction Forum. There is no regular process for consultations with industry to identify specific actions the federal government can take to eliminate unduly burdensome regulations and accelerate permitting decisions. Thus, the Department recommends creating an annual, open forum for regulators and industry stakeholders to evaluate progress in reducing regulatory burdens.
  • Expanding the Model Process in FAST-41. [Title 41 of the FAST Act (FAST-41) (42 U.S.C. § 4370m) was designed to improve the timeliness, predictability, and transparency of the Federal environmental review and authorization process for covered infrastructure projects.] The FAST Act  contains various provisions aimed at streamlining the environmental review process, with improved agency coordination through the creation of a Coordinated Project Plan and a Permitting Dashboard. Covered projects will typically enjoy better coordination, transparency of approvals, and expedited permitting. The Department recommends that the Administration use existing authority to extend the use of streamlined permitting procedures in the FAST Act to any project that will result in a significant, immediate economic benefit to the United States. For example, consideration could be extended to funded, qualifying projects in a new “economically significant” category. Consideration should be extended to complex, funded manufacturing projects that are in late stages of development and that can demonstrate significant net direct and indirect benefits to the domestic economy. To be eligible for the current streamlining process, projects in this sector or category would still need to meet the definition of a “covered project” under FAST-41. FAST-41 provides a model process that could be incorporated into other Federal legislation that governs Federal programs and requirements that apply to manufacturing facilities. To expand further the universe of manufacturing projects that benefit from streamlined regulatory approval processes, the Administration could work with members of Congress to both expand the definition of “covered project” under FAST-41 and to incorporate procedures similar to those found in FAST-41 in other legislation applicable to manufacturing projects. The Department believes that these three recommendations, if executed promptly and with constant, aggressive leadership, will yield significant results. Set forth below is (i) a summary of issues raised in response to the RFI; (ii) an analysis relating to potential reforms; and (iii) specific recommendations and priority areas for reform.”

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Why the Left Has Become Violent

The upsurge in politically-related violence, both verbal and physical, since the election of 2016 is painfully obvious.

Frustration and embarrassment are the key reasons for the unwanted development. Over the past eight years, the results of the most hard-Left administration in U.S. history have provided the U.S. with a doubled national debt (and little to show for all that spending), a sharply reduced level of national security, a crumbling middle class, and racial relations worse than at any time since the end of segregation.

To make matters worse for Progressives, as they prefer to be called, the actions of their international heroes, including Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, can no longer be hidden.  Maduro, who has received extensive praise from both Hollywood and Political leftists, including examples such as Michael Moore, Oliver Stone, Sean Penn, Danny Glover, Naomi Campbell, Joseph Kennedy, is starving and oppressing his nation.

Much praise was heaped on the Obama Administration for opening up relations with Cuba. After fulfilling the leftists dream of renewed diplomatic and some economic contacts with the Communist Havana regime, however, the results have been bad.  The Russians are sending spy ships to the island nation, the Cuban people are as oppressed as ever, and those American diplomats sent to Havana have been subjected to brutal assaults. The Washington Times  describes the attack: “acoustic attack on U.S. and Canadian diplomats in Cuba is ‘unprecedented,” State Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said … after revelations that American employees have suffered severe health problems including mild brain injury and damage to the central nervous system believed to have come from exposure inaudible high-pitch sound.”

Despite the clearly terrible results of leftist support for Castro and Maduro, there has been little attempt to question American politicians and celebrities who were so obviously wrong in their support.

Left-leaning internet and social media giants continue to betray freedom-seeking people in China and Cuba by caving in to totalitarian demands for censorship.

President Obama’s “give peace a chance” foreign policy, which including the reduction of the Pentagon budget, a premature withdrawal from Iraq, an announced departure date from Afghanistan, and, overall, a pullback from American leadership in international affairs, produced awful results.  Russia and China have taken advantage of the change to dramatically expand their militaries, and invade neighbors.  ISIS grew to become the most powerful terrorist group in history, and the Taliban regained strength in Afghanistan.

Obamacare is collapsing under its own weight. The U.S. economy, weakened by the Great Recession which was the result of left wing policies forcing financial institutions to provide loans to those without credible means of repayment, was further damaged by continued progressive policies.

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National Review notes: “There is never a reckoning for the Left. An entire generation of American intellectuals found itself enraptured by the brutal, repressive, terroristic political apparatus of the Soviet Union — not only journalistic enablers like Walter Duranty of the Times and the various Hollywood reds and Communist party operatives, but the purportedly enlightened liberals at The New Republic, who were consistent apologists for Soviet brutality at home and abroad at the height of Joseph Stalin’s reign of terror. Scores of Americans, some of them in high government office, were working on behalf of one of history’s most murderous and repressive regimes — and the bad guys in that story are, in the popular imagination, the people who worked to expose that conspiracy, rather than the people who worked to advance it.”

The sympathetic media has largely ignored the abundant diplomatic, military, economic and social failures of the left. It doesn’t discuss Ellison’s antisemitism.  It doesn’t expose the bizarre statements of politicians who provide continual excuses for allowing illegal immigration to bust government budgets and ramp up violent crime.

The voters, however, have noticed. They have largely ousted the party of the left from the White House, and from the majority in the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. Republicans also control 68 state legislative bodies, while Democrats hold just 31.  The GOP now has 34 of the 50 state governorships, as well.

Rejected by the electorate, and with only negative results from their policies, the left has veered from politics and policies to violence and lies, in the streets, on college campuses, and in censorship tactics on the internet.

The promotion of racial animosity is among the unsavory tactics of desperation employed by the Left, an attempt to portray anyone disagreeing with them as racist. The libels and slanders recklessly levelled at their political opponents are now being fought in the courts.

There is some irony here.  The Democrat Party, now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Left, has been, historically, the party that promoted both slavery and segregation.  One of its foremost leaders was Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), the longest serving member in Congress, who had been a member of the KKK. There has been little discussion of taking his statue down.

The media has extensively publicized isolated instances of non-leftist violence at contentious political events, but it has intentionally ignored the well-financed, organized, frequent and abundant acts of planned violence by left wing groups across the nation.

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Europe’s Separatist Movements

Catalonia’s independence movement may be the focus of this month’s news about separatist movements, but Europe has a number of regions that are considering going it alone. These movements tend to feed off of each other, supporting independence claims.

Even within Spain, Catalonia is not alone in seeking a split.  The Basque region has, for over half a century, been active in seeking some form of independence.  The main group leading the effort, the ETA, had in the past resorted to significant amounts of violence.

It is not coincidental that these movements appear to be gaining steam as elections for the European Parliament looms. Rather than unify the continent, the EU’s role in diminishing the status of its nation-state members has fostered fragmentation within its constituent member-states.

Among the most prominent of Europe’s separatist movements  are:

Scotland: In a 2014 vote, those in favor of remaining within the United Kingdom only won by a 5% margin, even though the region already enjoys considerable autonomy. There are significant defense-related implications for NATO if independence comes about, since those favoring secession have stated they would force Britain’s nuclear facilities out of the area. Leaders of the movement are now seeking a new referendum.

Lombardy and Veneto: There has long been tension between Italy’s wealthier, more industrialized north and the less affluent, more agricultural south. The underlying issue concerns a demand by these northern areas to keep more of the wealth they produce, which amounts to almost a third of the national economy. A nonbinding ballot is scheduled for the 22nd of this month. It should also be noted that in one ballot, 89% of voters from Venice opted for independence, also based largely on economic grounds. Italy’s regions of Sicily and Sardinia region have also had significant political discussions about breaking away from Rome.

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Corsica: In 2015, a French regionalist party won in local elections. The separatist The National Liberation Front of Corsica had engaged in violence, although it traded force for politics three years ago.  France also has another, more low key independence movement within its Brittany region, an area that speaks a distinct language, Breton.

Faroe Islands:  This portion of Denmark has elections scheduled for next year on the question of self-determination.  The area currently has considerable autonomy.

The list above is by no means complete. Other movements (with varying degrees of seriousness)  include those in Albania’s Northern Epirus, Azerbaijan’s Artsakh region, The Srpska and Croatian sections of Bosnia, The Czech Republic’s Moravian and Silesian sections, the Bornholm section of Denmark, Aland in Finland, Bavaria in Germany, upper Silesia in Poland, Russia’s North Caucasus and Tartar areas, the Jura Canton of Switzerland, and numerous other movements.

None of is should be particularly surprising to those with a passing knowledge of history.  Until the establishment of strong nation-states, Europe was a fragmented continent containing numerous small kingdoms, city-states, and autonomous regions.  Two of the most significant European nations, Italy and Germany, only became unified states in the 19th century.

The European Union, long advertised as a step forward, essentially if inadvertently has turned the clock back to a time when identification with a large nation-state was far less prevalent than that currently.  The EU’s predilection towards stringent centralized rules also echoes the past in that its bureaucracy tends to run roughshod over the concept of citizen rights over largely unresponsive government officials.

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Puerto Rico’s Electrical Problems a Sign of Things to Come

The media glosses over the root cause that inhibit attempts to rebuild Puerto Rico after the ravages of the latest hurricane. It’s important to understand that cause, because the same mistakes could someday affect the entire United States.

While some circulate an incorrect narrative that the Trump Administration was less enthusiastic about addressing Puerto Rico than either Florida or Houston, the truth is rather different.

Washington has provided a substantial amount of assistance. According to Gov. Ricardo Rossello, “Puerto Rico officials continue to work closely with the Defense Department, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and with state partners through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact…We have over 12,000 — almost 13,000 — DoD personnel in Puerto Rico, over 4,000 Puerto Rico National Guard and EMACs together. There’s an expectation of 3,000 more to come to Puerto Rico in the next couple of weeks as well. The U.S. Navy hospital ship, the USS Comfort, has also been sent to the Island. The Department of Health and Human Services is using the Emergency Prescription Assistance program to provide care for upwards of 500,000 residents.”

Some have described the Pentagon’s efforts as “Militarizing” the reconstruction effort, a move necessary because in a number of the Island’s 78 municipalities, local officials have failed to provide an efficient effort.

Clearly, however, Puerto Rico’s recovery is not moving as rapidly as that of Florida or Houston. The reasons have to do with both geography and politics.

The most obvious fact is that Puerto Rico is, of course, an island, so transportation from the mainland must face an additional hurdle. The ability of nongovernmental assistance, the extraordinary efforts of private citizens who came from states adjacent to Texas and Florida,  to rush to the aid of those in need is very sharply reduced. The complications do not end there.  As noted in the official Puerto Rico website,  unlike the flatlands of Houston and Florida,  “The island of Puerto Rico has surprising geographical diversity with some 60% of the island’s terrain being very hilly… The top four highest mountains in Puerto Rico are Cerro Punta, Rosa, Guilarte and the Tres Picachos. They range from 3093 to 4389 ft. The mountainous interior is formed by the Cordillera Central Range and this is formed by a central mountain chain ranging from Mayaguez to Aibonito.”

But politics, and bad planning, have a lot to do with the ongoing plight, as well.

President Obama’s stimulus cost $792 billion dollars. Supposedly, $41.4 billion went to energy programs, including $4.4 billion to modernize the electrical grid.  Puerto Rico received about $6.5 billion of that.  The question is: Why were critical energy needs, both in Puerto Rico and nationwide, left totally unaddressed?  Throughout the United States, the crucial issue of protecting the electrical grid from an EMP attack was ignored.  In Puerto Rico, protecting the island’s fragile and outdated electrical infrastructure from the effects of a hurricane was not addressed. Despite all that, President Obama claimed he couldn’t find “shovel ready jobs” to invest his stimulus dollars in.  Those funds, instead, went to sources that provided less benefit to the economy than they did to the political fortunes of the Obama Administration.
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Recently, The Hill  noted that “Puerto Rico was a catastrophe of corruption, mismanagement, incompetence and ignorance long before the added misery wrought by Hurricane Maria, which exposed to the world what was there to be seen all along: an island ill-prepared for a sunny day, much less a stormy one. For at least a decade, the media has been sounding the alarm about the crumbling infrastructure and financial mismanagement of Puerto Rico. But it all fell on deaf ears. Let’s flashback to August 2014, when Reuters reporter Luciana Lopez showed that Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority was teetering on insolvency. The power company relied too heavily on expensive oil and was plagued by aging infrastructure dating back to the 1960s, a bloated workforce, and a billing system that was arbitrary and difficult to justify.”

For far too long, critical electrical infrastructure problems have been ignored. This challenge includes both the facilities themselves, and the security surrounding them.

Rebecca Smith, writing in the Wall Street Journal, reported:

“The U.S. electric system is in danger of widespread blackouts lasting days, weeks or longer through the destruction of sensitive, hard-to-replace equipment. Yet records are so spotty that no government agency can offer an accurate tally of substation attacks, whether for vandalism, theft or more nefarious purposes. Most substations are unmanned and often protected chiefly by chain-link fences. Many have no electronic security, leaving attacks unnoticed until after the damage is done. Even if there are security cameras, they often prove worthless. In some cases, alarms are simply ignored.”

Add to that analysis the near-imminent threat of an EMP attack by North Korea or other potential opponent, which could, quite literally, destroy all electrical generating capacity in the nation for well over a year, resulting in devastating casualties.

Beyond security, America’s electrical infrastructure is simply outdated. The American Society of Civil Engineers  reveals that “Much of the U.S. energy system predates the turn of the 21st century. Most electric transmission and distribution lines were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s with a 50-year life expectancy, and the more than 640,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines in the lower 48 states’ power grids are at full capacity. Energy infrastructure is undergoing increased investment to ensure long-term capacity and sustainability; in 2015, 40% of additional power generation came from natural gas and renewable systems. Without greater attention to aging equipment, capacity bottlenecks, and increased demand, as well as increasing storm and climate impacts, Americans will likely experience longer and more frequent power interruptions.”

Puerto Rico’s dilemma may be a harbinger of things to come.

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U.S. Returning to Human Space Flight

President Trump has reconstituted the National Space Council, a step towards fulfilling his emphasis on restoring America’s lead in space exploration and utilization, a hope he included in his inaugural address.

During his tenure in the Oval Office, Barack Obama prematurely ended the Space Shuttle program, then eliminated funding for developing the Constellation system, which had been scheduled to replace the Shuttle as America’s manned space effort.  This rendered the United States dependent on Russia for manned access to orbit. He changed NASA’s budgetary focus from human exploration to endeavors meant to bolster his climate change beliefs. The National Space Council was disbanded.

Writing for The Hill, Mark R. Whittington reported:

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In a dramatic reversal of the prior administration, Vice President Pence’s announcement this month of the restoration of the National Space Council, which he will chair, (the secretaries of Defense, Commerce, and State, will be members) outlined its role in coordinating the White House’s ambitious scientific, commercial and security goals beyond Earth. In his opening remarks to the restored Council, Pence noted “…in recent years, the clarity of our purpose and the confidence of our conviction that propelled the United States to be a vanguard of space exploration seems to have waned. America seems to have lost our edge in space — and those days are over… for too long our government’s commitment has failed to match our people’s spirit and meet our nation’s needs. The truth is that America entered this new millennium without a coherent policy, a coherent vision for outer space. And in the absence of American leadership, other nations have seized the opportunity to stake their claim in the infinite frontier. Rather than lead in space, too often, we have chosen to drift. And, as we learned 60 years ago, when we drift, we fall behind…

“…sending Americans to the moon was treated as a triumph to be remembered, but not repeated. Every passing year that the moon remained squarely in the rearview mirror further eroded our ability to return to the lunar domain and made it more likely that we would forget why we ever wanted to go in the first place. And now we find ourselves in a position where the United States has not sent an American astronaut beyond low-Earth orbit in 45 years. Across the board, our space program has suffered from apathy and neglect. “When the Space Shuttle program ended in 2011, we had four years to find an assured way for our astronauts to get into space. In the meantime, we agreed to pay Russia to hitch a ride on their rockets to the International Space Station. But four years turned into five, and five years turned into six, and here we are, in 2017, still relying on the Russians to ferry our astronauts to the International Space Station — at a cost-per-seat that now stands at more than $76 million…rather than competing with other nations to create the best space technology, the previous administration chose capitulation. According to the U.S. intelligence community, Russia and China are pursuing a full range of anti-satellite technology to reduce U.S. military effectiveness, and they are increasingly considering attacks against satellite systems as part of their future warfare doctrine.”

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China Trade Practices Impact U.S. Economy, Korean Crisis, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

China’s economic practices are not merely inappropriate from a trade perspective; they are also national security risks, and are quietly assisting the North Koreans.  The FBI reported in June that “The United States has filed a complaint to civilly forfeit $1,902,976 from Mingzheng International Trading Limited (Mingzheng), a company based in Shenyang, China. The complaint alleges that Mingzheng is a front company that was created to launder United States dollars on behalf of sanctioned North Korean entities. According to the complaint, Mingzheng conspired to evade U.S. economic sanctions by facilitating prohibited U.S. dollar transactions through the United States on behalf of the Foreign Trade Bank, a sanctioned entity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and to launder the proceeds of that conduct through U.S. financial institutions.

Indeed, China has found numerous avenues to assist North Korea.  Foreign Policy reveals that an “unpublished U.N. report obtained by Foreign Policy that documents sophisticated North Korean efforts to evade sanctions shows that China has proved a fickle partner at best in Washington’s effort to stymie Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions…China, despite its apparent cooperation of late with international efforts to sanction North Korea, has instead served as Pyongyang’s economic lifeline, purchasing the vast majority of its coal, gold, and iron ore and serving as the primary hub for illicit trade that undermines a raft of U.N. sanctions that China nominally supports, the report’s findings suggest.”

Ralph Jennings, writing in Forbes in 2016, reported “The State Department may look harder at Chinese companies in case they are equipping North Korea’s nuclear development, sanctions coordinator Daniel Fried told the foreign affairs subcommittee … His comment followed an announcement… that four Chinese nationals and Chinese industrial equipment wholesaler Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Co. faced their own sanctions and money laundering charges over suspected military support for North Korea via U.S. financial institutions…But a broader probe would just turn up just one thing for sure: China is North Korea’s BFF…”
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The 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission emphasizes that Beijing is using its wealth to “challenge the United States and intimidate China’s neighbors. For example, China’s ability to conduct conventional strikes against U.S. regional facilities recently reached an inflection point with the fielding of new ballistic missiles capable of reaching Guam. The Chinese military’s pursuit of force projection and expeditionary capabilities, while enabling it to provide public goods in the form of antipiracy, peacekeeping, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, will also strengthen China’s traditional warfighting capabilities against its weaker neighbors, many of whom are U.S. allies or partners. These developments are underpinned by advancements in China’s naval, air force, cyber, and space capabilities. In response to conflicting claims in the East and South China seas, China has increased its military deployments there. Moreover, China’s expanding intelligence collection capabilities, including in the cyber realm, have enabled many infiltrations of U.S. national security entities. The information China has extracted could strengthen its hand in a conflict with the United States.

An insiders‘ view of Chinese thinking on the North Korean issue reveals startling facts.  Rather than concentrating on how to reduce Pyongyang’s belligerence,  notes Rowan Callick in The Australian, “A commentary on the People’s Liberation Army website has urged China to target with ­strategic weapons the base where South Korea is deploying the US Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence system to help defend it against North Korea.”

China’s actions in the economic, foreign policy, and military realms suggest China’s leaders have decided the time has come for China to leave behind its long-held strategy, espoused by Deng Xiaoping, of “hide your strength, bide your time.” China is showing itself to the world now, and the outcome is not what many had hoped for 15 years ago when the country was welcomed into the WTO and the global economic system.

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China Trade Practices Impact U.S. Economy, Korean Crisis, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

The Financial Times reports that “Over the past decade, the goods and services China has provided for the US increased by 98 per cent and 132 per cent respectively.”  Reflecting the political viewpoint of many of Washington’s elected officials, the Financial Times emphasizes the importance of the relationship. “China has helped the US maintain its economic and financial stability over more than a decade of war and overspending.”

The statistics indicate that China has more to lose in an all-out trade stoppage. In 2015, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $365.7 billion, the highest on record; in the first eight months of 2016, the deficit was $225 billion. The cumulative U.S. trade deficit with China in the 15 years since it joined the World Trade Organization is a staggering $3.5 trillion. As it protects its domestic industry from foreign competition, China continues to dump its massive overcapacity in U.S. and other global markets, materially damaging U.S. industries, including steel.

There is more than enough justification, even outside of the North Korean dilemma, to justify tough action on China’s aggressive trade practices. The 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission notes that “China continues to violate the spirit and the letter of its international obligations by pursuing import substitution policies, imposing forced technology transfers, engaging in cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, and obstructing the free flow of information and commerce. China is also becoming a less welcoming market for foreign investors, with a host of restrictions and anticompetitive laws that proscribe foreign participation in broad swathes of the economy and promote domestic companies. At the same time, the extensive subsidization of and policy support for favored companies and sectors puts international competitors wishing to export to China at a distinct disadvantage. It has become all too apparent that the CCP has no intention of opening up what it considers key sectors of its economy to significant U.S. or foreign competition and control…

“China’s willingness to reshape the economic, geopolitical, and security order to accommodate its interests are of great concern as China’s global influence grows. This influence has been manifesting most recently with China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative aimed at connecting China with great portions of the rest of the world via a wide range of investments and infrastructure projects. Last year, the Commission tracked the initiative’s impact in Central Asia. This year, as part of our examination of China’s rise and South Asia, we considered its impact on some of the countries in that region. China’s emergence as a major player in South Asia is affecting the geopolitics of the region, and is causing the region’s traditional major power, India, to grow increasingly concerned about the prospect of Chinese encirclement.
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Bloomberg reports that “China’s Worst Trade Abuses Are Hidden… China has also become adept in using non-tariff barriers to prop up favored companies. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing recently identified a raft of such measures China was using to protect manufacturers, including subsidizing local businesses and forcing foreign firms to turn over technology to Chinese partners… China failing to disclose measures that may violate WTO requirements, it is refusing to even discuss them.

“According to the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s 2016 Business Climate Survey, more than three-fourths of surveyed U.S. companies reported they felt foreign businesses are less welcome in China than in years past. Meanwhile, Chinese investment in the United States is growing rapidly, driven by the Chinese government’s “going out” strategy, a generally more open policy environment for outbound investment, and capital flight. The increased acquisition of U.S. assets by Chinese companies, which often receive state funding, has led to growing concern over the economic and national security implications of such acquisitions.

“In 2015, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by 6.5 percent year-on-year to $367.2 billion, a new record. Over the same period, the U.S. deficit with China in advanced technology products reached $120.7 billion, a decrease of $3 billion from 2014. In the first eight months of 2016, the U.S. goods deficit with China fell 5.7 percent year-on-year to $225.2 billion due to weaker imports. The United States has a substantial but much smaller trade surplus with China in services: in 2015, the U.S. trade surplus in services with China totaled $29.5 billion. China continues to stall on liberalizing key sectors in which the United States is competitive globally, such as services…

The Report concludes tomorrow.

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China Trade Practices Impact U.S. Economy, Korean Crisis

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents a three-part examination of China’s trade relations with both the United States and North Korea.

U.S. policy makers need to take an intensive look at the entire framework of Chinese-American economic relations.  This is an urgent issue, since Beijing’s continued support of North Korea is the linchpin allowing Kim Jong-un to develop his nuclear arsenal, and the threat of trade restrictions may be the only way to change that paradigm.

During his presidential campaign, President Trump sharply criticized the imbalance in U.S.-China trade, and Beijing’s unfair economic practices. At the time, he proposed significant tariffs. Now, in the wake of North Korea’s threats of nuclear attack, President Trump has gained some concessions from China, a feat his predecessors failed at.  But are they sufficient, and will Beijing live up to its word?  Unfortunately, based on precedent, the outlook must be less than optimistic.

According to the 2016 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission China’s actions supporting North Korea are similar to its general foreign relations “…hopes that China would stick to its path of “peaceful development” and become a global power that upholds and strengthens the rules-based liberal world order have not been met. China’s leaders have taken advantage of the existing international order when convenient and sought to rewrite the rules when it benefits them. This was starkly illustrated this year by an international tribunal’s ruling that many of China’s activities in the South China Sea are unlawful—and by China’s obstinate rejection of the proceedings. On North Korea, although China signed on to the UN Security Council’s strictest sanctions on Pyongyang to date, there are already indications that China does not intend to enforce them in a way that might deter Kim Jong-un from his increasingly dangerous behavior, illustrated by two nuclear tests and a dozen ballistic missile tests in 2016 alone. Closer to home, China has been employing new levers of coercion in Taiwan and Hong Kong in ways that infringe upon longstanding practices and agreements, and which threaten to erode autonomy and democratic values in both places.”

The issue may be confronted soon.  According to the U.S. Commerce Department,  on September 24, U.S. Commerce  Secretary Wilbur Ross and Ambassador Terry Branstad met separately with Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier Wang Yang, Minister Miao Wei, NDRC Chairman He Lifeng, and Economy and Finance Director Liu He. The Secretary also met with Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan.
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The meetings were in anticipation of President Trump’s planned visit to Asia later this which is expected to concentrate on, in addition to the North Korean crisis, a range of trade issues including the need to rebalance bilateral trade and investment relations, protect intellectual property, lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and guarantee fair and reciprocal treatment for U.S. firms. According to the Commerce Department, “Ross is seeking to reduce the trade deficit through increased exports of high-value U.S. goods and services to China and improved market access for U.S. firms.” However, the possibility of stringent trade restrictions in reaction to China’s continued support for North Korea will certainly be a factor.

China’s economic relations with America has been a contentious issue since at least since the 1990’s.  President Bill Clinton greatly assisted Beijing’s rise to financial prowess both through his authorization of the sale of Cray super computers, and through his signing of legislation that freed Beijing from having to get yearly recertification of its trade status, as well as guaranteeing Chinese the low-tariff access to the U.S. market.

Investopedia notes that “…the trade balance of the U.S. vis-à-vis China is negative, and this deficit is financed partly by the capital flow from China. That is to say, China is also the largest creditor of the U.S. holding the largest part of the US Treasury securities with an amount of $1,270.3 billion as of May 2015. This is about one-fifth of the total US treasury securities ($6134.8 billion as of May 2015) outstanding.” In essence, in return for lending funds to federal elected officials who may use them to finance popular programs, those politicians have not taken action against Beijing’s unfair economic practices.

The Report continues tomorrow.

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Can Western Civilization Survive? Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its examination of the threat to the key concepts of western civilization.

Tyler O’Neil, writing in PJMedia, notes that “The Left’s very reaction to Trump’s speech reinforces the idea that the West has cultural foes within. The greatest threat is cultural suicide. As Abraham Lincoln wrote, ‘If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of free men, we will live forever or die by suicide’…So long as Democrats and the Left define their movement around a rejection of the West, they are choosing the latter course. In that case, opposing them is a matter of staving off suicide. That’s not a choice at all.

On college campuses and within the writings of much of the media and cultural elites, the defining concept of western civilization, the worth of each individual, and the rights of individuals over groups or governments, has been criticized.  The terrible and oppressive collectivist notions that wrought such havoc in the twentieth century, including Communism, Nazism, and Fascism, have returned in the 21st century under different guises to again threaten personal freedom.

Larry Siedentop, author of “Inventing the Individual” writes:

“…The only birthright recognized [by modern western civilization]…is individual freedom. Siedentop credits the western devotion to individual freedom to its Christian roots.  The Judeo-Christian ethic, however, is under siege, much as it was in the past by Islamic invasions or the ravages of Eastern conquerors. Now, with the expanding influence of the economic and military expansion of China, combined with the massive immigration of Muslims into western lands and the refusal by those immigrants to assimilate, the threat is greater than ever.

Despite the near-constant violent Islamic extremists assaults on Europe, and the stated intent of many Islamic leaders to “replace” European culture, continental leaders have failed to respond.
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Writing in the Daily Caller, Veronique Dorey reports: “I’m really surprised that nobody among the political class in Europe proposes a plebiscite to stop the massive assaults made on the French and German identity…Political parties who want to do something about Islamic terrorism should gather together and walk to the Elysee Palace in Paris and to Chancellor Merkel’s office in Berlin. They should request a plebiscite to stop their insane abuse of power. Merkel and Hollande are forcing massive immigration on the German and French people. Why? And why are their nationals not given the right to refuse it?”

Rather than rise to the challenge, Europe’s religious and cultural leaders appear to be surrendering their heritage without a fight. Mark Steyn noted how, in 2008, the Archbishop of Canterbury described the introduction of Sharia Law in the United Kingdom as “inevitable.”

It would be a mistake to assume that the threat to western civilization is confined to North Korea’s nuclear threats or Islamic extremists. Reason magazine’s William Hicks points out the danger from campus forces, some from college administrators and some from radical student groups,  that seek to obscure American and European accomplishments. “Under pressure from student protesters, Reed College in Portland, Oregon is considering whether or not to continue requiring freshmen to take a Western civilization course. Since the fall semester started, the self-named Reedies Against Racism forced cancellation of the opening of Humanities 110, “Greece and the Ancient Mediterranean,” at the private, liberal arts school with an enrollment of 1,500. On Aug. 28, Prof. Elizabeth Drumm cancelled class before it began when protest organizers came to the front of the room to address students.”

The West has successfully endured massive threats in the past.  In survived assaults from foreign conquerors. It repulsed attempts from Persia, from Ghengis Khan, and from Islam in the middle ages.  It survived the internal horrors of Nazism and Communism. It remains to be seen whether it will rise to current challenges.