Month: October 2014

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Quick Analysis

AMERICAN DISINTEGRATION PART 2: DIPLOMACY

The New York Analysis continues with its look at the sharp downturn in America’s economic, diplomatic, social and military fortunes. Today’s review will examine the area of diplomacy. 

 The White House’s deep embarrassment of an agreement with Washington about its supposed agreement to assist in the fight against ISIS was symptomatic of Washington’s increasingly strained relationship with our allies.  Turkey is a NATO member.

Even the greatest of superpowers requires dependable allies.  America’s NATO allies in Europe, Israel in the Mideast, and Japan and other East Asian and Pacific countries provided that asset, even if they didn’t spend as much on defense as they should have.

Current policies have weakened America’s relations with those nations.  Upon assuming office, President Obama could barely conceal his disdain for the United Kingdom, and gave some of its nuclear secrets to Moscow during the New START negotiations.  He reneged on an anti-ballistic missile agreement with Poland. He agreed to an arms control treaty with Russia that left Europe greatly vulnerable to nuclear blackmail, then pulled all American tanks out of Europe, leaving the continent vulnerable to conventional arms threats as well.

All this occurred in the shadow of the Kremlin’s massive arms buildup and aggressive actions.

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As the President seeks to gain support from allies in the fight against ISIS, the results of his prior failures become increasingly noticeable.  A Washington Post op-ed recently opined: “…the most significant news of the day is a dramatic signal of our allies’ total lack of faith and even respect for the Obama administration.

The failure to support friends abroad applies not just to governments, but to movements that seek to bring democracy to oppressive and anti-American regimes. Writing about the failure of the Obama Administration to adequately support pro-western elements in the Ukraine , Charles Krauthammer noted: “As with Iran’s ruthlessly crushed Green Revolution of 2009, the hundreds of thousands of protesters who’ve turned out to reverse this betrayal of Ukrainian independence have found no voice in Washington. Can’t this administration even rhetorically support those seeking a democratic future, as we did during Ukraine’s Orange Revolution of 2004?”

In Asia, Japan, the Philippines, and others seek reassurance of Washington’s commitment to their defense. But when China’s navy sailed into the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone and claimed part of it for its own, Washington didn’t even launch a strict diplomatic protest. Ditto for Beijing’s aggressive actions against Japan.

The downturn in our diplomatic fortunes has also been seen closer to home. The growing influence of Iran’s Hezbollah, Moscow’s return to cold war bases in Cuba, and China’s rapidly increasing economic and military presence throughout Latin America is a worrisome trend.

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Quick Analysis

AMERICAN DISINTEGRATION

Economically, diplomatically, socially and militarily, America’s fortunes have declined precipitously during the past several years.

 Each of those four areas, of course, is individually worthy of an intensive, lengthy analysis, but it is the consistency of deeply disappointing results across a broad spectrum that should be examined. The common thread that runs throughout Washington’s approach to each area is the pursuit of immediate gratification policies that are politically attractive in the short term, but will cause extensive long term crises. Over the next several days, the New York Analysis of Policy & Government will briefly outline each topic, describing how—and why– the nation’s condition has deteriorated. Today’s issue is the national economy.

 The National Economy

 Lower household income, extremely low job participation rates, deficit federal spending, and minimal business start ups all point to an economy in deep trouble. These distressing trends, in most cases, can no longer be called a result of the 2007 recession.  They are caused by ruinous policy enacted since 2009.

According to Sentier Research, The July 2014 median household income of $54,045 was 2.9 percent lower than the median of $55,639 in June 2009.

America is hemorrhaging jobs, and new business start ups are at an unacceptably low level.  The reasons are neither mysterious nor unsolvable.  Washington continues to impose the highest corporate tax levels on the planet, as well as excessively high personal taxation. It is rapidly expanding a daunting regulatory regime that actively works against business formation and job creation. The evidence is clear and extensive. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Andy Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants, criticized the “feel good” goal of a 40% increase in minimum wage, advocated by many progressive politicians, which will result in a dramatic loss of jobs. America’s labor force participation rate is at its lowest rate since 1978.

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Some of the excess, including dramatically increasing spending on programs loosely termed welfare, can be seen as simple politics.  A large portion of the public supports these efforts. Other endeavors, such as staunchly advocating for a higher minimum wage, and the extraordinarily expensive Affordable Care Act legislation, while more controversial, still garner significant support and widespread adulation in the major media.  The long-term effects are drawbacks to employment growth and prosperity as a whole even as many individuals receive short-term benefits.

While ruinous in the long term, the reason these policies have been enacted is at least comprehensible from a populist political worldview.  But there are other areas which have no plausible explanation.

There is no justification for the incredible waste that took place in the stimulus program, in which over $700 billion was spent without any discernible accomplishment. The White House attempted to draw a comparison with FDR’s New Deal.  The comparison is inaccurate. New Deal programs produced buildings, parks, roads and dams. The stimulus developed nothing. It may well have been the greatest single wastage of funds in recorded history.

Despite an abundance of energy resources on federal lands that could make both corporate and individual lives far less costly, The White House chooses to intentionally keep them off the market while simultaneously working to eliminate current sources such as coal. Keeping energy prices high is a guaranteed way to hinder the economy.

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Quick Analysis

What Works, What Does Not

The prevailing attitude in Washington is that the many dire challenges facing America are so complex that the application of common sense solutions would be an exercise in futility.

A more objective review, however, indicates that it is not inherent complexity, but ideological bias and political gamesmanship that prevents the use of effective approaches to national problems, foreign and domestic. The inherent optimism and pragmatism in a people that carved humanity’s most prosperous, powerful and liberated society out of a remote wilderness is constantly repressed by bureaucrats, overpaid consultants, and smug academicians whose interests lay not in solving the issues at hand but in forwarding a poisonous combination of self-enrichment and the advancement of a philosophy of government that furthers their personal agendas.

In large part, the American success story is based on the concept that the individual, not the government, is sovereign, and the greatest judge of his own well-being.  Government intervention in daily life was conceptually and constitutionally limited to what was strictly necessary, primarily in areas covering defense or other emergencies, the establishment of a fair judicial system to end disputes and punish crime, and to promote the advance of this new civilization. Alexis de Tocqueville, who travelled to young America from France in 1831, marveled that “What most strikes the European who travels across the United States is the absence of what among us we call government or administration.”

But that doesn’t fit in with the agenda of those who, like former Obama advisor Rahm Emmanuel, believe that “You should never waste a good crisis.”  Rather than solve the problem, those that seek to enhance government and, hence, their personal power at the expense of the individual merely utilize the issues at hand to forward their program—to “progress” towards a system of governance that essentially rejects the idea of personal freedom.

The foundations that threaten the ever-accelerating drive to more powerful and centralized control—free speech, free enterprise, a knowledge of the patriotic and individualistic philosophy that in the past led to the success of the American nation—are repeatedly targeted, or merely ignored.

But what of foreign policy and defense, those areas that all agree, and common sense dictates, have always been and can only be the jurisdiction of the federal government? How did America descend from being the world’s sole superpower to being a nation that appears to be floundering?

Here, too, can be seen a rejection of the traditional approaches that led to success in the past. Since 1945, the U.S. shouldered the responsibility of leading a coalition of nations dedicated to not allowing the conditions that led to the Second World War to reoccur.  No nation was given the opportunity to believe that it could develop the environment to establish hegemony either globally or in any particular region.
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That concept has been whittled away.  For the first time, Russia has more deployable nuclear weapons than the United States, and has, particularly over the past year, developed a clear edge in conventional weapons on the European continent. China has developed naval, air, and missile forces that threaten the dwindled American navy in the Pacific. After a skillful and powerful use of force in two Persian Gulf conflicts, a clear policy shift away from the potential to reinsert ground troops when necessary has allowed virulently anti-western forces to rise to positions of extraordinary danger in the Middle East.

Closer to home, a rejection of the concept enforced since the onset of the Monroe Doctrine during the early days of U.S. history, that foreign forces not gain a foothold in the New World, has led to the establishment of a growing tide of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian military relationships with Latin American and Caribbean countries.

Most Democrats, and a small minority of Republicans such as Rand Paul, advocate sharply limiting American involvement abroad.  This is a repudiation of long-standing U.S. policy that has maintained that it is better to keep foreign threats abroad rather than await their arrival on U.S. shores. That concept has worked well.  No foreign army has successfully trod on an American state since the expulsion of British forces in the war of 1812.

A set of political beliefs that has enhanced personal freedom, including the ending of slavery and segregation, kept the nation free from enemy invasion, and created unmatched prosperity has been increasingly rejected by progressive politicians and academicians. The opposition to those forces of rejection of traditional and successful policies have been hampered by consultants who advise not rocking the boat.

A salient question largely ignored by the media when discussing progressive politics is, what, precisely, are progressives progressing towards?  Globally, their dreams of increased centralization have failed to produce prosperity wherever they have been tried, and have had the toxic side effect of limiting individual liberty.  Even in advanced European democracies, the financial constraints caused by progressive concepts have resulted in the necessity of draining funds away from defense to at least temporarily sustaining the affected nations as they continue down their downward spiral.

Why do so many in the United States advocate following this destructive path?

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Announcements

Dick Morris, Alan Dershowitz on the Vernuccio/Allison Report

Former Presidential adviser Dick Morris and legal scholar Alan Dershowitz are the Elderly men needs proper prescription as they are the most important tadalafil pharmacy “assets” you have. Also, you are cautioned to beware of products whose origin or ingredients are viagra canada sales unreliable. This habit appalachianmagazine.com cialis for sale canada of alcohol can some times lead to rapid climax. This drop can result in minor 5mg cialis tablets conditions such as erectile dysfunction. distinguished guests on this week’s edition of the Vernuccio/Allison Report.

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NY Analysis

Dangerous Omissions: Issues Not Considered

With elections just weeks away, it is disturbing that the discussions and analysis in political debates and media coverage all too often ignore key issues. The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has compiled a list of the most important realities, issues and points that voters should consider, but that don’t get mentioned by most candidates and the media.

  1. National Security:

Mexico is a failed state usable by terrorists and foreign powers to infiltrate the US.

Several Latin American states have made seriously dangerous deals with Russia, Iran, and China aimed at harming America.

The extraordinary haste and scope of Russia & China’s military buildup can only be explained as a prelude to aggression.

Muslim claims that the Crusades were acts of imperialism on the part of Europe are historically inaccurate. In fact, pretty much since the birth of the Islamic religion, it was Muslims that had invaded and occupied European territory.

For over a hundred years, the greatest force for good in the world has been the United States military.

The United States did not defeat Saddam Hussein for access to cheap oil. He attacked his neighbors and sought to dominate his entire region. America didn’t profit from this venture. The Gulf Wars should have been praised for the humanitarian venture that they were. And, by the way, it has now been proven that Saddam Hussein did have weapons of mass destruction.

America’s premature withdrawal from Iraq allowed the conditions to arise for ISIS to take over. It was a strategic error and the same mistake is being made in Afghanistan.

Nations ruled by psychopathic regimes shouldn’t be allowed to have weapons of mass destruction.

Being militarily weaker than China or Russia won’t ease world tensions, it will only encourage further aggression on their part.

Our NATO allies should contribute more to the defense of the free world, but the reality is they are not large enough to make a huge difference. America remains indispensable.

  1. International Relations

International treaties may not take precedence over American law. This is especially true for guarantees provided in the Bill of Rights.

Letting people into the country without being checked for health problems is extremely dangerous.

A nation has the right to adjust its immigration policies in a way that benefits its own citizenry. Allowing individuals into the country from regions that are besieged by diseases or that train their people to hate western culture is insanity.

The United States cannot afford to be the welfare agency for the entire planet.

Global warming is far from being settled science. In fact, many of the studies indicating this trend have been rigged.

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The US has among the highest corporate taxes in the world, and some of the planet’s most onerous regulations. Improve that situation and so many companies won’t look to move overseas, and more jobs will be available.

Israel is the only true democracy in the Middle East and the only regional nation that shares our values; it is also one of the few that does not believe the US is an evil society that should be destroyed. Washington should not pressure it to sign onto deals that endanger it.

  1. Domestic Issues

The expansion of welfare programs at the rate that has occurred over the past several years is unaffordable.

Most poverty programs do not pull people out of poverty. They do benefit the bureaucrats who run them, however.

Progressives fail to explain precisely what it is they are progressing towards, they just deliver platitudes. They do this because the implementation of their ideas absolutely requires dictatorial government.

Socialism has been an economic failure just about everywhere it has been tried.

Companies won’t increase employment if they are increasingly besieged by new regulations.

Slavery ended in 1865. Officially sanctioned segregation ended in the 1960s, and affirmative action programs have been in existence since then. Those who continue to complain of racial bias are not being truthful and are doing so for personal or political gain.

Many election regulations on the federal, state and local levels are specifically rigged to help incumbents stay in office and keep party bosses in power.

Voter ID laws do not discriminate or discourage minority voting.

Those who disagree with a precise following of the Constitution should state what they would replace it with.

The U.S. Constitution does NOT prohibit expressions of religion in public spaces. It does prohibit giving one faith more privileges than another.

Colleges that establish “free speech zones” and limit open discourse to those isolated spots defy every decent academic principle of encouraging independent thinking. Universities are supposed to teach, not indoctrinate.

The government has no business telling you what to eat or serve to your children.

When it comes to contagious diseases, it is better to err on the side of caution, not political correctness.

These are the issues that voters should concentrate on.

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Quick Analysis

Can the Army Save the Navy?

Can the U.S. Army help perform the task that the U.S. Navy has become too small to accomplish?

Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Va.) has examined a Rand Corporation  study which indicates that ground-based missiles under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Army could help deter Beijing’s rapidly growing maritime prowess. In addition to developing a blue-water navy, China has produced powerful anti-ship missile technology which imperils the remnants of the once-powerful American Pacific fleet, now reduced to its smallest size since World War One.

According to the study, “Over the past several years, some strategists have argued that China is shifting the balance of power in the Western Pacific in its favor, in large part by fielding anti-access weapons that could threaten U.S. and allied access to vital areas of interest. Others have argued that such innovations have lowered the costs of anti-access capabilities such that regional actors can contest ‘America’s 60-year-old dominance over the global commons and its ability to maintain their openness.”

The study describes two key advantages to land-based deterrence:

  • If China takes steps to limit a U.S.-led coalition’s freedom of movement in the Western Pacific, the United States and its allies must be able to counter this strategy by limiting Chinese naval freedom of movement. The strategic placement of anti-ship missile systems (ASMs) has the potential to ensure the success of such an operation.
  • Ground-based ASMs are mobile and relatively easy to conceal. They could also have a range of uses, from serving as a deterrent to Chinese power projection to enabling blockades of critical waterways.

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With the U.S. Navy far below the strength required to secure the safety of the Pacific and with the White House intent on reducing defense costs, land based anti-ship missiles could provide some measure of deterrence against Beijing’s growing aggressiveness.

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Quick Analysis

Will foreign aid help or harm the Palestinians?

Secretary of State John Kerry has announced  $212 million in immediate assistance to the Palestinian people imperiled by the recent fighting in Gaza.  Those funds, combined with dollars previously committed in 2014, add up to over $400 million this year alone.

All those taxpayer monies may not bring peace and stability to the region, or a true mitigation of the suffering of the Palestinian people who have been victimized not by war or Israel, but by the corruption and brutality of corrupt forces within their own ranks.

It is instructive to look at the aid given to North Korea. According to the Congressional Research Service, (CRS)  between 1995 and 2008, the United States provided North Korea with over $1.3 billion in assistance: slightly more than 50% for food aid and about 40% for energy assistance. The problem was not solved. According to CRS,

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In the areas populated by Palestinians, the influence of Hamas will diminish the value and effectiveness of any foreign assistance. Its charter goal is not the safety and prosperity of the Palestinian people; it is the destruction of Israel. Historically, international assistance funds directed towards the Palestinian people have been diverted to inappropriate purposes. Former PLO leader Yasser Arafat stole well over a billion dollars despite the dire needs of his people.

In the Palestinian territories, as well as in North Korea, the provision of foreign assistance without direct control of the use of those funds serves more to keep illegitimate interests in power than in helping the people.

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Quick Analysis

Campaign vs. the Pledge of Allegiance

A militantly atheist organization has started an advertising campaign asking the public to refuse to say the Pledge of Allegiance.   The American Humanist Association, which appears to be well funded, objects to the phrase “Under God” in the pledge.  Oddly enough, it doesn’t advocate those who disagree with the phrase to simply not say those two words, it advises a refusal to say the entire pledge.

Among the other actions of the group are a drive to not celebrate Columbus Day, opposition to the distribution of bibles in the military, and the removal of any religious symbolism or words from public documents, buildings or activities.

Since none of the acts the Association objects to are mandatory, and since students and others already have the right to either refuse to say the pledge or to omit the phrase “Under God,” the anti-pledge campaign seems superfluous.  As the organization itself notes, the Supreme Court case of West Virginia vs. Barnette  already confirmed that right. The same can be said for most of the other activities that have been advocate by militant atheists.

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Since the First Amendment forbids the establishment of a particular religion, but does not forbid any religious expression at all, the legal points presented by atheist extremists tend to be on shaky constitutional grounds.

Upon analysis, atheist objections appear to have a different agenda than mere opposition to religion. Indeed, a closer examination of their intentions indications a drive to establish a formal state philosophy of atheism, a violation of the First Amendment.

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Quick Analysis

U.S. Drops in Freedom Rankings

The United States has dropped in the ratings of economically free nations, losing a half point since last year’s survey.

According to a Wall Street Journal/Heritage Foundation survey, America lost ground due to deterioration in property rights, fiscal freedom, and business freedom. The U.S. doesn’t  even score as the top nation in North America—that rank went to Canada.

Overall, America comes in at a dismal 12th place, behind Hong Kong (although that may soon change due to Beijing’s increased involvement in political affairs), Singapore, Australia, Switzerland, New Zealand, Canada, Chile, Mauritius, Ireland, Denmark, and Estonia. According to the survey the United States has experienced a dramatic decline since 2006. The principle reasons for the drop are diminished property rights, increased corruption, and higher government spending. The authors note that America is “The only country to have recorded a loss of economic freedom each of the past seven years.  The overall U.S. score decline from 1995 to 2014 is 1.2 points, the fourth worst drop among advanced economies.”
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In terms of economic performance, the survey notes that “Substantial expansion in the size and scope of government, along with new and costly regulations in areas like finance and health care, has contributed significantly to the erosion of U.S. freedom.  The growth of government has been accompanied by increasing cronyism that has undermined the rule of law and perception of fairness.”

A particular burden that is worrisome is not just the high rates of taxation, but the increasingly vast array of regulations and the cost of compliance with them.  Since 2009, more than 130 new regulations have been imposed, imposing an additional $60 billion  expense.

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Quick Analysis

Defenseless

Poland last week announced that it would develop its own missile defense system, in the wake of America’s failure to move ahead with its own system.

The world continues to nervously wait for the next Iranian advance in nuclear weaponry, and new North Korean missile tests. Defense officials worry about the possibility of terrorists obtaining an atomic bomb.

Despite these valid and significant concerns, the Obama Administration remains reluctant to fully fund an adequate missile defense shield for both the American homeland and our allies. Indeed, in 2007, then-Senator Obama advocated cutting the anti-ballistic missile program budget by a greater amount than its entire allocated budget.

The growing international sophistication in missile technology is represented by the endeavors of Iran, which will launch three domestically made satellites next Spring.  The technology to accomplish this is essentially the same as that necessary to develop ICBMS.  Tehran’s Shabab 3 military missile has a range of almost 2,000 miles, and can strike American allies in the Middle East and Europe.

China continues to accelerate its potent nuclear weapons technology. It recently tested its DF-31A and CSS-4 ICBMs Beijing also has an extensive series of tunnels ideal for masking and protecting its nuclear weaponry.

And, of course, there is Russia.For the first time since the atomic age began, Moscow now has more deployed nuclear weapons than the United States. Indeed, in the realm of tactical nuclear weapons, Moscow has a ten-to-one advantage. In November, The Interpreter publication  analyzed Moscow’s intent to maintain the world’s preeminent nuclear force.

“…nuclear weapons have become the key element of ensuring Russia’s national security and presence in international relations. At the expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry on December 10, Putin detailed the efforts at ‘modernizatsiia’, mentioning that Russia is set to receive 40 advanced and upgraded ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile). This follows a meeting with the leaders of Russia’s strategic missile forces at the end of [October 2013], where plans detailing the deployment of 22 silo based and 18 mobile RS-24 Yars-M ICBMs were discussed. Russia is also conducting snap readiness checks alongside the introduction of new ICBMs.”
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In 2011, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen  discussed NATO’s needs for missile defense.

“As we sit here discussing missile defense, some people elsewhere are discussing missile attack.  Over 30 states already have, or are developing, missile technology. These missiles can be fitted with conventional technology, or with weapons of mass destruction.  Some of them can already reach parts of NATO territory.  Others can threaten NATO interests.  And all the time, technology is advancing.  Ranges are increasing. Accuracy and payloads are increasing.  And the number of countries with proven capability is increasing. We cannot ignore these trends.  We cannot afford to have even one of our cities hit.  We cannot take the risk of doing nothing.  Missile threats are real. And our defense must be real…At the same time, this will demonstrate that we will not be coerced or intimidated by proliferation programmes.  This is why NATO needs missile defense.  It is why we agreed that missile defence is a core element of our collective defence.  And it is why we have decided to develop a missile defence capability to protect NATO European populations, territory, and forces.”

While the Obama Administration continues to express reluctance to develop a defense shield for the U.S., Moscow has never expressed a similar reluctance.  The White House’s priorities is perhaps best exemplified by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel’s  March 15 statement about conducting environmental impact studies for a potential ground based interceptor site within the U.S.  The Obama Administration decided in 2009 that the missile threat from countries like North Korea wasn’t significant, and mothballed 14 of the 44 antiballistic missile interceptors. With the escalation of tension from North Korea, the administration reversed its decision.  The course correction cost approximately $200 million.

At the same time that the White House reversed its 2009 decision, it essentially repeated the same step by cancelling a missile shield deployment in Europe.  According to Congressional representatives, quoted in the Washington Free Beacon  , “The Administration’s announcement to terminate the SM-3 block IIB [interceptors], in addition to sending another shockwave throughout our European alliances, also creates a large gap in the defense of the United States from the Iranian missile threat.” Critics contend that this leaves the American East Coast and NATO nations with an inadequate defense.

There are several areas in which the White House has essentially “zeroed-out” any U.S. ABM activity.  Despite recommendations from various sources that the nation should have at least 1,000 space-based interceptors, the President committed to not deploying any such devices at all.

The White House funding request for $7.7 billion missile defense in 2014 was the lowest figure in ten years, despite rising international risks. The FY 2015 request will be even lower. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is requesting $7.459 billion in FY 2015.