Month: June 2014

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Quick Analysis

China’s aggressiveness increases as U.S. sea power fades

China recently expressed anger that the U.S. and Japan coordinated their remarks regarding Beijing’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.  That displeasure is highly indicative of China’s growing belief that it has achieved a position of military hegemony in the region.

Japan and the America have been allies for over half a century.  During the time period, an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity had taken hold.

Unfortunately, Washington has not acted like much of an ally lately.  The U.S. failed to provide either diplomatic or military aid to the Philippines when Beijing’s ships occupied a rich off-shore region belonging to Manila.  Similarly, it has failed to provide diplomatic assistance to Tokyo in the growing territorial dispute with China.

The confidence that Beijing;s military expresses when it criticizes the long-standing, appropriate, and globally beneficial relationship between Japan and America speaks volumes about the diminished state of the U.S. Navy, and the dramatic increase in China’s strategic and conventional armed strength, especially that of its naval forces.
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Confirming the contention made by the NEW YORK ANALYSIS OF POLICY & GOVERNMENT in the past, the Pentagon has now (rather belatedly) stated that Beijing’s military budget is considerably in excess of that publicly stated by that government. In its latest review of China’s military budget, it maintains that at least 20% more is actually spent.

THE NEW YORK ANALYSIS OF POLICY & GOVERNMENT continues to  maintain that the actual figure is higher still.  The People’s Liberation Army derives income from numerous private companies it owns or has substantial interest in. Further, it does not include numerous expense items that other governments include in their military budget.

As Beijing’s armed strength continues to grow and America’s continues to fade (the U.S. Navy is at its lowest level since before World War I) further acts of aggression, both in actual force of arms and in diplomatic forums, can be expected.

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The diminished state of the United States Navy is correctly seen as a dire national security threat.  But it also has ramifications in other areas, as well.

Seth Cropsey, who has studied the plight of the U.S. Navy, writes in his book “Mayday, the decline of American naval supremacy” that countering the drug trade will be far more difficult due to the neglect of U.S. maritime power. “U.S. seapower in the form of both naval and Coast Guard ships search the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and eastern Pacific for drug runners…Illegal drugs that enter the United States divert money from the economy, encourage corruption among law-enforcement authorities, generate crime from the source of origin to their end use in the United States…and are a bountiful source of revenue for foreign criminal groups that conduct the trade. According to U.S. government officials, the money from this illicit harvest is now becoming a source of revenue for criminal groups that may sympathize with al Qaeda. Military commanders…are more blunt.  They see an increasing presence in the region of Islamic extremists with illegal drugs to sell and a nurturing of ties between jihadists and often less ideological but equally profit-minded drug cartels of Latin and Central America.”
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Combined with the Obama Administration’s extremely lax enforcement of America’s southern border, the vanishing presence of the U.S. Navy renders America virtually unprotected from the rabid collection of criminals, terrorists and others who intend to commit harm to the citizenry.

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Obama’s carbon plans are based on ideology, not facts

The Obama Administration has emphasized what they describe as the problem of income inequality.  They may have trouble reconciling that with their climate change policy.

The US Chamber of Commerce estimates that, at least through 2030, the cost of compliance with the White House’s new carbon regulations will lower the U.S. GDP by $50 million annually, leading to 224,000 fewer jobs each year, force American consumers to pay $289 billion in additional electrical rates annually, and lower total disposable income for U.S. households by $586 billion.

The burden this will place on both the poor and the middle class will be enormous, as the choice between putting food on the table, paying the rent or the mortgage, vs. heating, lighting and cooling their homes becomes very real. Many will also find that, due to a significantly depressed economy, their jobs will no longer exist.

This enormous cost to the already struggling U.S. citizenry will buy only a 1.8% reduction in total domestic carbon emissions. With that microscopic level of accomplishment, it is difficult to deny that a more intelligent approach would be to accelerate research into advanced technologies that could eventually provide far more results for far less cost.

The problem is that the extremist positions of the Administration and many of those advocating  environmental measures based more on symbolism than actual achievable results  do so based more on ideological goals, including a resentment of the free market, than on true concern for the health of the planet.
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There is no possibility for the foreseeable future that “green” energy can replace, at any cost,  that which will be lost if some traditional fuel sources are taken off line. That’s not a debate, that’s a fact.  Attempts to do so will seriously damage the already fragile U.S. economy.

Nor are international implications being considered by the green-at-any-cost advocates. Moscow funds its vast military buildup through its energy sales; taking U.S. coal off line will increase the Kremlin’s profits and provide greater assets to spend on its already massive armed forces. Europe will be more dependent than ever on Putin.

Middle Eastern oil will become far more essential, leading to greater strength to those that loath the west.

Concern for the health of the planet is appropriate. Radical solutions based on ideology, not facts, are harmful both to the cause of a clean environment and to the lives of the citizenry.

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Administration’s odd idea of “victory”

Vice President Joe Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have claimed at various times that Mr. Obama’s premature withdrawal of America’s troops from Iraq was a “victory” for the President.  Similarly, they have supported and encouraged the release of terrorists from Guantanamo Bay.

A review of the facts questions that assertion. Al Qaeda and Iran threaten to take over Iraq, a nation that stood on the path of becoming a peaceful, tolerant state at the end of the Bush Administration. Not perfect and facing major challenges, but on its way to becoming a responsible member of the world community, it is now in danger of being in the clutches of terrorists and a terrorist state in the absence of a countervailing western influence.  The battle to take over Iraq has been led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was released from Guantanamo Bay by Mr. Obama in 2009.

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An odd concept of success.

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Constitutional loyalty

The time has come for Americans to make a vital decision: Does their ultimate loyalty rest with the Constitution, or with Barack Obama?

Throughout the current administration’s tenure in office, the White House’s lack of respect for the law, and indeed, the constitution itself, has been blatant. It began with the refusal to prosecute a clear case of voter intimidation in the 2008 election, proceeded to the harassment of political opponents by the IRS, and was magnified by the practice of only enforcing the provisions of the Affordable Care Act that were politically expedient.  It has been evident in matters such as the release of the Taliban 5, an open violation of 22 US Code Section 2371 (assistance to terrorist organizations) Section 8111 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2014 (prohibiting the use of funds for the release of Guantanamo Bay prisoners) and Section 1035 of the Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014 (requiring notification to Congress before Guantanamo prisoner release.) It is manifest in the Administration’s failure to enforce portions of the law pertaining to illegal immigration.

Guarantees not seriously questioned since the enactment of the Constitution, such as freedom of speech, have been subjected to a number of body-blows during the Obama years. The recent attempt to place federal monitors in newsrooms  is a salient example.

These are not disputes about policy issues.  They are descriptions of criminal violations of the law and a clear disregard of constitutional mandates.  Nor are they the unfortunately typical abuses of the rough and tumble practice of politics, where hard-nosed elected officials seek to extract retribution on individual opponents. Other presidents have, at times, violated the law and engaged in constitutionally questionable acts (Richard Nixon comes readily to mind.)  But throughout the annals of American history, no chief executive has done so as systematically, intentionally, repeatedly and in areas so vital and substantial as Mr. Obama.

Several presidents have illegally used federal agencies to harass individuals whom they tangle with. But none of Mr. Obama’s predecessors have ever engaged in the large-scale assault on an entire political movement the way the current White House has.

Almost every President has been annoyed at Congress when there have been disagreements between the two branches of government.  And, truth be told, there have been many incidents when past presidents, through executive orders or otherwise, have sought to accomplish some goals inappropriately. Never before, however, has any president openly and brazenly defied the entire constitutional scheme of checks and balances the way this president has.

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This battle for the soul of the nation is often mistaken as disagreements over individual issues. Far too many of those favoring the President’s agenda in spending, foreign policy, healthcare or the environment  look the other way as he achieves his goals by governing in ways that violate the Constitution.

That is a dangerous path. Once the Constitution has been relegated secondary to the will of the president, the protections it has provided for centuries will be endangered forever, and could well become permanently lost.  Other nations, including those clearly tyrannical, have constitutions providing rights, and those rights are utterly ignored.

The difference in America has always been that, despite our political differences or disagreements over specific policies, we have always held Constitutional provisions and Constitutional rights sacrosanct, above the fray of political fighting. As a people, we have, in the past, realized that no one issue or set of issues or even loyalty to a political party or to a president is worth jeopardizing the Constitution.

In our adversarial governing system, it is expected that the opposition party or the legislative branch would check the power of the presidency.  But in the poisonous environment of today’s Washington, GOP objections are portrayed by a heavily biased media  merely as partisan arguing, and the Senate is led by those who are more loyal to this president than to the Constitution.

Piece by piece, the foundation of constitutional government is being replaced by the mere will of the president. Republican attempts to thwart the unlawful exercise in power grabbing by Mr. Obama will always be viewed as political wrangling.  It is, therefore, up to the Democrat Party to make the painful decision to demonstrate its loyalty to the Constitution by rejecting the President’s attempts to eviscerate the document that has guaranteed American freedom for so long.

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Overcriminalization

Individuals who commit crimes such as murder, rape, robbery, fraud, or assault should be punished to the full extent of the law.  But what of the honest citizen who unintentionally breaks a statute he didn’t even realize existed?

Increasingly, regulatory agencies are applying criminal penalties to infractions of measures many people and businesses didn’t even realize existed.  Paul Larkin of the Heritage foundation has criticized this practice, known as “overcriminalization.” It’s a particular problem with overbearing federal agencies.

Larkin provides several examples:

“Abner Schoenwetter, for example, spent six years in a federal prison for importing Honduran lobsters that were packed in plastic—as opposed to cardboard—boxes and for supposedly violating a Honduran regulation (later declared invalid by the Honduran Attorney General) that made his lobsters marginally too small.

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“Lawrence Lewis, a building engineer, wound up charged with a felony and pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for following the procedure he had been instructed to use to clean up toilet overflows at a military retirement home that, totally unbeknownst to him, wound up shunting the refuse into the Potomac River.”

According to the Heritage study, “The increasing use of criminal laws as regulatory penalties amplifies the risk that people, especially those who own or manage small businesses, may be deterred from pursuing legitimate activities due to the fear that they could commit a crime by unwittingly crossing one of the many obscure lines drawn by statutes, regulations, and ordinances.”

As the federal bureaucracy grows increasingly large and increasingly intrusive in our daily affairs, the risk of incurring criminal penalties for activities that seem completely innocent grows ever greater. This is an issue which requires immediate attention in Washington.

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White House seen as tilting away from Israel

The announcement this month that Washington would work with and provide financial assistance for the new Palestinian government, comprised of Fatah and Hamas, a terrorist organization, has sparked extraordinary criticism both from the Israeli government as well as Americans concerned over a further incidence of the White House providing assistance to a terrorist organization.

As was seen in the release of the Taliban 5 and the purported gun running to Syrian rebel groups allied with Islamist organizations from the Benghazi facility in 2012, U.S. assistance will again be rendered to those associated with terrorism in violation of American law.

Along with establishing new relationships with Islamist organizations throughout the world, American relations with Israel continue to deteriorate, and many believe it has yet to reach its nadir. Israel national news  recently editorialized that “…eventually (probably after the 2014 congressional elections), you can expect the Obama administration’s rhetoric and actions against Israel to become increasingly hostile.”

The publication points to statements and positions taken by key White House appointees viewed as being significantly anti-Israel:

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel was one of just four senators who refused to sign a Senate letter in support of the Jewish nation. He has steadfastly opposed unilateral sanctions against Iran to deter the progress of its nuclear weapons program, which most believe is aimed at Israel.

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Obama’s representative to the United Nations, Samantha Powers, once called for an American intervention to halt what she referred to as Israeli “genocide.”

Secretary of State John Kerry has repeatedly blamed Israel for the lack of progress in the region.

While cutting aid to Israel by 5%, the President has increased aid to Syrian rebels and previously sent weapons to Egypt while it was controlled by Islamists.

Israel has legitimate cause for concern.

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Jobs outlook remains bleak

Once again, what appears to be good news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not hold up under scrutiny.

According to the BLS, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 217,000 in May, and the unemployment rate held at 6.3 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, food services, and transportation and warehousing.” Much has been made of the fact that the number of jobs now equals that which existed before the recession hit.  A more thorough examination reveals a sharply different picture.

An analysis by Rep. David Camp, notes that “seven out of eight new employees under President Obama have been part-time employees.”

The Economic Policy Institute ntes that “young college graduates face an unemployment rate of 8.5%, compared with 5.5% in 2007, and an underemployment rate of 16.8%, compared with 9.6% in 2007.” Many of those grads who are working are in positions that don’t require degrees.
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2013 saw a record high number of U.S. workers on disability. The number of long-term unemployed continues to be an unresolved crisis. These displaced workers count for 37.7% of all unemployed.

The labor force participation rate continues to drop precipitously. In the past year alone, it has dwindled from 63.4% to 62.8%, a 36 year low.

The replacement of quality, career-level positions with part-time jobs may appear statistically equal, but the reality is far different.  Statistics which ignore the labor force participation rate and the quality of positions available are not an effective barometer of the true employment outlook.

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Highway Trust Fund Abuse

The U.S. Department of Transportation estimates that the Highway Trust Fund “Will encounter a shortfall before the end of fiscal 2014.” That’s certainly bad news for America’s crumbling roads,  and wholly unnecessary.

It’s certainly not due to an overall lack of federal revenue.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, (CBO) federal revenues are expected to grow by about 9 percent this year, to $3.0 trillion. Taxes going directly into the Highway Trust Fund are substantial. Where is the money going?

Stimulus money that could have remedied many deficiencies was instead routed to failed “green” projects like Solyndra, mass transit, tourist enterprises, and political allies of the White House. According to an Economist  report, “a relatively small share of the bill was actually devoted to infrastructure. Just $64 billion, or 8% of the total, went to roads, public transport, rail, bridges, aviation and wastewater systems…”
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According to a CATO Institute study  “more than 20 percent of federal gas taxes [which are supposed to go to highways] are spent on transit, and there is no guarantee that the remaining 80 percent goes for highways, as Congress often diverts some of that money to such things as bike paths, national park visitor centers, museums, and other local pork barrel projects.” The study also notes that “federal subsidies to [mass] transit are about 80 times as great, per passenger mile, as federal subsidies to highways.”

America’s roads and bridges are in urgent need of repair.  The time has come to stop politicizing the use of the Highway Trust funds and apply its dollars appropriately.