Month: April 2015

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Is NATO prepared to defend against Russia?

As Russia incorporates its conquest in Ukraine and looks next to intimidating or attacking other states, including  NATO members Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, NATO’s role becomes increasingly crucial.  We have excerpted portions of NATO’s 2014 Annual Report to keep you up to date on the alliance’s status. The excerpts conclude Monday. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s 2014 Annual Report: PART 1.

Foreword

Keeping NATO strong

2014 was a black year for European security. And as we enter 2015, the terrorist attacks in Paris were a stark reminder of the threats and challenges we face. But we also saw millions standing up for our values and our open societies.

Our security environment has changed fundamentally. To the South, violent extremism is at our borders, spreading turmoil across Iraq and Syria and bringing terror to our streets. To the East, Russia has used military force to annex Crimea, destabilise eastern Ukraine, and intimidate its neighbours.

These threats challenge the international order we have built since the fall of the Berlin Wall – an order that embodies our democratic values and is vital for our way of life… it is vital that we invest in our defence. We must spend more and we must spend better. At Wales, NATO Heads of State and Government pledged to stop the cuts in defence spending, to aim to spend 2% of Gross Domestic Product on defence within a decade, and to spend that money more efficiently. I will continue to work with Allies to keep that pledge…Last year, the very foundations of the Euro-Atlantic order came under threat.

CHAPTER I

In 2014, major changes in the security environment increased the threats faced by all NATO members. In Europe, Russia illegally annexed Crimea, fuelled crisis and conflict in Ukraine and spurred tension along NATO’s eastern border. In North Africa and the Middle East, extremist violence and instability spread. Across the world, cyber crime increased in volume and sophistication.

NATO on duty

Nearly one billion people live in the 28 NATO member countries. Every day, NATO is actively engaged to provide for their collective defence and to manage crises in Europe and beyond.

Aggressive actions in the East

In 2014, Russia and Russian-backed separatists began a campaign of violence aimed at destabilising Ukraine as a sovereign state. Russia’s aggressive actions disregard international law and violate security arrangements and commitments that Russia has made, including the Helsinki Final Act. Russia’s recent actions have fundamentally challenged the vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace and are a threat to security and stability in Europe and beyond.

On 2 March 2014, the North Atlantic Council agreed that “military action against Ukraine by forces of the Russian Federation is a breach of international law and contravenes the principles of the NATO-Russia Council and the Partnership for Peace”. One month later, NATO Foreign Ministers agreed to suspend all practical civilian and military cooperation with Russia but to maintain political contacts at and above the level of Ambassador to enable NATO and Russia to exchange views. Two meetings of the NATO-Russia Council about events in and around Ukraine took place at the ambassadorial level following this decision.

For over 20 years, NATO has worked with Russia to build a strong and mutually beneficial partnership, including through the mechanism of the NATO-Russia Council, based on the NATO-Russia Founding Act and the Rome Declaration. Prior to the suspension of practical cooperation, NATO and Russia had been working together on a range of activities including counter-terrorism, counter-piracy and civil emergency response, among others. But as NATO leaders confirmed in Wales, the conditions for a cooperative, constructive relationship do not currently exist. NATO’s relationship with Russia will be contingent on a clear, constructive change in Russia’s behaviour that demonstrates compliance with international law and its international obligations and responsibilities.

The impact of the violence and insecurity caused by Russia and Russian-backed separatists has not been limited to Ukraine. This violence can undermine the safety, stability and well-being of people around the world, as demonstrated by the tragic downing of Malaysia Airlines passenger flight MH17 in July. NATO supports the sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU), the G7 and others as part of an international effort to address Russia’s destabilising behaviour. Instability and unpredictability to the East and the South also prompted NATO to enhance its collective defence to deter potential threats.

Assurance measures

While NATO does not have a permanent military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, Allies have, since April 2014, taken action to demonstrate NATO’s resolve to deter and defend against threats and to provide assurance for the eastern Allies. All 28 NATO members are contributing to these measures, which provide continuous air, land and maritime presence and military activity on a rotational basis. These deployments are limited in scale, designed to reinforce defence, and are in line with NATO’s international commitments.

NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission began 10 years ago to protect the safety and integrity of Allied airspace over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Allies participate in this mission on a rotational basis, and since the start of the mission 14 Allies had deployed 34 contingents to protect the integrity of NATO airspace over the Baltics. Given the increased instability in the region, this deployment was significantly enhanced during 2014. This includes more aircraft policing the airspace of the Baltic States and Poland, additional aircraft based in Romania, and AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance flights over Poland and Romania.
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To provide assurance at sea, NATO deployed a number of multinational maritime forces. A Standing NATO Mine Counter-Measures Group began patrolling the Baltic Sea in April 2014 with seven ships from six countries. In the Eastern Mediterranean, an enlarged Standing NATO Maritime Group began conducting maritime assurance measures in addition to counter-terrorism patrols in May 2014, with five ships from as many countries…

Violent instability in the South

Fighting in Iraq and Syria cost thousands of lives in 2014 and fuelled humanitarian and security challenges for the region and the world. The so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) poses a grave threat to the region and serious challenges for NATO’s members and partners. The Assad regime has contributed to the emergence of ISIL in Syria and its expansion beyond. NATO has condemned the violent and cowardly acts of ISIL. At the NATO Summit in Wales leaders expressed their collective outrage at the barbaric attacks against all civilian populations. They also affirmed that NATO would not hesitate to take all necessary steps to ensure the collective defence of every Ally, wherever and whatever the threat.

Since early 2013, NATO has deployed Patriot missiles to augment Turkey’s air defences against any missile threat from Syria. The Alliance is working to enhance cooperation in exchanging information on residents from NATO countries who travel to Iraq and Syria to fight alongside ISIL. NATO is also working with partners in the region to help build defence and security capacity. This enhanced cooperation has begun in Jordan. At the end of 2014, Iraq requested assistance to build its defence capacity.

Readiness Action Plan

At the Wales Summit, NATO agreed a plan to ensure that the Alliance is ready to respond swiftly and firmly to new security challenges. This Readiness Action Plan (RAP) is the most significant reinforcement of NATO’s collective defence since the end of the Cold War. Through a range of assurance measures and adaptation measures, the RAP addresses risks and threats from the East and the South and provides the building blocks with which NATO can respond to any challenge, current or future.

The assurance measures in the RAP include the continuous air, land and maritime presence that began in April 2014. At their meeting in December, NATO Foreign Ministers welcomed plans for continuing this presence throughout 2015. Every NATO member is contributing to these measures, in a spirit of solidarity summed up as “28 for 28”. This baseline for assurance and deterrence is flexible and can be adjusted in response to the evolving security situation.

The RAP introduced a number of measures to adapt NATO’s strategic military posture. The NATO Response Force – a multinational force with land, air, maritime and Special Operations Forces components – will be enhanced, including by establishing a spearhead force that will be able to deploy within days, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s territory. This Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) will include elements of all military services and Special Operations Forces, and will be tested through short-notice exercises. In addition, the RAP calls for a number of logistics enhancements, including the prepositioning of equipment and supplies, to enhance NATO’s readiness to respond to any challenge to Allied security…

Operation Active Endeavour

Under Operation Active Endeavour, Allied ships are patrolling the Mediterranean Sea, monitoring shipping to help deter, defend, disrupt and protect against terrorist activity. The operation evolved out of NATO’s immediate response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States and has continued to adapt to meet evolving security risks…

Afghanistan

2014 marked the final year of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, the largest operation in the history of the Alliance. The aim of ISAF was consistent throughout the operation: to ensure that Afghanistan is never again a safe haven for international terrorists. The ISAF mission has concluded, and NATO remains committed to supporting Afghanistan in making further progress towards becoming a stable, sovereign, democratic and united country…

Kosovo

2014 marked the 15th year of the NATO-led force (Kosovo Force or KFOR) that was deployed … NATO’s role in Kosovo has evolved over this period to include assisting in the return and relocation of displaced persons and refugees, providing medical assistance, protecting patrimonial sites, suppressing cross-border weapons smuggling, and helping stand down the wartime security corps and establish the Kosovo Security Forces, along with structures to provide civilian oversight…

Counter-piracy

In 2014, the international efforts to counter piracy off the Horn of Africa and in the Gulf of Aden yielded continued success. The number of piracy incidents off the coast of Somalia reached its lowest in recent years; no ships have been seized since May 2012, and there were fewer than five incidents in 2014. In 2010 and 2011, there were over 120 attacks per year. NATO’s Operation Ocean Shield, in close cooperation with the US-led Combined Maritime Forces, the EU Naval Forces and independent contributors to these efforts, has effectively and dramatically reduced pirate activity in the region…

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The Muslim Immigration Question

It has been a given that immigration should be essentially nonjudgmental in western nations, forbidding entry, within the limits of totals allowed,  only to those with clearly outlined criminal records.  That paradigm is beginning to be questioned.

In the United States, Investors.com reports that potential presidential candidate Bobby Jindal has “proposed barring adherents to ‘radical Islam.’ …’We shouldn’t tolerate those who want to come and try to impose some variant of Shariah law,’ the Louisiana governor asserted. “I fear if we don’t insist on assimilation, we then go the way of Europe.”

Europe, beset by violence and separatism caused by radical Islam, is also questioning its immigration policies. Britain’s NDTV reports that “The head of the UK Independence Party …promised to slash net migration into Britain by 90 per cent.”

Much of the second guessing of immigration policy is related to practices such as female genital mutilation and demands for the implementation of Shariah law.

According to the Investors report, “The number of girls at risk for genital cutting in the U.S. has more than doubled over the past decade, according to the Population Reference Bureau. A forthcoming report by the federal Centers for Disease Control reveals that more than half a million — 513,000 — women and girls are living with such mutilation in the country today. Gynecologists in Minneapolis, New York, Detroit, the Washington area and other cities with large Muslim populations say they are seeing a lot more FGM cases. The problem has grown so bad that the federal Office of Refugee Settlement has promoted a webinar on how to stop FGM among the waves of refugees coming from African and Mideast counties.”

The issue in the U.S. flared up again following the State Department’s December announcement  that it plans to allow significant numbers of Syrian refugees relocate into the U.S.
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While the tragedy faced by the Syrian people is terrible and their need great, many in the U.S. are concerned that their numbers contain a substantial percentage of hard-core adherents to a harsh form of Islam that seeks to impose its religious views and values through any means necessary on the rest of the world.

A 2012 Pew Research Center study reports that there are 3,480,Muslims in the United States, compared to 43,490,000 in Europe. The study also notes that they “are younger than the general population in each of the major regions for which data are available: North America (Muslims 26 years; general population 37 years), Europe (32 vs. 40), Asia and the Pacific (24 v s. 29), sub-Saharan Africa (17 vs. 18) and the Middle East and North Africa (2 3 vs. 24).”

Many of the demands of those opposing the practice of allowing significant Muslim immigration to the U.S. center on concerns about allowing terrorists enter the nation. The Center for Immigration Studies  (CIS) recently wrote in National Review Online “Our federal government doesn’t do nearly enough to keep potential allies of groups like al-Shabaab out of the United States. Especially notorious is the flow of refugees from war-torn, predominantly Islamic Somalia, but a whole raft of refugee and asylum programs present concerns. There are several documented instances of Somalis who, given safe haven by our country, left America to join and fight with al-Shabaab in Somalia, that lawless and lost land, and even with ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Liban Haji Mohamed, a former Somali refugee who later naturalized, is the most recent addition to the FBI’s 10 Most Wanted list, for his activities in support of al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda. One of the Kenya mall attackers was a former refugee who had lived in Minnesota.”

It would be misleading to frame the objections of those, such as the Independence Party in the U.K. or Governor Jindal in the U.S., as limited only to the threat of terrorism. Many are concerned that those Muslims who follow the normal path of immigrants and eventually seek to assimilate into western culture will be subjected to harsh acts and even murder by extremist elements, leaving their adopted nations in a state of turmoil.

The U.S. has absorbed many larger waves of immigrants in the past, and the nation grew richer for the strength in diversity it produced. But America has no substantial experience in absorbing those who belong to a faith currently characterized by those who wish to impose their beliefs and practices, by violence if necessary, on all.

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America’s Navy is sinking

The U.S. Navy’s capacity to protect America and insure safety and commerce on the high seas is rapidly sinking.

In 1990, the Navy’s 600 ships guarded the U.S., and  insured international peace as well as orderly global commerce. Today, the aging 250 ship fleet faces major threats from dramatically increased and hostile Russian and Chinese naval forces, as well as regional challenges from Iran. China’s naval force will be larger than the America’s within five years, and both Russia and China have technologies that places even the most powerful U.S. vessels at high risk. In a recent Wall Street Journal interview, Admiral Gary Roughead stated that China “doesn’t want to build a navy that’s equivalent to the U.S., [they] want to build a navy that surpasses the U.S.”

The problem is about to get worse.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS)   “The planned size of the Navy, the rate of Navy ship procurement, and the prospective affordability of the Navy’s shipbuilding plans have been matters of concern for the congressional defense committees for the past several years. The Navy’s FY2015 30-year (FY2015-FY2044) shipbuilding plan…does not include enough ships to fully support all elements of the Navy’s 306-ship goal over the entire 30-year period.

“In particular, the Navy projects that the fleet would experience a shortfall in amphibious ships from FY2015 through FY2017, a shortfall in small surface combatants from FY2015 through FY2027, and a shortfall in attack submarines from FY2025 through FY2034…[the] Navy is still recovering from the FY 2013 sequestration in terms of maintenance, training, and deployment lengths. Only 1/3 of Navy contingency response forces are ready to deploy within the required 30 days…

“Unless naval forces are properly sized, modernized at the right pace, ready to deploy with adequate training and equipment, and capable to respond in the numbers and at the speed required by Combatant Commanders, they will not be able to carry out the Nation’s defense strategy as written. We will be compelled to go to fewer places, and do fewer things. Most importantly, when facing major contingencies, our ability to fight and win will neither be quick nor decisive. Unless this Nation envisions a significantly diminished global security role for its military, we must address the growing mismatch in ends, ways, and means. The world is becoming more complex, uncertain, and turbulent. Our adversaries’ capabilities are diversifying and expanding. Naval forces are more important than ever in building global security, projecting power, deterring foes, and rapidly responding to crises that affect our national security.”
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Mistakes made today will have consequences for decades to come.  Naval vessels cannot be built rapidly, particularly with America’s reduced shipbuilding capacity. As quoted in a recent Breaking Defense article,   “Navy Secretary Ray Mabus told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 10th, ‘you see the effects today on….our shipyards. You’ll see the effects on our fleet ten years from now, 15 years from now, 20 years from now’…The moral, as Mabus told Senate appropriators, is that ‘if you miss a year building a Navy ship, you never make it up.”

Breaking Defense also quotes Admiral Jonathan Greenert ‘s statement that

“I worry about the shipbuilding industrial base… If sequestration forces steep cuts to the Navy’s shipbuilding account … the impact on the size of the fleet “would take years to manifest,” …  last for decades, so building fewer today generally comes back to bite you in a generation…

“But more importantly,” the admiral went on, “there’s some likelihood we lose one or two [ship] builders, and we only have five. Bath Iron Works in Maine, Electric Boat in Connecticut, Newport News in Virginia, Ingalls in Mississippi, and NASSCO in California: These are the “Big Five,” down from the “Big Six” since the closure of Avondale in Louisiana. (Concentrating the industry even more, Ingalls and Newport belong to Huntington-Ingalls Industries; the other three yards all belong to General Dynamics). Could we really go down to a Big Four or even a Big Three?”

Testifying before Congress in March, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter noted “For decades…U.S. global power projection has relied on the ships, planes, submarines, bases, aircraft carriers, satellites, networks and other advanced capabilities that comprise the military’s technological edge…Today that superiority is being challenged in unprecedented ways.”  Carter also stated that America’s aircraft carrier fleet will probably continue to be reduced in size.

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Mexico exports gang crisis to U.S.

Despite the waves of immigrants streaming across the inadequately patrolled American southern border, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) removed 52,701 less individuals in fy2014 than in fy2013.

Mexico is a nation besieged by a massive criminal gang problem.  In several areas, these illicit organizations wield more power than the government. Now, they are exporting that crisis north to the United States.

According to the Center for Immigration Studies  (CIS) “Since 2005, ICE and its local law enforcement partners have arrested more than 30,000 gang members, leaders and associates. Violent gang members arrive from all over the globe, but ICE arrest data reflect that the most prolifically violent gangs that are the highest priority for enforcement have significant numbers of members from Central America and Mexico. These hardened, professional criminal organizations are not merely operating on the border. “CIS has found that ICE arrest data shows that such gangs are not confined to traditional immigrant gateway communities, but have sprouted all over the country, in urban, suburban and rural areas.”

According to I.C.E. official statistics, In FY 2014:

  • ICE conducted 315,943 removals.
  • ICE conducted 102,224 removals of individuals apprehended in the interior of the United States.

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  • 86,923 (85 percent) of all interior removals involved individuals previously convicted of a crime.
  • ICE conducted 213,719 removals of individuals apprehended while attempting to unlawfully enter the United States.
  • 56 percent of all ICE removals, or 177,960, involved individuals who were previously convicted of a crime.
  • ICE apprehended and removed 86,923 criminals from the interior of the U.S.
  • ICE removed 91,037 criminals apprehended while attempting to unlawfully enter the United States.
  • 98 percent of all ICE FY 2014 removals, or 309,477, clearly met one or more of ICE’s stated civil immigration enforcement priorities.
  • Of the 137,983 individuals removed who had no criminal conviction, 89 percent, or 122,682, were apprehended at or near the border while attempting to unlawfully enter the country.
  • The leading countries of origin for removals were Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.

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NATO’s new and expanded challenges

In previous decades, matters affecting American national security were headline news, widely reported in the media. That has not been the case recently.One key aspect of U.S. defense planning is, of course, NATO participation.  The following is excerpted from a recent summary of NATO challenges provided in a speech by  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the opening of the recent NATO Transformation Seminar.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea, its aggressive actions in Ukraine and the rise of violent extremism in North Africa and in the Middle East have really changed our security environment dramatically.

So we have to face the facts.  These challenges will not go away any time soon.  So we have to be prepared for the unexpected and stand ready to sustain our efforts for the years to come.

And as you know, NATO is used to the long haul.  And one of our greatest strengths is our ability to adapt.  For 40 years, during the Cold War, the challenge was clear and largely predictable. NATO deterred attacks and kept our nations safe without firing a shot.

Then for the next 25 years, we went out of area.  Together with our partners we went into combat beyond our borders to manage crises that could threaten us at home. This was a paradigm shift for NATO.

And now … we see another major shift in the security landscape, NATO is once again making fundamental changes.  Today, we do not have the luxury to choose between collective defence and crisis management. For the first time in NATO’s history we have to do both at the same time.

The Alliance has already done a great deal to respond to this new more volatile environment…

We are implementing the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence since the end of the Cold War.  We are increasing NATO’s presence in our Eastern Allied countries and the readiness of our forces.

The NATO Response Force will more than double to up to 30,000 troops.  Its centrepiece is the Spearhead Force of 5,000 troops with lead elements ready to move within as little as 48 hours.

At the same time, we are setting up command units in six of our Eastern Allies.  And this is only the beginning of a great and important adaptation of NATO.  And as we prepare for the Warsaw Summit next year, we need to address many of the different elements in the great adaptation of NATO.

And let me today raise three of the issues we have to face as we move towards Warsaw.  First, how to deal with hybrid warfare?  Hybrid is the dark reflection of our comprehensive approach.  We use a combination of military and non-military means to stabilize countries.  Others use it to destabilize them.

Of course, hybrid warfare is nothing new.  It is as old as the Trojan horse.  What is different is that the scale is bigger; the speed and intensity is higher; and that it takes place right at our borders.

Russia has used proxy soldiers, unmarked Special Forces, intimidation and propaganda, all to lay a thick fog of confusion; to obscure its true purpose in Ukraine; and to attempt deniability.  So NATO must be ready to deal with every aspect of this new reality from wherever it comes. And that means we must look closely at how we prepare for; deter; and if necessary defend against hybrid warfare.

To be prepared, we must be able to see and analyse correctly what is happening; to see the patterns behind events which appear isolated and random; and quickly identify who is behind and why.

So therefore, we need to sharpen our early warning and improve our situation awareness.  This is about intelligence, expert knowledge and analytical capacity.  So we know when an attack is an attack.

Hybrid warfare seeks to exploit any weakness.  So scientists who are well-governed and well-integrated are more resilient and less vulnerable.  So good governance is an essential part of defence.

And this is why we need a comprehensive approach, working together with the European Union and other international partners.  We also must deter hybrid threats.

Hybrid warfare is a probe, a test of our resolve to resist and to defend ourselves.  And it can be a prelude to a more serious attack; because behind every hybrid strategy, there are conventional forces, increasing the pressure and ready to exploit any opening.  We need to demonstrate that we can and will act promptly whenever and wherever necessary.
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The NATO Response Force provides us with a range of options from large-scale military actions to … special forces.  It sends a clear signal that if any Ally comes under attack, the entire Alliance will respond swiftly.  Then if deterrence should fail, we must be prepared to act and to defend our Allies.

In a crisis, the first responder will be the nation that is targeted.  But NATO must be there to support any national efforts. This is a matter of planning and of political will; and making sure that we complement and reinforce each other.  We need to be able to deal with complex evolving hybrid situations, including cyber-aggression.

Cyber is now a central part of virtually all crises and conflicts.  NATO has made it clear that cyber-attacks can potentially trigger an Article 5 response.  We need to detect and counter cyber-attacks early; improve our resilience; and be able to recover quickly.

A more active cyber policy should be a focus as we plan for Warsaw.  Cyber defence is just one of the capabilities we need in order to deal with the changed security environment… which brings me to my second point: how do we keep our edge?

While we have been cutting our defence budgets, others have invested heavily.  Since 1990, there has been a steady decline in our defence expenditures.  For some time, that was possible to explain by the end of the Cold War and less tensions. But during the last years, with increased threats, we have continued to decrease defence spending, especially among the European NATO Allies.

And while we have reduced our defence spending, others have increased.  Russia is investing in new tanks, new aircraft and new ships, new submarines and long-range cruise missiles.  China is testing its first carrier battle group; building a second.  And it has just announced a further 10% increase in its defence budget.

We have to face the fact that we no longer have a monopoly on advanced technology within the Alliance.  In Europe, few major programmes in cutting-edge capabilities are being launched, potentially degrading our long-term capabilities and our research and development base.

And with lower demand, more and more companies are shifting away from defence.  We risk losing the skills and the research capacity we should need in a crisis.

What we need now is the political will and the resources from nations to improve our capabilities; to keep our edge now and in the future.  The Alliance needs an innovation strategy for the coming decades.

NATO can make a real difference by connecting national capabilities, making our Alliance greater than the sum of its parts.  But NATO cannot substitute for a lack of national investments.  And that is why NATO leaders last year recognized that we need to invest more in our defence.  It is vital that we achieve this.

Of course, it is important that we spend smarter.  But we cannot get more from less indefinitely.  Even if we have all the capabilities we need, military force can only be as effective as the political decisions that are directed.

And that leads me to my third point, how do we improve decision-making?  As an Alliance of democracies, our greatest strength is our democratic legitimacy.  Of course, there are often differences and different opinions when you bring together 28 different democratic nations. And I have to admit that building consensus is not always easy.  And it takes times.

But once it’s done, it sends a very power signal:  28 Allies acting as one. The issues we are facing are complex and fast-moving.  Cyber-attacks happen in seconds.  Missiles reach their targets in minutes.  Little green men can move within hours.  So we must also be able to move fast.

While political control and oversight is essential, it is crucial that we reconcile oversight with speed.  We have done it before. And we should be able to do it also in the future.

We need to develop a common understanding of events and our potential adversaries.  This will provide us with the basis to effectively identify, anticipate, plan and react in a crisis.  The military and the political sides of NATO need to act seamlessly…

[T]here has been a fundamental shift in the level and the nature of the threats we face.  That is why, once again, NATO has to adapt to meet new challenges.

 

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The under-reported desperation of the American economy

Despite government reports that desperately attempt to put a positive spin on the latest figures and the low-key coverage of a largely partisan media, the United States economy is in terrible health. The Federal Reserve gimmick of keeping interest rates artificially low cannot hide this reality.

An objective reading of essential indicators is distressing:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter has fluctuated between a horrible 0.1% and an even worse 0%.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s  latest balance of trade figure reports a record high trade deficit in February of $35.4 billion.

Bloomberg News reports that the “Institute for Supply Management ‘s Index declined to 51.5, the weakest since May 2013…the gauge has fallen five straight months.”

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that the number of those 16 years of age and older who didn’t participate in the labor market increased to an all-time high of 93,175,000 in March, and the number of long term unemployed accounted for 29.8% of the unemployed.

The standard White House response to poor—in this case terrible—economic news has been to point to the impact of the last recession.  Unfortunately, however, many of the downturns over the tenure of the current Administration have come from figures that had at least slightly improved since then, meaning that these troubling numbers are the results of its own mismanagement of the economy.

That mismanagement promises to provide future harmful effects as well. As outlined in the Daily Signal,  the federal debt has been hiked by 70% since the President took office, to a record $18 trillion-plus, with another $486 billion added in the past fiscal year despite record increases in revenue.

All of that record-setting deficit spending under the current White House produced  no gains for the U.S. economy, and provided no substantial assistance to the aging national infrastructure.  American national security has been weakened due to cuts in defense spending, and business start-ups continue to fall behind the number of business failures. The Brookings Institute found that business start-ups have reached a 30 year low.

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Worrisome Deficiencies in Iran “Deal”

The U.S. State Department has released the “Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program.” This is not actually a deal. It is the basis of a deal that is supposed to be concluded by June 30, three months from now.  That time frame must be kept in mind, since it is precisely the time Iran needs to have sufficient fissile material for the development of a nuclear weapon.

Beyond the next several months, other time frames are worrisome.  Iran’s agreement to suspend operations for the majority of its centrifuges is only for ten years, and its agreement not to enrich uranium up to weapons grade lasts for 15 years. Also of concern is the nation’s past record of deceit on abiding by agreements, as well as its ongoing development of intercontinental missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

The agreement does not conform to President Obama’s prior goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability.  A remaining question: Since Iran is rich in oil, which is currently more available and less expensive than nuclear power for that nation, why is it continuing to pursue nuclear technology at all?

The U.S. State Department provided the attached summary of the agreement:

Enrichment

  • Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.
  • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.
  • Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.
  • All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.
  • Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.
  • Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.

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Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium

  • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years.
  • Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center.
  • Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years.
  • Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years.
  • Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.

Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.

  • Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
  • Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
  • Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.
  • For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.

Inspections and Transparency

  • The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.
  • Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.
  • Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
  • Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance.
  • All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
  • A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure.
  • Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
  • Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country.
  • Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities.
  • Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.

Reactors and Reprocessing

  • Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
  • The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
  • Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
  • Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
  • Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
  • Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.

Sanctions

  • Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
  • S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
  • The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
  • All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
  • However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
  • A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
  • If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
  • S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.

Phasing

  • For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
  • For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
  • Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
  • Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.

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Reclaiming America’s Educational System

Increasingly, the American educational system seems to reject the values that made the United States, and indeed western civilization, successful.  There are numerous educators and educational bureaucrats at all levels who cringe even at the thought of alluding to the unparalleled advances in freedom, government, science, philosophy, the arts, and so much more that characterize the American experience. The latest example of the bizarre influence imposed by university professors on students can be seen in the recent move to exclude American flags at campus events.

It is truly ironic that the same educators that call the loudest for multiculturalism display an extraordinary bias against western civilization, the culture that, more than any other, has displayed tolerance, acceptance, and respect for others. That includes the most important of western traits, the concept of individual liberty, and the equality of all.

In his new book, “Inventing the Individual,” author Larry Siedentop  notes: “Like other cultures, Western culture is founded on shared beliefs.  But in contrast to most others, Western beliefs privilege the idea of equality.  And it is the privileging of equality—of a premise that excludes permanent inequalities of status and ascription of authoritative opinion to any person or group—which underpins the secular state and the idea of fundamental or “natural” rights.”

The U.S. concept of equality does not suggest that all people are the same; each person possesses individual talents, strengths and weaknesses. It does not call for equal outcomes. Those who struggle harder, have talents in demand, or are merely fortunate will always disproportionately prosper. It does refer to the belief that all have the same rights under the law, and that, in the words of the Declaration of Independence, there are “Unalienable right” that can never be denied or reduced.

Individual liberty is an annoying challenge to higher education personnel, who by an overwhelming percentage prefer the collectivist mentality that characterizes socialist regimes. While castigating the wealth created by the free market system they despise, university officials unblushingly hike their tuition rates year after year, making college education a nearly life-long financial burden. Now there are calls for the taxpayers to pay these substantial debts, allowing the same hypocritical university bureaucrats to raise tuition even higher.

Writing in the Chronicle of Higher Education, Sita Slavov writes:

“The liberal bias in academe is pervasive and well documented. For example, Daniel Klein has shown that Democrats outnumber Republicans by at least seven to one in the social sciences and humanities. Stanley Rothman, Robert S. Lichter, and Neil Nevitte have shown that 72 percent of higher-education faculty identify themselves as liberal. Some liberal academics even admit that they would discriminate against conservatives in hiring and peer review…”
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The defection of educators from core American values is neither a tempest in a teapot nor an arcane philosophical debate. An entire generation or more of students is in the process of being alienated from the very culture from which they came.

Americans gasp in astonishment at news reports of young people from middle and upper income families from the U.S. and Europe who run away from home to join ISIS and other despotic movements.  They shouldn’t be so surprised.  Increasingly, from the lowest grammar school grades to the highest levels of graduate schools, students are spoon-fed a steady diet of anti-western propaganda, both from school and Hollywood.  George Washington, who was instrumental in founding a nation built on the concept of freedom, is just an old dead white guy. Che’ Guevara, a murderous thug who helped bring Soviet nukes to Cuba, is a ubiquitous symbol of “cool.”

Those that dissent from the leftist hierarchy are penalized or ghettoized into so-called “free speech zones” designed to prevent the spread of ideas to others.

American constitutional government based on individual rights, that most successful of ideas and institutions, can wither away within a single generation at home. The global consequences will be dire. Without U.S. support, be it military, cultural, economic or otherwise, other western-style governments will not survive. Other governance schemes across the globe—theocratic extremism in the Islamic world, thinly veiled dictatorship in Russia, Communism in China and North Korea, and the numerous bankrupt socialist, strong-man, or ethnocentric regimes elsewhere offer no palatable alternative.

Clearly, it is time that Americans reclaim their educational system.

 

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A World in Chaos

In the short span of the Obama Administration, there has been a vast alteration not only in the international order that was established following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in the environment that occurred after the end of World War 2. The President’s foreign policy is, essentially, a reversion to the isolationist  concept that followed the First World War. That, of course, did not work out well, as it allowed for the rise of expansionist powers in Germany, Japan, Italy and Russia.

History is, indeed, repeating itself. Russia has invaded Ukraine, and clearly has further designs on other European nations. China has made specious claims on the territory of its neighbors, and has developed a military capable of carrying out its goals. Iran has taken steps to establish hegemony in the Middle East.  Arguably, the global situation as it relates to the United States is considerably worse than that preceding the Second World War, since Russia, China, and Iran have taken steps to establish a military presence in the western hemisphere.

It can be argued that those aggressor nations believed that the combination of substantially diminished American and other western militaries, combined with a White House that clearly sought to disengage from international affairs, provided an opportunity for them to act on their expansionist goals.

The chaotic state of affairs has been noticed even by those observers not generally considered hawkish on international or military concerns.

A clear example comes from Foreign Policy at Brookings.  The organization is commencing what it describes as “a broad research project—‘Order from Chaos’ to understand the challenges to the international order and to develop strategies to deal with them.”

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“This intensification of geopolitics has been accompanied by a return to competition between democracies and autocracies. China’s rise and Russia’s recovery (at least until recently) have generated a new model of “authoritarian capitalism” at a time when the global financial crisis put a dent in the credibility of the Western economic model and the disappointments and consequences of the “Arab Spring” have led many to question the value of promoting liberal democracy. Transnational and global threats also pose deepening challenges to the United States, though also to its geopolitical competitors. Climate change, pandemic disease, and radical Islamic extremism pose shared threats, though as yet common solutions have largely eluded the powers. The digital revolution holds out the promise of a leveled playing field and increased productivity, but its disruptive impact will be felt in every corner of the globe.

“All told, we appear to be at one of history’s pivotal junctures, and again, the response of the United States will be critical. For all the talk of America’s relative decline, the United States retains more capacity than any other power to impact the calculations and policies of others. But America’s competitors are too powerful and their visions too different to imagine that U.S. leadership alone is a sufficient ingredient to maintain the liberal, rules-based international order that now feels so threatened by rising chaos.

“In short, the task is urgent and complicated: how to reinvent the liberal international order in the face of so many centrifugal forces so that it can provide greater stability, peace, prosperity, and freedom; and how to do it in ways that encourage cooperation from other world powers, reduce friction generated by competition with them, and, if necessary, contain or constrain their ability to undermine the order.”

 

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Freedom House Survey: Worldwide Freedom Retreats

Freedom House produces non-partisan and authoritative assessments  of freedom throughout the world.

This year’s edition is notable for its lack of good news. We have excerpted a few brief salient portions of the current report. The full work can be read at the organization’s web site. 

“In a year marked by an explosion of terrorist violence, autocrats’ use of more brutal tactics, and Russia’s invasion and annexation of a neighboring country’s territory, the state of freedom in 2014 worsened significantly in nearly every part of the world.

“For the ninth consecutive year, Freedom in the World, Freedom House’s annual report on the condition of global political rights and civil liberties, showed an overall decline. Indeed, acceptance of democracy as the world’s dominant form of government—and of an international system built on democratic ideals—is under greater threat than at any point in the last 25 years.

“Even after such a long period of mounting pressure on democracy, developments in 2014 were exceptionally grim. The report’s findings show that nearly twice as many countries suffered declines as registered gains, 61 to 33, with the number of gains hitting its lowest point since the nine-year erosion began.

“This pattern held true across geographical regions, with more declines than gains in the Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the Americas, and an even split in Asia-Pacific. Syria, a dictatorship mired in civil war and ethnic division and facing uncontrolled terrorism, received the lowest Freedom in the World country score in over a decade.

“The lack of democratic gains around the world was conspicuous. The one notable exception was Tunisia, which became the first Arab country to achieve the status of Free since Lebanon was gripped by civil war 40 years ago.

“By contrast, a troubling number of large, economically powerful, or regionally influential countries moved backward: Russia, Venezuela, Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Nigeria, Kenya, and Azerbaijan. Hungary, a European Union member state, also saw a sharp slide in its democratic standards as part of a process that began in 2010.

  • Of the 195 countries assessed, 89 (46 percent) were rated Free, 55 (28 percent) Partly Free, and 51 (26 percent) Not Free. All but one region had more countries with declines than with gains. Asia-Pacific had an even split.
  • In a new and disquieting development, a number of countries lost ground due to state surveillance, restrictions on internet communications, and curbs on personal autonomy.
  • Ratings for the Middle East and North Africa region were the worst in the world, followed by Eurasia. Syria, a dictatorship mired in civil war and ethnic division and facing uncontrolled terrorism, received the lowest Freedom in the World score of any country in over a decade.
  • The Worst of the Worst countries are the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
  • In China, President Xi Jinping continued to centralize authority and maintain hands-on involvement in policy areas ranging from domestic security to internet management to ethnic relations, emerging as the most powerful Chinese Communist Party leader since Deng Xiaoping. He continued to bolster China’s sweeping maritime territorial claims with armed force and personnel, and while his aggressive anticorruption campaign reached the highest echelons of the party, culminating in the arrest of former security czar Zhou Yongkang, it remained selective and ignored the principles of due process. Moreover, the campaign has been compromised by an intensified crackdown on grassroots anticorruption activists and other elements of civil society, including a series of politically motivated convictions. The government also intensified its persecution of the Uighur community, imposing layers of restriction on Uighurs’ ability to observe their Muslim faith and sentencing activists and journalists to long prison terms…China’s government responded to public discontent with campaigns reminiscent of the Mao era, including televised confessions that have gained prominence under Xi Jinping. The Chinese authorities are also resorting to criminal and administrative detention to restrict activists instead of softer tactics like house arrest or informal interrogations. Both China and Russia have made use of one of the Cold War’s most chilling instruments, the placement of dissidents in psychiatric hospitals.
  • Over the past year… there were signs that authoritarian regimes were beginning to abandon the quasi-democratic camouflage that allowed them to survive and prosper in the post–Cold War world. Again, the most blatant example is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, whose official justifications included ethnic nationalist, irredentist claims and which quickly drew comparisons to the land grabs of Hitler or Stalin. The move exposed Moscow as a committed enemy of European peace and democratization rather than a would-be strategic partner. Faced with international pressure and the rising potential for domestic discontent, the government expanded its control of the media, stepped up a propaganda campaign to justify its actions and vilify its opponents, and cracked down on independent news outlets, particularly online. Journalists, politicians, and family members who sought to investigate the deaths of Russian servicemen in Ukraine encountered bureaucratic obstruction and trumped-up criminal charges. Regional elections in September were tightly controlled from above, with any coherent opposition eliminated. By the end of the year, Russia’s government was increasingly isolated from the international community and struggling to neutralize anticorruption activists and other domestic critics.

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“While the dramatic gains of the late 20th century have not been reversed, the institutions meant to ensure fair elections, a combative press, checks on state power, and probity in government and commerce are showing wear and tear in the new democracies of Central Europe, Latin America, and Asia. In the Middle East, the potential of the Arab Spring has given way to the chaos and carnage that prevail in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen, and to a ruthless dictatorship in Egypt. In Africa, the promise of freedom survives, but the dominant trend is one of corruption, internal conflict, terrorism, and ugly campaigns against gay people. Even in the United States, the year’s headlines featured racial strife, a renewed argument over counter-terrorism tactics, and political gridlock.

“There are, some say, few compelling advertisements today for the benefits of democratic government, and few signs that the retreat of open political systems can be reversed. However, several major events during 2014 suggest that this gloomy assessment is off the mark.

“In Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of people rose up to defy a kleptocratic leadership that offered the country a political and economic dead end. Given the choice between a future course patterned on Russian authoritarianism and a path toward Europe and its democratic standards, a clear majority did not hesitate in choosing the option of freedom, even with its uncertainties. The Kremlin has imposed a terrible punishment for this choice, but so far Ukrainians have not wavered in their defiance.

“ In Hong Kong, the student-led Umbrella Movement emerged after the Communist leadership in Beijing announced that contrary to previous commitments and public expectations, elections for chief executive would require candidates to be nominated by a pro-Beijing committee, making universal suffrage a hollow exercise. The controversy epitomized both Beijing’s refusal to countenance the basic tenets of democracy and the ultimate weakness of its legitimacy among the public. It also stood as a powerful reminder that while China’s model of state-driven growth combined with strict political control is attractive to elites in authoritarian settings (and to some in democracies as well), ordinary people, and especially the young, find China’s rejection of freedom profoundly unappealing. Notably, the people of Taiwan, through student protests and local election results during the year, strongly voiced their preference for a future in which popular sovereignty prevails.”