Month: June 2015

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The significant change in U.S. government

Neither Congress nor the American people have been adequately consulted about the two most pivotal changes to the nation in the last half century.

Unlike the major alterations to our national character in the past, which were the product of relatively open and public debate in Congress and the media, the keystone battles concerning the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and the current negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership have been conducted, needlessly, behind closed doors.

It is difficult to find justification for secrecy in either. They do not involve information about military affairs that are vital to be kept from enemy hands, or competitive bidding procedures where some advantage to the taxpayers was to be gained by secrecy. Clearly, of course, Congress has some culpability in all this as well. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was never forced to say that the Affordable Care Act would have to be passed before we could see what was in it. And, certainly, now that Republicans have gained control of Congress, there is no reason to believe they must follow White House commands to keep the terms of the Trans-Pacific Trade pact, now under consideration, hidden from the public.

Despite Congressional acquiescence, the Obama White House has acted contemptuously of the legislative branch, openly stating that he “can’t wait” for Congress to act, and that if Congress doesn’t go along with his proposals he has “a pen and a phone” that he will use instead. The President has sought to ignore Congress by using executive orders and regulatory measures.
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The President’s relationship with the Supreme Court—and the Constitution– has been equally abrasive. His White House has been handed numerous defeats—including thirteen unanimous decisions—by the Supreme Court.

The Obama White House has sought to fundamentally reshape the federal government, at the expense of both individual rights, the authority of the legislative and judicial branches, and the powers of the states.

John Fund, writing in the National Review,  has noted: “The tenure of both President Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder has been marked by a dangerous push to legitimize a vast expansion of the power of the federal government that endangers the liberty and freedom of Americans. They have taken such extreme position on key issues that the Court has uncharacteristically slapped them down time and time again. Historically, the Justice Department has won about 70 percent of its cases before the high court. But in each of the last three terms, the Court has ruled against the administration a majority of the time.  So even the liberal justices on the Court, including the two justices appointed by President Barack Obama — Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor — have disagreed with the DOJ’s positions. As George Mason University law professor Ilya Somin told the Washington Times last year, ‘When the administration loses significant cases in unanimous decisions and cannot even hold the votes of its own appointees . . . it is an indication that they adopted such an extreme position on the scope of federal power that even generally sympathetic judges could not even support it.’

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From Left to Right, Opposition to the Transpacific Partnership

Lost in the various arguments for and against the Trans Pacific Partnership  is the unpleasant reality that there is little to reason to believe that it will right the persistent inequities that have detrimentally affected American businesses and workers .

In a fascinating development, two senators, who are not only from different political parties but who are as far apart ideologically as possible have come to the same conclusion in their opposition to the President’s push to pass the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty.

Writing in the Guardian, Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont),  a self-avowed socialist, noted: “The TPP is simply the continuation of a failed approach to trade …Before even Congress votes on any final trade agreement, the President has asked for ‘fast track authority’ … to complete TPP negotiations with 11 other countries. Fast track would relinquish Congress’s constitutional authority to the President to “regulate commerce with foreign nations”, limit our debate and prevent members of Congress from improving trade agreements to benefit the American people. … Our goal in Congress must be to make sure that American-made products, not American jobs, are our number-one export. We’ll never be able to do that if we enact the TPP and continue negotiating other treaties based on the same failed policies…”

Senator Jeff Session, a conservative, (R-Al) recently detailed his five major objections to the Trans Pacific Partnership treaty:

  1. “Consolidation Of Power In The Executive Branch. TPA eliminates Congress’ ability to amend or debate trade implementing legislation and guarantees an up-or-down vote on a far-reaching international agreement before that agreement has received any public review. Not only will Congress have given up the 67-vote threshold for a treaty and the 60-vote threshold for important legislation, but will have even given up the opportunity for amendment and the committee review process that both ensure member participation. Crucially, this applies not only to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) but all international trade agreements during the life of the TPA.

“There is no real check on the expiration of fast-track authority: if Congress does not affirmatively refuse to reauthorize TPA at the end of the defined authorization (2018), the authority is automatically renewed for an additional three years so long as the President requests the extension. And if a trade deal (not just TPP but any trade deal) is submitted to Congress that members believe does not fulfill, or that directly violates, the TPA recommendations—or any laws of the United States—it is exceptionally difficult for lawmakers to seek legislative redress or remove it from the fast track, as the exit ramp is under the exclusive control of the revenue and Rules committees. Moreover, while the President is required to submit a report to Congress on the terms of a trade agreement at least 60 days before submitting implementing legislation, the President can classify or otherwise redact information from this report, limiting its value to Congress. Is TPA designed to protect congressional responsibilities, or to limit Congress’ ability to do its duty?

  1. “Increased Trade Deficits. Barclays estimates that during the first quarter of this year, the overall U.S. trade deficit will reduce economic growth by .2 percent. History suggests that trade deals set into motion under the 6-year life of TPA could exacerbate our trade imbalance, acting as an impediment to both GDP and wage growth. Labor economist Clyde Prestowitz attributes 60 percent of the U.S.’ 5.7 million manufacturing jobs lost over the last decade to import-driven trade imbalances. And in a recent column for Reuters, a former chief executive officer at AT&T notes that “since the [NAFTA and South Korea free trade] pacts were implemented, U.S. trade deficits, which drag down economic growth, have soared more than 430 percent with our free-trade partners.

“In the same period, they’ve declined 11 percent with countries that are not free-trade partners… Obama’s 2011 trade deal with South Korea, which serves as the template for the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, has resulted in a 50 percent jump in the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea in its first two years. This equates to 50,000 U.S. jobs lost.” Job loss by U.S. workers means reduced consumer demand, less tax revenue flowing into the Treasury, and greater reliance on government assistance programs. It is important that Congress fully understand the impact of this very large trade agreement and to use caution to ensure the interests of the people are protected. Furthermore, the lack of protections in TPA against foreign subsidies could accelerate our shrinking domestic manufacturing base. We have been getting out-negotiated by our mercantilist trading partners for years, failing to aggressively advance legitimate U.S. interests, but the proponents of TPA have apparently not sought to rectify this problem. TPA proponents must answer this simple question: will your plan shrink the trade deficit or will it grow it even wider?

3. “Ceding Sovereign Authority To International Powers. A USTR outline of the TransPacific Partnership (which TPA would expedite) notes in the “Key Features” summary that the TPP is a “living agreement.” This means the President could update the agreement “as appropriate to address trade issues that emerge in the future as well as new issues that arise with the expansion of the agreement to include new countries.” The “living agreement” provision means that participating nations could both add countries to the TPP without Congress’ approval (like China), and could also change any of the terms of the agreement, including in controversial areas such as the entry of foreign workers and foreign employees. Again: these changes would not be subject to congressional approval.
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“This has far-reaching implications: the Congressional Research Service reports that if the United States signs on to an international trade agreement, the implementing legislation of that trade agreement (as a law passed later in time) would supersede conflicting federal, state, and local laws. When this occurs, U.S. workers may be subject to a sudden change in tariffs, regulations, or dispute resolution proceedings in international tribunals outside the U.S. Promoters of TPA should explain why the American people ought to trust the Administration and its foreign partners to revise or rewrite international agreements, or add new members to those agreements, without congressional approval. Does this not represent an abdication of congressional authority?

  1. “Currency Manipulation. The biggest open secret in the international market is that other countries are devaluing their currencies to artificially lower the price of their exports while artificially raising the price of our exports to them. The result has been a massive bleeding of domestic manufacturing wealth. In fact, currency manipulation can easily dwarf tariffs in its economic impact. A 2014 biannual report from the Treasury Department concluded that the yuan, or renminbi, remained significantly undervalued, yet the Treasury Department failed to designate China as a “currency manipulator.” History suggests this Administration, like those before it, will not stand up to improper currency practices.

 “Currency protections are currently absent from TPA, indicating again that those involved in pushing these trade deals do not wish to see these currency abuses corrected. Therefore, even if currency protections are somehow added into TPA, it is still entirely possible that the Administration could ignore those guidelines and send Congress unamendable trade deals that expose U.S. workers to a surge of underpriced foreign imports. President Obama’s longstanding resistance to meaningful currency legislation is proof he intends to take no action. The President has repeatedly failed to stand up to currency manipulators. Why should we believe this time will be any different?

  1. “Immigration Increases. There are numerous ways TPA could facilitate immigration increases above current law—and precious few ways anyone in Congress could stop its happening. For instance: language could be included or added into the TPP, as well as any future trade deal submitted for fast-track consideration in the next 6 years, with the clear intent to facilitate or enable the movement of foreign workers and employees into the United States (including intracompany transfers), and there would be no capacity for lawmakers to strike the offending provision. The Administration could also simply act on its own to negotiate foreign worker increases with foreign trading partners without ever advertising those plans to Congress. In 2011, the United States entered into an agreement with South Korea—never brought before Congress—to increase the duration of L-1 visas (a visa that affords no protections for U.S. workers).

“Every year, tens of thousands of foreign guest workers come to the U.S. as part of past trade   deals. However, because there is little transparency, estimating an exact figure is difficult. The plain language of TPA provides avenues for the Administration and its trading partners to facilitate the expanded movement of foreign workers into the U.S.— including visitor visas that are used as worker visas…Stating that “TPP contains no change to immigration law” is a semantic rather than a factual argument. Language already present in both TPA and TPP provide the basis for admitting more foreign workers, and for longer periods of time, and language could later be added to TPP or any future trade deal to further increase such admissions.

“The President has already subjected American workers to profound wage loss through executive-ordered foreign worker increases on top of existing record immigration levels. Yet, despite these extraordinary actions, the Administration will casually assert that is has merely modernized, clarified, improved, streamlined, and updated immigration rules. Thus, at any point during the 6-year life of TPA, the Administration could send Congress a trade deal—or issue an executive action subsequent to a trade deal as part of its implementation—that increased foreign worker entry into the U.S., all while claiming it has never changed immigration law.

“The…TPA would yield new power to the executive to alter admissions while subtracting congressional checks against those actions…The Supreme Court has consistently held that the Constitution grants Congress plenary authority over immigration policy. … Granting the President TPA could enable controversial changes or increases to a wide variety of visas—such as the H-1B, B-1, E-1, and L-1—including visas that confer foreign nationals with a pathway to a green card and thus citizenship. Future trade deals could also have the possible effect of preventing Congress from reforming abuses in our guest worker programs, as countries could complain that limitations on foreign worker travel constituted a trade barrier requiring adjudication by an international body.

“The TPP also includes an entire chapter on “Temporary Entry” that applies to all parties and that affects U.S. immigration law. Additionally, the Temporary Entry chapter creates a separate negotiating group, explicitly contemplating that the parties to the TPP will revisit temporary entry at some point in the future for the specific purpose of making changes to this chapter—after Congress would have already approved the TPP. This possibility grows more acute given that TPP is a ‘living agreement’ that can be altered without Congress. Proponents of TPA should be required to answer this question: if you are confident that TPA would not enable any immigration actions between now and its 2021 expiration, why not include ironclad enforcement language to reverse any such presidential action?”

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The world’s nuclear arsenals

Russia now leads the United States in nuclear warheads, and China is the only nation known to have increased its total nuclear weapons stockpile in the past year, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI.)

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has also reported that Moscow has a ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons.

While information from the United States was readily accessible for the study,   “Russia divulged nothing officially, except in bilateral contacts with the U.S…China revealed little about its arsenal” according to SIPRI.

The Brookings Institute reports that “Russia has an array of strategic modernization programs underway. It has launched the first three of what are planned to be eight Borey-class ballistic missile submarines, which carry the new Bulava SLBM. Russia is also deploying the SS-27 Topol-M ICBM and its multiple-warhead variant, the RS-24 Yars, and plans to begin deployment of the RS-26 ICBM in 2016. The Russian Air Force is developing a new strategic bomber, the PAK-DA, to augment or replace its Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95 Bear-H aircraft… the Russian military is developing the new Sarmat ICBM, which will reportedly be capable of carrying as many as ten-fifteen warheads. Too large to be mobile, the liquid-fueled Sarmat will be silo-based. Russian analysts have criticized the planned program as destabilizing, particularly in a crisis. They note that large, multiple-warhead ICBMs in silos present attractive targets for a preemptive strike. Indeed, the U.S. Air Force decision to download its Minuteman III ICBMs was driven in part by the calculation that a single-warhead ICBM in a silo would, in a crisis, offer a less inviting target.”

Russia also has an additional advantage: the U.S. has replaced multiple warheads on its missiles with single warheads.

Sputnik News  reports that “The United States and NATO are observing rapid improvements in Russia’s military technologies with increased concern, particularly as US technological advantages over potential adversaries decrease…”

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Worldwide, the total number of nuclear weapons is decreasing, largely due to bilateral agreements between Russia and the U.S., but modernization of atomic arsenals continues.

Worldwide, the totals of warheads are:

Russia: 7,500; USA: 7,260;  China: 260—3,000;  France: 300;  U.K.: 215; Pakistan: 100-120;  India: 90-110; Israel: 80;  North Korea: 6—8.

The reason for the wide range of uncertainty in China’s nuclear arsenal involves the unusual tunnels Beijing has constructed for its nuclear arsenal. According to the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission,  “Does China only have 200 or so nuclear weapons? Perhaps. But if nuclear capable missile deployments is the current driver of how many nuclear weapons China has deployed, perhaps not. The Chinese, after all, claim that they have built 3,000 miles of tunnels to hide China’s missile forces and related warheads and that it continues to build such tunnels.10 If we can’t see all of the nuclear-capable missiles China might have, there’s a chance it may have more than we currently assume. If, in turn, the number of such missiles is a major driver of Chinese nuclear warhead deployments, the later number could be much higher than most assume.”

Iran may soon the nuclear club.  When it does so, it will have the means to deliver its weapons through technology from its space program and advanced missile technology.

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Why ISIS succeeds

ISIS continues to be successful, despite the presence of powerful enemies that all but surround it.

The New York Times recently reported that “Islamic State militants [have] staged attacks near Baghdad and the Libyan city of Surt … underscoring the group’s persistent strength on both fronts despite a months-long American-led air campaign against it in Syria and Iraq.”

The factors behind ISIS’ success are a combination of cold self-interest on the part of one nation and questionable policy choices on the part of another.

IRAN GAINS

Who profits by the continued existence of ISIS? Iran is an enemy of the ultimate terror group, but the Tehran regime is gaining in regional influence and in the spread of its armed forces across the area in its activities to oppose it. The fact is, ISIS has been a great geopolitical gain for the Mullahs. While Iran has taken some military action against ISIS, it has no real vested interest in seeing the group wholly eliminated.

OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS ALLY WITH ISIS

Unlike al Qaeda, which did not succeed as anything other than a terrorist organization, and the Taliban, which is centered in distant Afghanistan, ISIS has provided a territorial and funding structure which other regional terrorist groups can profit from. The March 7 “pledge of allegiance” by Africa’s Boko Haram demonstrates the significance of ISIS’ unique structure. Earlier this year, Boko Haram “pledged allegiance” to ISIS, and Breitbart reports that Al-Shabaab may do the same.

WASHINGTON’S POLICY ERRORS AND LOW-KEY MILITARY RESPONSE

Washington’s policy choices loom large In the face of this growing alliance of terrorist organizations, and the rise to regional dominance by Iran.
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The premature withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq gave rise to the power vacuum that allowed ISIS to flourish. President Obama’s decision to assist in eliminating the regime of Muammar Gaddafi gave ISIS a path to both Europe and Africa. The announced withdrawal of the bulk of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the non-response to the attack on the American facility in Benghazi, the failure to act upon the violation of the “Red Line” in Syria, and the refusal to adequately support U.S. allies in the region has left pragmatists in the Middle East and Africa with little confidence they can face down ISIS armed might. Combined with the inability to prevent the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, American influence in the region is clearly diminishing.

Indeed, the insufficient U.S. military response to ISIS’ gains has been noticed across the world, both by friends and enemies. The International Business Times  reported that President Assad stated that “U.S.-led airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria have made no difference on the ground.”  The Guardian reports that “US-led air strikes in northern Syria have failed to interrupt the advance of Islamic State (Isis) fighters. “ CNN reports that members of ISIS claim the air strikes are “trivial at best.”

Senator John McCain has complained that U.S. air strikes “lack vigor.” Speaking during May on the CBS news program “Face the Nation,” McCain noted that “We need to have a robust strategy…We need more troops on the ground. We need forward air controllers. But just referring to airstrikes, do you know that 75 percent of those combat missions return to base without having fired a weapon? It’s because we don’t have somebody on the ground who can identify … a moving target. … We found in Vietnam that if you don’t have the right strategy, airpower is minimal in its effect.”

The Wall Street Journal called early American efforts “The Unserious Air War Against ISIS.”

The criticism is not centered on the success of the air strikes that have been conducted, but on the fact that there have been too little of them, particularly when compared with average daily airstrikes during the Bosnian conflict and the Gulf wars. There has been some Special Forces activity, and more U.S. “advisers” are to be committed to the effort, but the failure to truly commit adequate strength to the effort is noticeable by friend and foe alike.

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Connecticut’s fiscal suicide–and America’s.

Is Connecticut committing financial suicide? The question is vital not only to those who live within its borders, but to every American.

Worsening an already bad financial climate, the state has passed a $1.2 billion tax increase. In addition to income and sales tax hikes, levies on data processing will triple by 2016. A 20% surcharge on corporate taxes that was supposed to expire was renewed for an extra two years, and a new formula to tax corporate profits across state lines was adopted.

Even before the hikes, Connecticut’s economy was deeply troubled. The American Legislative Exchange Council  ranked it as 45th in economic performance, and 47th in economic outlook.

According to the states’ CBIA Government affairs organization organization, “The reality is Connecticut’s reputation as a place to do business will worsen, eroding jobs and revenues…Connecticut lost population last year—not because we don’t tax enough services or tax rates are too low—but because people with capital to invest went to more favorable locations, and others left to find better job opportunities. Adding more costs onto those who create jobs and those who fill them will only make matters worse.”

The concern was echoed by the Yankee Institute for Public Policy  “Some politicians don’t seem to understand that tax policies have consequences,” said Carol Platt Liebau, Yankee Institute president. “The more you tax something, the less of it you get – and that goes not just for businesses and jobs, but also for the affluent – who happen to be the most mobile segment of society.”

In 1991, Connecticut became the first state in 34 years to adopt an income tax. Writing in The Washington Policy Institute Fergus Cullen analyzed what followed:

“When Connecticut adopted its income tax, the state gave up a huge competitive advantage over neighboring Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey.  Absent that advantage, Connecticut has lost one in ten residents in net population migration to other states.  People are voting with their feet – and their U-Haul vans.

“This is especially true of the affluent, many of whom already have second homes, typically in other states, and choices about where they reside for tax purposes.  Tax data indicates that those who moved out of Connecticut have significantly higher incomes than the fewer who move in.  Those who remain pay higher taxes to make up the difference.

“Population loss hurts in non-economic ways, too. As Yogi Berra might have said, it is hard to see the people who aren’t here.  There are one in ten fewer Rotarians, one in ten fewer youth sports coaches, one in ten fewer volunteers giving time to local non-profits.  Young people are less likely to live in the communities where they grew up.  Grandparents live further from their grandchildren.  The income tax has led to a huge loss of social capital that is hard to measure but nonetheless real.”
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The latest tax increases will add to those woes.

In 2013, The CATO Institute asked how the state fell into its financial free fall:

“Connecticut has so many advantages that it might be hard to understand how it became one of America’s worst-performing state economies…during the past two decades some 300,000 more Connecticut residents have moved out of the state than have moved in….

“Perhaps with the complacency of old money, Connecticut policymakers came to believe they didn’t need to compete for investors and entrepreneurs — the key people who make prosperity happen…

“During the last century, Connecticut’s state government became bigger, raising taxes and in other ways making it more costly to do business.  Connecticut certainly wasn’t the only state to have adopted such policies, but many states avoided them and prospered.

“Connecticut economic regulations multiplied, further increasing the cost of doing business. Steven P. Lanza, reporting in The Connecticut Economy, published quarterly by the University of Connecticut, found that “excessive regulation plays a role in hamstringing business owners and entrepreneurs who simply don’t have the resources of larger firms to cope with these constraints…

“In addition, state land use restrictions have limited the number of suitable business locations and often made it harder to establish a business.”

The residents of the nation’s 49 other states should care about Connecticut’s fate. It’s path of higher taxes, higher spending, and increased regulation are precisely the same course that the federal government has embarked on. The consequences for the whole American economy are equally dire.

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Illegal immigrants voting: a campaign 2016 issue

A recent Rasmussen poll  indicates that a majority of Democrats believe illegal aliens should be allowed to vote. According to the poll, “one-out-of-three Likely U.S. Voters (35%) now believes that illegal immigrants should be allowed to vote if they can prove they live in this country and pay taxes. Sixty percent (60%) disagree, while five percent (5%) are undecided.  Fifty-three percent (53%) of Democrats think tax-paying illegal immigrants should have the right to vote. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Republicans and 30% of voters not affiliated with either major political party agree… Women are more supportive than men of letting tax-paying illegal immigrants vote, but the two are in general agreement that the size of voting districts should be determined by counting only the number of eligible voters.” (The Supreme Court will soon decide whether illegals should be counted in determining the size of districts.)

Earlier this year, state election officials testified before Congress that President Obama’s    temporary deportation amnesty plans would make it easier for illegals to vote, since the illegals would have access to social security cards and drivers licenses.

The issue has been introduced into the 2016 Presidential campaign by Hillary Clinton, who has made allegations of voter suppression supposedly at the hands of Republicans.  On May 31, according to the New York Times, Clinton “accused Republicans including her potential rivals Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Rick Perry of ‘deliberately trying to stop’ young people and minorities — both vital Democratic constituencies — from exercising their right to vote. She called for automatic voter registration in every state when young people turn 18, criticized Republican-sponsored voting laws in North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin, and urged Congress to take immediate action to reinstate an important provision of the Voting Rights Act that she said the Supreme Court had “eviscerated” in a 2013 ruling…In addition to areas she said needed to be addressed, like easier online registration, shorter lines at polling precincts and a minimum of 20 days for early voting before an election, Mrs. Clinton called for a nationwide law modeled on one recently passed in Oregon that automatically adds voters to the rolls when they turn 18, using driver’s license data. Residents would have to opt out to avoid being added to the voter rolls.”

Those tolerant of illegal immigrant voting often camouflage their arguments by stating that voter ID laws, meant to discourage unlawful voting of any sort, are being aimed at young people or minorities. There is no evidence to back up that assertion.  Indeed, Judicial Watch  has found that in a case study in North Carolina, minority voter turnout actually increased since the passage of North Carolina’s election integrity bill.

Fraudulent voting is not confined to illegal immigrants. In 2012, reports the Washington Examiner,  Wendy Rosen, The Democratic candidate for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District , was forced to end her candidacy  after it was discovered that she committed voter fraud by casting a ballot in both Maryland and Florida in multiple political contests. Her story is similar to an incident in Connecticut reported by the Washington Times. “State Rep. Christina Ayala of Connecticut, a Democrat from Bridgeport, was caught voting early and often. She has been charged with 19 felony counts. Her arrest forced Connecticut Democrats to adopt a new and revised message: Election fraud doesn’t occur — but when it does, we won’t tolerate it. ‘While everyone is entitled to their day in court,’ says Connecticut Secretary of State Denise W. Merrill, ‘voter fraud is a very serious crime, for which we have zero tolerance.”
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Authoritative studies previously reported by the New York Analysis of Policy & Government have provided evidence of extensive voter registration fraud, and a reluctance or inability on the part of officials to confront the issue.

Conservative commentator Phyllis Schlafly Believes that “Hillary Clinton …[has] apparently decided it won’t be enough to rely on the 66 million people who voted twice for Barack Obama…Who are the new voters to whom Hillary wants to give ‘access to the ballot box’? They include felons and non-citizens, along with anyone who can’t prove identity, citizenship, or residence within the voting precinct. She also plans to harvest millions of new votes by expanding the dangerous practices of same-day registration and early voting, which enable Democrats to badger, berate, bribe, or bamboozle reluctant, low-information voters to the polls. Democratic Party and union workers can identify reluctant voters and harass them until the party worker verifies that they have actually cast their ballot.

“Arizona, which is on the front lines of illegal immigration, has been trying to require proof of citizenship as part of voter registration ever since that simple requirement was approved by Arizona’s voters in 2004. The Obama administration refused to add the proof-of-citizenship requirement to the federal form that Arizona must use for motor-voter registrations. Hillary has assigned her top lawyer to sue Wisconsin to overturn its effective Voter I.D. law, one of the best in the nation. But that’s not all. The New York Times just reported that the left-wing Hungarian billionaire, George Soros, has agreed to pour $5 million into a national effort to protect and expand early voting.”

Preventing illegal immigrants from unlawfully voting is not an easy task. The Washington Times  reported that “secretaries of state from Ohio and Kansas said they won’t have the tools to sniff out illegal immigrants who register anyway, ignoring stiff penalties to fill out the registration forms that are easily available at shopping malls, motor vehicle bureaus and in curbside registration drives. Anyone registering to vote attests that he or she is a citizen, but Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted said mass registration drives often aren’t able to give due attention to that part, and so illegal immigrants will still get through. Kansas Secretary of State Kris W. Kobach said even some motor vehicle bureau workers automatically ask customers if they want to register to vote, which some noncitizens in the past have cited as their reason for breaking the law to register.”

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Will the Income Tax be replaced?

America may be moving closer to a dramatic overhaul of its tax system.

One of the most potentially far-reaching legislative items is currently before the House of Representatives’ Ways and Means Committee. It would affect every taxpayer throughout the U.S. Introduced earlier this year, the continuing budgetary crisis is giving the bill an additional boost.

The Pew Research Center  notes that “The public sees the nation’s tax system as deeply flawed: 59% say “there is so much wrong with the federal tax system that Congress should completely change it.” Just 38% think the system “works pretty well” and requires “only minor changes.” These opinions have changed little since 2011.”

There are numerous views of why the system is flawed, ranging across the political spectrum, but there is widespread dissatisfaction with the current process.

One important concept has been introduced by Rep. Rob Woodal (R-Ga.) H.R. 25, , “the Fair Tax Act of 2015”  would replace the income tax with a national sales tax. ,

According to the Congressional Research Service, H.R. 25 would replace the current tax system with a national sales tax on the use or consumption in the United States of taxable property or services. This would be in lieu of the current income and corporate income tax, employment and self-employment taxes, and estate and gift taxes. The rate of the sales tax under the proposal would be 23% in 2017, with adjustments to the rate in subsequent years. There are exemptions from the tax for used and intangible property, for property or services purchased for business, export, or investment purposes, and for state government functions.

Under the bill, family members who are lawful U.S. residents receive a monthly sales tax rebate (Family Consumption Allowance) based upon criteria related to family size and poverty guidelines.

The states would have the responsibility for administering, collecting, and remitting the sales tax to the Treasury. The measure abolishes  the IRS by 2019. To insure that it doesn’t become an additional tax instead of a total substitute for the income tax, the legislation would self-terminate if the income tax authorization amendment to the U.S. Constitution (the 16th amendment) is not repealed within seven years of passage.
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According to fairtax.org,  which advocates for the concept,

“Under the FairTax, all Americans consume what they see as their necessities of life free of tax. While permitting no exemptions, the FairTax (HR25 / S155) provides a monthly, universal prebate to ensure that each family unit can consume tax-free up to the poverty level, with the overall effect of making the FairTax progressive in application. This is not an entitlement, but a rebate (in advance) of taxes paid – thus the term prebate. Everyone pays taxes at the cash register.”

Some have questioned whether the idea could work. Forbes Magazine the challenge:

“The rate is too high for it to work as a simple sales tax: there will just be too much dodging of it. It would certainly be possible to make a consumption tax work. It’s certainly possible to have a value added tax, or VAT, at that 25% or so rate. There are other ways of constructing consumption taxes as well: although they would require the filing of tax returns and that’s one of the things the Fair Tax is trying to do away with.

“The basic and simple problem is that trying to charge 25% or so in one single step at that point of final retail sale is too high a tax rate for it to be regularly achievable. You would almost immediately have a spate of long firm frauds. Plus a general move towards a grey, cash based, economy which simply ignored the existence of the tax. This is precisely why those countries which do have a high consumption tax rate do it as a VAT, not as a sales tax.”

(Investopedia defines a VAT as “A type of consumption tax that is placed on a product whenever value is added at a stage of production and at final sale… The amount of value-added tax that the user pays is the cost of the product, less any of the costs of materials used in in the product that have already been taxed.)

Both the Fair Tax and the VAT concepts are closer to the Constitutional model of the relationship between the federal government and private citizens than the current income tax system.

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Dodging the Second Amendment

Repeatedly, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that the Second Amendment provides individuals with the right to bear arms.

The only way the very vocal and insistent opposition to  can legally prevent U.S. citizens from owning weapons is through a repeal of this portion of the Bill of Rights—a move that would most assuredly fail. And so, questionable alternative means are utilized.

One of the key methods employed during the past several years has been an attempt to circumvent Second Amendment guarantees through international treaties.  There is no legal basis for any international agreement, however, to supersede a Constitutional provision.

The Tenth Amendment Center  notes “Treaties cannot override the first eight amendments in the Bill of Rights or the Constitution’s other specific exceptions to federal authority (such as the ban on taxing exports). Those provisions were adopted to deny the federal government authority it otherwise might have. A treaty cannot override those limits. For example, the First Amendment denies Congress authority to ban socialist literature from the postal system. The First Amendment would trump any treaty requiring Congress to do so. Likewise, the Second Amendment denies the federal government power to confiscate hand guns from law-abiding citizens. A treaty cannot take this protection away.”

That has not prevented Second Amendment opponents from trying to interpret international treaties in a manner which could affect domestic gun ownership. One avenue that has been attempted is using the recent United Nations Arms Trade Treaty.

The United Nations Arms Trade Treaty  (ATT) was adopted on April 2, 2013. “The minimum scope of arms covered by the Treaty [is] the seven categories covered by the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms and an eighth category on small arms and light weapons. The  Treaty requires States parties to regulate the export of ammunition/munitions fired, launched or delivered by the conventional arms [and] requires States parties to regulate the export of parts and components where the export is in a form that provides the capability to assemble conventional arms prior to authorising their export. [The treaty] explicitly prohibits…arms transfers that would be contrary to international legal obligations, or where the State knows the arms would be used in the commission of genocide, crimes against humanity and certain war crimes. This provision sets a clear benchmark to allow States parties to effectively and consistently implement these prohibitions.”

There is nothing in that language that can be reasonably be interpreted to restrict domestic gun ownership within the United States.

Newsmax describes describes U.N. efforts as including measures such as creating a national gun registry; mandating control of firearms and ammunition; regulating the manufacture of gun parts; and limiting stores’ ability to sell firearms.
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The National Rifle Association  is concerned that, under the guise of complying with international agreements,

“ the Obama State Department has been quietly moving ahead with a proposal that could censor online speech related to firearms. This latest regulatory assault, published in the June 3 issue of the Federal Register, is as much an affront to the First Amendment as it is to the Second…

“For the past several years, the Administration has been pursuing a large-scale overhaul of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which implement the federal Arms Export Control Act (AECA). The Act regulates the movement of so-called “defense articles” and “defense services” in and out of the United States. These articles and services are enumerated in a multi-part “U.S. Munitions List,” which covers everything from firearms and ammunition (and related accessories) to strategic bombers. The transnational movement of any defense article or service on the Munitions List presumptively requires a license from the State Department. Producers of such articles and services, moreover, must register with the U.S. Government and pay a hefty fee for doing so. Also regulated under ITAR are so-called “technical data” about defense articles. These include, among other things, “detailed design, development, production or manufacturing information” about firearms or ammunition. Specific examples of technical data are blueprints, drawings, photographs, plans, instructions or documentation.

“In their current form, the ITAR do not (as a rule) regulate technical data that are in what the regulations call the ‘public domain.’ Essentially, this means data ‘which is published and which is generally accessible or available to the public’ through a variety of specified means. These include ‘at libraries open to the public or from which the public can obtain documents.’ Many have read this provision to include material that is posted on publicly available websites, since most public libraries these days make Internet access available to their patrons.

“The ITAR, however, were originally promulgated in the days before the Internet. Some State Department officials now insist that anything published online in a generally-accessible location has essentially been “exported,” as it would be accessible to foreign nationals both in the U.S. and overseas.

“With the new proposal published on June 3, the State Department claims to be ‘clarifying’ the rules concerning ‘technical data’ posted online or otherwise ‘released into the public domain.’ To the contrary, however, the proposal would institute a massive new prior restraint on free speech. This is because all such releases would require the ‘authorization’ of the government before they occurred. The cumbersome and time-consuming process of obtaining such authorizations, moreover, would make online communication about certain technical aspects of firearms and ammunition essentially impossible. Penalties for violations are severe and for each violation could include up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $1 million. Civil penalties can also be assessed. Each unauthorized ‘export,’ including to subsequent countries or foreign nationals, is also treated as a separate violation.”

The proposal is being challenged.  It will not be the last attempt to do an end-run around the Bill of Rights.

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Mixed news on U.S. Housing

Americans are persistently told that the U.S. economy is gaining strength, yet there are many indicators that appear to contradict that rosy analysis.

The housing market is an area of mixed indicators. Some prices are up, but other issues remain worrisome.

One such indicator concerns “HELOCS.”  According to a TD Bank description, a HELOC is “A home equity line of credit (often called HELOC and pronounced Hee-lock) is a loan in which the lender agrees to lend a maximum amount within an agreed period (called a term), where the collateral is the borrower’s equity in his/her house (akin to a second mortgage).

The Wall Street Journal reports that “A decade after homeowners used a soaring real-estate market to go on a borrowing binge against their own properties, many are now falling behind on payments, threatening to leave banks on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars…borrowers who signed up for HELOCS in 2004 were 30 or more days late on $1.8 billion worth of outstanding balances just four months after principal payments started kicking in”

Mortgage expert Chris Cabanillas notes that “It’s a real concern and something we have been warning about for a few years.”

There are also other factors hampering the housing market, as well. The Wall Street Journal also notes that “many families lack the incomes or savings needed to buy homes, creating a surge of renters and a shortage of affordable housing.”

Many of those who do own homes face an uncertain future. CNBC  reports that “Of the approximately 952,000 borrowers who are 90 or more days past due on their monthly payments, but not yet in foreclosure, 62 percent have already been through some form of home retention program,” so the chances of a successful outcome are not good.

Selling will not be a viable option for many, according to an Atlantic magazine analysis.  “Across America about 5.4 million homes are still upside-down on their mortgages…in some areas, negative equity is actually deepening.”
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While providing some optimism, (“Consumer attitudes about the housing market showed marked improvement last month, strengthening the case for a lift in housing activity this year”) the May Fannie Mae survey pointed out cause for concern.

“Those who think it would be easy to get a home mortgage decreased by 2 percentage points to 50 percent, while those who think it would be difficult remained at 46 percent.

” The share of respondents who say the economy is on the right track decreased by 4 percentage points to 38 percent, while those who say the economy is on the wrong track rose by 3 percentage points to 52 percent.

“The percentage of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get worse over the next 12 months rose to 12 percent.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has also surveyed the housing market. Similar to several other studies, it provided generally favorable indicators, but there were also negative trends regarding home prices and the value of their homes.

“Among homeowners, the expressed likelihood of investing in improvements to the home has declined somewhat relative to last year. Most renters report that they would rather own than rent if they had the necessary financial resources; as in last year’s survey, a majority of them believe that it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage, although responses suggest a slight easing in perceived credit access.

“Home Price Expectations Survey respondents were asked for the current value of a typical home in their zip code, and what they expected the value of that home to be in one year. and in five years. On average, respondents expected home prices to increase by 4.4 percent over the next twelve months—a rate 0.1 percentage point higher than the average rate in the 2014 survey and remarkably close to the mean forecast of 4.37 percent in a January 2015 survey of housing market experts conducted by Pulsenomics. The median expectation in the 2015 survey of 3.0 percent, however, was lower than the 2014 median of 3.3 percent. With regard to longer-term expectations, the average (median) expected annualized change in home prices over the next five years was 2.9 percent (2.4 percent). These figures were slightly lower than the corresponding figures in the 2014 survey, where the mean (median) expected annualized change in home prices over the longer horizon was 3.1 percent (2.6 percent). Thus, overall, respondents expected home price growth to continue, but at a slower pace at a horizon beyond one year.”

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China releases its Military Strategy paper

Beijing has increased its rate of military spending at a pace faster than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. during the height of the Cold War. It’s recently released military strategy document portrays the nation’s rise to military superpower status as defensive: (The text of China’s Military Strategy statement was recently released by the U.S. Naval Institute. The full document can be viewed at http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Quotes directly from it are in italics.)

“Building a strong national defense and powerful armed forces is a strategic task of China’s modernization drive and a security guarantee for China’s peaceful development. Subordinate to and serving the national strategic goal, China’s military strategy is an overarching guidance for blueprinting and directing the building and employment of the country’s armed forces. At this new historical starting point, China’s armed forces will adapt themselves to new changes in the national security environment, firmly follow the goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to build a strong military for the new situation, implement the military strategic guideline of active defense in the new situation, accelerate the modernization of national defense and armed forces, resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and provide a strong guarantee for achieving the national strategic goal of the “two centenaries” and for realizing the Chinese Dream of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

The “two centenaries” reference is interesting. By 2020, unless the United States very quickly reverses the decline of its navy, China will have achieved a clear regional naval superiority over the United States. That time frame also incorporates the attainment of several other key goals.

The Diplomat publication http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/why-2020-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-china/ notes that “Those perusing China’s reform plans can’t help but notice a certain date popping up with surprising frequency: 2020. A number of key goals, all seemingly unrelated, are pegged to this date. By 2020, leaders say, China will: achieve a 60 percent urbanization rate; complete construction on the Chinese space station; become an “Internet power”; place a cap on coal use and transition to clean energy; and even (according to unofficial reports) have its first domestically-built aircraft carrier. [China’s current aircraft carrier was built abroad.] Perhaps most importantly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pledged that by 2020, China will be a “moderately well-off society” – meaning, in hard terms, that the per capita income in China will be double the 2010 figure. China will also attempt to double its current GDP in that same timeframe. [America’s GDP declined in the first quarter of 2015.] That, in turn, is supposed to help China establish its international image and build up soft power.” 2021 will also mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

The success of China’s military buildup is reflected in Beijing’s confidence of its new role in the world, as described in its military strategy document:

“Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields.”

Despite Beijing’s powerful armed forces, confidence in its growing power, and its lack of any substantive adversary—Moscow is now an ally, and the United States has sharply diminished its armed forces since fall of the Soviet Union—the document reveals a perception of threats:

“…China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.”
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The reference to “National unification” refers to its goal of incorporating Taiwan, a move opposed by the United States.

“As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its “rebalancing” strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region.”

Both comments overlook actual facts. The U.S. “rebalancing” is little more than public relations, since the dramatically shrunken U.S. Navy simply lacks the ships to make the move anything more than a paper shift.

A significant glimpse into China’s mindset can be obtained in the statement concerning the disputed offshore shoals, which Beijing has occupied and is now, in some instances, militarizing. While the document was expected to assert the nation’s position, a more belligerent attitude was taken:

“On the issues concerning China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.”

The reference to “close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance” refers to U.S. actions in international waters and airspace, as defined under international law.

This document is a glimpse into Beijing’s self-justification for its militaristic rise, and its clear intention to hostilely dominate a portion of the globe vital to U.S. and western economic and security interests.