Secretary of State Michael Pompeo again last week labeled China a “central threat” to the United States and western democracies for at least the next five years. The world is witnessing the communist giant act more aggressively against democratic movements in Hong Kong, the island of Taiwan, and the Western world order, in general. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s long-term agenda, reaffirmed at the recent CCP Fifth Party Plenum meeting in late October, calls for remaking the world in China’s image and ensuring it is devoid of American leadership. China’s Navy will play a significant role in the upcoming battle for world dominance.
The CCP leadership recognizes the significant role that oceans, which once served as insurmountable safety barriers before World War I, still serve today. The modernized Chinese Navy is well-funded and ramping up its visibility in the Indian Ocean, conducting maritime training exercises in the Mediterranean, and sailing regularly off the American coastline. Given the nuclear stalemate among the world’s great powers, low intensity conflicts on the high oceans may be the next likely area to see clashes occur between China and the West.
There are lessons to be learned about the importance of naval power from the Imperial German Navy of WWI as the world comes to terms with China’s expanding aggression overseas in the 21st century. By 1914, Grand Admiral Alfred von Turpitz, head of the German Imperial Navy, had built his country’s fleet into a world-class armada. He created what is known as the “Tirpitz Risk Theory.” It argues that if a navy reaches a certain level of development in relation to the naval capabilities of an enemy state, in this case Great Britain in WWI, it can successfully deny that navy a victory in war. Turpitz said it only requires enough capability to inflict significant damage to ensure the opposing force loses its dominance on the high seas. Although Tirpitz ‘s Risk Theory failed in the end, and the British Royal Navy won, there are take away lessons for the West today. The battle for naval supremacy in WWI resulted in a maritime arms race that eventually left Britain stronger and no longer at risk from other naval powers, such as France.
Today China, like von Turpitz’s Imperial Navy, is building a blue water Navy with the intention of denying the US and other Western navies freedom of navigation on the high seas and, it appears, access to critical, commercial maritime passageways. If the West wants to achieve a future victory, in a low intensity conflict or a large hot war, it must ensure that China cannot deny the West dominance on the high seas or restrict global oceanic commerce. The CCP is using the faulty Tirpitz Risk Theory in its strategy for dominance. However, it will fail only if the rest of the world is active in its response to Beijing’s threat. Like Great Britain, the West must ensure it navies are well-prepared to deny China a future victory. China has an overseas base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa and basing rights elsewhere that provide access to the Indian ocean. It is expanding its global presence every year.
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DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.
Photo: China Navy live-fire military exercises.